Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients.     

Classification of a screened data into one of two normal populations perturbed by a screening scheme

In normal classification analysis, there may be cases where the population distributions are perturbed by a screening scheme. This paper considers a new classification method for screened data that is obtained from the perturbed normal distributions. Properties of each population distribution is considered and the best region for classifying the screened data is obtained. These developments yield yet another optimal rule for the classification. The rule is studied from several aspects such as a linear approximation, error rates, and estimation of the rule using the EM algorithm. Relationships among these aspects as well as investigation of the rule’s performance are also considered. The screened classification ideas are illustrated in detail using numerical examples.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

The tail probability of the product of dependent random variables from max-domains of attraction

In this article, we investigate the tail probability of the product of finitely many non-negative dependent random variables. They follow distributions from max-domains of attraction of extreme value distributions and their dependence is modeled via a multivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distribution. For each of the Fréchet, Gumbel and Weibull cases, we obtain an explicit asymptotic formula for the tail probability of the product. Our study extends a few known results in the literature.     

The multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution

The main purpose of this paper is the study of the multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution. It is defined as the convolution of two independent multivariate Student t distributions. Some representations of this distribution as the mixture of known distributions are shown. An important result presented in the paper is the elliptical condition of this distribution in the special case of proportional scale matrices of the Student t distributions in the defining convolution. For the bivariate Behrens-Fisher problem, the authors propose a non-informative prior distribution leading to highest posterior density (H.P.D.) regions for the difference of the mean vectors whose coverage probability matches the frequentist coverage probability more accurately than that obtained using the independence-Jeffreys prior distribution, even with small samples.     

Optimal training sample allocation and asymptotic expansions for error rates in discriminant analysis

The sample-based rule obtained from Bayes classification rule by replacing the unknown parameters by ML estimates from a stratified training sample is used for the classification of a random observationX into one ofL populations. The asymptotic expansions in terms of the inverses of the training sample sizes for cross-validation, apparent and plug-in error rates are found. These are used to compare estimation methods of the error rate for a wide range of regular distributions as probability models for considered populations. The optimal training sample allocation minimizing the asymptotic expected error regret is found in the cases of widely applicable, positively skewed distributions (Rayleigh and Maxwell distributions). These probability models for populations are often met in ecology and biology. The results indicate that equal training sample sizes for each populations sometimes are not optimal, even when prior probabilities of populations are equal.     

Optimizing random scan Gibbs samplers

The Gibbs sampler is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo routine for generating random variates from distributions otherwise difficult to sample. A number of implementations are available for running a Gibbs sampler varying in the order through which the full conditional distributions used by the Gibbs sampler are cycled or visited. A common, and in fact the original, implementation is the random scan strategy, whereby the full conditional distributions are updated in a randomly selected order each iteration. In this paper, we introduce a random scan Gibbs sampler which adaptively updates the selection probabilities or “learns” from all previous random variates generated during the Gibbs sampling. In the process, we outline a number of variations on the random scan Gibbs sampler which allows the practitioner many choices for setting the selection probabilities and prove convergence of the induced (Markov) chain to the stationary distribution of interest. Though we emphasize flexibility in user choice and specification of these random scan algorithms, we present a minimax random scan which determines the selection probabilities through decision theoretic considerations on the precision of estimators of interest. We illustrate and apply the results presented by using the adaptive random scan Gibbs sampler developed to sample from multivariate Gaussian target distributions, to automate samplers for posterior simulation under Dirichlet process mixture models, and to fit mixtures of distributions.     

Predictive Inference for the Elliptical Linear Model

This paper derives the prediction distribution of future responses from the linear model with errors having an elliptical distribution with known covariance parameters. For unknown covariance parameters, the marginal likelihood function of the parameters has been obtained and the prediction distribution has been modified by replacing the covariance parameters by their estimates obtained from the marginal likelihood function. It is observed that the prediction distribution with elliptical error has a multivariate Student'st-distribution with appropriate degrees of freedom. The results for some special cases such as the Intra-class correlation model, AR(1), MA(1), and ARMA(1,1) models have been obtained from the general results. As an application, theβ-expectation tolerance region has been constructed. An example has been added.     

