Organisational linkages and O.R. projects

An empirical study of a group of O.R. projects in presented with particular attention being paid to organisational interactions. The results are derived from detailed investigations of O.R. projects in which both the managers(s) and O.R. practitioner(s) were interviewed. This initial exploration has indicated a variety of organisational forms, and revealed the importance of non-formal processes that often take place.     

Lessons for O.R. from the World of Banking

This paper will be of interest to the reader concerned with O.R. in banking and to the more general reader concerned with the successful development of O.R. The paper describes and analyses the complex historical development of the O.R. Group in the National Westminster Bank, which, since 1966, has grown into one of the leading O.R. groups in finance. As well as providing a new and original documentation of the type of problem areas and approaches that have been examined in the relatively short history of O.R. in banking, the paper draws on the experience of O.R. at NatWest and that of other O.R. groups in other European banks in order to identify the factors which determine whether or not an O.R. group will develop successfully.     

Project portfolio designing using data envelopment analysis and De Novo optimisation

In a rapidly evolving economic world, projects become tools to support organization goals. Project portfolio is set of all projects that are implemented in the organisation at a time. Possible projects are characterized by sets of inputs and outputs, where inputs are resources for project realisation and outputs measure multiple goals of the organisation. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) is an appropriate approach to select efficient projects. The organisation has its total resources in limited quantities. Designing a portfolio of efficient projects not exceeding the limited resources does not always lead to the most efficient portfolio. De Novo optimisation is an approach for designing optimal systems by reshaping the feasible set. The paper proposes a new approach for project portfolio designing based on a systemic combination of DEA model and De Novo optimisation approach. A total available budget is a restriction on project portfolio. The proposed concept provides designing of optimal project portfolio with the minimal budget. Performance measures of the designed project portfolio are the efficiency of the portfolio and the effectiveness of outputs. Possible extensions of the concept are formulated and discussed.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

Voluntary Operational Research

Operational Research has traditionally been carried out in organizations which are able and willing to pay for it; this tends to restrict it to the larger industrial, commercial or governmental bodies. In this paper we reflect on an O.R. project done on behalf of a group of charities, to whom, as with most voluntary organizations, the skills of operational researchers are not usually available.It seems likely that voluntary organizations will have an increasing role as leisure time increases, and in any case the widening scope and complex context of their activities means that they could benefit from the kind of help that operational researchers can give. At the same time, O.R. workers who care about a particular voluntary organization may want to offer their skills to it. However, the skills of operational researchers are not as obviously relevant to voluntary organizations as is the professional expertise of lawyers and accountants. Undertaking O.R. projects as a voluntary helper rather than as a paid consultant, and in voluntary organizations rather than the more usual clients for O.R., has significant implications for the approach and methods used.We discuss these issues in the light of our recent experiences of carrying out ‘voluntary Operational Research’.     

Attitudes and Perceptions Relating to Implementation and Success in Operational Research

This paper presents a study of a group of O.R. projects. The major emphasis of the research was on a comparison of both the managers' and the O.R. practitioners' perceptions and attitudes. The results show a large amount of agreement between the two groups, and the main disagreement concerned their confidence in the solution. A principal component analysis of the data followed by an orthogonal rotation produced a set of eight principal factors. These were then used for a regression analysis having implementation and success as dependent variables. The results indicate that major differences are seen in the relationship of the dependents to the factors when analysed separately for managers and practitioners. Most of the variance in the implementation score of practitioners is ‘explained’ by attitudinal variables, but this is not true for managers. Implications of the research for this Churchman/Schainblatt concept of "mutual understanding" are suggested.     

Systemic risk assessment: a case study

Project Risk Registers have been used extensively for many years. However, they do not account for the interaction between risks, for example, the occurrence of one risk exacerbating other risks or portfolios of risks being more significant than the sum of the individual risks. This leads to the need to consider ‘risk systemicity’ as a part of risk analysis. This paper reports on a specific case for a large multinational project based organization, one that the authors had been involved with in the analysis of a number of projects that had massive cost overruns. Following these analyses the organization was persuaded of the importance of risk systemicity. The organization therefore engaged the authors to develop a ‘Risk Filter’. This filter is a tool for identifying areas of risk exposure on future projects and creating a framework for their investigation. The ‘Risk Filter’ is now used on all projects ever since its introduction; by the end of May 2003 it had been used by nine divisions, on over 60 major projects, and completed by 450 respondents. It is also used at several stages during the life of a project to aid in the risk assessment and management of each project, and contributes to a project database.     

Model and Situation Specific O.R. Methods: Risk Engineering Reliability Analysis of an L.N.G. Facility

A decision situation and model-specific O.R. method developed for reliability analysis of an Arctic liquid natural gas facility is outlined. It was developed by modifying a decision situation and model-specific O.R. method developed earlier for time (schedule or programme) risk analysis of offshore North Sea projects. The role and value of such methods is discussed in relation to general O.R. methods and specific techniques like C.P.M./PERT.     

O.R. and the Boardroom for the 90s

It is now technically feasible to equip a company boardroom for projection of computer images onto large wallscreens. This paper outlines the history of the development of such systems, describes the technology involved and covers some of the detailed issues affecting successful implementation. Finally, it puts forward the case for O.R. practitioners to become more actively involved in similar projects.     

