社会投入与社会发展关系实证分析:1995-2005

社会活动的投入是社会发展的动力,社会发展目标的实现,需要大规模的要素投入来支撑.在这篇文章中,我们采集了大量的社会经济统计数据,对1995-2005期间我国社会发展过程的要素投入与社会发展成果之间的关系进行了分析.全文主要内容有:社会投入体系的整体评估,社会发展成果的综合评价,社会投入与社会发展成果关系的数量分析,及在此基础上形成的相关结论.     

定常非线性人口发展方程的解及其渐近性质

一、引言 人口发展过程的数学模型是人口发展过程分析预测和定量控制的基础。关于人口发展过程的确定性连续模型,对线性人口发展系统已有不少结果。实践证明:在人类发展的某一历史阶段中,人口发展过程可以用线性方程较准确地刻画。但是线性人口发展方程忽略了社会人口与其生存环境之间的制约关系。从长期的观点来看,研究非线性人口发展模型有着重要意义     

中国旅游产业发展的人口因素分析

三十年来,中国的人口总量得到了有效的控制,人口结构出现了许多新的特点,人口数量和结构的这些变化对中国旅游业发生了怎样的影响呢,对此,本研究做了些初步的探讨.基于1995年-2014年间的我国旅游产业和人口的两组指标数据,采用典型相关分析法,进行了中国人口因素对旅游产业的影响分析.在典型相关变量的解释方面,充分利用了典型载荷和交叉典型载荷,对旅游产业和人口这两个经济现象的整体之间以及整体与个别之间的相关信息进行了全面挖掘和解读.结果显示,劳动力在产业间的转移、人口规模和结构的变化均与旅游业的发展高度相关,它们之间的变化趋势表现为相互之间的正影响关系,中国老龄化进程与旅游业的发展高度正相关.     

基于AHP层次分析法和群决策法的人口素质测评研究

现代社会专业化分工日趋细密、技术技能要求日趋尖端,对人口素质的要求益发凸现在一个举足轻重的地位.本文通过AHP指标权重分配方法,使用一个完整的分层指标体系将中国人口素质进行量化,将主观与客观结合起来,形成统一的单一指数.模型显示,在考虑各指标权重的背景下,我国人口素质在各指标的共同作用下,人口综合素质持续增长,没有出现人口素质下降的年份,1978年以来综合人口素质水平上升了10.64倍,我国人口素质增长情况令人鼓舞.     

听障群体成人依恋与社会问题解决的实证研究——以自我概念清晰度为中介

研究以确定自我概念清晰度在成人依恋和社会问题解决之间的作用为出发点,探讨三者之间的关系.通过问卷法,从全国三所特殊教育高校共选取380名听障生为研究对象,用层级回归对听障生的成人依恋、社会问题解决和自我概念清晰度三个变量之间的关系进行探讨并拟合因果关系模型.研究结果表明,依恋回避与社会问题解决五个维度和自我概念清晰度都有显著相关,而依恋焦虑只与非功能型社会问题解决倾向相关.自我概念清晰度在成人依恋和非功能型社会问题解决之间中介作用显著,而在成人依恋和功能型社会问题解决之间没有中介作用.     

基于居民感知的博览会社会影响研究:以中国-亚欧博览会为例

展会对举办地的重大社会影响,已引起人们极大的关注.而作为与展会相关的重要利益相关者之一,举办地居民的感知和态度对于展会发展具有重要的意义.从居民感知的角度出发,以首届中国-亚欧博览会为例,在建立居民社会影响感知指标的基础上,通过聚类方法把社区居民分为三类,结合人口统计学数据分析乌鲁木齐市居民不同的感知特征,最后运用回归分析法探讨了不同维度因子感知与居民总体感知的关系,研究不同居民的利益诉求.     

我国居民收入、人口、教育、财政政策和货币政策与居民消费模型的实证分析

本文从影响消费的各个因素:居民收入、人口、教育、国家宏观政策等着手,对各因素进行了相关分析,运用多元统计中的岭回归估计法建立消费模型。从定量和定性分析的角度,分析了我国居民消费水平、居民收入、人口增长率、各层次教育、国家财政支出和银行利率等相关因素之间相互影响的数量变动关系和内在规律,就如何提高居民消费水平促进经济协调发展提出若干对策。     