Principal points of a multivariate mixture distribution

A set of n-principal points of a distribution is defined as a set of n points that optimally represent the distribution in terms of mean squared distance. It provides an optimal n-point-approximation of the distribution. However, it is in general difficult to find a set of principal points of a multivariate distribution. Tarpey et al. [T. Tarpey, L. Li, B. Flury, Principal points and self-consistent points of elliptical distributions, Ann. Statist. 23 (1995) 103-112] established a theorem which states that any set of n-principal points of an elliptically symmetric distribution is in the linear subspace spanned by some principal eigenvectors of the covariance matrix. This theorem, called a “principal subspace theorem”, is a strong tool for the calculation of principal points. In practice, we often come across distributions consisting of several subgroups. Hence it is of interest to know whether the principal subspace theorem remains valid even under such complex distributions. In this paper, we define a multivariate location mixture model. A theorem is established that clarifies a linear subspace in which n-principal points exist.     

Asymptotic expansions in mean and covariance structure analysis

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of parameter estimators in mean and covariance structures are derived. The parameters may be common to, or specific in means and covariances of observable variables. The means are possibly structured by the common/specific parameters. First, the distributions of the parameter estimators standardized by the population asymptotic standard errors are expanded using the single- and the two-term Edgeworth expansions. In practice, the pivotal statistic or the Studentized estimator with the asymptotically distribution-free standard error is of interest. An asymptotic distribution of the pivotal statistic is also derived by the Cornish-Fisher expansion. Simulations are performed for a factor analysis model with nonzero factor means to see the accuracy of the asymptotic expansions in finite samples.     

Sequential order statistics with an order statistics prior

In the model of sequential order statistics, prior distributions are considered for the model parameters, which, for example, describe increasing load put on remaining components. Gamma priors are examined as well as priors out of a class of extended truncated Erlang distributions (ETED), which is introduced along with some properties. The choice of independent priors in both set-ups leads to respective independent, conjugate posterior distributions for the model parameters of sequential order statistics. Since, in practical applications, the model parameters will often be increasingly ordered, a multivariate prior is applied being the joint distribution of common ETED-order statistics. Whatever baseline distribution of the sequential order statistics is chosen, the joint posterior distribution turns out to be a Weinman multivariate exponential distribution. Posterior moments are given explicitly, and HPD credible sets for the model parameters are stated.     

Robust Bayesian prediction and estimation under a squared log error loss function

Robust Bayesian analysis is concerned with the problem of making decisions about some future observation or an unknown parameter, when the prior distribution belongs to a class Γ instead of being specified exactly. In this paper, the problem of robust Bayesian prediction and estimation under a squared log error loss function is considered. We find the posterior regret Γ-minimax predictor and estimator in a general class of distributions. Furthermore, we construct the conditional Γ-minimax, most stable and least sensitive prediction and estimation in a gamma model. A prequential analysis is carried out by using a simulation study to compare these predictors.     

Noncentral matrix quadratic forms of the skew elliptical variables

In this paper, the noncentral matrix quadratic forms of the skew elliptical variables are studied. A family of the matrix variate noncentral generalized Dirichlet distributions is introduced as the extension of the noncentral Wishart distributions, the Dirichlet distributions and the noncentral generalized Dirichlet distributions. Main distributional properties are investigated. These include probability density and closure property under linear transformation and marginalization, the joint distribution of the sub-matrices of the matrix quadratic forms in the skew elliptical variables and the moment generating functions and Bartlett's decomposition of the matrix quadratic forms in the skew normal variables. Two versions of the noncentral Cochran's Theorem for the matrix variate skew normal distributions are obtained, providing sufficient and necessary conditions for the quadratic forms in the skew normal variables to have the matrix variate noncentral generalized Dirichlet distributions. Applications include the properties of the least squares estimation in multivariate linear model and the robustness property of the Wilk's likelihood ratio statistic in the family of the matrix variate skew elliptical distributions.     

