Modeling of Lone Star Ticks with Deer Migration to Canada

Due to climate change and an increase of favourable habitat, ticks and tick-borne diseases are reported to expand to northern areas in north America. One main factor for lone star ticks to be established in Canada is due to the migration of white-tailed deers from US. In this work, we formulate a compartmental model to study the dynamics of lone star ticks and white-tailed deers, with a focus on migration effect of white-tailed deers. The tickhost interaction and the effect of deer migration are explored analytically and numerically. The positivity of the populations in the model is proved, and the unique positive equilibrium is proved to be asymptotically stable. We conduct sensitivity analysis on a set of parameters, revealing the correlation between the parameters and equilibrium populations. Numerical results show that migration rate of white-tailed deer is one crucial parameter that increases the populations of (infected) ticks and (infected) hosts.     

MODELS OF HOST-PARASITOID INTERACTIONS TO DETERMINE THE OPTIMAL INSTAR OF PARASITIZATION FOR PEST CONTROL

Four models are presented to investigate the effects of the host instar that is parasitized on host equilibrium numbers. The models are age structured and density dependent. The models indicate that the equilibrium density of adult hosts is a positive function of the host age at attack. This result is independent of the host survivorship curve. The effects of the other parameters are outlined, and compared for the various positions of density dependence. The equilibria of both parasitoids and hosts are generally larger when density dependence is in the parasitoids than when in the hosts. Numerical runs indicate that the birth rate and stage-specific survivorship of the hosts are the most important parameters of the system in determining both stability around equilibrium and the host growth rate below equilibrium.     

Global dynamics of an age‐structured virus model with saturation effects

An infection‐age virus dynamics model for human immunodeficiency virus (or hepatitis B virus) infections with saturation effects of infection rate and immune response is investigated in this paper. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by two critical values R ₀, the basic reproductive number for viral infection, and R ₁, the viral reproductive number at the immune‐free infection steady state (R ₁<R ₀). If R ₀<1, the uninfected steady state E ⁰ is globally asymptotically stable; if R ₀>1 > R ₁, the immune‐free infected steady state E ^? is globally asymptotically stable; while if R ₁>1, the antibody immune infected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. Moreover, our results show that ignoring the saturation effects of antibody immune response or infection rate will result in an overestimate of the antibody immune reproductive number. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE JACOBSON RADICAL OF GRADED RINGS

Abstract

We introduce a new large class of semigroups S including all locally finite, completely regular and strongly π-regular linear semigroups. For any semigroup S in the class and any S-graded ring R, the structure of the Jacobson radical of R is reduced to the radicals of subrings graded by the maximal subgroups of S. Many results on radicals follow from this reduction in a unified way. In two special cases the reduction is simplified.     

Analysis of an HIV model with post-treatment control

Recent investigation indicated that latent reservoir and immune impairment are responsible for the post-treatment control of HIV infection. In this paper, we simplify the disease model with latent reservoir and immune impairment and perform a series of mathematical analysis. We obtain the basic infection reproductive number $R_{0}$ to characterize the viral dynamics. We prove that when $R_{0}<1$, the uninfected equilibrium of the proposed model is globally asymptotically stable. When $R_{0}>1$, we obtain two thresholds, the post-treatment immune control threshold and the elite control threshold. The model has bistable behaviors in the interval between the two thresholds. If the proliferation rate of CTLs is less than the post-treatment immune control threshold, the model does not have positive equilibria. In this case, the immune free equilibrium is stable and the system will have virus rebound. On the other hand, when the proliferation rate of CTLs is greater than the elite control threshold, the system has stable positive immune equilibrium and unstable immune free equilibrium. Thus, the system is under elite control.     

Global stability of a virus dynamics model with intracellular delay and CTL immune response

In this paper, the global stability of a virus dynamics model with intracellular delay, Crowley–Martin functional response of the infection rate, and CTL immune response is studied. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and using LaSalles invariance principle, the global dynamics is established; it is proved that if the basic reproductive number, R₀, is less than or equal to one, the infection‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀ is more than one, and if immune response reproductive number, R⁰, is less than one, the immune‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R⁰ is more than one, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of SIS model with saturation incidence,infection age and impulsive birth

In this paper, an impulsive birth and infection age SIS epidemic model is studied. Since infection age is an important factor of epidemic progression, we incorporate the infection age into the model. In this model, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of this model and point out that there exists an infection‐free periodic solution that is globally asymptotically stable if R₀<1. When R₁>1, R₂<1, then the disease is permanent. Our results indicate that a large period T of pulse, or a small pulse birth rate p is the sufficient condition for the eradication of the disease. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical Modeling of a Pharmacokinetic System

Abstract

The aim of the article is to investigate the drug concentration behavior in a three-compartment open pharmacokinetic model which describes the disposition of an antibiotic drug used in Lyme disease, coumermycin A ₁.

