基于可靠性指标的冷贮备可修系统与单部件可修系统关系分析

讨论冷贮备可修系统与单部件可修系统在可靠性指标方面的关系,具有理论价值和实际意义.首先讨论由两部件组成的冷贮备可修系统与单部件可修系统的关系,假设冷贮备可修系统的每个部件的工作寿命都服从一般分布,部件故障后的修理时间服从指数分布,得到在稳态可用度、稳态故障频度、瞬时可用度和瞬时故障频度等指标方面冷贮备可修系统等价于相应的单部件可修系统,推导了若干个定理和推论,给出了相应结论;然后探讨带有冷贮备的多部件串联系统在求解可靠性指标时转化为相应单部件系统的思路:将带有一个冷贮备的多部件串联可修系统等价为一般的串联系统,进一步等价单部件可修系统.为工程上广泛存在的带有冷贮备的多部件系统的可靠性指标计算提供基础及相应公式.     

冷贮备冗余系统可靠度预计的递归算法

基于贮备科系统的特点,运用折方法得出一种用计算机求冷贮备冗余系统可靠度的方法,并将该计算方法用于两个计算实例。     

三同型部件冷贮备可修系统可靠性的密度演化方法

本讨论了三个同型部件、一个修理工组成的冷贮备可修系统的可靠性，所假定的部件的寿命和修理时间均服从一般分布，所使用的方法是密度演化法．     

有优先权且工作故障与贮备故障后的修理时间不相同的温贮备系统的可靠性分析

为了解决开关寿命为连续随机变量且部件工作故障的修理时间与贮备故障后的修理时间各不相同的问题,利用Markov过程理论和Laplace变换方法,研究了有优先权的两不同型部件和两不同修理工组成的温贮备可修系统.假定部件的工作寿命、贮备寿命、工作故障的修理时间和贮备故障的修理时间均服从不同的指数分布,得到了该系统的可靠度Laplace变换和系统的首次故障前平均时间的解析表达式.     

两部件热贮备系统的可靠性分析

本文研究了由两个不同部件组成的热贮备系统。利用Markov更新过程和交替更新过程的方法,求得了(i)系统首次失效时间与其后停工时间的联合分布;(ii)点利用率;(iii)修理工在任一时刻忙的概率;(iv)在(0,t]中系统失效数的分布及其均值。     

修理工带休假的两同型部件冷贮备可修系统

假定部件工作寿命,修理时间和修理工休假时间均服从一般分布,利用马尔可夫骨架过程理论,研究了修理工带休假的两同型部件冷贮备可修系统的可靠性。     

有优先权三不同部件温贮备可修系统可靠性分析

针对由三个不同部件,一个完全可靠的开关和一个修理设备组成的温贮备可修系统,建立了部件的工作寿命,贮备寿命,工作故障后的修理时间和贮备故障后的修理时间均服从不同参数的指数分布的数学模型,利用Markov型可修系统的研究方法,并采用MATLAB软件给出了该系统的首次故障前的平均时间、可用度和故障频率等可靠性指标的表达式.     

两个同型部件温贮备系统的几何过程模型

利用可靠性理论,研究了两个同型部件和一个修理工组成的可修型温贮备系统.假设两个部件的工作寿命、贮备寿命、故障后的修理时间和贮备故障后的修理时间均服从不同的指数分布,在工作故障和贮备故障都不能"修复如新"的情况下,运用几何过程理论、拉普拉斯变换和补充变量方法得出该模型的一些可靠性指标.     

两部件冷备可修系统可靠性的马氏骨架方法

本文利用马氏骨架过程理论讨论了冷贮备可修系统的可靠性.该模型由两个不同型部件,一个修理工组成,部件的寿命和修理时间均服从一般分布.     

开关寿命连续型冷贮备可修系统的可靠性分析：两不同部件构成的可修系统

本对由两个不同部件组成的,而且开关寿命为连续随机变量的冷贮备可修系统作了研究,建立了该类系统的一般模型,给出了系统可靠度R(t）的L-变换和首次故障前的平均时间的结果。     

A proposed model for co-optimization of energy and reserve in competitive electricity markets

Operating reserve assessment has become increasingly important in the new utility environment in which ancillary services have been assigned a value. This paper presents a procedure for compulsory provision of spinning reserve using a risk-constrained cost-based mechanism. In this mechanism, the electrical energy and spinning reserve are dealt with simultaneously because the provision of reserve cannot be decoupled from the provision of energy. Generators are paid the opportunity cost associated with their reduced energy because compulsion is financially unattractive among them. The transmission system reliability is considered in a simplified manner when computing composite system risk. In the proposed structure, the Independent System Operator (ISO) is responsible for reliability management and is thus responsible for providing sufficient reserve on behalf of the users of the system. The method is applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS Rev. 140) is used to solve the mixed integer nonlinear co-optimization problems.     

Two-stage network constrained robust unit commitment problem

For a current deregulated power system, a large amount of operating reserve is often required to maintain the reliability of the power system using traditional approaches. In this paper, we propose a two-stage robust optimization model to address the network constrained unit commitment problem under uncertainty. In our approach, uncertain problem parameters are assumed to be within a given uncertainty set. We study cases with and without transmission capacity and ramp-rate limits (The latter case was described in Zhang and Guan (2009), for which the analysis part is included in Section 3 in this paper). We also analyze solution schemes to solve each problem that include an exact solution approach and an efficient heuristic approach that provides tight lower and upper bounds for the general network constrained robust unit commitment problem. The final computational experiments on an IEEE 118-bus system verify the effectiveness of our approaches, as compared to the nominal model without considering the uncertainty.     

