Pricing Fixed-Income Securities in an Information-Based Framework

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to introduce a class of information-based models for the pricing of fixed-income securities. We consider a set of continuous-time processes that describe the flow of information concerning market factors in a monetary economy. The nominal pricing kernel is assumed to be given at any specified time by a function of the values of information processes at that time. Using a change-of-measure technique, we derive explicit expressions for the prices of nominal discount bonds and deduce the associated dynamics of the short rate of interest and the market price of risk. The interest rate positivity condition is expressed as a differential inequality. An example that shows how the model can be calibrated to an arbitrary initial yield curve is presented. We proceed to model the price level, which is also taken at any specified time to be given by a function of the values of the information processes at that time. A simple model for a stochastic monetary economy is introduced in which the prices of the nominal discount bonds and inflation-linked notes can be expressed in terms of aggregate consumption and the liquidity benefit generated by the money supply.     

Revenue management for low-cost providers

Low-cost providers have emerged as important players in many service industries, the most predominant being low-cost, or the so-called discount airlines. This paper presents models and results leading toward understanding the revenue management outlook for a discount pricing firm. A framework and model is formulated specifically for the airline industry, but is generalizable to low-cost providers in similar revenue management settings. We formulate an optimal pricing control model for a firm that must underprice to capture a segment of exogenous demand. Two specific model formulations are considered: a continuous deterministic version, and a discrete stochastic version. Structural results are derived for the deterministic case, providing insight into the general form of optimal underpricing policies. The stochastic results support the structural insight from the deterministic solution, and illuminate the effect of randomness on the underpricing policies.     

Joint replenishment and pricing decisions in inventory systems with stochastically dependent supply capacity

In this paper, we study a joint optimization problem of replenishment and pricing for a periodic-review inventory system with random supply capacity. When making replenishment and pricing decisions at the beginning of each period, the firm only knows the supplier’s available capacity in the current period, but does not know what will be the available capacity in future periods. The salient feature of our model is that the random supply capacities for different periods are dependent. Several stochastic dependency structures are considered for the supply capacity sequence, including the one-lag and the multi-lag dependency.     

Dynamic Network-Based Discriminatory Pricing

We study the dynamic pricing decisions for competitive network service providers. We assume that each competing firm follows a three-part pricing scheme, which consists of an ongoing membership fee, a usage fee for communications within the networks, and another usage fee for communications across the networks. The difference between the two usage fees is the network-based price discount that allows price discrimination. We study the firms problems as a differential game and establish the optimal pricing policy as a Nash equilibrium feedback strategy depending on only the network sizes (i.e., the number of subscribers). We compare the dynamic network-based discount with the static discount. In the special case of a uniform calling pattern, we find that the firm network-based dynamic discount is always lower than the static discount; we find also that the firm that has a larger network can offer a bigger discount. These results are useful particularly for managers. To get further insights into the dynamic pricing policies, we explore the case of symmetric competition using numerical simulation.Communicated by G. Leitmann     

Pricing and lot-sizing for a deteriorating item in a periodic review inventory system with shortages

We consider a single product that is, subject to continuous decay, a multivariate demand function of price and time, shortages allowed and completely backlogged in a periodic review inventory system in which the selling price is allowed to adjust upward or downward periodically. The objective of this paper is to determine the periodic selling price and lot-size over multiperiod planning horizon so that the total discount profit is maximized. The proposed model can be used as an add-in optimizer like an advanced planning system in an enterprise resource planning system that coordinates distinct functions within a firm. Particular attention is placed on investigating the effect of periodic pricing jointly with shortages on the total discount profit. The problem is formulated as a bivariate optimization model solved by dynamic programming techniques coupled with an iterative search process. An intensive numerical study shows that the periodic pricing is superior to the fixed pricing in profit maximization. It also clarifies that shortages strategy can be an effective cost control mechanism for managing deterioration inventory.     

