基于控制图的马田系统马氏空间生成机理研究

马田系统是以马氏距离为测量尺度,通过选取正常样本构建马氏空间,对多元系统进行诊断和预测的分类技术。马氏距离对样本数据的变化非常敏感,因此用于构建马氏空间的正常样本的数据质量直接影响到分类的准确率。实际应用中正常样本的选取大多依据主观经验判断,缺乏客观规范的选择机制。本文提出基于控制图的马氏空间生成机理,先由专家选取的正常样本构建初始马氏空间,再以每个正常样品在初始马氏空间和对应的缩减马氏空间上的马氏距离增量作为新的测量尺度,以此建立单值控制图,利用控制图稳定性判定规则剔除异常数据,从而得到稳定状态的马氏空间。实验分析结果表明该方法的有效性且提高了马田系统分类的准确率。     

马田系统在数据分类中的应用

马田系统是一种新的模式识别技术,是将田口式信噪比的试验设计方法的一整套思想应用到模式识别的特征变量选择问题上,并通过构建正常样品的基准空间,应用马氏距离值进行样品类别的识别.探讨了马田系统的基本原理,并应用MTGS模型方法对费希尔关于鸢尾花类型的判别问题进行研究,显示了马田系统方法的良好判别分类效果.     

多变量样本的图分析法(一)

<正> 图形是帮助人们思维和判断的重要工具,当样本只有两个特性(变量或指标)时,可以用通常的直角坐标在平面上点图,当样本有三个变量时,虽然可以在三维的笛卡儿坐标里点图,但也是很不方便的,当变量数大于三时,用通常的方法已不能点图了.在多元分析中,样本的变量数一般均大于三,探讨多变量的点图法是长期来一直为人们所关注的研究课题,这里介绍一些有关的方法,特别是近十年来发展的一些方法.     

基于蚁群算法的模糊分类系统设计

提出了一种基于最大-最小蚁群算法的模糊分类系统设计方法.该方法通过两个阶段来实现:特征变量选择和模型参数优化.首先采用蚁群算法对特征变量进行选择,得到一组具有较高分辩性能的特征变量,提高模型的解释性;在模型结构确定后,蚁群算法从训练样本中提取信息对模型的参数进行优化,在保证模型精确性的前提下,构造具有较少变量数目及规则数目的模糊模型,实现了精确性与解释性的折衷.最后将本方法运用到Iris和Wine数据样本分类问题中,并将结果与其它方法进行比较,仿真结果证明了该方法的有效性.     

基于GBMTS算法的不平衡数据分类研究

解决不平衡数据分类问题,在现实中有着深远的意义。马田系统利用单一的正常类别构建基准空间和测量基准尺度,并由此建立数据分类模型,十分适合不平衡数据分类问题的处理。本文以传统马田系统方法为基础,结合信噪比及F-value、G-mean等分类精度,建立了基于遗传算法的基准空间优化模型,同时运用Bagging集成化算法,构造了改进马田系统模型算法GBMTS。通过对不同分类方法及相关数据集的实验分析,表明:GBMTS算法较其他分类算法,更能够有效的处理不平衡数据的分类问题。     

基于Kernel Discriminant Canonical Correlation(KDCC)的多观测样本分类算法

针对多观测样本分类问题,提出一种基于Kernel Discriminant CanonicalCorrelation(KDCC)来实现多观测样本分类的模型.该算法首先把原空间样本非线性的投影到高维特征空间,通过KPCA得到核子空间,然后在高维特征空间定义一个使类内核子空间的相关性最大,同时使类间核子空间的相关性最小的KDCC矩阵,通过迭代法训练出最优的KDCC矩阵,把每个核子空间投影到KDCC矩阵上得到转换核子空间,采用典型相关性作为转换核子空间之间的相似性度量,并采用最近邻准则作为多观测样本的分类决策,从而实现多观测样本的分类.在三个数据库上进行了一系列实验,实验结果表明提出的方法对于多观测样本分类具有可行性和有效性.     

