Inventory and sales effort management under unobservable lost sales

A retailer needs to make decisions regarding how much to order and how much sales effort to exert in an environment with uncertain demand. One intrinsic complexity in a typical retail environment is caused by the fact that the retailer can obtain information about demand only based on sales, as demand itself is unobservable. Taking a Bayesian approach, Lariviere and Porteus (1999) show that in such a setting a retailer should stock more to increase the probability of an exact demand observation. In this article, we extend their work by allowing the retailer to control both the stocking quantity and sales effort, which can be used to affect demand. We show that their insights with respect to information stalking carry over to this setting. In addition, our model allows gaining a better understanding of optimal sales effort strategies. We find that demand management has a dual role in supporting information gathering: while at the beginning of a product life cycle it is optimal to support learning effects by sharply reducing sales effort, at later stages of the product life cycle an aggressive strategy of increased promotional activities can be used to harvest the information gathered in earlier periods.     

Mathematical modeling and bifurcation analysis of pro- and anti-tumor macrophages

More and more evidences show that macrophages can induce both pro-tumor and anti-tumor effects. The study on genetically engineered macrophages to kill tumor cells has become a new direction for anti-cancer therapy in recent years. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model of interactions between tumor cells, M1 and M2 macrophages, and study the stability and bifurcations around the interior equilibrium. It is shown that the model exhibits stable periodic oscillations bifurcating from Hopf bifurcation, which indicates the long-term coexistence of tumor cells, M1 and M2 macrophages as well as long-term tumor relapse. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the effect of parameters on tumor size. Our results show that an increase in ξ (the ratio of activation rates by tumor cells of M2/M1 macrophages) leads to a decrease of tumor cells, which can be explained that ξ has significant effects on γ₁ (the transition rate from M1 to M2 macrophages) and γ₂ (the transition rate from M2 to M1 macrophages). Hence, the decay of tumor cells is not only the result of direct activation of M1 and M2 macrophages by tumor cells, but also the combined effect of the transition between M1 and M2 macrophages.     

Data Surrogation Error in p-Median Models

The p-median model locates facilities to provide optimal service to target populations. Where, for some reason, an inappropriate variable is used to stand in for a target population's demand, less than ideal facility systems can result. This effect is termed surrogation error. In this paper, I introduce this concept and perform an experiment which, with data for 25 Canadian cities, demonstrates that significant surrogation error can occur if general population is used in place of children or senior populations. I identify some of the correlates of surrogation error and conclude with a warning to location scientists to be conscious of, and to try to avoid, this problem.     

Relative impatience determines preference between contract bargaining and repeated bargaining

In this paper we consider the effect of the `impatience ratio' I (of the worker discount factor to the firm discount factor) on the preferences of the players between two bargaining schemes in an asymmetric information wage bargaining context. The firm has private information about the worker's value and the worker makes wage demands. In the contact bargaining scheme, a wage demand which is accepted in one period is binding for all future periods (and hence the bargaining ends after acceptance of a wage demand). In the repeated bargaining scheme, the parties continue to bargain irrespective of whether the worker has been hired or not, and any accepted wage demand is only valid for the period in which it was accepted. We establish the following results under the assumption that the worker's value is uniformly distributed on an interval: When the firm is more patient than the worker (I<1) both parties prefer contract bargaining, and when the worker is more patient than the firm (I >1) both prefer repeated bargaining. For any value of I, the preferred type of bargaining gives the lower unemployment.  The work of Bae has already shown that when players are equally patient (I=1) the players are indifferent between the two schemes, regardless of the distribution of the worker's value. This paper shows that Bae's indifference result (Bae, 1991) cannot be extended to unequally patient players. Received: December 1996/Final version: October 1998     

Martinaxiom und die Beschreibung gewisser Homomorphismen in der Theorie der ℵ1-freien abelschen Gruppen

P(I) denotes the abelian group of integer-valuated functions defined on the set I, P_κ (I) its subgroup consisting of all elements, which support has size less than the infinite cardinal κ and Q_κ (I) the quotient P(I)/P_κ(I). We formulate a statement I(κ) in the following way: For an arbitrary set I you can lift every homomorphism from P (?) to Q_κ(I) to a homomorphism from P(?) to P(I). Using Martin's Axiom we show, that L(?) is independent of ZFC.     

