我国城乡居民消费与经济增长区域差异性的实证分析

遴选1996-2012年我国(除重庆、港、澳、台外)30个省(市)城镇和农村居民消费支出及国内生产总值的面板数据,基于非参数核估计方法,建立固定效应半参数面板数据模型,对我国东、中、西部城乡居民消费与经济增长关系的区域差异性进行实证分析.计算显示,运用半参数面板数据模型显著提高了估计的精度.分析结果表明,不论是城镇居民消费还是农村居民消费,对经济增长的促进作用均是东部高于中部、中部高于西部;且农村居民消费对经济增长的促进作用又大于城镇居民消费.     

上海城市和农村居民消费结构分析

根据上海城市和农村居民消费结构的统计数据,对居民的八项消费支出进行因子分析,从而比较分析上海城市和农村居民消费结构的状况及变化趋势,并对上海城乡居民的消费差异做出评价。     

Modelling Rural Police Patrol

Police patrol has been modelled extensively in the urban environment, but these urban models cannot usually be applied to rural settings. The length of travel times and the nature of calls for service in rural, wide-area, low-population regions demand special consideration. In this paper, we develop a Markov model that explicitly incorporates travel times and priority calls to analyse police patrol policies in rural areas. Results of the model using data from Washtenaw County, Michigan, USA, are given to show its utility.     

Improving emergency service in rural areas: a bi-objective covering location model for EMS systems

Emergency medical service (EMS) systems are public services that often provide the first line of response to urgent health care needs within a community. Unfortunately, it has been widely documented that large disparities in access to care exist between rural and urban communities. While rural EMS is provided through a variety of resources (e.g. air ambulances, volunteer corps, etc.), in this paper we focus on ground ambulatory care. In particular our goal is to balance the level of first-response ambulatory service provided to patients in urban and rural areas by locating ambulances at appropriate stations. In traditional covering location models the objective is to maximize demand that can be covered; consequently, these models favor locating ambulances in more densely populated areas, resulting in longer response times for patients in more rural areas. To address the issue of fairness in semi-rural/semi-urban communities, we propose three bi-objective covering location models that directly consider fairness via a secondary objective. Results are discussed and compared which provide a menu of alternatives to policy makers.     

基于投入产出方法的中国城乡居民收入分析

目前居民收入分配问题,特别是城乡居民收入差距问题已成为中国社会面临的需要高度重视和尽快解决的问题.在2007年全国投入产出表的基础上,利用多个部门的相关数据将我国居民收入划分为农村居民收入和城镇居民收入两个收入群体,对两个群体在各部门的收入分配情况进行了分析.同时,利用投入产出局部闭模型和宫泽乘数方法,对农村居民收入和城镇居民收入之间的拉动关系以及各部门最终需求的变动对农村和城镇居民收入的影响进行了定量分析.     

市场化、城镇化与城乡收入差距——基于空间动态面板模型的实证分析

采用1997-2007年我国城乡收入差距的省际面板数据,通过构建空间动态模型,采用SCBB估计方法,分析了市场化和城镇化进程对城乡收入差距的影响效应.实证结果表明,现阶段城镇化、市场化有利于缩小城乡收入差距,对缩小城乡收入差距的作用明显.研究结论认为市场化、城镇化对缩小城乡收入差距有积极意义,相邻省份城乡收入差距在空间关系作用下有趋同发展之势.在实证研究基础上本文对十八大以来政府主导城镇化进程提出方向性政策建议.     

农村人口城市化中的时间配置决策研究

在Becker时间配置模型基础上,构建农村居民在城镇化进程中的行为决策模型,农村入口时间资源分配在农村活动、城市活动、教育活动和闲暇上,根据福利水平最大化的基本原则,分析农村人口城市化决策中影响因素.解释了农村人口城镇化和逆城镇化现象,发现城乡差异、教育影响、时间间接成本等因素是影响人们时间效率的主要因素,为提高全民福利水平,政府的农村政策应以增加农民收入为主,城市政策集中于城市基础设施和公共服务布局合理性方面.     

