高维线性模型的稀疏半参有效估计

高维线性回归估计是一个被大量学者研究的重要统计学问题.在误差分布未知的情况下,如何将有效性纳入高维估计仍是一个尚未解决且具有挑战性的问题.最小二乘估计在非Gauss误差密度下会损失估计的效率,而极大似然估计由于误差密度未知,无法直接被应用.基于惩罚估计方程,本文提出一种新的稀疏半参有效估计方法应用于高维线性回归的估计.本文证明了在误差密度未知的超高维回归下,新的估计渐近地与具有神谕性的极大似然估计一样有效,因此对于非Gauss误差密度,它比传统的惩罚最小二乘估计更有效.此外,本文证明了几种常用的高维回归估计是本文方法的特例.模拟和实际数据的结果验证了本文所提出方法的有效性.     

基于因子收缩方法的高维协方差估计

高维协方差矩阵在经济、金融、生物等众多领域中有着广泛应用.基于收缩估计模型,构造样本协方差矩阵与因子模型协方差矩阵的凸线性组合,通过对因子模型的改进来提高模型估计精度.在构造因子模型时,引入因子选择准则(pc_p3(k))来确定因子个数:在确定最优权重α时,使用基于MSE(S)分解的思想求解.通过数据验证发现,相较于传统方法,提升了协方差矩阵估计精确性;在构造投资组合模型时,也可以有效降低投资风险.     

基于加速梯度算法的高维协方差矩阵估计的研究

稀疏性和正定性是高维稀疏协方差矩阵估计中要保证的两个重要性质.为了保证这两个性质被高效的实现,我们使用一个正定的l₁惩罚来估计高维协方差矩阵,并使用一个有竞争力的加速梯度算法去实现估计.实验结果表明,与其他方法相比,该方法在计算时间、正确率、错误率、F范数等指标上具有较好的表现,同时实现了最优解达到O(1/k~2)的收敛速率.     

矩阵块对角占优性的推广及应用

在本文中,我们给出了一类块对角占优矩阵的定义,讨论了块对角占优矩阵的判定及应用,相应的结果改进和推广了[1]—[4]中的若干结论.     

高维模型选择方法综述

模型选择是统计学的热点研究问题。近年来随着数据维数越来越高,传统模型选择方法的应用受到了很多制约。本文着重介绍高维模型选择的新方法,并讨论实现模型选择过程的一个重要环节,即调整参数的选取。最后文章总结归纳了未来可能的研究方向。     

基于ADMM正则化轨道算法的高维稀疏精度矩阵估计

考虑预测变量p的数量超过样本大小n的高维稀疏精度矩阵.近年来,由于高维稀疏精度矩阵估计变得越来越流行,所以文章专注于计算正则化路径,或者在整个正则化参数范围内解决优化问题.首先使用定义在正定性约束下最小化Lasso目标函数精度矩阵估计器,然后对稀疏精度矩阵使用乘数交替方向法(ADMM)算法正则化路径,以快速估计与正则化...     

稀疏函数型回归模型变量选择及实证分析

传统函数型回归模型变量选择方法,忽略了对稀疏函数型数据的讨论.提出了稀疏函数型数据情形下函数型回归模型的变量选择方法,基于条件期望对稀疏函数型自变量进行函数型主成分分析,并以估计的正交特征函数作为基函数对模型进行展开.这种方法可以有效解决对稀疏函数型变量的选择.作为实证分析,选取2002年到2011年全国34个气象观测站的年降水量,月度平均气温,光照时长,湿度,最高气温和最低气温数据,分别比较讨论了密集和稀疏情形下,原始样本和Bootstrap样本的函数型回归模型变量选择的结果,结果显示新方法具有较好的选择效果.     

GARCH(1,1)模型的稳健估计比较及应用

首先阐述了GARCH(1,1)模型稳健估计的构造方法,然后在模型有无异常值扩散效应约束和异常值比例不同的情况下,比较了传统QMLE估计和多种稳健M估计的表现,结果表明:在数据无异常值下,QMLE估计较优;随着异常值比例增加,稳健Andrew估计表现更好;模型施加异常值扩散效应约束对估计有一定改善但不显著.最后选取波动程度不同的两个阶段沪深300指数的收益率,用模型拟合进行了实例比较,在波动程度较大时,Andrew估计效果较优,在波动相对平稳时,LAD估计较优.     

多维GARCH模型的半参数有效估计

多元GARCH模型的估计一般采用拟极大似然法(quasi maximum likehood),对于这种方法估计的相合性及渐近正态性已经被很多学者证实,然而对于新息列的分布不是多元正态时,这种估计的有效性还没人研究,本文从拟极大似然估计得到的参数相合估计入手,提出用非参数方法估计多元新息列的分布.     

高维稀疏数据对象——属性空间分割

针对高维稀疏数据预处理过程,提出了运用两阶段协同聚类算法(MTSCCA)来获得质量较好的高维稀疏对象-属性的子空间,并通过实证研究证明了算法的有效性.     

Sign-based Test for Mean Vector in High-dimensional and Sparse Settings

In this article, we introduce a robust sparse test statistic which is based on the maximum type statistic. Both the limiting null distribution of the test statistic and the power of the test are analysed. It is shown that the test is particularly powerful against sparse alternatives. Numerical studies are carried out to examine the numerical performance of the test and to compare it with other tests available in the literature. The numerical results show that the test proposed significantly outperforms those tests in a range of settings, especially for sparse alternatives.     

Efficient Distributed Estimation of High-dimensional Sparse Precision Matrix for Transelliptical Graphical Models

In this paper,distributed estimation of high-dimensional sparse precision matrix is proposed based on the debiased D-trace loss penalized lasso and the hard threshold method when samples are distributed into different machines for transelliptical graphical models.At a certain level of sparseness,this method not only achieves the correct selection of non-zero elements of sparse precision matrix,but the error rate can be comparable to the estimator in a non-distributed setting.The numerical results further prove that the proposed distributed method is more effective than the usual average method.     

