优化支持向量机在降水预报中的应用

利用粒子群优化算法对支持向量机参数进行优化,主成分分析法对众多的降水因子进行特征提取,将取得的主成分作为优化支持向量机的特征向量建立优化支持向量机降水预测模型,并对广西降水进行预测.仿真结果表明,粒子群优化支持向量机的预测结果与降水实际值有很好的一致性,通过与其他模型进行比较,表明了模型拟合和泛化能力方面的优越性.     

模糊神经网络方法在定点定量降水预报中的应用研究

以单站24小时降水量作为预报对象,采用模糊神经网络方法进行了新的数值预报产品释用预报方法研究.首先通过对T 213、ECMW F预报因子场以及高空气象探测资料进行处理,有效浓缩多种物理量因子场的实况及预报信息,并进一步建立了南宁、桂林、河池、百色4站的降水模糊神经网络释用预报模型.运用与实际业务相同的预报方法对2006年6—8月进行逐日的降水量预报试验,并与相同时次的T 213降水预报产品进行对比分析.结果表明,4个单站的定点、定量模糊神经网络降水预报模型,在预报性能上明显优于同期T 213数值预报模式的降水预报结果.     

主成分分析与支持向量机相结合的区域降水预测应用

将主成分分析和支持向量机回归相结合,以广西5、6月区域平均日降水量作为预报对象,进行区域日降水量预测研究.首先,整理分析大量的T213数值预报产品信息数据进行主成分分析,得到主成分数据序列;其次,根据主成分数据序列建立训练集训练支持向量机,并利用遗传算法优化参数;最后,输入支持向量机所需数据,得到主成分预测结果,建立广西日降水预报模型.实例计算结果表明,支持向量机回归模型比逐步回归模型有更好的预测能力.     

基于支持向量机的粒子群神经网络集成股市预测模型

为有效提高神经网络集成的泛化能力,先利用量子粒子群和主成分分析提高集成个体的泛化能力,再利用泛化能力强的支持向量机回归集成生成输出结论,建立一个基于支持向量机的粒子群神经网络集成股市预测模型.试验表明,该模型能有效提高神经网络集成系统的泛化能力,预测精度高,稳定性好.     

最优组合预测的短期气候预报建模研究

以预报量序列建立均生函数短期气候预报模型及根据500hPa月平均高度场预报因子分别建立的BP网络模型、回归预报模型为基础,用"误差绝对值和最小"作为最优准则,建立月平均降水量的短期气候组合预测模型.采用线性规划方法计算得到组合预测模型的各权系数,对这种短期气候组合预测模型的预报能力进行了分析研究,结果表明,该组合预测模型的预报精度优于各子方法,具有很好的应用价值.     

偏最小二乘回归方法(PLS)在短期气候预测中的应用

对广西88个站冬季(12月、1月和2月)各月平均气温距平场作自然正交展开(EOF分解),选取累积方差贡献超过90%的前3个主成分作为预报量.从前期平均大气环流场和海温场中查找预报因子,对这些初选因子用偏最小二乘回归方法(PLS)进行信息筛选和成分提取,用提取的新综合变量(又称成分)作预报因子,分别建立各月平均气温前3个主成分的回归预报方程.经独立样本预报试验证明,偏最小二乘回归方法具备良好的因子信息提取能力,其预报建模方法对冬季月平均气温预报具有较好的预测效果.     

基于支持向量机的制造企业创新能力评价模型

在分析了制造企业创新能力评价指标体系的基础上进行企业调查,对收集到的不同类型制造企业的完整数据进行整理,因子分析整理后得到9个综合因子表述原数据,以减少数据处理及问题分析的复杂性.利用支持向量机作为分类器,并使用已有的企业数据作为训练样本,创建了基于支持向量机的制造企业创新能力评价模型.实验结果表明采用径向基函数和多项式函数作为核函数,此模型具有很好的分类性能,可作为制造企业创新能力的评价工具.     

基于LS-SVM的管道腐蚀速率灰色组合预测模型

为提高管道腐蚀速率预测精度,建立了一种基于最小二乘支持向量机的灰色组合预测模型.以各种灰色模型对管道腐蚀速率的预测结果作为支持向量机的输入,以管道腐蚀速率的实测值作为支持向量机的输出,采用最小二乘支持向量机回归算法和高斯核函数对支持向量机进行训练,利用训练好的支持向量机进行组合预测.预测模型兼具灰色模型所需原始数据少、建模简单、运算方便的优势和最小二乘支持向量机具有泛化能力强、非线性拟合性好、小样本等特性,弥补了单一预测模型的不足,避免了神经网络组合预测易于陷入局部最优的弱点.模型结构简单、实用,仿真结果验证了其有效性.     