A Game Related to the Number of Hides Game

In this paper, we study a discrete search game on an array of N ordered cells, with two players having opposite goals: player I (searcher) and player II (hider). Player II has to hide q objects at consecutive cells and player I can search p consecutive cells. The payoff to player I is the number of objects found by him. In some situations, the players need to adopt sophisticated strategies if they are to act optimally.     

Pricing/inventory decisions and profit shares in a non-integrated marketing channel for a single-period product

We consider the situation in which the manufacturer of a single-period product first sets the unit wholesale price and then the retailer responds with an order size. We present mostly analytical results on the effects of the problem's environmental parameters (such as shortage cost and demand uncertainty) on the optimal decisions (ie, the unit wholesale price and retailer's order size) and on the expected profits of the manufacturer and of the retailer. Some of these effects are counter-intuitive and/or contradict related results published recently for similar models. The most important finding is that demand uncertainty is always harmful to the manufacturer but is very often beneficial to the retailer. This means that when the manufacturer can set the wholesale price, the manufacturer should be much more supportive (or even aggressive) than previously advised towards activities such as market surveys and ‘Quick Response’ that reduce the retailer's market uncertainty; in contrast, the retailer need not be as enthusiastic about these activities.     

Simulating brain tumor heterogeneity with a multiscale agent-based model: Linking molecular signatures,phenotypes and expansion rate

We have extended our previously developed 3D multi-scale agent-based brain tumor model to simulate cancer heterogeneity and to analyze its impact across the scales of interest. While our algorithm continues to employ an epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene–protein interaction network to determine the cells’ phenotype, it now adds an implicit treatment of tumor cell adhesion related to the model’s biochemical microenvironment. We simulate a simplified tumor progression pathway that leads to the emergence of five distinct glioma cell clones with different EGFR density and cell ‘search precisions’. The in silico results show that microscopic tumor heterogeneity can impact the tumor system’s multicellular growth patterns. Our findings further confirm that EGFR density results in the more aggressive clonal populations switching earlier from proliferation-dominated to a more migratory phenotype. Moreover, analyzing the dynamic molecular profile that triggers the phenotypic switch between proliferation and migration, our in silico oncogenomics data display spatial and temporal diversity in documenting the regional impact of tumorigenesis, and thus support the added value of multi-site and repeated assessments in vitro and in vivo. Potential implications from this in silico work for experimental and computational studies are discussed.     

On the modelling of finite growth considering the mechanics of cell division

Mitotic cells grow in volume and divide themselves into two identical cells producing at macroscopic scale a volume expansion in living bodies. Due to inhomogeneous distributions of the growth factors, growth occurs at different rates and directions. Focusing into the direction of growth, some living bodies alter their growing behaviour influenced by mechanical loads. If loads appear during the growth process, cell division is reorientated following the main direction of the elastic deformations. Therefore, new cells will be created in this direction while relaxing the stress state of the body at the same time. In this work, we present a modelling approach for growing bodies which change their growth direction depending on mechanical loads. The model is implemented into a finite element framework to be an useful tool for predicting morphological changes in growing bodies. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Quick response policy with Bayesian information updates

In this paper we investigate the quick response (QR) policy with different Bayesian models. Under QR policy, a retailer can collect market information from the sales of a pre-seasonal product whose demand is closely related to a seasonal product’s demand. This information is then used to update the distribution for the seasonal product’s demand by a Bayesian approach. We study two information update models: one with the revision of an unknown mean, and the other with the revision of both an unknown mean and an unknown variance. The impacts of the information updates under both models are compared and discussed. We also identify the features of the pre-seasonal product which can bring more significant profit improvement. We conclude that an effective QR policy depends on a precise information update model as well as a selection of an appropriate pre-seasonal product as the observation target.     

