Estimating consumers' willingness to pay for individual quality attributes with DEA

In a highly competitive environment, a product's commercial success depends increasingly more upon the ability to satisfy consumers' preferences that are highly diversified. Since a product typically comprises a host of technological attributes, its market value incorporates all of the individual values of technological attributes. If the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for individual quality attributes of a product is known, one can conjecture the overall WTP or the imputed market price for the product. The market price listed by the producer has to be equal to or lower than this WTP for the commercial survival of the product. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating the value of individual product characteristics and thus the overall WTP of the product with DEA. Our methodology is based on a model derived from consumer demand theory on the one hand, and the recent developments in DEA on the other hand. The paper also presents a real case study for the mobile phone market, which is characterized by its high speed of innovation. On the theoretical side, we expect our framework to provide a possibility of combining DEA and consumer demand theory. We also expect that the empirical application will shed some light on the nature of the process of product differentiation based on consumers' valuation.     

基于数据包络分析方法的上市银行盈利效率研究

银行是我国金融市场的主导力量。银行的一举一动对金融市场,乃至整体经济运行均有重要的影响。特别是在经济进入新常态,金融深化改革的新环境下,研究银行的效率,既是银行发展的内在需要,也是宏观经济的必然需求。本文基于银行所有者的角度,以资本金和不良贷款作为投入,利息收入和非利息收入作为产出,测算2015年16家上市银行的盈利效率,结果表明:上市银行盈利的纯技术效率普遍较高,规模效率受规模因素影响较显著;国有商业银行的规模效率低,导致其技术效率偏低。对于大型银行,规模已经成为影响盈利技术效率的重要因素之一。     

Designing win-win financial loan products for consumers and businesses

With the many possible designs that a financial company can offer to a consumer (eg terms, price, quality, features), a company can identify win-win products for both the consumer and the company. A key to identifying win-win products is to explicitly integrate the consumer's preferences for price and quality with the company's preferences for profit and market share. This paper builds a model that identifies the set of win-win products by integrating the preferences of buyer and seller. For any product not in this set, there is at least one product in the set that is better for both buyer and seller. The company's preferences are then used to select the optimal offer from the win-win set. Our development logically derives the results by focusing on financial products (eg loans, mortgages, credit cards) to consumers in the multitrillion dollar retail credit business.     

OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL TAXES: EFFECTS OF POLLUTION DECAY AND CONSUMER AWARENESS

Abstract The effects of nonlinear decay and consumer preferences are analyzed in a setting where optimal extraction of nonrenewable resources is combined with stock externalities. The control is exercised via a corrective tax and the time horizon is divided into two periods: an initial phase with extraction and a terminal phase without extraction. The time horizon with extraction is determined endogenously. The model does not assume separability of the objective function. The purpose here is to demonstrate that relatively simple deviations from the standard assumptions, such as linear decay and no consumer awareness, may have large effects. Sensitivity analyses indicate large differences in the optimal extraction period, the total level of extraction and cumulative emissions depending on the form of the decay function and the presence of consumers' awareness for the environment.     

Understanding consumer adoption of broadband: an extension of the technology acceptance model

Broadband offers several benefits to consumers over its preceding technology ‘narrowband’. Despite it offering such benefits, many countries are still experiencing low levels of adoption of broadband technology by consumers. This study presents an extended technology acceptance model (TAM) that integrates perceived resources, self-efficacy and social influence into the TAM in order to investigate factors determining consumer adoption of broadband. The model was empirically tested employing data collected from a survey of broadband consumers in the United Kingdom. A regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of predictive constructs on behavioural intention to adopt broadband and actual adoption behaviour. Findings of the study indicated that all variables significantly affected consumers' behavioural intention to adopt broadband. The outcomes of the paper will be useful for the stakeholders such as internet service providers and governments interested in encouraging the adoption of broadband. The implications of this work to both researchers and practitioners is discussed.     

经济政策不确定性、金融市场压力与黄金市场的溢出效应研究

基于信息溢出视角,本文采用溢出指数模型,考察经济政策不确定性、金融市场压力与黄金市场溢出效应的强度和方向,并结合滚动窗口检验,捕捉溢出效应的时变特征。此外,本文还研究21个代表性国家经济政策不确定性与金融市场压力、黄金市场双向溢出效应的异质性。实证结果表明：经济政策不确定性、金融市场压力与黄金市场之间的溢出效应呈现显著的时变特征,溢出效应在金融危机期间呈现快速上升趋势,且体现为经济政策不确定性、金融市场压力对黄金市场的净溢出,金融市场压力在溢出效应中起着更重要的作用;正向的金融市场压力冲击比负向的金融市场压力冲击带来的溢出效应更大;各国的经济政策不确定性对黄金市场存在净溢出效应,但不同国家在溢出强度和规模上呈现出差异性。     

混合回归模型在百货商店市场细分中的应用

基于国内20家大型百货商店消费者满意调查数据,本文采用混合回归模型,对百货商店的消费者进行市场细分研究,发现百货商店的消费者可以分为6个差异化的细分市场.同时对每个细分市场的需求特征及市场规模进行了描述,并探讨了消费者人口统计变量与所属细分市场的关系.     

