Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem

Most of the approaches to decision problems under uncertainty are based on decision paradigms, generally associated to an optimization process that leads to a final solution. For the Decision Maker, the basic decision is thus what paradigm to choose, the rest of the procedure being mainly technical.     

Capturing preferences for inequality aversion in decision support

We investigate the situation where there is interest in ranking distributions (of income, of wealth, of health, of service levels) across a population, in which individuals are considered preferentially indistinguishable and where there is some limited information about social preferences. We use a natural dominance relation, generalised Lorenz dominance, used in welfare comparisons in economic theory. In some settings there may be additional information about preferences (for example, if there is policy statement that one distribution is preferred to another) and any dominance relation should respect such preferences. However, characterising this sort of conditional dominance relation (specifically, dominance with respect to the set of all symmetric increasing quasiconcave functions in line with given preference information) turns out to be computationally challenging. This challenge comes about because, through the assumption of symmetry, any one preference statement (“I prefer giving $100 to Jane and $110 to John over giving $150 to Jane and $90 to John”) implies a large number of other preference statements (“I prefer giving $110 to Jane and $100 to John over giving $150 to Jane and $90 to John”; “I prefer giving $100 to Jane and $110 to John over giving $90 to Jane and $150 to John”). We present theoretical results that help deal with these challenges and present tractable linear programming formulations for testing whether dominance holds between any given pair of distributions. We also propose an interactive decision support procedure for ranking a given set of distributions and demonstrate its performance through computational testing.     

Using expert’s rules as background knowledge in the ClusDM methodology

In complex domains it is usually quite difficult to introduce context information. However, sometimes that information should be taken into account to make decisions, because it provides some relevant knowledge that cannot be expressed using an attribute-value representation. This is the case of the determination of risk of contamination of soils. In this paper, we propose to use conjunctive rules to introduce additional background knowledge to a MCDM sorting method called ClusDM. ClusDM is based on the aggregation of the data with unsupervised clustering techniques. The paper presents a new algorithm to incorporate rules to guide the clustering process in a semi-supervised way. The paper also describes how it works in the case sorting a set of possible contaminated soils, and compares the results obtained by ClusDM when rules are used or not.     

A sensitivity analysis algorithm for hierarchical decision models

In this paper, a comprehensive algorithm is developed to analyze the sensitivity of hierarchical decision models (HDM), including the analytic hierarchy process and its variants, to single and multiple changes in the local contribution matrices at any level of the decision hierarchy. The algorithm is applicable to all HDM that use an additive function to derive the overall contribution vector. It is independent of pairwise comparison scales, judgment quantification techniques and group opinion combining methods. The allowable range/region of perturbations, contribution tolerance, operating point sensitivity coefficient, total sensitivity coefficient and the most critical decision element at a certain level are identified in the HDM SA algorithm. An example is given to demonstrate the application of the algorithm and show that HDM SA can reveal information more significant and useful than simply knowing the rank order of the decision alternatives.     

A simple classifier for multiple criteria ABC analysis

To have an efficient control of a huge amount of inventory items, traditional approach is to classify the inventory into different groups. Different inventory control policies can then applied to different groups. The well-known ABC classification is simple-to-understand and easy-to-use. However, ABC analysis is based on only single measurement such as annual dollar usage. It has been recognized that other criteria are also important in inventory classification.     

A multiplicative version of Promethee II applied to multiobjective optimization problems

The method Promethee II has produced attractive results in the choice of the most satisfactory optimal solution of convex multiobjective problems. However, according to the current literature, it may not work properly with nonconvex problems. A modified version of this method, called multiplicative Promethee, is proposed in this paper. Both versions are applied to some analytical problems, previously optimized by an evolutionary algorithm. The multiplicative Promethee got much better results than the original Promethee II, being capable of solving convex and nonconvex problems, with continuous and discontinuous Pareto fronts.     