基于灰色关联分析的支持向量机的铁路货运量预测研究

采用基于灰色关联分析的支持向量机对铁路货运量进行预测.首先利用灰色关联分析法对影响铁路货运量的因素进行分析处理,然后利用基于高斯核函数的支持向量回归机建立了铁路货运量预测模型.通过分析预测结果可以发现,经过灰色关联分析后的支持向量机模型对复杂的铁路货运量数据有较好地处理能力,且预测相对误差较小.特别地,由于支持向量机的适应性,该模型具有较高的泛化能力,对影响因素较为复杂,样本数量小的预测问题可以提供一定参考.     

基于PCA和改进的PSO-SVM的机器人移动方向分类

随着人们创新水平的不断提高,为了更加准确的实现机器人的导航任务,提出了一种基于改进的粒子群优化支持向量机中的参数的方法.首先利用主成分分析法对数据进行降维,然后利用改进的粒子群优化算法,对SVM中的惩罚参数c和核函数的参数g进行优化,最后代入到SVM中,以此来达到运用SVM对机器人的导航任务进行分类识别.相对于其他算法,容易发现改进的粒子群优化算法优化后的支持向量机可以达到很好的效果.这种识别分类可以帮助人们很好的对机器人进行导航,对今后机器人的研究具有很大的应用价值.     

Rainfall forecasting by technological machine learning models

Accurate forecasting of rainfall has been one of the most important issues in hydrological research. Due to rainfall forecasting involves a rather complex nonlinear data pattern; there are lots of novel forecasting approaches to improve the forecasting accuracy. Recurrent artificial neural networks (RNNS) have played a crucial role in forecasting rainfall data. Meanwhile, support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. This investigation elucidates the feasibility of hybrid model of RNNs and SVMs, namely RSVR, to forecast rainfall depth values. Moreover, chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm (CPSO) is employed to choose the parameters of a SVR model. Subsequently, example of rainfall values during typhoon periods from Northern Taiwan is used to illustrate the proposed RSVRCPSO model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model yields well forecasting performance, RSVRCPSO model provides a promising alternative for forecasting rainfall values.     

Study on network traffic forecast model of SVR optimized by GAFSA

There are some problems, such as low precision, on existing network traffic forecast model. In accordance with these problems, this paper proposed the network traffic forecast model of support vector regression (SVR) algorithm optimized by global artificial fish swarm algorithm (GAFSA). GAFSA constitutes an improvement of artificial fish swarm algorithm, which is a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with a significant effect of optimization. The optimum training parameters used for SVR could be calculated by optimizing chosen parameters, which would make the forecast more accurate. With the optimum training parameters searched by GAFSA algorithm, a model of network traffic forecast, which greatly solved problems of great errors in SVR improved by others intelligent algorithms, could be built with the forecast result approaching stability and the increased forecast precision. The simulation shows that, compared with other models (e.g. GA-SVR, CPSO-SVR), the forecast results of GAFSA-SVR network traffic forecast model is more stable with the precision improved to more than 89%, which plays an important role on instructing network control behavior and analyzing security situation.     

Enhanced speciation in particle swarm optimization for multi-modal problems

In this paper, we present a novel multi-modal optimization algorithm for finding multiple local optima in objective function surfaces. We build from Species-based particle swarm optimization (SPSO) by using deterministic sampling to generate new particles during the optimization process, by implementing proximity-based speciation coupled with speciation of isolated particles, and by including “turbulence regions” around already found solutions to prevent unnecessary function evaluations. Instead of using error threshold values, the new algorithm uses the particle’s experience, geometric mean, and “exclusion factor” to detect local optima and stop the algorithm. The performance of each extension is assessed with leave-it-out tests, and the results are discussed. We use the new algorithm called Isolated-Speciation-based particle swarm optimization (ISPSO) and a benchmark algorithm called Niche particle swarm optimization (NichePSO) to solve a six-dimensional rainfall characterization problem for 192 rain gages across the United States. We show why it is important to find multiple local optima for solving this real-world complex problem by discussing its high multi-modality. Solutions found by both algorithms are compared, and we conclude that ISPSO is more reliable than NichePSO at finding optima with a significantly lower objective function value.     