The initiation,evaluation and selection of operational research projects

This paper discusses the problems involved in conducting successful Operational Research within a large organisation and suggests ways of overcoming them. It describes ways in which Operational Research projects arise, methods of assessing their relative merits, and methods used by the authors to obtain a suitable portfolio of projects. It is argued that an Operational Research Group should apply to its own project planning the scientific approach that it advocates for others.     

How Relevant is Operational Research to Development? The Case of Kenyan Industry

This paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists— and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.     

A Stochastic Model for Bidding

Competitive bidding situations involve considering a multiplicity of factors. Organizations must be able to weigh the relative probability of potential projects based on resource usage, project duration and competitor actions to decide which of many possible bids to submit. A bidding strategy designed to maximize expected long run return is crucial, since an organization can usually submit only one bid per project.This paper presents a family of stochastic dynamic programming models considering different bidding situations. Several projects, each with several potential bids, are available for each situation. The objective is to determine what bidding strategy will maximize expected returns. Models are developed for two principle bidding situations: sequential, where projects are bid individually; and simultaneous, where several projects are bid at one time. Next, the effects of over- or under-commitment of resources are incorporated into the models. Finally, changes in project timing and the resultant effects on bidding strategy are included.A numerical example traces the changes in bidding strategy which occur as the models are expanded. The general formulation of bidding problems is also discussed, including changing the bid success probabilities due to competitor actions, the possibility of crashing projects and alternate methods of performing projects.     

On-line Control Model for Cost-simulation Network Projects

This paper presents a newly developed hierarchical control model for several PERT type projects being realized simultaneously. The model has two objectives: to minimize the number of control points for an on-line control at the project level, and to maximize the probability that the slowest project can meet its due date on time (company level). On-line control is carried out separately for each project in order to minimize the number of control points subject to a chance constraint, which seeks to prevent deviation from the planned trajectory. If at the control point it is anticipated that the project will not be on target subject to the chance constraint, then an emergency is called. Under emergency conditions the company level is faced with the stochastic problem of budget reassigning among the projects enabling the faster projects to help the slower ones. A numerical example is presented.     

Problem structuring in project management: an application of soft systems methodology (SSM)

Recent research suggests a major role for problem structuring methods (PSMs) in the field of project management, particularly at the front-end of projects, where objectives are often unclear and where different constituencies have conflicting aims. This paper presents a case example of soft systems methodology (SSM) at the front-end of a major project within Tesco Stores Ltd. A detailed account of the intervention is given, including the results achieved and a discussion of how the methodology was used for multiple purposes within the same intervention. Within the literature, there remains a lack of detailed examples from which people can learn more about the use of PSMs in project management. By providing a detailed example of SSM in action, this paper seeks to highlight the importance of problem structuring at the front-end of projects and the potential role an approach such as SSM can play at this crucial stage.     

The Changing Role of O.R.

The authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.     

Learning from projects

The ‘learning organisation’ is frequently emphasised in the literature and in practice, and this is particularly important for project-oriented organisations. However, experience tells us that organisations tend not to learn adequately from project experiences. This paper reviews some of the work seeking to model and explain the behaviour of complex projects, which explains why lessons are difficult to learn from such projects—not the easy and obvious lessons but the lessons about complex non-intuitive project behaviours. From there it looks at why projects are frequently not reviewed, and seeks to offer practical proposals for carrying out reviews, using small models to enable lessons to be learned that provide understanding (rather than simply data), and distributing that learning around the organisation.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

Project selection,scheduling and resource allocation with time dependent returns

In this paper we formulate and analyze the joint problem of project selection and task scheduling. We study the situation where a manager has many alternative projects to pursue such as developing new product platforms or technologies, incremental product upgrades, or continuing education of human resources. Project return is assumed to be a known function of project completion time. Resources are limited and renewable. The objective is to maximize present worth of profit. A general mathematical formulation that can address several versions of the problem is presented. An implicit enumeration procedure is then developed and tested to provide good solutions based on project ordering and a prioritization rule for resource allocation. The algorithm uses an imbedded module for solving the resource-constrained project scheduling problem at each stage. The importance of integrating the impact of resource constraints into the selection of projects is demonstrated.     

Optimization analysis for design and planning of multi-project programs

Program management concerns the long term planning, coordination, and control of major technological, engineering, scientific, and/or developmental activities. In general, programs tend to be exceptionally large, consisting of several parallel or sequential projects or groups of projects. While a large number of modeling efforts have focused at the project level, this paper looks at the application of optimization techniques to the initial design and development of multi-project programs. The classic work breakdown structure (WBS) is used as a framework to provide an aggregate model to investigate the effects of funding levels, resource allocation, and program, project, and component durations. Decomposition, sensitivity analysis, and parametric programming are utilized to provide the decision maker detailed information for establishing program parameters, conditions, and bounds.     

Project cost dynamics for development policy-making

Cost and time overruns have been a common characteristic of development projects in many countries. This paper presents a theory of cost and time overruns based on project cost structure. The cost of a development project consists of base cost and progress cost. Base cost keeps a project ready for physical progress. Progress cost creates real physical progress on the project. This cost structure has an important inherent dynamic characteristic with implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of project management. An imbalance between annual budget and ongoing projects results in an increasing inefficiency and ineffectiveness unrelated to the quality of management of individual projects. The policy governing the starting rate of the new projects becomes very important in improving project performances. The paper also suggests some policy recommendations for commencing new projects.