A simulation-based test of stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using achievement functions

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using achievement functions (SMAA-A) is a preference model for discrete-choice decision making that inverts the traditional goal programming process by asking what combinations of aspirations are necessary to make each alternative the preferred one, rather than what alternative is preferred given a set of aspirations. In this paper, we test the ability of the model to discern good-performing alternatives from poorly-performing ones using a simulation study. Simulation results show that a suitably detailed construction of the acceptability index is particularly important, and that the resulting model can be fruitfully applied in the selection of a shortlist of alternatives from a larger set with only very limited decision maker involvement.     

Robustness and information levels in case-based multiple criteria sorting

Case-based preference elicitation methods for multiple criteria sorting problems have the advantage of posing rather small cognitive demands on a decision maker, but they may lead to ambiguous results when preference parameters are not uniquely determined. We use a simulation approach to determine the extent of this problem and to study the impact of additional case information on the quality of results. Our experiments compare two decision analysis tools, case-based distance sorting and the simple additive weighting method, in terms of the effects of additional case information on sorting performance, depending on problem dimension – number of groups, number of criteria, etc. Our results confirm the expected benefit of additional case information on the precision of estimates of the decision maker’s preferences. Problem dimension, however, has some unexpected effects.     

Generalized hesitant fuzzy synergetic weighted distance measures and their application to multiple criteria decision-making

The purpose of this paper is to present a generalized hesitant fuzzy synergetic weighted distance (GHFSWD) measure, which is based on the generalized hesitant fuzzy weighted distance (GHFWD) measure and the generalized hesitant fuzzy ordered weighted distance (GHFOWD) measure proposed by Xu and Xia [Z. Xu, M. Xia, Distance and similarity measures for hesitant fuzzy sets, Inf. Sci. 181 (2011) 2128–2138.], and investigate its some desirable properties and special cases. The GHFSWD measure not only generalizes both the GHFWD and GHFOWD measures as well as the common hesitant fuzzy distance measures, but also reflects the importance degrees of both the given individual distances and their ordered positions. Then, based on the defined notions of positive ideal hesitant fuzzy set and negative ideal hesitant fuzzy set, we utilize the proposed GHFSWD measure to develop a method for multiple criteria decision making with hesitant fuzzy information. The method is flexible because it allows decision makers to provide preference with hesitancy and determine different decision results by choosing different decision strategies. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed method.     

Multiobjective programming methods in the reserve selection problem

Many ecological criteria have been proposed to assign conservation values to nature reserves in the reserve selection problem. Multiobjective programming is used to identify the best compromise solution among a set of alternative solutions that have been obtained from single objective linear programming methods based upon different criteria. Endemic plant species from the island of Crete in Greece are used as a model and a number of cells, as they have been implemented by ARC/INFO, are selected based on four criteria: (1) species richness, (2) species rarity, (3) cell richness, (4) cell rarity. Best compromise solution is identified by (i) a simple multiattribute rating technique, (ii) geometrical methods based on four distance metrics. The two methods are compared and the degree to which they fulfil the four criteria is examined.     

An exact method for computing the nadir values in multiple objective linear programming

In this paper we propose a new method to determine the exact nadir (minimum) criterion values over the efficient set in multiple objective linear programming (MOLP). The basic idea of the method is to determine, for each criterion, the region of the weight space associated with the efficient solutions that have a value in that criterion below the minimum already known (by default, the minimum in the payoff table). If this region is empty, the nadir value has been found. Otherwise, a new efficient solution is computed using a weight vector picked from the delimited region and a new iteration is performed. The method is able to find the nadir values in MOLP problems with any number of objective functions, although the computational effort increases significantly with the number of objectives. Computational experiments are described and discussed, comparing two slightly different versions of the method.     

Interactive Multiple Criteria Decision Making based on preference driven Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization with controllable accuracy

We present an approach to interactive Multiple Criteria Decision Making based on preference driven Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization with controllable accuracy.The approach relies on formulae for lower and upper bounds on coordinates of the outcome of an arbitrary efficient variant corresponding to preference information expressed by the Decision Maker. In contrast to earlier works on that subject, here lower and upper bounds can be calculated and their accuracy controlled entirely within evolutionary computation framework. This is made possible by exploration of not only the region of feasible variants - a standard within evolutionary optimization, but also the region of infeasible variants, the latter to our best knowledge being a novel approach within Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization.To illustrate how this concept can be applied to interactive Multiple Criteria Decision Making, two algorithms employing evolutionary computations are proposed and their usefulness demonstrated by a numerical example.     

