Global stability of two-group SIR model with random perturbation

In this paper, we discuss the two-group SIR model introduced by Guo, Li and Shuai [H.B. Guo, M.Y. Li, Z. Shuai, Global stability of the endemic equilibrium of multigroup SIR epidemic models, Can. Appl. Math. Q. 14 (2006) 259–284], allowing random fluctuation around the endemic equilibrium. We prove the endemic equilibrium of the model with random perturbation is stochastic asymptotically stable in the large. In addition, the stability condition is obtained by the construction of Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our mathematical findings.     

The long time behavior of DI SIR epidemic model with stochastic perturbation

In this paper, we present a DI SIR epidemic model with two categories stochastic perturbations. The long time behavior of the two stochastic systems is studied. Mainly, we show how the solution goes around the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of deterministic system under different conditions.     

Strategic measures in optimal control problems for stochastic sequences

Controlled discrete–time stochastic processes axe studied using the convex–analytic approach. Some new properties of strategic measures spaces are established, particular Markov models are considered. The meaningful example is presented.     

Hopf bifurcation of nonlinear incidence rates SIR epidemiological models with stage structure

1 ModelsIn standard epidethelogical modeis (ase [ll) the incidence rate (the rate of new infections)is bilinear in the infecire frartion and the susceptible fraction. There are a variet}' of reasonsthat the standard bilinear fOrm may reqfore modification (see [2. 3]). On the other hand, thereare some kinds of diseases which only spread or have more opportunities to be spread in adults(such as gollorrhea. s}philis. etc.). Consequently, realistic anaI\.sis of disease transmissiun in apopulation…     

Stability analysis of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with general incidence rate

In this paper, a stochastic delayed epidemic model with a generalized incidence rate is proposed and discussed. The positivity of solutions is established. A linearized form of the model is given and the stability conditions of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by using the technique of Lyapunov functionals.     

Dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate

In this paper, the dynamics of an impulsive stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate are analyzed. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is proved by constructing the equivalent system without pulses. The threshold which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease is obtained. The global attraction of disease-free periodic solution is addressed. Sufficient condition for the existence of a positive periodic solution is established. These results are supported by computer simulations.     

Local stability of an SIR epidemic model and effect of time delay

We describe an SIR epidemic model with a discrete time lag, analyse the local stability of its equilibria as well as the effects of delay on the reproduction number and on the dynamical behaviour of the system. The model has two equilibria—a necessary condition for local asymptotic stability is given. The proofs are based on linearization and the application of Lyapunov functional approach. An upper bound of the critical time delay for which the model remains valid is derived. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the effect of time delay which tends to reduce the epidemic threshold. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An NSFD scheme for a class of SIR epidemic models with vaccination and treatment

An non-standard finite difference scheme is employed to discuss a class of SIR epidemic model with vaccination and treatment. The dynamical properties of the discretized model are then analysed. The results demonstrate that the discretized epidemic model is dynamically consistent with the continuous model since it maintains essential properties of the corresponding continuous model, such as positivity property and boundness of solutions, equilibrium points and their local stability properties.     

Numerical modelling of an SIR epidemic model with diffusion

A spatial SIR reaction-diffusion model for the transmission disease such as whooping cough is studied. The behaviour of positive solutions to a reaction-diffusion system with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are investigated. Sufficient conditions for the local and global asymptotical stability are given by linearization and by using Lyapunov functional. Our result shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the contact rate is small. These results are verified numerically by constructing, and then simulating, a robust implicit finite-difference method. Furthermore, the new implicit finite-difference method will be seen to be more competitive (in terms of numerical stability) than the standard finite-difference method.     

Hybrid stochastic epidemic SIR models with hidden states

This paper focuses on realistic hybrid SIR models that take into account stochasticity. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the Beddington–DeAngelis incidence rate, and a Holling type II functional response. Given that many diseases can lead to asymptomatic infections, this paper looks at a system of stochastic differential equations that also includes a class of hidden state individuals, for which the infection status is unknown. Assuming that the direct observation of the percentage of hidden state individuals being infected, $\alpha \left(t\right)$, is not given and only a noise-corrupted observation process is available. Using nonlinear filtering techniques in conjunction with an invasion type analysis, this paper shows that the long-term behavior of the disease is governed by a threshold $\lambda \in \mathbb{R}$ that depends on the model parameters. It turns out that if $\lambda <0$ the number $I\left(t\right)$ of infected individuals converges to zero exponentially fast (extinction). However, if $\lambda >0$, the infection is endemic and the system is persistent. We showcase our theorems by applying them in some illuminating examples.     