基于随机双曲折现的投资消费及效用无差别定价

在随机双曲折现条件下,显式地给出了具有指数函数(CARA)效用的最优跨期消费与投资组合;在非完备市场下,显式给出了基于CARA效用的收益流的效用无差别价格.结果表明:最优投资比例以及收益流的价值不受随机双曲折现因子的影响;在低折扣阶段,本文的最优消费水平高于Merton模型下的对应值,低折扣时期越短或高低折扣值相差越大,消费差距越明显.     

Heuristics for sourcing from multiple suppliers with alternative quantity discounts

In this paper, we analyze the impact of supplier pricing schemes and supplier capacity limitations on the optimal sourcing policy for a single firm. We consider the situation where the total quantity to be procured for a single period is known by the firm and communicated to the supplier set. In response to this communication, each supplier quotes a price and a capacity limit in terms of a maximum quantity that can be supplied to the buyer. Based on this information, the buyer makes a quantity allocation decision among the suppliers and corresponding to this decision is the choice of a subset of suppliers who will receive an order. Based on industry observations, a variety of supplier pricing schemes from the constituent group of suppliers are analyzed, including linear discounts, incremental units discounts, and all units discounts. Given the complexity of the optimization problem for certain types of pricing schemes, heuristic solution methodologies are developed to identify a quantity allocation decision for the firm. Through an extensive computational comparison, we find that these heuristics generate near-optimal solutions very quickly. Data from a major office products retailer is used to illustrate the resulting sourcing strategies given different pricing schemes and capacity limitations of suppliers in this industry. We find for the case of capacity constrained suppliers, the optimal quantity allocations for two complex pricing schemes (linear discount, and incremental units discount) are such that at most one selected supplier will receive an order quantity that is less than its capacity.     

Dynamic pricing,product and process innovation

The question of simultaneous dynamic pricing, product and process investment policies is crucial for manufacturing and high-tech industries. This paper models these policies in an optimal control setting. On the supply side, the firm sets prices, product and process investment levels over time. On the demand side, current demand depends on price and quality. Under an additive separable demand function, dynamic pricing increases with quality and cost. Therefore, both product innovation and process innovation impact the pricing policy. Under a multiplicative separable demand function, dynamic pricing policy follows the dynamic of production cost and is independent of the evolution of product quality. Thus, process innovation is the main determinant of a firm’s pricing policy over time and product innovation has no impact.     

Relative impatience determines preference between contract bargaining and repeated bargaining

In this paper we consider the effect of the `impatience ratio' I (of the worker discount factor to the firm discount factor) on the preferences of the players between two bargaining schemes in an asymmetric information wage bargaining context. The firm has private information about the worker's value and the worker makes wage demands. In the contact bargaining scheme, a wage demand which is accepted in one period is binding for all future periods (and hence the bargaining ends after acceptance of a wage demand). In the repeated bargaining scheme, the parties continue to bargain irrespective of whether the worker has been hired or not, and any accepted wage demand is only valid for the period in which it was accepted. We establish the following results under the assumption that the worker's value is uniformly distributed on an interval: When the firm is more patient than the worker (I<1) both parties prefer contract bargaining, and when the worker is more patient than the firm (I >1) both prefer repeated bargaining. For any value of I, the preferred type of bargaining gives the lower unemployment.  The work of Bae has already shown that when players are equally patient (I=1) the players are indifferent between the two schemes, regardless of the distribution of the worker's value. This paper shows that Bae's indifference result (Bae, 1991) cannot be extended to unequally patient players. Received: December 1996/Final version: October 1998     

Dynamic pricing with uncertain production cost: An alternating-move approach

This article studies a two-firm dynamic pricing model with random production costs. The firms produce the same perishable products over an infinite time horizon when production (or operation) costs are random. In each period, each firm determines its price and production levels based on its current production cost and its opponent’s previous price level. We use an alternating-move game to model this problem and show that there exists a unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in production and pricing decisions. We provide a closed-form solution for the firm’s pricing policy. Finally, we study the game in the case of incomplete information, when both or one of the firms do not have access to the current prices charged by their opponents.     