We study a system of random differential equations representing this model. The three rate constants that are used in the system of differential equations are simulated using the trivariate truncated normal probability distribution. The initial values of the rate constants that are used in the simulation are calculated from the pharmacokinetic profile of coumermycin A ₁ determined in four human subjects based on the serum level data obtained from the report of a clinical study. The extensive numerical solutions for the system of random differential equations under different combinations of the covariance structure and the initial conditions are developed.

Numerical comparisons of the deterministic characterizations of the drug concentration as a function of time of the individual compartments to study the effect of various combinations of the covariance structure and the initial conditions on these characterizations are presented. A similar comparison between the deterministic and the stochastic characterizations is also presented.     

THE NET REPRODUCTIVE VALUE AND STABILITY IN MATRIX POPULATION MODELS

The net reproductive value n is defined for a general discrete linear population model with a non-negative projection matrix. This number is shown to have the biological interpretation of the expected number of offspring per individual over its life time. The main result relates n to the population's growth rate (i.e. the dominant eigenvalue λ of the projection matrix) and shows that the stability of the extinction state (the trivial equilibrium) can be determined by whether n is less than or greater than 1. Examples are given to show that explicit algebraic formulas for n are often derivable, and hence available for both numerical and parameter studies of stability, when no such formulas for λ are available.     

Epidemic dynamics model with delay and impulsive vaccination control base on variable population

Pulse vaccination is an effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. In this paper, we considered an SEIR epidemic model with delay and impulsive vaccination direct at a variable population and analyzed its dynamic behaviors. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact infection‐free periodic solution of the impulsive epidemic system, further, prove that the infection‐free periodic solution is globally attractive if the vaccination rate is larger than θ* or the length of latent period of disease is larger than τ* or the length of period of impulsive vaccination is smaller than T*. We also prove that a short latent period of the disease (with τ) or a long period of pulsing (with T) or a small pulse vaccination rate (with θ) is sufficient to bring about the disease is uniformly persistent. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic mean value theorems for conditioned random variables with applications

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic analogue of the mean value theorem for conditional nonnegative random variables ordered in the hazard rate and reversed hazard rate order, upon conditioning on intervals of the form (t,∞) and [0,t]. This result is then specialized within the proportional hazards model and the proportional reversed hazards model with applications to series systems in reliability theory and to absorption random times of linear birth‐death processes. We also study the comparison of residual entropies and discuss some connections to Wasserstein and stop‐loss distances of random variables. A treatment for the additive hazard rate model is finally provided, with an application to life annuities.     

Stochastic comparisons in multivariate mixed model of proportional reversed hazard rate with applications

This paper studies the multivariate mixed proportional reversed hazard rate model having dependent mixing variables. Stochastic comparison as well as aging properties in this model are investigated, and stochastic monotone properties of the population vector with respect to the mixing vector are also discussed. Moreover, MTP₂ dependence among the mixing vectors is proved to imply the increasingness of the reversed hazard rate with respect to the baseline one. Finally, some interesting applications are presented as well.     

BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF EASTERN BALTIC COD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT

Abstract The objective of this paper is to study the economic management of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) under the influence of nutrient enrichment. Average nitrogen concentration in the spawning areas during the spawning season of cod stock is chosen to be an indicator of nutrient enrichment. The optimal cod stock is defined using a dynamic bioeconomic model for the cod fisheries. The results show that the current stock level is about half of the estimated optimal stock level and that the current total allowable catch (TAC) is about one‐fourth of the optimal equilibrium yield. The results also indicate that the benefit from a reduction in nitrogen very much depends on the harvest policies. If the TAC is set equal to the optimal equilibrium yield, the benefit of a nitrogen reduction from the 2009 level to the optimal nitrogen level would be about 604 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon, given a discount rate of 4% per year. However, if a recovery management plan is chosen, the benefit would only be about 49 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon.     