大股东关系经济后果实证研究——基于公司绩效和盈余质量的评价视角

本文关注了中国社会文化中的"关系"特质在上市公司的体系特征及其影响。通过对上市公司前十大股东的调查和分析,我们发现约有50%的上市公司中,其前十大股东之间存在联结关系。在对大股东联结关系进行分类统计的基础上,本文进一步检验了大股东关系的经济后果。研究发现,大股东关系的存在增加了上市公司股东网络的社会资本,社会资本的正向效果比较明显,从而使得大股东之间有联结关系的上市公司,其财务绩效和盈余质量显著高于大股东之间不存在联结关系的公司。     

矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学仿真研究

矿产资源密集型区域经济发展与人口增长、资源消耗、环境污染和体制滞后之间的矛盾日益凸显.如何协调他们之间的关系成为区域经济可持续发展的当务之急.对区域内各子系统之间的相互关系和内部作用机制进行了分析,以黑龙江省为例构建了矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的系统动力学模型并对该区域的标准发展模式、传统发展模式、准绿色发展模式和绿色发展模式进行仿真模拟.结果表明:人口和谐发展、资源高效利用、环境污染有效控制、严格实施生态制度监管以及大力加强区域间融合的绿色发展模式是当前矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展模式的最佳选择.     

基于GWR模型的河南省人口分布的影响因素研究

近年来,人口作为一种基本信息已成为目前研究的热点问题之一.人口分布可能受自然,经济,社会,政治等诸多因素的影响.因此,人口分布的研究对于了解不同类型区域的人口资源与经济发展之间的关系,因地制宜地发展本地经济具有重大意义.课题以河南省统计年鉴数据为基础,研究河南省人口分布的影响因素.具体来说,首先利用Surfer软件的可视化技术研究了河南省人口数量的空间变化特征.其次,利用近年来发展起来的地理加权回归模型对河南省人口分布的影响因素进行了定量分析.通过上述分析提取有效信息,从而为制定合理的人口政策和实现人口的有序流动提供必要的理论支持.     

Continuos social decision procedures

Classical social decision procedures are supposed to map lists of preference orderings into binary relations which describe society ‘preferences’. But when there are infinitely many alternatives the resulting plethora of possible preference orderings make it impossible to differentiate ‘nearby’ preference relations. If the preference information used to make social decisions is imperfect, society may wish to implement a continuous social decision procedure (SDP) so that nearby preference configurations will map into nearby social preference relations. It is shown here that a continuity requirement can severely restrict the admissible behavior of a social decision procedure. Furthermore, a characterization of continuous SDPs is presented which facilitates the examination of such procedures and their relation to various voting mechanisms.     

Correlating temporal communication patterns of the Eclipse open source community with performance and creativity

This paper studies the temporal communication patterns of online communities of developers and users of the open source Eclipse Java development environment. It measures the productivity of each community and seeks to identify correlations that exist between group communication characteristics and productivity attributes. The study uses the TeCFlow (Temporal Communication Flow) visualizer to create movie maps of the knowledge flow by analyzing the publicly accessible Eclipse developer mailing lists as an approximation of the social networks of developers and users. Thirty-three different Eclipse communities discussing development and use of components of Eclipse such as the Java Development Tools, the different platform components, the C/C++ Development Tools and the AspectJ extension have been analyzed over a period of six months. The temporal evolution of social network variables such as betweenness centrality, density, contribution index, and degree have been computed and plotted. Productivity of each development group is measured in terms of two indices, namely performance and creativity. Performance of a group is defined as the ratio of new bugs submitted compared with bugs fixed within the same period of time. Creativity is calculated as a function of new features proposed and implemented. Preliminary results indicate that there is a correlation between attributes of social networks such as density and betweenness centrality and group productivity measures in an open source development community. We also find a positive correlation between changes over time in betweenness centrality and creativity, and a negative correlation between changes in betweenness centrality and performance.This paper was tied for Best Paper, NAACSOS (North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Science) Annual Conference 2005, June 26–28, Notre Dame. Yared H. Kidane obtained a B.Sc. from Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia in Statistics and a M.Sc. in Information Technology specializing in engineering and management of information systems with honors from Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden in June 2005. Yared completed his master’s thesis as an exchange student at MIT. He is currently working for Verizon Wireless as an analyst in the reporting and analysis section. Peter A. Gloor is a research fellow both at the MIT Center for Coordination Science and the Center for Digital Strategies at Tuck at Dartmouth and chief scientist at iQuest Analytics. Previously, he was a partner with Deloitte and PwC. He obtained a Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Zurich in 1989, and was a Post-Doc at the MIT Lab for Computer Science.     