Applications of Artificial Neural Networks to combat simulations

As a result of reduced budgets and personnel levels, the Department of Defense has increased reliance on combat simulations for such diverse areas as training, testing, planning, and analysis. Each area has its own set of needs, goals, and objectives for designing future generations of combat simulation models. However, budget constraints alone mandate the development of multipleuse combat models. The bottom line is that future generations of combat models need to be faster, have higher fidelity and larger scale than current models. Research into emerging technologies for approaches to make computer simulations more effective and efficient is an essential ingredient to developing successful future generations of combat models. One emerging technology that has such potential is Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Potential applications of ANN to combat simulation modeling are discussed. The main results of the author's dissertation Artificial Neural Network Metamodels of Stochastic Computer Simulations [1] are discussed along with the ramifications on combat modeling and recommendations for future research.     

Effects of variation theory approach in teaching and learning of algebra on urban and rural students’ algebraic achievement and motivation

This study investigates the effect of utilizing variation theory approach (VTA) on students' algebraic achievement and their motivation in learning algebra. The study used quasi-experimental non-equivalent control group research design. It involved 114 Form Two students in four intact classes (two classes were from an urban school, another two classes from a rural school). The first group of students from each school learnt algebra in class which used the VTA, while the second group of students in each school learnt algebra through conventional teaching approach. Two-way analysis of covariance and two-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) were used to analyse the data collected. The result of this study indicated that the use of VTA has significant effect on both urban and rural students' algebraic achievement. There were evidences that VTA has significant effect on rural VTA students' overall motivation in its five subscales: attention, relevance, confidence, satisfaction and interest but it was not so for urban VTA students' motivation. This study provides further empirical evidence that utilization of variation theory as pedagogical guide can promote the teaching and learning of Form Two Algebra topics in urban and rural secondary school classrooms.     

我国环境污染与居民恶性肿瘤发病及死亡的灰色关联度分析

收集2003-2012年三个区域:全国区域、城市区域、农村区域的恶性肿瘤发病及死亡率和污染物数据,采用灰色关联分析方法计算了不同区域与不同污染物的综合关联度,并对污染物致恶性肿瘤死亡的潜伏期作了定量分析.研究结果表明:1)氨氮排放量和二氧化硫对我国三个不同区域居民恶性肿瘤发病和死亡率的影响最大;2)污染物与恶性肿瘤发病率的关联度跟区域无关,但是污染物与恶性肿瘤死亡率的关联度城市明显大于农村,污染物与恶性肿瘤死亡率的关联度男性明显大于女性;3)氨氮和二氧化硫导致居民恶性肿瘤死亡的潜伏期分别为:2和1年.     

社会和谐系数的构建与评价

基于城乡恩格尔系数、基尼系数、社会保障水平系数与城乡人口比,定义城镇、农村与合成的社会和谐系数.此定义考虑了中国的城乡二元结构的特殊国情,能够从经济学的层面较为精确地定量描述国家或地区的社会和谐状态,可用于横向和纵向比较.     

Exploring gender factors related to PISA 2003 results in Iceland: a youth interview study

Students’ mathematical achievement in Iceland, as reported in PISA 2003, showed significant and (by comparison) unusual gender differences in mathematics: Iceland was the only country in which the mathematics gender gap favored girls. When data were broken down and analyzed, the Icelandic gender gap appeared statistically significant only in the rural areas of Iceland, suggesting a question about differences in rural and urban educational communities. In the 2007 qualitative research study reported in this paper, the authors interviewed 19 students from rural and urban Iceland who participated in PISA 2003 in order to investigate these differences and to identify factors that contributed to gender differences in mathematics learning. Students were asked to talk about their mathematical experiences, their thoughts about the PISA results, and their ideas about the reasons behind the PISA 2003 results. The data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed using techniques from analytic induction in order to build themes and to present both male and female student perspectives on the Icelandic anomaly. Strikingly, youth in the interviews focused on social and societal factors concerning education in general rather then on their mathematics education.     

基于消费函数模型的居民消费能力与趋势的实证分析

对浙江省城乡居民消费能力的重要指标应用计量经济学,建立城乡居民的消费函数模型,并用定性分析与定量研究相结合的方法,就城乡居民消费能力与趋势进行计量经济的实证分析.进而探讨城乡居民消费水平的差距,寻求持续稳定提高城乡居民消费水平的主要途径.研究表明所建消费函数模型具有较高的拟合精度,且很好的反映了城乡居民消费能力的发展现状和趋势.对促进城乡居民消费能力的协调发展,缩小城乡居民消费水平差距等具有一定的现实意义.     