Mixed Micromechanics and Continuum Damage Mechanics Approach to Transverse Cracking in [S, 90n]s Laminates

The stiffness reduction in [S, 90 _n ] _s laminates due to transverse cracking in 90-layers is analyzed using the synergistic continuum damage mechanics (SCDM) and a micromechanics approach. The material constants involved in the SCDM model are determined using the stiffness reduction data for a reference cross-ply laminate. The constraint efficiency factor, which depends on the stiffness and geometry of neighboring layers, is assumed to be proportional to the average crack opening displacement (COD). The COD as a function of the constraint effect of adjacent layers and crack spacing is described by a simple power law. The crack closure technique and Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the damage evolution: the 90-layer is divided into a large number of elements and the critical strain energy rate G _c having the Weibull distribution is randomly assigned to each element. The crack density data for a [0₂/90₄] _s cross-ply laminate are used to determine the Weibull parameters. The simulated crack density curves are combined with the CDM stiffness reduction predictions to obtain the stiffness versus strain. The methodology developed is successfully used to predict the stiffness reduction as a function of crack density in [±/90₄] _s laminates.     

Global analysis of virus dynamics model with logistic mitosis,cure rate and delay in virus production

In this paper, we study a virus dynamics model with logistic mitosis, cure rate, and intracellular delay. By means of construction of a suitable Lyapunov functionals, obtained by linear combinations of Volterra—type functions, composite quadratic functions and Volterra—type functionals, we provide the global stability for this model. If R₀, the basic reproductive number, satisfies R₀ ≤ 1, then the infection‐free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable. Our system is persistent if R₀ > 1. On the other hand, if R₀ > 1, then infection‐free equilibrium becomes unstable and a unique infected equilibrium exists. The local stability analysis is carried out for the infected equilibrium, and it is shown that, if the parameters satisfy a condition, the infected equilibrium can be unstable and a Hopf bifurcation can occur. We also have that if R₀ > 1, then the infected equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable if a sufficient condition is satisfied. We illustrate our findings with some numerical simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling plant disease with biological control of insect pests

Abstract

Introduction: This article discusses the problem of plant diseases that pose major threat to agriculture in several parts of the World. Herein, our focus is on viruses that are transmitted from one plant to another by insect vectors. We consider predators that prey on insect population leading to reduction in infection transmission of plant diseases. Methods: We formulate and analyze a deterministic model for plant disease by incorporating predators as biological control agents. Existence of equilibria and the stability of the model are discussed in-detail. Basic reproduction number R₀ of the proposed model is also computed and this helps in determining the impact of different key parameters on the transmission dynamics of disease. Additionally, the proposed model is extended to stochastic model and simulation results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared and analyzed. Results: Our results of stochastic model show the less number of infected plants and insects compared to corresponding results for deterministic model. Also, our results analyze the impact of different key parameters on the equilibrium levels of infected plants and identify the key parameters. Discussion: Presented results are used to conclude and demonstrate that the biological control is effective in reducing the infection transmission of plant disease and there is a need to use plant-insect-specific predators to get desirable results.     

一个供应链系统可靠性模型时间依赖解的渐近行为

本文研究一个供应链系统可靠性模型的时间依赖解.利用C0-半群理论研究该模型相应算子的谱的特征,获得了该系统模型时间依赖解的渐近行为,推广了文献[8]中的结果.     

Symmetric block bases in finite-dimensional normed spaces

It is shown that for 1 ≦p < ∞, any basisC-equivalent to the unit vector basis ofl _p ⁿ has a (1 + ε)-symmetric block basis of cardinality proportional ton/logn. When 1 <p < ∞, an upper bound proportional ton log logn/logn is also obtained. These results extend results of Amir and Milman in [2].     

TWO DIFFERENTIAL INFECTIVITY EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

This paper considers two differential infectivity（DI） epidemic models with a nonlinear incidence rate and constant or varying population size. The models exhibits two equilibria, namely., a disease-free equilibrium O and a unique endemic equilibrium. If the basic reproductive number σ is below unity,O is globally stable and the disease always dies out. If σ〉1, O is unstable and the sufficient conditions for global stability of endemic equilibrium are derived. Moreover,when σ〈 1 ,the local or global asymptotical stability of endemic equilibrium for DI model with constant population size in n-dimensional or two-dimensional space is obtained.     

Dynamical analysis and control strategies on malware propagation model

A variable infection rate is more realistic to forecast dynamical behaviors of malware (malicious software) propagation. In this paper, we propose a time-delayed SIRS model by introducing temporal immunity and the variable infection rate. The basic reproductive number R₀ which determines whether malware dies out is obtained. Furthermore, using time delay as a bifurcation parameter, some necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring Hopf bifurcation to occur for this model are derived. Finally, numerical simulations verify the correctness of theoretical results. Most important of all, we investigate the effect of the variable infection rate on the scale of malware prevalence and compare our model with stationary analytical model by simulation. According to simulating results, some strategies that control malware rampant are given, which may be incorporated into cost-effective antivirus policies for organizations to work quite well in practice.