将AHP分析法与北京市流动人口抽样调查数据相结合进行流动人口分层的可行性研究

随着经济和社会的发展,中国正发生着深刻的变化,这种变化深深地影响着日益增长的流动人口群体.流动人口已不再是以往高度同质化的群体,在流动人口中逐渐发生着复杂的阶层分化和流动.力图通过AHP指标权重分配方法,使用一个完整的分层指标体系将流动人口的经济状况和流动原因、生活状况、教育和培训三大方面进行量化,将主观与客观结合起来,结合形成统一的单一指数,为下一步研究的开展打下坚实的定量基础.     

Persistent inequality and social relations: An intergenerational model

This paper studies the influence of individual social capital on the persistence of socioeconomic inequality. The set of social relations constitute a form of capital that provides the individual with a wide range of resources. Social capital interacts with other forms of capital, particularly with human capital, to enhance inequality. The overlapping-generations model proposed here focuses on the long-term investment processes in human and social capital. When these effects are considered, a society may end up divided into two groups. The first comprises people stuck in a trap of low intergenerational mobility resources. The second group includes people with increasing levels of education and social capital. Within the last group, income inequalities persist due to initial differences in social capital.     

网络众包社区服务质量感知对用户知识行为的影响——一个多重中介作用模型

网络众包社区是互联网环境下大众相互协作共同完成特定任务的信息交流平台。本文首先从环境质量、交互质量和结果质量3个方面来评价网络众包社区用户感知服务质量,再引入用户沉浸体验、社会临场感与社群卷入作为中介变量,探讨用户感知服务质量对其知识搜索和知识贡献的影响机理。基于216份调查问卷进行实证检验,结果表明:(1)环境质量、交互质量和结果质量均是构成用户对网络众包社区服务质量感知的关键维度;(2)沉浸体验在服务质量感知与知识搜索之间所起的中介作用更大,而社会临场感在服务质量感知与知识贡献之间所起的中介作用更大;(3)社群卷入在沉浸体验与知识贡献之间起着部分中介作用,而在社会临场感与知识贡献之间起着完全中介作用。     

The journey to engaged customer community: Evidential social CRM maturity model in Twitter

We investigate the company use of Twitter as a platform for social customer relations management (SCRM) to find that message type and follower growth follow an identifiable maturity model. Studying longitudinal Twitter data from 73 Standard and Poor's companies, we find that companies map into one of two distinct maturity stages as reflected in the content of company‐generated messages. The first maturity stage consists of branding, where the focus is on customer acquisition up to a certain volume, at the expense of their engagement. The second is social care, where the focus is on retaining customers and increased engagement. We further find that companies have relatively little control over their maturity stage and that investing in social care in the first stage, aiming to increase engagement, is not effective. Proper understanding and recognition of the Twitter SCRM maturity model will allow companies to assess their methods and processes according to SCRM best practices.     

WILDLIFE RESERVES,POPULATIONS, AND HUNTING OUTCOME WITH SMART WILDLIFE

We consider a hunting area and a wildlife reserve and answer the question: How does clever migration decision affect the social optimal and the private optimal hunting levels and population stocks? We analyze this in a model allowing for two‐way migration between hunting and reserve areas, where the populations’ migration decisions depend on both hunting pressure and relative population densities. In the social optimum a pure stress effect on the behavior of smart wildlife exists. This implies that the population level in the wildlife reserve tends to increase and the population level in the hunting area and hunting levels tend to decrease. On the other hand, the effect on stock tends to reduce the population in the wildlife reserve and increase the population in the hunting area and thereby also increase hunting. In the case of the private optimum, open‐access is assumed and we find that the same qualitative results arise when comparing a situation with and without stress effects, but of course at a higher level of hunting. We also show that when net social benefits of hunting dominate the net social benefits of populations, wildlife reserves are optimally placed in areas of low carrying capacity and vice versa.     

基于不同社会责任承担模式的闭环供应链决策研究

供应链成员企业对不同社会责任承担模式有自己的偏好选择,探讨供应链成员企业承担的社会责任对供应链决策的影响.对于可能的任何一种社会责任承担模式,企业承担社会责任均会使产品销售价格降低、需求量增加、回收量增加.承担企业社会责任虽然会使自身收益减少,但其他成员和系统的收益却会增加,有利于增加消费者剩余,实现社会福利最大化.当承担的社会责任程度较大时,供应链成员企业能保持长期合作关系,使供应链正常运行.当承担的社会责任程度都较小时,由于供应链成员企业之间对社会责任承担模式的偏好存在矛盾将难以维持供应链合作,最终会导致供应链断链.