MODELING THE EFFECT OF RARITY VALUE ON THE EXPLOITATION OF A WILDLIFE SPECIES SUBJECTED TO THE ALLEE EFFECT

The overexploitation of wildlife species is a serious problem in the field of biodiversity conservation. The species subjected to natural Allee effects are even more threatened by exploitation. Moreover, for many wildlife species, their rarity can fuel their exploitation by making them disproportionately desirable and consequently increasing their market price. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study how the value that consumers place on rarity can threaten the survival of a species subjected to natural Allee effects. It is assumed that the value of a species increases as its density declines. The analysis of model shows that the increase in the consumers' response to rarity can drive the system to admit Hopf‐bifurcation and heteroclinic bifurcation. The occurrence of the heteroclinic cycle indicates that the increase in consumers' response to rarity can cause the extinction of the species. It is found that an increase in the Allee threshold causes a decrease in the threshold value of consumers' response below which extinction is inevitable.     

ZIPMAP — A Zero-One Integer Programming Model for Market Segmentation and Product Positioning

An optimization model is proposed to aid marketing managers to search for and develop new product brand ideas. The model, which is founded on individual consumer behaviour constructs, determines a position for a new brand, in the consumers' perceptual space of product attributes, that maximizes company sales. The resulting mathematical model is stated as a large-scale, mixed, zero-one, integer, non-linear mathematical programming problem whose solution is sought through a two-stage optimization approach.     

Commercial branch performance evaluation and results communication in a Canadian bank––a DEA application

In this paper, we focus on evaluating the performance of the commercial branches of a large Canadian bank using data envelopment analysis. Two production models are considered in this country-wide evaluation. One model, looking directly at resource usage, is most useful to the branch manager. The other model, incorporating financial results, is more geared towards senior management. We introduce non-discretionary factors to reflect specific aspects of the environment a branch is operating in, such as risk and economic growth rate of the region. Both input and output multipliers are constrained by incorporating market prices as well as managerial preferences, in order to get effectiveness measures. The cost-minimisation study led to valuable results pertaining to the performance of individual branches. Notable is the methodology introduced here that shows how to present graphical and numeric outcomes to managers. Gap maps, pie charts and target tables are produced for each branch to provide performance goals for the managers. Useful information has also been obtained at the district level. Output oriented models were analysed to reflect the Bank's recent emphasis towards growth in some areas.     

A hierarchical elimination modeling approach for market structure analysis

A brand-switching model is developed based on a hierarchical elimination decision process. The model incorporates consumers' first-order variety seeking (avoidance) behavior. Some interesting properties of the model are derived and using these properties, it is shown that the model can be used to infer market structure from brand switching data. Finally, the proposed approach is compared with other approaches for inferring market structure suggested in the extant literature.     

基于贝叶斯学习的最优互联网化房地产金融合约

房地产金融的互联网化是当前金融市场创新的重要方向。本文采用动态道德风险理论研究了互联网化房地产金融合约的最优性及其经济特征,并以动态合约的视角考虑了参与方的贝叶斯学习对互联网化房地产金融最优性的影响。研究发现,为了激励资信良好的融资方努力工作且排除资信欠佳的融资方,互联网化房地产金融合约不仅需权衡激励成本和收益以确定适当的努力激励强度,而且还需考虑因融资方的信息优势带来的信息租金。     

基于模糊影响图的我国居民消费水平的评价研究

为了评价我国居民消费水平的变动及其影响因素之间的相互作用及影响,本文运用模糊影响图的方法,从需求方面、基础设施、经济环境、政策环境以及消费者自身五个方面选取了影响消费的十六个指标,并对这些指标进行评价分析。结果表明,我国居民消费水平增长幅度缓慢,无明显变化。根据这一评价结果,结合消费影响因素影响图的拓扑结构得出,对外开放程度、社会保障水平、消费习惯以及居民受教育程度是导致消费增长缓慢的主要原因,进而提出对策建议。为今后提高我国居民消费水平方面的研究和我国相关政策的实施提供了理论借鉴和实践指导。     

Modelling and measuring the irrational behaviour of agents in financial markets: Discovering the psychological soliton

Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We specifically discuss the role of financial news or economic information positive or negative feedback of such irrational (or contrarian) agents upon the price evolution. We observe a kink-like effect reminiscent of soliton behaviour, suggesting how analysts' forecasts errors induce stock prices to adjust accordingly, thereby proposing a measure of the irrational force in a market.     