GARCH模型估计方法选择及对上证指数的应用

本文介绍了对ARCH/GARCH模型的两种估计方法:准极大似然估计和极小绝对偏差估计,并提出了一种基于自助法(Bootstrap)对估计方法的选择。在厚尾程度不同的情况下进行了模拟分析,表明对于一个具体的数据,该选择法能够自动选择较优的估计方法。并用该方法对上海证券交易所A股和B股的股价指数进行了分析,印证了上海股市B股收益率的尾部厚于A股收益率尾部。     

A Sparse Structured Shrinkage Estimator for Nonparametric Varying-Coefficient Model With an Application in Genomics

Many problems in genomics are related to variable selection where high-dimensional genomic data are treated as covariates. Such genomic covariates often have certain structures and can be represented as vertices of an undirected graph. Biological processes also vary as functions depending upon some biological state, such as time. High-dimensional variable selection where covariates are graph-structured and underlying model is nonparametric presents an important but largely unaddressed statistical challenge. Motivated by the problem of regression-based motif discovery, we consider the problem of variable selection for high-dimensional nonparametric varying-coefficient models and introduce a sparse structured shrinkage (SSS) estimator based on basis function expansions and a novel smoothed penalty function. We present an efficient algorithm for computing the SSS estimator. Results on model selection consistency and estimation bounds are derived. Moreover, finite-sample performances are studied via simulations, and the effects of high-dimensionality and structural information of the covariates are especially highlighted. We apply our method to motif finding problem using a yeast cell-cycle gene expression dataset and word counts in genes’ promoter sequences. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can result in better variable selection and prediction for high-dimensional regression when the underlying model is nonparametric and covariates are structured. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.     

基于GARCH模型的期望损失ES非参数核估计

风险度量ES最新的非参数估计方法,不依赖于分布假设,但不能动态反应金融时间序列的风险.针对金融时间序列的波动,结合GARCH模型进行期望损失ES的非参数核估计,得到随市场波动而动态变化的ES预测.通过数值模拟和对近两年的上证指数实证分析验证了该方法能准确而有效的反映市场风险.     

A Geometric Approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Functional Principal Components From Sparse Longitudinal Data

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the covariance kernel (i.e., the functional principal components) from sparse and irregularly observed longitudinal data. We exploit the smoothness of the eigenfunctions to reduce dimensionality by restricting them to a lower dimensional space of smooth functions. We then approach this problem through a restricted maximum likelihood method. The estimation scheme is based on a Newton–Raphson procedure on the Stiefel manifold using the fact that the basis coefficient matrix for representing the eigenfunctions has orthonormal columns. We also address the selection of the number of basis functions, as well as that of the dimension of the covariance kernel by a second-order approximation to the leave-one-curve-out cross-validation score that is computationally very efficient. The effectiveness of our procedure is demonstrated by simulation studies and an application to a CD4+ counts dataset. In the simulation studies, our method performs well on both estimation and model selection. It also outperforms two existing approaches: one based on a local polynomial smoothing, and another using an EM algorithm. Supplementary materials including technical details, the R package fpca, and data analyzed by this article are available online.     

带有组结构的稀疏模型的参数估计和变量选择方法

本文针对带有组结构的广义线性稀疏模型,引入布雷格曼散度作为一般性的损失函数,进行参数估计和变量选择,使得该方法不局限于特定模型或特定的损失函数.本文比较研究了Ridge,SACD,Lasso,自适应Lasso,组Lasso,分层Lasso,自适应分层Lasso和稀疏组Lasso共8种惩罚函数的特点和引入模型后参数估计和...     

Positive Semidefinite Rank-Based Correlation Matrix Estimation With Application to Semiparametric Graph Estimation

Many statistical methods gain robustness and flexibility by sacrificing convenient computational structures. In this article, we illustrate this fundamental tradeoff by studying a semiparametric graph estimation problem in high dimensions. We explain how novel computational techniques help to solve this type of problem. In particular, we propose a nonparanormal neighborhood pursuit algorithm to estimate high-dimensional semiparametric graphical models with theoretical guarantees. Moreover, we provide an alternative view to analyze the tradeoff between computational efficiency and statistical error under a smoothing optimization framework. Though this article focuses on the problem of graph estimation, the proposed methodology is widely applicable to other problems with similar structures. We also report thorough experimental results on text, stock, and genomic datasets.     

High-dimensional asymptotic expansion of LR statistic for testing intraclass correlation structure and its error bound

This paper deals with the null distribution of a likelihood ratio (LR) statistic for testing the intraclass correlation structure. We derive an asymptotic expansion of the null distribution of the LR statistic when the number of variable p and the sample size N approach infinity together, while the ratio p/N is converging on a finite nonzero limit c(0,1). Numerical simulations reveal that our approximation is more accurate than the classical χ²-type and F-type approximations as p increases in value. Furthermore, we derive a computable error bound for its asymptotic expansion.     

基于MRS-GARCH模型的中国股市波动率估计与预测

基于误差项服从正态分布、t分布、广义误差分布的GARCH族模型和MRS-GARCH模型对中国股市波动的结构变化特征进行了实证研究。结果表明,中国股市存在显著的高、低波动状态,两种波动状态的ARCH和GARCH项系数存在较大差异;高、低波动状态均具有较长的持续时间,低波动状态的持续时间长于高波动状态的持续时间,且中国股市更易于从高波动状态转向低波动状态;MRS-GARCH模型预测效果总体上优于GARCH族模型,基于正态分布的MRS-GARCH模型短期预测效果较好。