海气系统异常与广东夏季旱涝的关系

利用广东境内分布较均匀的15个测站的降水资料,分析了热带东太平洋地区的海温和南海海温的变化对广东夏季(5～8月,下同)降水的影响,旱(涝)年的前期和同期的大气环流差异,以及广东夏季降水的周期性。结果表明,在ENSO年广东偏涝,而在ENSO次年则偏旱;热带东太平洋年平均△SST与广东夏季降水存在显著的反相关关系;旱年的前期(当年的2～3月)南海海温较涝年偏低;亚洲主要大气环流系统的位置和强度的变化趋势在旱年和涝年的前冬以及同期几乎是相反的;广东夏季降水存在准2～3年、6～7年、34年和11年振荡周期。     

Correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation Index in winter and eastern China Flood/Drought Index in summer in the last 530 years

The time series of winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index （NAOI） in the period of 1429-1983 developed by Glueck and summer Flood/Drought Index （FDI） of eastern China in the period of 1470-1999 from I00 stations are used in this paper to study the potential impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the climate in China. The analysis has explored some significant lag correlations between FDI and NAOI. The maximum positive correlation coefficients between NAOI and area-mean FDI in eastern and northern China lagging 2-3 years reach at 0.001 significance level, and while there are also negative correlation between NAOI and FDI in central and southern China at significance level of 0.05-0.01. The correlation between FDI and NAOI is time-dependent, i.e. the correlation coefficients between two indices vary from period to period. The highest correlation appeared in the period of 1636-1742, around the Little Ice Age, with the significant level of far above 0.001. The second significant period was from 1951 to 1999, at the level of 0.005-0.002. Both the power spectrum analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation have presented an interesting phenomenon： the area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern China share almost the same oscillation periods with NAOI in the inter-annual, decadal and centurial scales＇ oscillations, i.e. 4-5, about I0, 20-30, around 50 and 80-100 years, etc. The Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic test reveals the significant trend and decadal abrupt changes in the series of area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern China in the past 530 years, while the NAOI in the past 400 years, did not show such trend at the significance level, but presented more frequent changes than those of FDI in China. This difference is perhaps due to the fact that the amplitude of the extremes of reconstructed NAOI series is less than that from instrumental records.     

Siliceous microplankton fluxes and seasonal variations in the central South China Sea during 1993-1995:monsoon climate and El Ni(n)o responses

Seasonal variations of radiolarian and diatom fluxes in the central South China Sea during 1993-1995 were overwhelmingly controlled by monsoon climate. Radiolarian and diatom increased obviously during the Northeast (from November to February) and Southwest (from June to September) monsoons and decreased during the periods between the monsoons. The change of circulation driven by the monsoons improved water exchange in the different areas that brought rich nutrient materials for the surface microplankton, thereby enhancing radiolarian and diatom fluxes. Variation of radiolarian flux coincided with organic carbon flux, surface primary and export productivities. High radiolarian flux corresponded to high surface primary productivity. Radiolarian and diatom fluxes raised abnormally during 1994-1995 could be attributed to the El Ni(n)o event during the period.     

Connection between interannual variability of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans in the 1997 - 1998 El Nino event

In this paper, the sea surface height and the heat content of the upper ocean are analyzed to retrieve the relationship of interannual variabilities between the tropical western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans during the 1997 - 1998 El Nino event. In the prophase of this El Nino, the negative sea level anomalies (SLA) occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) firstly, and then appeared in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEI). The negative heat content anomalies (HCA) emerged in the TWP before this El Nino burst while the SLA signals developed over there. During the mature stage of this El Nino, two kinds of signals in the TWP and TEI turned to be the maximum negative sequently. Due to the connected interannual adjustment between the TEI and TWP, we adopted a method to estimate the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport by calculating the HCA budget in the TEI. The indirect estimation of the ITF was comparable to the observation values. Therefore, the anomalies in the TEI had been proved as adv     

Export and remineralization of POM in the Southern Ocean and the South China Sea estimated from ~(210)Po/~(210)Pb disequilibria

Disequilibria between 210Po and 210Pb in the upper water and their potential applications as a proxy of particle export and remineralization were examined in the Southern Ocean (station IV3) and the South China Sea (NS44). 210Po was deficit in surface waters but excessive relative to 210Pb in subsurface waters. Good positive correlation between 210Po and particulate organic carbon (POC) indicated deficits and excess of 210Po resulted from particulate organic matter (POM) export and remineralization respecti...     

公司价值与投入资本收益率、增长率关系的实证研究

以上证180指数中180个公司作为样本，对1998～2002年期间公司市值／帐面值比率(市净率，P／B)和增长率、投入资本收益率和资本成本的差幅之间的关系进行了实证研究．研究表明，市场倾向于根据销售增长与投入资本收益率和资本成本的差幅来对公司价值进行评估．P／B比率相对平均差幅的回归的R^2达到35．2％，即对于任何增长水平而言，差幅越大，P／B比率就越大．研究亦指出，对相同的差幅水平而言，随着增长率水平的提高，P／B比率的变动趋势不明显．相比较而言，差幅比增长率更为重要．     

广西崇左叉叶苏铁野生和迁地保护种群的遗传多样性比较分析

叉叶苏铁[Cycas bifida （Dyer） K.D.Hill]为国家一级重点保护野生植物,了解广西崇左叉叶苏铁野生种群和迁地保护种群的遗传多样性和遗传结构,可为其种质资源的保护及管理提供指导。本研究利用筛选得到的6对稳定且多态性良好的Simple Sequence Repeat （SSR）引物,对位于崇左的4个叉叶苏铁野生种群和迁至桂林的1个叉叶苏铁迁地保护种群共109个个体的遗传多样性和遗传结构进行分析。结果表明： 4个野生种群的观测等位基因数平均值为2.875,有效等位基因数平均值为1.796,Shannon信息指数平均值为0.637,观测杂合度平均值为0.363,期望杂合度平均值为0.373,说明广西崇左叉叶苏铁遗传多样性水平较低。迁地保护种群的观测等位基因数、有效等位基因数、Shannon信息指数、观测杂合度和期望杂合度分别为3.000、1.865、0.686、0.323和0.391,说明迁地保护能提高叉叶苏铁遗传多样性。遗传结构中群体间遗传呈中度分化（0.134）,种群间遗传变异占25%,种群内遗传变异占75%,遗传变异主要来源于种群内。非加权组平均法（Unweighted Pair-Group Method with Arithmetic means,UPGMA）、主坐标分析（Principal Co-ordinates Analysis,PCoA）和Structure分析表明109份样品可分为2类,迁地保护种群ZWS和野外种群PR为一类,其余3个种群为一类。野生种群中MALL的群体遗传多样性最高（Shannon信息指数为0.711,期望杂合度为0.394）,应将该种群作为重点保护单元进行保护。迁地保护种群ZWS的Shannon信息指数和期望杂合度均高于野生种群平均值,但Shannon信息指数略低于野生种群MALL,期望杂合度略低于野生种群MALL和YCLL。建议继续加强野生种群MALL和YCLL种群资源的引种工作,以便更有效地保护叉叶苏铁的遗传资源。