ANALYSIS OF SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN AN INDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODEL OF A THREATENED WILDLIFE SPECIES

Sensitivity analysis—determination of how prediction variables affect response variables—of individual‐based models (IBMs) are few but important to the interpretation of model output. We present sensitivity analysis of a spatially explicit IBM (HexSim) of a threatened species, the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO; Strix occidentalis caurina) in Washington, USA. We explored sensitivity to HexSim variables representing habitat quality, movement, dispersal, and model architecture; previous NSO studies have well established sensitivity of model output to vital rate variation. We developed “normative” (expected) model settings from field studies, and then varied the values of ≥ 1 input parameter at a time by ±10% and ±50% of their normative values to determine influence on response variables of population size and trend. We determined time to population equilibration and dynamics of populations above and below carrying capacity. Recovery time from small population size to carrying capacity greatly exceeded decay time from an overpopulated condition, suggesting lag time required to repopulate newly available habitat. Response variables were most sensitive to input parameters of habitat quality which are well‐studied for this species and controllable by management. HexSim thus seems useful for evaluating potential NSO population responses to landscape patterns for which good empirical information is available.     

动态投入产出模型的反向求解及灵敏度分析

在经济理论研究和实践中 ,动态投入产出模型是一类有广泛应用前景的模型 .本文讨论了动态投入产出模型的反向递推解法及灵敏度分析 ,给出了目标年的总产出向量和各期的最终净需求向量发生变动时 ,对计划期内国民经济各部门总产出产生影响的计算公式 ,揭示了动态投入产出系统初始条件和外生变量对国民经济各部门总产出的传递效应 .计算实例的结果表明 ,所给的公式是正确的、可行的 .     

A METHOD FOR SIMPLIFYING LARGE ECOSYSTEM MODELS

Abstract Simplifying large ecosystem models is essential if we are to understand the underlying causes of observed behaviors. However, such understanding is often employed to achieve simplification. This paper introduces two model simplification methods that can be applied without requiring intimate prior knowledge of the system. Their utility is measured by the resulting values of given model diagnostics relative to those of the large model. The first method is a simple automated procedure for nondimensionalizing large ecosystem models, which identifies and eliminates terms that have little effect on model diagnostics. Some of its limitations are then addressed by the rate elimination method, which measures the relative importance of model terms using least‐squares regression. The methods are applied to a model of the nitrogen cycle in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia. The rate elimination method provided more insights into the causal relationships built into the model than the nondimensionalizing method. It also allowed the reduction of the model's dimension. Thus it is a useful first step in model simplification.     

生产函数构成的树形图分析方法

作为生产函数几何表示的尝试，本文通过对生产函数要素构成的分析，归纳出一种用树形图表示生产函数的方法，这种方法直观形象，能清晰地表示各要素之间的结构关系和指标关系．     

求一类多元多峰函数全局极小的区间斜率方法

Based on the interval analysis, an interval slope method is proposed for finding all global minimizers of a several peaks function f on domain X^0包含于R^n, which is given by interval slope discard tests and interval extension of objective function.Numerical results of representative test functions show that this method is practical and effective.     

从离散速度模型到矩方法

为了求解动理学方程,我们通过研究一维情形下的离散速度模型,发现通过对离散速度点使用自适应技术可以直接得到Grad矩方程组.作为一个统一的认识,矩方程组可以看作是对离散速度点自适应的离散速度模型,而离散速度模型可以看作是取特别形式的"矩"的矩方程组.这使得我们可以在一致的框架下来理解离散速度模型和矩方法,而不是将它们对立起来.为了建立这样的一致框架,最近在[2]中发展的正则化理论是根本性的.     

一类特殊拟可微函数最优化问题的线性化方法

In this paper,we consider the problem of minimizing a particular class of quasi-differentiable functions:min{f(x)=max min fij(x)}.An algorithm for this problem is giver.At each iteration by solving quadratic programming subproblems to generate search directions,its convergence is proved in the sense of inf-stationary points.     

求解极大极小问题的一种稳定的对数障碍函数法

给出求解极大极小问题的一种对数障碍函数法．为了消除牛顿方程的病态,本文引进Ｂｒｏｙｄｅｎ 和Ａｔｔｉａ 在求解约束优化问题时,为克服罚函数的病态所采取的一种策略,提高了算法的稳定性．对子问题的结束准则等对算法的效率有重要影响的技术细节,本文也进行了研究．     

用在线梯度法训练积单元神经网络的收敛性分析

<正>1引言仅由加和单元构成的传统前向神经网络已经广泛应用于模式识别及函数逼近等领域.但在处理比较复杂的问题时,这种网络往往需要补充大量的隐节点,这样就不可避免地增     

求解约束极小极大问题的一种K─S函数的近似迭代法

借助于极大熵方法和逼近法，给出了一种求解约束极小极大问题的K－S函数近似迭代法，同时讨论算法的有关收敛性．     

一种SENSE模型下信号重建的类-Dykstra近点有效算法

本文研究了SENSE模型下从部分傅里叶数据中信号的重建问题.利用类Dykstra近点方法和Bregman迭代方法,我们获得了一种SENSE模型下信号重建的加速类-Dykstra近点有效算法,并证明了该算法的收敛性.实验仿真显示,该方法比经典的分裂Bregman方法有效.     

