O.R. and Micros: O.R. Workers,Information Systems Analysts and the Challenge of the Micro

An assessment of the effects of microcomputing on O.R. should take account of the impact of micros on other professional groups involved in the provision of information and analysis to managers. The paper examines the likely changes in the role of information systems analysts associated with present trends in computer-based information systems and, by concentrating on the decision support systems area, argues that O.R. workers and systems analysts may find themselves competing for new roles in ways which make if difficult to set out the contribution of each in terms of what they do at present. A modest proposal is made for a new form of team for the development of decision support systems. This incorporates a division of skills which cuts across existing lines of differentiation and foresees an increased contribution on the part of user-managers.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

Some Aspects of Managing O.R. Projects

This paper presents views based on experiences as team member, project leader and Director of a large O.R. group, followed by observing the performance of several O.R. groups and finally as a user of O.R. in the position of part-time director of several companies. It looks at the importance of sponsorship, finding the right sponsor and ensuring that he is well-motivated and understood, the importance of management skills at the project leader level, correct definition of the project objective, thorough planning, selection and presentation of recommendations, implementation and checking the actual pay off. It also discusses the O.R. group as a whole, its place in the organisation, the portfolio of projects, development of O.R. staff and some thoughts on how the method of charging the organisation for O.R. projects may affect the long-term development of this activity. Finally, it presents symptoms of inefficiency and of impending failure of O.R. groups.     

A Materialist Analysis of Operational Research

Accounts of the development and practice of operational research have commonly stressed its timeless universality as a method for rational decision-making. In this paper operational research is seen as one element in the managerial response to problems of complexity and uncertainty within an economic system characterised by institutionalised conflict. Both the material and ideological functions of ‘management science’ in private and public enterprise are analysed, and characteristics are identified of an emergent ‘workers science’. Editor's Note The title of this paper contrasts the materialistic approach with the idealistic approach, and the content of the paper disowns the latter. Evidently there are alternative but overtly political terms for both adjectives.It would be stupid if O.R. were to ignore the political facts of life which play so great a part in the decisions and policies with which O.R. is concerned. But, as the authors acknowledge, other interpretations of history than those presented here are at least possible.Contributions offering alternative schemata, or based on other paradigms, are invited and will be given careful consideration.     

Artificial Intelligence—An Overview of Similarities with O.R.

A brief outline of A.I. is provided, noting problems, techniques and objectives which are similar to those found in O.R. It is intended that this will indicate to O.R. workers which A.I. areas might be worth following up as relevant to their own work and which problems in A.I. might be attacked by the O.R. community as part of the development of intelligent support systems.     

Introducing the Microcomputer into the O.R. Department

This paper reviews the typical main-frame computer services that are currently available and by accepting the alleged advantages of microcomputers postulates the ideal computing requirements of O.R. departments. Experience of microcomputers in O.R. departments, within the N.C.B. and elsewhere, is considered in relation to these ideal requirements. It is concluded that although some main-frame computer services will remain essential to O.R. and accepting that the main-frame can give a reasonable general computing service, the micro offers additional advantages. These include: lower cost and/or better service, the ability to configure the equipment exactly to meet O.R. needs; full control over applications and priorities; and portability - which means that computing power can now be taken direct to the manager by the O.R. department.     

The Art of Course Planning: Soft O.R. in Action

This article is a case study described from two viewpoints: that of an analyst and that of a ‘decision-maker’. It describes the use of two ‘soft O.R.’ methods in helping the members of a university O.R. group to plan revisions to a postgraduate Diploma course, resulting in the implementation of an improved course. One author conducted the exercise while the other was a member of the client group. Given that case studies are usually written by the analyst alone, it is hoped that a client's eye-view will be useful as feedback for practitioners and can also introduce some of the concepts and terminology of soft O.R. to those engaged in more mathematical O.R. activities.     

Lessons for O.R. from A.I.: A Scheduling Case Study

This paper compares operational research (O.R.) with the currently fashionable topic of artificial intelligence (A.I.) at a detailed level. A.I. concepts, techniques and history are summarized, and O.R. and A.I. approaches compared. A case study-the development of a potential aid to scheduling repair jobs on RAF squadrons—is described. The paper shows where A.I. concepts and techniques were used in the prototype program, known as the Fault Identification & Expediting Repair (FIXER) system. Finally, some lessons for O.R. are drawn.     

Formal methods in pattern recognition: A review

There is lot of excitement with Pattern Recognition methods with high precision, since this problem area is a well-established field of Operations Research (O.R.). Recent work of some researchers has shown that O.R. methods in general and Optimisation methods in particular, can be applied to give some very good results. Thus this research area has been won back from the Artificial Intelligence community and is quickly becoming once more a fast growing field in O.R. The aim of this review is to examine the early success of classification methods and Pattern Recognition methods, consider their downfall and examine the new techniques that have been applied to make it like a resurgent Phoenix. It will be shown that optimisation methods, if carried out properly, through a formal analysis of their structure and their requirements can achieve correct classification with probability one. Many researchers make it more difficult for themselves by not considering the formalisation of the task concerned and so adapt heuristics to the problem. Computational methods taken from the Irvine Repository database on recognition instances will be placed in evidence. The outline of the paper is as follows. After the introduction a historical sketch of the field will be presented. Then in Section 3, the need for formal methods will be argued and various results on formal requirements as convergence etc. will be derived. Many of these formal requirements are of course related to the best-unbiased estimate (b.u.e) requirements in Statistics. In Section 4 some popular algorithms for Pattern Recognition will be presented and their degree of satisfaction of the formal requirements stressed, allowing in Section 5 to present many applications, so that conclusions can be reached in Section 6. It will be found that the satisfaction of the formal requirements is a necessary and sufficient condition to reach recognition with probability one.     