An inventory model: What is the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution?

In this paper the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution is studied for a specific inventory model which is described in a preceding paper by Heuts and van Lieshout [4]. This continuous review inventory model uses as lead time demand distribution a Schmeiser-Deutsch distribution (S-D distribution) [9]. In a previous paper [4] an algorithm was given to solve the decision problem.In the literature attention is given to the following problem: what information on the demand during the lead time is necessary and sufficient to obtain good decisions. Using a (s, S) policy; Naddor [8] concluded that thespecific form of the lead time demand distribution is negligible, and that only its first two moments are essential. For a simple (s, q) control system Fortuin [3] comes to the same conclusion. Both authors analysed the case with known lead times and with given demand distributions from the class of two parameter distributions. So in fact their results are obvious, as the lead time demand distributions resulting from their suppositions are all nearly symmetric. We shall demonstrate that the skewness of the lead time demand distribution in our inventory model is also an important measure, which should be taken into account, as the cost differences with regard to the case where this skewness measure is not used, can be considerable.     

On the Effects of Risk Pooling in Supply Chain Management： Review and Extensions

The primary challenge in supply chain management （SCM） is matching supply with uncertain demand. Risk pooling is an efficient and promising strategy to meet this challenge by reducing the underlying demand uncertainty through aggregation. The main focus of this paper is to analyze the effects of risk pooling under different supply chain settings. There are two main contributions. First, we propose a mathematical framework which serves the multi-purpose of （1） unifying existing models on risk pooling in the literature, （2） providing new facets and insights of understanding existing results on risk pooling, and （3） setting up new ground for extending existing models and results. Second; we investigate one interesting effect of risk pooling, namely, the decreasing marginal return （or supermodularity）. We show that there are decreasing marginal returns in risk pooling practices under certain conditions, specifically when the demand is independent and identically distributed （I.I.D.） and normally distributed.     

Optimal timing decisions for the introduction of new technologies

High technology industries, such as the communications industry, are characterized by frequent development of new technologies. These new technologies are often available before the capacities of existing facilities that use an old technology are exhausted. Whenever a new technology facility is introduced, a fixed set-up cost is generally incurred; however, the annual operating costs are often reduced. The optimal timing of the introduction of new facilities is therefore of interest.In this paper, we examine such timing decisions. The study was motivated by an application involving electronic plug-in units that enhance the operation of communication facilities. First, we develop optimal timing decisions for linearly growing demand. The analysis is then extended to nonlinear demand. For linear demand, one of two decisions is optimal: Either introduce the new technology immediately, or as late as possible. However, for nonlinear demand, these decisions may be nonoptimal.     

Bier Spheres and Posets

In 1992 Thomas Bier presented a strikingly simple method to produce a huge number of simplicial (n – 2)-spheres on 2n vertices, as deleted joins of a simplicial complex on n vertices with its combinatorial Alexander dual. Here we interpret his construction as giving the poset of all the intervals in a boolean algebra that “cut across an ideal.” Thus we arrive at a substantial generalization of Bier’s construction: the Bier posets Bier(P, I) of an arbitrary bounded poset P of finite length. In the case of face posets of PL spheres this yields cellular “generalized Bier spheres.” In the case of Eulerian or Cohen–Macaulay posets P we show that the Bier posets Bier(P, I) inherit these properties. In the boolean case originally considered by Bier, we show that all the spheres produced by his construction are shellable, which yields “many shellable spheres,” most of which lack convex realization. Finally, we present simple explicit formulas for the g-vectors of these simplicial spheres and verify that they satisfy a strong form of the g-conjecture for spheres.     