新型城镇化背景下劳动力转移对农户生计策略选择的影响分析

农村劳动力转移与农户生计的可持续发展息息相关。从家庭决策的角度出发,劳动力的转移改变了农户发展生计的"能力",影响着农户对各种资本的获得和使用,有助于农户快速地积累和形成生计资本组合并呈多样化。劳动力转移这一行为和经历构成了家庭成员进行新的生计选择的背景和前提条件,在资本变动和要素约束下,农户进行着不同的生产决策,并形成不同类型的生计策略。基于此,本研究以甘肃各地州市农民人均纯收入的构成为基础,探讨甘肃省农村居民可行的生计策略选择;并以农村非农劳动力流动与城镇流动为对象,定量描述农村劳动力转移、城镇化率、教育水平、人均耕地面积对不同生计策略的影响。结果表明:农村非农劳动力转移与以工资性收入为主的生计策略选择高度相关,累积的农村向城市转移劳动力与以家庭经营性收入为主的生计策略选择高度相关,当采取混合型生计策略时,农村劳动力转移并不利于混合型收入的提高。     

Naval Combat Logistics Support System

The subject matter is the sustainability of naval forces in combat and the intimate relationships between tactics and logistics. The observation is made that it has been a long time since the United States Navy has worried about logistics in combat and that to some extent combat logistics have become ‘somebody else's’ responsibility. It is argued that combat logistics is inescapably the force commander's responsibility and its dimensions are sketched. Necessarily, the amount of data and calculation is extensive if an accurate picture of the combat logistics states of the force are to be maintained and predictions of future states are to be made. It is in the predictions of future states that the interactions between tactics and logistics become most apparent. The data storage and retrieval and computational aspects suggest a microprocessor-based support system. BGLCSS (battle group logistics co-ordinator support system) is a program of combat logistics data, event routines, and algorithms designed to allow the logistics co-ordinator to track and predict force combat logistics states and provide timely and meaningful insight to the force commander.     

我国农村居民消费现状及影响因素分析

我国经济虽然实现了高速增长,但城乡居民消费差距不仅没有缩小,反而在继续扩大,由占人口绝对多数的农村居民的消费水平过低所直接导致的我国消费需求不足已成为目前我国宏观经济中最突出的矛盾。本文在农村居民消费结构的基础上,分析影响居民消费的其他原因,以及这些因素与消费的相关程度,建立回归模型,并采用2007年中国农村居民的收入消费等统计资料,对消费状况进行实证分析。最后本文针对我国农村居民现实的消费状况提出针对性的建议。     

中国经济增长对农村贫困减缓影响的实证研究

基于2007-2017年中国31个省际数据,通过构建面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)研究经济增长对贫困减缓影响的连续变化过程.研究结果表明:经济增长与农村贫困之间的关系呈现出非线性的特征.在模型的门槛值前后,经济增长对农村贫困程度的影响始终表现为抑制,说明了经济增长有助于农村贫困减缓.城乡收入差距和农业总产值都显著地起到了促进贫困减缓的作用.财政支农在短期内可促进贫困减缓,但统计上不显著,在长期内不利于贫困减缓.政府若长期通过财政支出扶持农村地区,可能会使农民对政府产生依赖和劳动惰性,从而不利于贫困减缓.     

财政支出对城乡居民消费影响的实证分析

随着改革的深度推进,我国经济发展进入新常态.经济新常态下最紧迫的问题之一是消费不足,对财政支出与居民消费之间的关系进行分析,这不仅有助于推动政府支出结构合理化,也对增大消费在经济发展中的比重,推动经济合理的发展具有重要的意义.实证分析表明,财政总支出、基本建设支出和民生支出对城乡居民消费水平具有挤入效应;行政支出对农村居民消费有挤出效应,对城镇居民消费有挤入效应.     

江苏经济社会关联性的SAM乘数分析

通过江苏社会核算矩阵(SAM)乘数分解,研究了江苏经济社会关联联系.主要研究结论:第一,要素和部门账户受到外生冲击时,对其它账户产生的交叉影响大于经过系统循环后对自身的影响;第二,作为基础性产业的农业、建筑业等对江苏具有较大的影响力,以旅游业、餐饮业以及一些社会服务业为代表的第三产业对经济发展正发挥着龙头拉动作用;第三,农业产出、土地外资本收入和农村居民收入的提高对非技术人员要素收入的依赖性较强;第四,技术人员要素初始投入的增加对城镇居民收入的提高具有正向效应.