Growth in Illyria: The role of meritocracy in the accumulation of human capital

In this paper we present a dynamic model of cooperative production with human capital accumulation. We assume CES preferences on consumption and leisure in each period. When agents do not care about future generations, sustained growth occurs iff the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure is larger or equal than one. Meritocracy always has a positive effect on output, but when the elasticity of substitution is less than one, is only a level effect. When agents care about future generations, under Cobb–Douglas preferences in each period and some extra conditions, there is constant growth at a rate that is larger than the one when future generations do not count. For any discount rate between generations, there is a unique level of meritocracy for which efficiency is achieved.     

Asset allocation,sustainable withdrawal,longevity risk and non-exponential discounting

The present paper studies an optimal withdrawal and investment problem for a retiree who is interested in sustaining her retirement consumption above a pre-specified minimum consumption level. Apparently, the withdrawal and investment policy depends substantially on the retiree’s health condition and her time preferences (subjective discount factor). We assume that the health of the retiree can worsen or improve in an unpredictable way over her lifetime and model the retiree’s mortality intensity by a stochastic process. In order to make the decision about the consumption and investment policy more realistic, we assume that the retiree applies a non-exponential discount factor (an exponential discount factor with a small amount of hyperbolic discounting) to value her future income. In other words, we consider an optimization problem by combining four important aspects: asset allocation, sustainable withdrawal, longevity risk and non-exponential discounting. Due to the non-exponential discount factor, we have to solve a time-inconsistent optimization problem. We derive a non-local HJB equation which characterizes the equilibrium optimal investment and consumption strategy. We establish the first-order expansions of the equilibrium value function and the equilibrium strategies by applying expansion techniques. The expansion is performed on the parameter controlling the degree of discounting in the hyperbolic discounting that is added to the exponential discount factors. The first-order equilibrium investment and consumption strategies can be calculated in a feasible way by solving PDEs.     

基于策略型消费者的电商平台折扣销售期定价策略研究

电商平台折扣销售期的双重折扣现象激发了巨大的消费需求,本文构建了具有折扣销售期的电商平台和商家的斯坦伯格博弈模型,研究了在电商平台不提供消费者返利和提供消费者返利的情况下商家和电商平台的最优定价策略。从消费者效用出发,结合最优化方法和博弈论,力图为商家和电商平台的决策提供参考。研究结果表明:(1)在电商平台不提供返利时,消费者的策略性越高,正常销售期的价格越高,折扣率越低。(2)当电商平台给消费者提供返利时,正常销售期的价格会升高,而折扣销售期的价格会降低,差异化定价现象愈加明显。(3)当消费者的麻烦成本高于某一阈值时,电商平台提供顾客返利时的收益相比不提供顾客返利时更高且最优利润随着消费者的麻烦成本的增加而增加。(4)拓展部分考虑了过高麻烦成本造成的消费者流失,发现适当的提高消费者的麻烦成本能增加平台和商家的收益,但是当超过一定的范围,会引起用户流失,反而损害双方的利润。     

Default Times in a Continuous-Time Markovian Regime Switching Model

We investigate the default time of a firm when a stochastic discount factor is used so that both diffusion and regime switching risks are priced. We establish the relationship between the probability distribution of the default time and the solution of a system of coupled partial differential equations.     

中国民航机票折扣定价策略研究

在分析中国民航票价演变的基础上,研究了垄断航空公司折扣票价的利润最大化问题,对比分析了在单一价格、外生型价格歧视和内生型价格歧视三种情形下,折扣率对利润、价格和产出的影响,研究表明:内生型价格歧视的利润和产出大于外生型价格歧视下的利润和产出,而价格歧视下的利润大于单一价格下的利润,折扣票价的有效实施应以分隔各子市场为前提。进一步的研究应扩展到多级票价和动态定价中去。     