基于多步预测误差的自相关过程统计质量控制

研究了采用多步预测误差构造多变量控制图对自相关过程进行统计质量监控的问题。建立了基于多步预测误差的Hotelling T~2和MEWMA控制图模型,通过仿真分析对这种多变量控制图方法与以往的单变量控制图方法在监控自相关过程时的运行长度进行比对,用以评价控制图的效率.最后通过一个简单的算例说明该方法的使用。     

基于似然比检验的监控多项式曲线的控制图

在统计过程控制的很多应用当中,产品或生产过程的质量特征是通过一个响应变量与一个或多个解释变量之间的关系来刻画,这种关系通常称为曲线关系。很多情况下,这种曲线关系可以通过多项式回归关系来描述.本文中,我们提出了一种基于似然比检验的二阶段多项式曲线控制图,并通过平均运行长度来衡量控制图的性能表现。模拟结果表明,本文提出的多项式曲线控制图具有很好的检测能力。     

中国股市周期性研究及其价格监控

对股市周期性和股市价格的监控和预警的研究有利于给予投资者相关的信息.为了探究股票市场的周期性,引入带虚拟变量的ARMA-TGARCH-M模型来研究中国股市的周期性.为了对股票市场进行监控和预警,利用基于ARMA-TGARCH-M模型的残差控制图来实现对股票市场的监控和预警.实证结果发现:中国股市存在着显著的正的周一和周二效应,这主要是由于周一和周二在消化周末所发布的信息导致的.通过残差控制图对超过控制限的点进行分析发现基于ARMA-TGARCH-M模型的控制图能够很好地捕捉到股票市场的不受控状态.     

采用优化模型指标筛选的马田系统综合评价方法研究

传统的马田系统主要用于分类与诊断.将马田系统作为一种综合评价方法进行研究,分别研究了有基准空间和无基准空间两种情形下的马田系统综合评价方法及步骤.针对传统马田系统变量筛选存在的缺陷,构建多目标规划模型进行评价指标筛选,采用遗传算法求解模型.通过两个实际案例,将马田系统综合评价方法与一些常用的综合评价方法对比研究,结果表明,马田系统可以筛选评价指标和避免指标赋权问题,是一种实用且有效的综合评价方法.     

Distribution‐free precedence control charts with improved runs‐rules

Distribution‐free (nonparametric) control charts are helpful in applications where we do not have enough information about the underlying distribution. The Shewhart precedence charts is a class of Phase I nonparametric charts for location. One of these charts, called the median precedence chart (Med chart hereafter), uses the median of the test sample as the charting statistic, whereas another chart, called the minimum precedence chart (Min chart hereafter), uses the minimum. In this paper, we first study the comparative performance of the Min and the Med charts, respectively, in terms of their in‐control and out‐of‐control run‐length properties in an extensive simulation study. It is seen that neither chart is best as each has its strength in certain situations. Next, we consider enhancing their performance by adding some supplementary runs‐rules. It is seen that the new charts present very attractive run‐length properties, that is, they outperform their competitors in many situations. A summary and some concluding remarks are given. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving the Performance of the Chi-square Control Chart via Runs Rules

The most popular multivariate process monitoring and control procedure used in the industry is the chi-square control chart. As with most Shewhart-type control charts, the major disadvantage of the chi-square control chart, is that it only uses the information contained in the most recently inspected sample; as a consequence, it is not very efficient in detecting gradual or small shifts in the process mean vector. During the last decades, the performance improvement of the chi-square control chart has attracted continuous research interest. In this paper we introduce a simple modification of the chi-square control chart which makes use of the notion of runs to improve the sensitivity of the chart in the case of small and moderate process mean vector shifts.      