Naturalising Austin

In this paper I will try to defend a quasi-naturalistic interpretation of J.L. Austin’s work. I will rely on P. Kitcher’s 1992 paper “The Naturalists Return” to compile four general criteria by which a philosopher can be called a naturalist. Then I will turn to Austin’s work and examine whether he meets these criteria. I will try to claim that versions of such naturalistic elements can be found in his work.     

Remarks on the Interest-relative Theory of Vagueness

I discuss the interest-relative account of vagueness and argue for a distinction between relational vague predicates and non-relational vague predicates depending on the kind of properties expressed by them. The strategy rests on three arguments arising from the existence of clear cases of a vague predicate, from contexts in which a different answer is required for questions about whether a vague predicate applies to an item, and whether such an item satisfies the interest of an agent, and from cases where an object changes up to the point of becoming P, where P is a vague predicate. In the second part of the paper, I distinguish between relational properties and non-relational properties, and I argue for the view that some vague predicates can express non-relational properties, comparative relational properties and interest-relative properties. On the basis of these arguments, I conclude that vagueness cannot be reduced to interest-relativity.     

竞争型“以旧换再”闭环供应链策略选择及生产决策研究

针对两阶段闭环供应链系统,研究了古诺竞争型闭环供应链中的“以旧换再”策略选择问题。研究发现:(1)企业如何及何时实施“以旧换再”策略取决于自身及竞争企业的再制造水平。再制造水平不仅影响了企业的“以旧换再”数量,同时还会影响产品市场份额及利润。(2)“以旧换再”策略可以提高企业竞争力,增加企业产品市场份额和提高收益;(3)提高 “以旧换再”补贴及再制造产品接受度, 降低“二手市场”价格,均可以降低企业实施“以旧换再”策略和提高企业的“以旧换再”数量。     

Day-to-day evolution of the traffic network with Advanced Traveler Information System

Since the notion of user equilibrium (UE) was proposed by Wardrop [13], it has become a cornerstone for traffic assignment analysis. But, it is not sufficient to only ask whether equilibrium exists or not; it is equally important to ask whether and how the system can achieve equilibrium. Meanwhile, stability is an important performance in the sense that if equilibrium is unsustainable, both the equilibrium and the trajectory are sensitive to disturbances, even a small perturbation will result in the system evolution away from the equilibrium point. These incentive a growing interest in day-to-day dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamical system with Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) and study the stability of the network with ATIS. A simple network is used to simulate the model, and the results show that there exist periodic attractors in the traffic network in some cases (for example, the market penetration level of ATIS is 0.25 and traffic demand is 2 unit). It is found that the logit parameter of the dynamical model and the traffic demand can also affect the stability of the traffic network. More periodic attractors appear in the system when the traffic demand is large and the low logit parameter can delay the appearance of periodic attractors. By simulation, it can be concluded that if the range of the periodic attractors’ domain of the simple network is known, the road pricing based on the range of the attraction domain is effective to alleviate the instability of the system.     

A quadratic network optimization model for equilibrium single commodity trade flows

When supply and demand curves for a single commodity are approximately linear in each ofN regions and interregional transportation costs are linear, then equilibrium trade flows can be computed by solving a quadratic program of special structure. An equilibrium trade flow exists in which the routes carrying positive flow form a forest, and this solution can be efficiently computed by a tree growing algorithm.     

Supply of harmonic functions of an infinite number of variables. I

The infinite-dimensional Laplacian (introduced by P. Levy in 1922) has a number of unusual properties. In particular, the supply of harmonic functions of an infinite number of variables connected with this Laplacian is exceptionally large. In this paper, with the help of estimates of the growth of sums of dependent random variables we get (in a certain sense) optimal conditions for functions on a Hilbert space to be harmonic.Translated from Ukrainskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 42, No. 11, pp. 1576–1579, November, 1990.