Vulnerable Derivatives and Good Deal Bounds: A Structural Model

Abstract

We price vulnerable derivatives – i.e. derivatives where the counterparty may default. These are basically the derivatives traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Default is modelled in a structural framework. The technique employed for pricing is good deal bounds (GDBs). The method imposes a new restriction in the arbitrage free model by setting upper bounds on the Sharpe ratios (SRs) of the assets. The potential prices that are eliminated represent unreasonably good deals. The constraint on the SR translates into a constraint on the stochastic discount factor. Thus, tight pricing bounds can be obtained. We provide a link between the objective probability measure and the range of potential risk-neutral measures, which has an intuitive economic meaning. We also provide tight pricing bounds for European calls and show how to extend the call formula to pricing other financial products in a consistent way. Finally, we numerically analyse the behaviour of the good deal pricing bounds.     

服务水平约束下动态定价与库存管理

本文研究服务水平约束下的动态定价与库存管理问题。企业在有限期内销售某种产品,产品的需求为随机需求,且期望需求依赖于产品价格。在每一期期初,企业需要在满足服务水平约束的条件下同时决定订货量和产品价格。本文首先构建了动态定价和订购联合决策的随机动态规划模型,并证明了最优解的存在性。进一步,通过对最优解的结构进行刻画,将原问题的求解转化为若干子问题的求解,降低了问题求解的难度。通过对最优解的分析发现,当期初库存增大时,产品最优价格降低。通过分析目标服务水平对利润的影响,证明了服务水平与利润之间存在权衡,实现高的服务水平需要承受利润损失。数值模拟表明,相对于传统的静态定价策略,采用动态定价策略可以降低追求服务水平所带来的利润损失,验证了动态定价策略的有效性。     

确定性需求下的最优保理融资与生产策略

企业为下游买方提供赊销,由于大量的资金被应收账款占用,企业可能因资金不足而无法生产足够的产品。企业可以通过保理(出售应收账款)进行融资,减小需求损失。在离散时间多周期的确定需求下,使用决策变量描述各周期的系统状态及其状态转移方程,将此问题建模为线性规划。通过分析此问题的结构特点,再提出了一种新颖且等价的建模方法,可以有效减少决策变量和约束条件的数量。在连续时间模型和混合模型中,这种建模方法同样适用,将优化问题写为连续线性规划,极大地降低了优化问题的复杂度。此连续线性规划问题可通过适当的区间划分进行离散化,用分片常量函数代替优化模型中的一般函数(无限维)决策变量,通过求解有限维线性规划得到原问题的可行近似解。最后,通过数值例子分析了贴现率对企业利润的影响。     

A comparison of different quantity discount pricing policies in a two-echelon channel with stochastic and asymmetric demand information

In this paper, we study quantity discount pricing policies in a channel of one manufacturer and one retailer. The paper assumes that the channel faces a stochastic price-sensitive demand but the retailer can privately observe the realization of an uncertain demand parameter. The problem is analyzed as a Stackelberg game in which the manufacturer declares quantity discount pricing schemes to the retailer and then the retailer follows by selecting the retail price and associated quantity. Proposed in the paper are four quantity-discount pricing policies: “regular quantity discount”; “fixed percentage discount”; “incremental volume discount” and “fixed marginal-profit-rate discount”. Optimal solutions are derived, and numerical examples are presented to illustrate the efficiency of each discount policy.     

Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model

Demand and procurement planning for consumer electronics products must cope with short life cycles, limited replenishment opportunities and a willingness to pay that is influenced by past prices and decreases over time. We therefore propose the use of an integrated pricing and inventory control model with a two-period linear demand model, in which demand also depends on the difference between a price-history-based reference price and the current price. For this model we prove that the optimal joint pricing/inventory policy for the replenishment opportunity after the first period is a base-stock list-price policy. That is, stock is either replenished up to a base-stock level and a list-price is charged, or it is not replenished and a discount is given that increases with the stock-level. Furthermore, we use real-world cell phone data to study the differences between an integrated policy and traditional sequential optimization, where prices are initially optimized based on the expected demand and ordering cost, and the resulting demand distribution is used to determine an optimal inventory policy. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the model.