Valuation of urban industrial land: An analytic network process approach

In this paper an application of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to asset valuation is presented. It has two purposes: solving some of the drawbacks found in classical asset valuation methods and broadening the scope of current approaches. The ANP is a method based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) that accurately models complex environments. This approach is particularly useful in problems which work with partially available data, qualitative variables and influences among the variables, which are very common situations in the valuation context. As an illustration, the new approach has been applied to a real case study of an industrial park located in Valencia (Spain) using three different models. The results confirm the validity of the methodology and show that the more information is incorporated into the model, the more accurate the solution will be, so the presented methodology stands out as a good alternative to current valuation approaches.     

Multicriteria classification models for the identification of targets and acquirers in the Asian banking sector

The purpose of the present study is the development of classification models for the identification of acquirers and targets in the Asian banking sector. We use a sample of 52 targets and 47 acquirers that were involved in acquisitions in 9 Asian banking markets during 1998–2004 and match them by country and time with an equal number of non-involved banks. The models are developed and validated through a tenfold cross-validation approach using two multicriteria decision aid techniques. For comparison purposes we also develop models through discriminant analysis. The results indicate that the multicriteria decision aid models are more efficient that the ones developed through discriminant analysis. Furthermore, in all the cases the models are more efficient in distinguishing between acquirers and non-involved banks than between targets and non-involved banks. Finally, the models with a binary outcome achieve higher accuracies than the ones which simultaneously distinguish between acquirers, targets and non-involved banks.     

A note on multi-criteria ABC inventory classification using weighted linear optimization

Ramanathan [R. Ramanathan, ABC inventory classification with multiple-criteria using weighted linear optimization, Computers & Operations Research 33 (2006) 695–700] recently proposed a weighted linear optimization model for multi-criteria ABC inventory classification. Despite its many advantages, Ramanathan’s model (R-model) could lead to a situation where an item with a high value in an unimportant criterion is inappropriately classified as a class A item. In this paper we present an extended version of the R-model for multi-criteria inventory classification. Our model provides a more reasonable and encompassing index since it uses two sets of weights that are most favourable and least favourable for each item. An illustrative example is presented to compare our model and the R-model.     

An improvement to multiple criteria ABC inventory classification

In this paper we presented an extended version of the Ng-modelg [W.L. Ng, A simple classifier for multiple criteria ABC analysis, European Journal of Operational Research 177 (2007) 344–353] for multi-criteria inventory classification. The proposed model is a nonlinear programming model which determines a common set of weights for all the items. Our model not only incorporates multiple criteria for ABC classification, but also maintains the effects of weights in the final solution, an improvement over the model proposed by Ng. An illustrative example is presented to compare our model and the Ng-model.     

Another potential shortcoming of AHP

In the last twenty years many features of Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been criticised, especially the additive hierarchical composition of conventional AHP, which leads to the possibility of occurrence of the Rank Reversal phenomenon (adding an irrelevant alternative may cause a reversal in the ranking at the top). In this paper we show another feature of AHP which may be, and in many application contexts will inneed be, an even stronger shortcoming of the method. It consists in the fact that the addition of indifferent criteria (for which all alternatives perform equally) causes a significant alteration of the aggregated priorities of alternatives, with important consequences. In hierarchies with four or more levels, rank reversal may happen. Since in almost all applications of AHP the set of criteria is not fixed ex-ante but is variable and is constructed in accordance with reasons of relevance and simplicity, almost all applications of AHP are potentially flawed.     

Multiple criteria aggregation procedure for mixed evaluations

Most of the existing multiple criteria decision-making methods handle one kind of the information imperfections at the same time. Stochastic methods and fuzzy methods constitute typical examples of these methods. However, several multiple criteria modelizations include simultaneously many kinds of the information imperfections. In this work, we propose a multiple criteria aggregation procedure which accepts mixed evaluations, i.e. evaluations which contain different natures of imperfections. It is based on an adaptation of the stochastic dominance results.