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics is studied. It is shown that spacings of generalized order statistics from DFR (IFR) distributions have the CIS (CDS) property. By restricting the choice of the model parameters and strengthening the assumptions on the underlying distribution, stronger dependence relations are established. For instance, if the model parameters are decreasingly ordered and the underlying distribution has a log-convex decreasing (log-concave) hazard rate, then the spacings satisfy the MTP₂ (S- MRR₂) property. Some consequences of the results are given. In particular, conditions for non-negativity of the best linear unbiased estimator of the scale parameter in a location-scale family are obtained. By applying a result for dual generalized order statistics, we show that in the particular situation of usual order statistics the assumptions can be weakened.     

Canonical representation of conditionally specified multivariate discrete distributions

Most work on conditionally specified distributions has focused on approaches that operate on the probability space, and the constraints on the probability space often make the study of their properties challenging. We propose decomposing both the joint and conditional discrete distributions into characterizing sets of canonical interactions, and we prove that certain interactions of a joint distribution are shared with its conditional distributions. This invariance opens the door for checking the compatibility between conditional distributions involving the same set of variables. We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of discrete conditional models, and we show how a joint distribution can be easily computed from the pool of interactions collected from the conditional distributions. Hence, the methods can be used to calculate the exact distribution of a Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, issues such as how near compatibility can be reconciled are also discussed. Using mixed parametrization, we show that the proposed approach is based on the canonical parameters, while the conventional approaches are based on the mean parameters. Our advantage is partly due to the invariance that holds only for the canonical parameters.     

Analytic and numerical analysis of some statistical features of fragmentation processes

In this work, we investigate the following inhomogeneous model of fragmentation with an exponential splitting probability: suppose that an initial particle having a mass x₀>0 (large enough) is broken, with a size-dependent probability , into b>1 pieces. With probability 1−p(x₀), this fragment is left unchanged for ever. The process of fragmentation is repeated recursively for all pieces.Some statistical features are studied, chiefly the fragment size distribution, number of fragments and partition function of the random fragmentation tree. Also, we give details of the numerical analysis of these features.     

Sequences of elliptical distributions and mixtures of normal distributions

Two conditions are shown under which elliptical distributions are scale mixtures of normal distributions with respect to probability distributions. The issue of finding the mixing distribution function is also considered. As a unified theoretical framework, it is also shown that any scale mixture of normal distributions is always a term of a sequence of elliptical distributions, increasing in dimension, and that all the terms of this sequence are also scale mixtures of normal distributions sharing the same mixing distribution function. Some examples are shown as applications of these concepts, showing the way of finding the mixing distribution function.     

Parameter estimation for first-order bifurcating autoregressive processes with Weibull innovations

We study the first-order bifurcating autoregressive process X_t=?X_⌊t/2⌋+?_t with Weibull innovations. Using point process technique, we estimate the model parameter ? and the tail index α in the Weibull distribution and obtain the joint limit distribution of estimators.     

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported.     

Tail order and intermediate tail dependence of multivariate copulas

In order to study copula families that have tail patterns and tail asymmetry different from multivariate Gaussian and t copulas, we introduce the concepts of tail order and tail order functions. These provide an integrated way to study both tail dependence and intermediate tail dependence. Some fundamental properties of tail order and tail order functions are obtained. For the multivariate Archimedean copula, we relate the tail heaviness of a positive random variable to the tail behavior of the Archimedean copula constructed from the Laplace transform of the random variable, and extend the results of Charpentier and Segers [7] [A. Charpentier, J. Segers, Tails of multivariate Archimedean copulas, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100 (7) (2009) 1521–1537] for upper tails of Archimedean copulas. In addition, a new one-parameter Archimedean copula family based on the Laplace transform of the inverse Gamma distribution is proposed; it possesses patterns of upper and lower tails not seen in commonly used copula families. Finally, tail orders are studied for copulas constructed from mixtures of max-infinitely divisible copulas.