The Changing Role of O.R.

The authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.     

The Role of Management Science

Many of the arguments that are found in the literature on the theme "O.R./M.S. in crisis" stem not just from alternative definitions of O.R./M.S., but from differences in strongly held views about its scope and role in organisations, and these are then reflected in the vehemence with which certain definitions are defended or criticised. It is when the hopes and aspirations of O.R./M.S. are compared with what is being achieved in practice, that we realise the degree to which O.R./M.S. has failed to live up to its original promise. In most organisations, O.R. analysts are expected and are happy to act as technicians and not as advisers, so that technique orientation and concern with tactical problems are constantly reinforced. In addition, managers in various functions have become aware of the potential contribution of analytical modelling in their own spheres and have begun to recruit analysts direct, resulting in the possible fragmentation of O.R. and the loss of its unique identity. The responsibilities of O.R./M.S. obviously relate not only to its organisational status, but also to an examination of and an identification with organisational goals. Many O.R. analysts are plainly more comfortable when these goals are clearly defined for them, an attitude which people from other professions will readily endorse, but if O.R./M.S. has any aspirations to get involved in strategic problems, it will have to pose questions about the validity and appropriateness of organisational goals and try to influence the formulation of problems accordingly.     

Health visitors revisited

Cambridgeshire Area Health Authority commissioned a team from the University of Aston Management Centre to carry out an operational research project in order to assist in planning the provision of health visitor services in Peterborough health District. Since Peterborough is a Development Area there has been a rapid increase in population which it is planned will continue for some years. This change in size and age-distribution of the population poses considerable problems for planning the provision of health visitor services.Health visitors are trained nurses who have highly independent roles in the National Health Service. They are largely concerned with preventive work, traditionally with children and increasingly with the elderly, in which it is difficult to set quantitative objectives and measure outputs.This paper will describe the research plan and the models developed. Considerable attention will be paid to the relationship of the research team to the client system, consisting of the Area and District managers and the individual health visitors. The implications of this type of study in extending the practice of O.R. will be considered.     

The Prospect for O.R. in the Nigerian Government Service—An Administrators' Viewpoint

The paper reports the results of interviews with senior government administrators in Nigeria in which they were asked a range of questions about their own work and about the problems that are likely to be encountered in trying to introduce operational research into the government service. It is thus in contrast with most papers on O.R. in developing countries, which are written primarily from the viewpoint of practitioners. The administrators confirmed that there was a wide range of problems recognized as being suitable for the O.R. approach, and identified some of the barriers to the introduction of an effective O.R. service.     

O.R. Education — A Survey of Young O.R. Workers

This paper presents the results of a survey into O.R. education that was conducted with the help of those attending the Young O.R. Conference (YOR II) held at Nottingham University in March 1982. The results of a workshop debate held at the conference into the direction of O.R. education are also discussed.The conclusions drawn are that O.R. education in this country appears to be quite successful but that it is failing to deal satisfactorily with a number of issues. These issues relate to keeping up-to-date with changes in computer technology and their impact upon O.R. workers; the teaching of methodology to deal with ill-defined problems; preparation for the political and working environment of organizations; and the fostering of desirable personal characteristics.     

O.R. Education and Developing Economies with Special Reference to India

The paper reviews the current state of application of O.R. in general and in developed economies in particular. It then analyses the causes for unsatisfactory application of O.R. in developing economies. Based on the analysis, the paper proceeds to review the existing O.R. education and training and develops an integrated design of O.R. education and training for developing economies. The paper outlines the role that international agencies should play in implementing the proposed scheme of O.R. education and training for developing economies.     

-adic power series which commute under composition

When two noninvertible series commute to each other, they have same set of roots of iterates. Most of the results of this paper will be concerned with the problem of which series commute with a given noninvertible series. Our main theorem is a generalization of Lubin's result about isogenies of formal groups.

     

The E.E.C. and the development of O.R.

The growth of the E.E.C. has brought about a change in the scale of many organizational problems and a change in the ways that they can be tackled. Accordingly it is plausible that the techniques of O.R. should develop in response to these changes. This paper examines some desirable developments and suggests ways in which they might be achieved by adapting methods devised in other fields for similar problems.     

The Search for Appropriate O.R.: A Review of Operational Research in Developing Countries

This paper is a review of the literature relating to the application of O.R. in developing countries. The paper attempts to identify the special factors which affect decision problems in developing countries. Some desirable characteristics for O.R. in this context are outlined. The paper then summarises the results of a review of published studies, and some criticisms are made of current O.R. work.     

The Impact of Microcomputers upon O.R.

In this paper we report the results of a survey on the impact of microcomputers (micros) upon O.R. Questionnaires were mailed to 216 O.R. workers throughout the U.K. A response rate of 35% was achieved. Nearly half of the groups surveyed have a ratio of at least one micro to one user. These micros are mainly used for spreadsheets, programming, graphics and word-processing.     

O.R. and Public Expenditure Planning and Control

The problems of public expenditure planning and control to which O.R. can make a contribution are identified. Suggestions are made for research by those in O.R. both within government and in universities. Recent work in the Treasury on financial models and information systems are discussed in terms of how such work might be applied elsewhere and extended to include measures of achievement. The topics covered include planning for uncertainty and theory development by O.R. in models of inflation and social justice.