一种求解跳系数椭圆标量方程的渐近展开方法的误差分析

本文研究了具有跳系数(或多尺度性质)的椭圆型PDEs问题.利用渐近展开方法,将具有多尺度性质的PDEs模型问题解耦为若干光滑系数(或单尺度性)的PDEs问题进行求解,获得了和经典线性有限元方法在.0意义下同样的误差阶,表明了该方法的有效性.     

OPERATOR-SPLITTING GALERKIN METHOD FOR ONE KIND OF OIN REACTION MODEL FOR THE POLLUTION IN GROUNDWATER

§ 1　 IntroductionIn the subsurface,the contaminations move with the groundwater where many kindsof chemical reactions take place[1 ] .The mathematical model to describe one kind of oin re-action in subsurface m M1 +r M2 k2k1r M2 +m M1 is given by[2 ]s1 t-dΔs1 =f1 ,x∈Ω ,t∈ J,( 1 .1 a)s2t-dΔs2 =f2 ,x∈Ω ,t∈ J,( 1 .1 b)c1 t+ρs1 t-DΔc1 =0 ,x∈Ω ,t∈ J,( 1 .2 a)c2t+ρs2t-DΔc2 =0 ,x∈Ω ,t∈ J,( 1 .2 b)whereΩ R2 is a bounded domain with smooth boundary.…     

一反应扩散模型解的有限元方法和误差分析

１引言在地下水运移过程中,污染物（溶质）随地下水在含水层中运移,并常常发生各种化学反应．文献［１－３］等提出并论述了三种化学物质（如Ｍ１,Ｍ２和Ｍ３）之间发生的一类化学反应．文献［４,５］等建立和描述了这类反应的数学模型（Ｐ）．文献［６,７」的作者首次对模型（Ｐ）进行了理论上的定性分析,主要是利用上,下解方法,算子半群理论和Ｓｏｂｏｌｅｖ空间的般人定理等论证了模型（Ｐ）的整体古典解的存在唯一性和渐近性质,文［６,７］也讨论了整体解的极限性态和收敛性估计．此外,文［８,９］等也就模型（Ｐ）的一类特…     

GLOBAL ANALYSIS TO A KIND OF COMPETITION MODEL OF E-COMMERCE SITES

In this paper, we present a competition modei of e-commerce sites with the property of "better for better". Then we qualitatively analyze the special case of two dimensions. So we prove that there does not exist limit cycle, in the first quadrant of the phase plane and all trajectories tend to some singular points.     

单物种人口模型指数隐式Euler方法的振动性

本文研究了用以描述单物种人口模型的延迟Logistic方程的数值振动性.对方程应用隐式Euler方法进行求解,针对离散格式定义了指数隐式Euler方法,证明了该方法的收敛阶为1.根据线性振动性理论获得了数值解振动的充分条件.进而还对非振动数值解的性质作了讨论.最后用数值算例对理论结果进行了验证.     

STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A TRITROPHIC FOOD CHAIN MODEL WITH AN ADAPTIVE PARAMETER FOR THE PREDATOR

Abstract The study of three‐species communities have become the focus of considerable attention, and because the studies of ecological communities start with their food web, we consider a tritrophic food chain model comprised of the prey, the predator, and the super‐predator. The classical assumption of the domino effect is supplemented with an adaptive parameter for the predator (in the absence of prey). Thus, the model exhibits an equilibrium with the predator‐top‐predator steady state, which is a saddle point. Dynamical behaviors such as boundedness, existence of periodic orbits, persistence, as well as stability are analyzed. The long‐term coexistence of the three interacting species is addressed, and the stability analysis of the model shows that the biologically most relevant equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever it satisfies a certain criterion. Practical implications are explored and related to real populations.     

一类非线性四阶双曲方程扩展的混合元方法的超收敛分析

对一类非线性四阶双曲方程利用双线性元Q_(1)及Nedelec's元建立一个扩展的协调混合元逼近格式.首先证明了逼近解的存在唯一性.其次,基于上述两个单元的高精度结果,给出了插值和投影之间的误差估计,再利用对时间t的导数转移技巧和插值后处理技术,在半离散和全离散格式下分别导出了原始变量u和中间变量v=-△u在H~1模及中间变量q=▽u,σ=-▽(△u)在(L~2)~2模意义下单独利用插值和投影所无法得到的具有O(h~2)和O(h~2+τ~2)阶的超收敛结果.最后通过数值算例,表明逼近格式是行之有效的.这里,h和τ分别表示空间剖分参数及时间步长.     

UNIFORMLY A POSTERIORI ERROR ESTIMATE FOR THE FINITE ELEMENT METHOD TO A MODEL PARAMETER DEPENDENT PROBLEM

This paper proposes a reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator for the finite element methods for the beam problem. It is proved that the error can be bounded by the computable error estimator from above and below up to multiplicative constants that do neither depend on the meshsize nor on the thickness of the beam.     

一类半线性反应对流扩散模型的特征差分方法和分析

1.引 言如下形式的半线性反应对流扩散方程组分别在生命科学、化学和环境科学中,有大量的应用模型[1-3].其中文献[2-6]分别讨论了方程组(1.1)的各种特殊模型的定性性质.文献[6]讨论了一类线性模型的流线扩散有限元分析.作者在文[7]中,分别利用标准有限元方法和交替方向有限元方法,对(1.1)的一些特殊情形作了数值分析.