On Fuzzy Portfolio Selection Problems

The uncertainty of a financial market is traditionally dealt with probabilistic approaches. However, there are many non-probabilistic factors that affect the financial markets. A number of empirical studies showed limitation of using probabilistic approaches in characterizing the uncertainty of the financial markets. Fuzzy set is a powerful tool used to describe an uncertain environment with vagueness, ambiguity or some other type of fuzziness, which are always involved in not only the financial markets but also the behavior of the financial managers' decisions. In a financial optimization model using fuzzy approaches, quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts' knowledge and the managers' subjective opinions can be better integrated. In this paper, we give an overview on the development of fuzzy portfolio selection to date. Some related problems that might deserve further investigations are also discussed.     

A consumer purchasing model with learning and departure behaviour

The purpose of this paper is to extend the model of negative binominal distribution used in consumer purchasing models so as to incorporate the consumer's learning and departure behaviours. The regularity of interpurchase time and its unobserved heterogeneity are also included. Due to these extensions, this model can be used to determine during a given period how many purchases are made by an experienced or an inexperienced customer. This model also allows the determination of the probability that a customer with a given pattern of purchasing behaviour still remains, or has departed, at any time after k≥1 purchases are made. An illustration of the approach is conducted using consumer purchase data for tea. As assessed by comparing results with Theil's U, the integrated model developed gives the best results and shows that learning and departure are important factors which influence consumer's purchase behaviour, especially, when evaluating the behaviour of inexperienced customers.     

中国股票市场行业间波动溢出非对称效应研究——基于“好的波动”和“坏的波动”分析

选取上证系列行业指数的五分钟数据, 基于广义预测误差方差分解方法构建了波动溢出指数和波动溢出非对称指数(SAM), 研究了10个行业间波动溢出的时变性和非对称性。结果表明, 股票市场各行业间波动溢出存在显著的非对称性和时变性, 多数时期“坏的波动”下的溢出效应占据主导地位。静态分析显示, 股票市场各行业间具有高的波动溢出效应, 可选消费行业是市场波动的最重要来源;动态分析显示, 原材料、工业、可选消费业是波动溢出的净输出者, 金融地产业是净输入者, 电信业务、公用事业和医药卫生等行业对利空消息的传递更为明显, 可选消费行业对利好消息的传递更为有效。纳入标普500指数前后各行业溢出贡献度的对比表明研究结论具有稳健性。     

经理管理防御会影响公司股价同步性吗?

经理人固守职位衍生的管理防御问题是长期困扰公司发展的重要议题。然而,现有研究多将重点置于管理防御如何影响企业财务决策,而对于其是否会影响资本市场则缺乏足够关注。以2007～2018年中国A股上市公司为样本,依据“防御动机→行为选择→经济后果”的逻辑思路,基于股价同步性的视角,考察经理管理防御影响资本市场的客观表现与内在机理。研究发现,公司股价同步性随着经理管理防御水平的提高而显著上升,该结论在控制内生性问题之后依然稳健;影响路径的检验结果表明：经理管理防御对股价同步性的影响通过：(1)经理管理防御→信息操纵→股价同步性;(2)经理管理防御→内幕交易→股价同步性等两条路径得以实现。异质性检验的结论显示,经理管理防御对公司股价同步性的正影响,在未聘请“四大”审计机构和非国有企业的样本中更为显著。上述研究结论不仅从管理防御这一微观层面拓展了股价同步性影响因素领域的文献研究,而且对于提升资本市场配置效率,实现新阶段下中国金融改革的目标,具有一定的指导意义。     

Multicriteria analysis in agricultural marketing: The case of French olive oil market

Agribusiness industries face a stiff competition originating mainly from the EU trade barrier’s removal and the rapidly changing marketing environment of the single European market. Therefore, certain need has been identified towards the development and proper utilization of updated market research tools and methodologies in the field of agricultural marketing. The aim of this paper is to show the usefulness of multicriteria approach in analyzing consumer’s preference data and its ability to support new product development processes by agricultural firms. The paper outlines first the philosophy of agricultural marketing by emphasizing on the features, which differentiate it from general marketing. Several methodological issues in agricultural marketing are then presented through a state-of-the art survey. Then, the paper develops a consumer-based methodology to support product development decisions where the key-role is played to determine the preference model which explains a single consumer’s ranking; a decision support system summarizes the analysis on the whole set of interviewed consumers to prescribe the `ideal' profile of a new product and to simulate its penetration strategy into the market. Results from the application of the methodology to a survey data base coming from the Paris olive oil market are presented. Finally, the paper concludes with some recommendations about marketing practice in agribusiness.