Permanence of a delayed SIR epidemic model with general nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SIR model with two delays and general nonlinear incidence rate is considered. The local and global asymptotical stabilities of the disease‐free equilibrium are given. The local asymptotical stability and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the endemic equilibrium are also established by analyzing the distribution of the characteristic values. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the permanence of the system are given. Some numerical simulations to support the analytical conclusions are carried out. At last, some conclusions are given. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global stability of a generalized epidemic model

The competitive exclusion principle is one of the most interesting and important phenomena in both theoretical epidemiology and biology. We show that the equilibrium in which only the strain with the maximum basic reproductive number exists is globally asymptotically stable by using an average Lyapunov function theorem and some dynamical system theory. This result is anticipated by H.J. Bremermann and H.R. Thieme (1989) [6] where they showed that the equilibrium is locally stable — the global result has not been established previously.     

Global behaviour of an SIR epidemic model with time delay

We study the stability of a delay susceptible–infective–recovered epidemic model with time delay. The model is formulated under the assumption that all individuals are susceptible, and we analyse the global stability via two methods—by Lyapunov functionals, and—in terms of the variance of the variables. The main theorem shows that the endemic equilibrium is stable. If the basic reproduction number ?₀ is less than unity, by LaSalle invariance principle, the disease‐free equilibrium E_s is globally stable and the disease always dies out. By applying the integral averaging theory, we also investigate the stability in variance of the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类非线性染病年龄结构模型渐近性态

研究一类具有非线性染病年龄结构SIS流行病传播数学模型动力学性态,得到疾病绝灭和持续生存的阈值--基本再生数.当基本再生数小于或等于1时,仅存在无病平衡点,且在其小于1的情况下,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定,疾病将逐渐消除;当基本再生数大于1时,存在不稳定的无病平衡点和唯一的局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点,疾病将持续存在.     

Dynamics of a stochastic SIR model with both horizontal and vertical transmission

A stochastic mathematical model with both horizontal and vertical transmission is proposed to investigate the dynamical behavior of SIR disease. By employing theories of stochastic differential equation and inequality techniques, the threshold associating on extinction and persistence of infectious diseases is deduced for the case of the small noise. Our results show that the threshold completely depends on the stochastic perturbation and the basic reproductive number of the corresponding deterministic model. Moreover, we find that large noise is conducive to control the spread of diseases and the persistent disease in deterministic model may eliminate ultimately due to the effect of large noise. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic SIRI epidemic model with relapse

In this paper, we study the dynamics of a stochastic Susceptible-Infective-Removed-Infective (SIRI) epidemic model with relapse. By constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution to the model. Moreover, sufficient conditions for extinction of the disease are also obtained.     

Dynamic behavior of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with media coverage

The main purpose of this paper is to explore the global behavior of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with media coverage. The value of this research has 2 aspects: for one thing, we use Markov semigroup theory to prove that the basic reproduction number can be used to control the dynamics of stochastic system. If , the stochastic system has a disease‐free equilibrium, which implies the disease will die out with probability one. If , under the mild extra condition, the stochastic differential equation has an endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable. For another, it is known that environment fluctuations can inhibit disease outbreak. Although the disease is persistent when R₀ > 1 for the deterministic model, if , the disease still dies out with probability one for the stochastic model. Finally, numerical simulations were carried out to illustrate our results, and we also show that the media coverage can reduce the peak of infective individuals via numerical simulations.     

一类具有非线性传染率的时滞SIR模型的分析

分析并建立具有时滞及非线性传染率的SIR传染病模型.通过分析在无病平衡点和正平衡点处的特征方程,可得到在这两个平衡点处的局部渐近稳定性,然后我们得到了系统在两个平衡点处的全局渐近稳定性,最后我们证明了系统的持久性.