利用Weibull分布对飞机某部件的金属材料的疲劳寿命的可靠性估计

本文在Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ分布下对飞机的某关键部件的金属材料的疲劳寿命进行可靠性估计，并给出了部分可靠度和可靠寿命的估计结果．     

电力系统可靠性的蒙特卡洛方法

本文首先对中国科学技术大学管理科研楼电力系统可靠度评估建立了线性传感器模型。由于线性传感器可靠度评估是一个#P问题,没有多项式时间的算法。所以本文运用了蒙特卡罗方法,考虑到未加改进的蒙特卡洛方法对于解决本身可靠度很高的系统时的效率非常低,本文使用了广泛应用于网络可靠性的RVR(Recursive Variance Reduction)方法,给出了可靠度的测算结果。     

Managing performance and power consumption in a server farm

We examine the problem of managing a server farm in a way that attempts to satisfy the conflicting objectives of high performance and low power consumption. A subset of servers is designated as ‘reserve’. The reserves are powered up when the number of jobs in the system is sufficiently high, and are powered down when that number is sufficiently low. Powering up takes an interval of time during which the reserves consume power but do not serve jobs. The question of how to choose the number of reserves, and the up and down thresholds, is answered by analyzing a suitable queueing model and minimizing an appropriate cost function. Heuristics and numerical results are also presented.     

铁路应急设施非概率可靠性选址优化研究

为解决小样本、贫信息下铁路应急资源储备点的可靠性选址问题,创新性地将选址-路径问题与区间非概率可靠性方法结合起来,考虑灾情发生后应急设施点在可接受的时间范围内响应受灾点的需求能力及其稳定程度,采用区间值度量路段阻抗,基于区间非概率可靠性理论及区间运算规则,提出路径的非概率可靠性度量及可靠最短路径选择方法;建立基于区间时间阻抗下可靠最短路径的无容量设施选址模型,提出约束条件限制的Monte Carlo改进算法,确定了铁路资源储备点选址的最优方案。实例表明,本文的优化方案能更好地保证救援的时间可靠性,改进的求解算法具有更小的时间复杂度,有效地缩短了运算时间,改善了解的质量。本文的方法与模型体系对于实现铁路应急设施可靠性选址,为决策者提供决策支持,提高铁路应急响应能力具有重要的指导意义。     

Reliability analysis of k-out-of-n: F balanced systems with multiple functional sectors

In this paper, new concepts of balanced systems are proposed based on real engineering problems. The system under study consists of l groups and each group has n functional sectors. The conception of balance difference is proposed for the first time. It is assumed that unbalanced systems are rebalanced by either forcing down some working units into standby or resuming some standby units into operation. In addition, a case that the forced-down units are subject to failure during standby is studied in this paper. Based on different balanced cases and system failure criteria, two reliability models for balanced systems are developed. The proposed systems have widespread applications in aerospace and military industries, such as wing systems of airplane and unmanned aerial vehicles with balanced engine systems. Markov process imbedding method is used to analyze the number of working units in each sector for each model. Finite Markov chain imbedding approach and universal generating function technique are used to obtain the system reliability for different models. Several case studies are finally presented to demonstrate the new models.     

Planning the production of a fleet of domestic combined heat and power generators

This paper describes a planning problem, arising in the energy supply chain, that deals with the planning of the production runs of micro combined heat and power (microCHP) appliances installed in houses, cooperating in a fleet. Two types of this problem are described. The first one is the Single House Planning Problem (SHPP), where the focus is on supplying heat in the household. The second one combines many microCHPs into a Fleet Planning Problem (FPP) and focuses on the mutual electricity output, while still considering the local heat demand in the individual households. The problem is modeled as an ILP. For practical use a local search method is developed for the FPP, based on a dynamic programming formulation of the SHPP.     

On Hidden Markov Processes with Infinite Excess Entropy

We investigate stationary hidden Markov processes for which mutual information between the past and the future is infinite. It is assumed that the number of observable states is finite and the number of hidden states is countably infinite. Under this assumption, we show that the block mutual information of a hidden Markov process is upper bounded by a power law determined by the tail index of the hidden state distribution. Moreover, we exhibit three examples of processes. The first example, considered previously, is nonergodic and the mutual information between the blocks is bounded by the logarithm of the block length. The second example is also nonergodic but the mutual information between the blocks obeys a power law. The third example obeys the power law and is ergodic.     

Differential games with noise-corrupted measurements

In this paper, readily computable strategies for zero-sum, linear-quadratic differential games with noise-corrupted measurements are developed. Of particular significance is the fact that the governing differential equations no longer require the solution of an often difficult nonlinear, two-point boundary-value problem, but again satisfy the separation principle of linear-quadratic optimal control. The implications of the payoff relationships are considered.In a subsequent paper, we will apply the theory developed in this paper to a detailed example of a pursuit-evasion game. We discuss a missile and an airplane system where the missile supported by its launch platform has perfect state measurements and the airplane has noise-corrupted measurements.