A novel hybrid decomposition-ensemble model based on VMD and HGWO for container throughput forecasting

This paper built a hybrid decomposition-ensemble model named VMD-ARIMA-HGWO-SVR for the purpose of improving the stability and accuracy of container throughput prediction. The latest variational mode decomposition (VMD) algorithm is employed to decompose the original series into several modes (components), then ARIMA models are built to forecast the low-frequency components, and the high-frequency components are predicted by SVR models which are optimized with a recently proposed swarm intelligence algorithm called hybridizing grey wolf optimization (HGWO), following this, the prediction results of all modes are ensembled as the final forecasting result. The error analysis and model comparison results show that the VMD is more effective than other decomposition methods such as CEEMD and WD, moreover, adopting ARIMA models for prediction of low-frequency components can yield better results than predicting all components by SVR models. Based on the results of empirical study, the proposed model has good prediction performance on container throughput data, which can be used in practical work to provide reference for the operation and management of ports to improve the overall efficiency and reduce the operation costs.     

Forecasting stock index price based on M-factors fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization

In real time, one observation always relies on several observations. To improve the forecasting accuracy, all these observations can be incorporated in forecasting models. Therefore, in this study, we have intended to introduce a new Type-2 fuzzy time series model that can utilize more observations in forecasting. Later, this Type-2 model is enhanced by employing particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The main motive behind the utilization of the PSO with the Type-2 model is to adjust the lengths of intervals in the universe of discourse that are employed in forecasting, without increasing the number of intervals. The daily stock index price data set of SBI (State Bank of India) is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The proposed model is also validated by forecasting the daily stock index price of Google. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model in comparison with existing fuzzy time series models and conventional time series models.     

含有压缩因子的粒子群优化灰色模型在智能电网中的应用

针对智能电网对用电量预测的需求和电力系统的负荷特性,在分析了灰色模型GM(1,1)的局限性以及基本粒子群算法在优化GM(1,1)背景值时所出现的不足的基础上,构建了具有压缩因子K的粒子群算法,以此来改进灰色模型的背景值,提出了含有压缩因子的粒子群优化灰色模型KPSO-GM,并把它用于智能电网中用电量预测。实例证明,该算法具有较高的预测精度,有利于提高智能电网的质量。     

Balanced fuzzy particle swarm optimization

In the present study an extension of particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm which is in conformity with actual nature is introduced for solving combinatorial optimization problems. Development of this algorithm is essentially based on balanced fuzzy sets theory. The classical fuzzy sets theory cannot distinguish differences between positive and negative information of membership functions, while in the new method both kinds of information “positive and negative” about membership function are equally important. The balanced fuzzy particle swarm optimization algorithm is used for fundamental optimization problem entitled traveling salesman problem (TSP). For convergence inspecting of new algorithm, method was used for TSP problems. Convergence curves were represented fast convergence in restricted and low iterations for balanced fuzzy particle swarm optimization algorithm (BF-PSO) comparison with fuzzy particle swarm optimization algorithm (F-PSO).     

基于混沌粒子群优化算法的灰色GM(1,1)模型在地下水埋深预测中的应用

将混沌优化算法与粒子群优化算法相结合,形成新的混沌粒子群优化算法.利用混沌运动的遍历性,避免陷入局部最优.同时,粒子群算法能加快混沌优化算法的收敛速度,使搜索效率得到提高.用混沌粒子群优化算法优化灰色GM(1,1)模型中的参数,通过横向和纵向比较,优化效果良好,模型预测精度得到了提高.运用该模型对三江平原地下水埋深进行动态预测,预测结果可为有关决策部门提供参考.     

Hybrid design of PID controller for four DoF lower limb exoskeleton

In this paper, a method of tuning a proportional-integral-derivative controller for a four degree-of-freedom lower limb exoskeleton using hybrid of genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization is presented. Transfer function of each link of the lower limb exoskeleton acquired from a pendulum model, was used in a closed-loop proportional-integral-derivative control system, while each link was assumed as one degree-of-freedom linkage. In the control system, the hybrid algorithm was applied to acquire the parameters of the controller for each joint for minimizing the error. The algorithm started with genetic algorithm and continued via particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, a 3-dimensional model of the lower limb exoskeleton was simulated to validate the proposed controller. The trajectory of the control system with optimized proportional-integral-derivative controller via hybrid precisely follows the input signal of the desired. The result of the hybrid optimized controller was compared with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization based on statistics. The average error of the proposed algorithm showed the optimized results in comparison with genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, the advantages of the hybrid algorithm have been indicated by numerical analysis.