MTS法用于上市公司财务质量评估初探

本文应用MTS法(MahananobisTaguchiSystem)于我国股票市场,以评估上市公司的财务质量。通过综合分析深圳和上海1000余家上市公司2000年年度财务报表的15项财务比率发现,利用MTS法提供的技术可以较有效识别存在财务质量以及财务造假问题的公司。     

An evaluation of the multivariate dispersion charts with estimated parameters under non‐normality

Various charts such as |S|, W, and G are used for monitoring process dispersion. Most of these charts are based on the normality assumption, while exact distribution of the control statistic is unknown, and thus limiting distribution of control statistic is employed which is applicable for large sample sizes. In practice, the normality assumption of distribution might be violated, while it is not always possible to collect large sample size. Furthermore, to use control charts in practice, the in‐control state usually has to be estimated. Such estimation has a negative effect on the performance of control chart. Non‐parametric bootstrap control charts can be considered as an alternative when the distribution is unknown or a collection of large sample size is not possible or the process parameters are estimated from a Phase I data set. In this paper, non‐parametric bootstrap multivariate control charts |S|, W, and G are introduced, and their performances are compared against Shewhart‐type control charts. The proposed method is based on bootstrapping the data used for estimating the in‐control state. Simulation results show satisfactory performance for the bootstrap control charts. Ultimately, the proposed control charts are applied to a real case study.     

A new multivariate variability control chart based on a covariance matrix combination

In the field of multivariate quality control, there are many control charts related to the process mean but few options addressing process variability. Variability control charts have two main drawbacks: the first relates to the number of parameters to tune and the second relates to how changes in the mean affect the performance of these charts. Thus, in this paper, we propose a new multivariate variability control chart, called the multivariate exponentially weighted covariance matrix combination, which solves these two problems. The results show that this new chart performs well in the detection of changes in variance when the mean does not change and outperforms other charts when the mean does change.     

Nonparametric Multivariate CUSUM Chart and EWMA Chart Based on Simplicial Data Depth

Simplicial data depth is a useful tool for describing how central a vector is in a multivariate distribution. If the average simplicial depth of a subgroup of observations from a multivariate distribution is too small, it may indicate that a shift in its location or/both scale occurs. In this paper, we propose two new types of nonparametric control charts which are one-sided CUSUM and EWMA control schemes based on simplicial data depth. We also compute the Average Run Length of the CUSUM chart and the EWMA chart by Markov chain method. Recommendations on how to choose the optimal reference value and the smoothing parameter are also given. Comparisons between these two proposed control schemes and the multivariate EWMA are presented.     

Chi-square Control Charts with Runs Rules

The Hotelling’s χ² control chart is one of the most widely used multivariate charting procedures for monitoring the vector of means of several quality characteristics. As a Shewhart-type control chart, it incorporates information pertaining to most recently inspected sample and subsequently it is relatively insensitive in quickly detecting small magnitude shifts in the process mean vector. A popular solution suggested to overcome this handicap was the use of runs and scans rules as criteria to declare a process out-of-control. During the last years, the examination of Hotelling’s χ² control charts supplemented with various runs rules has attracted continuous research interest. In the present article we study the performance of the Hotelling’s χ² control chart supplemented with a r-out-of-m runs rule. The new control chart demonstrates an improved performance over other competitive runs rules based control charts.     

Variable sampling interval Shewhart control charts for monitoring the multivariate coefficient of variation

In many industrial manufacturing processes, the ratio of the variance to the mean of a quantity of interest is an important characteristic to ensure the quality of the processes. This ratio is called the coefficient of variation (CV). A lot of control charts have been designed for monitoring the CV of univariate quantity in the literature. However, the CV control charts for multivariate quantity have not received much attention yet. In this paper, we investigate a variable sampling interval (VSI) Shewhart control chart for monitoring multivariate CV. The time between two consecutive samples is allowed to vary according to the previous value of the multivariate CV, which will help the chart to detect the process shifts faster. The comparison with the fixed sampling interval Shewhart chart is implemented to highlight the advantage of the VSI method. Finally, an illustrative example is demonstrated on real data.