Monte Carlo methods for mean-risk optimization and portfolio selection

Stochastic programming is a well-known instrument to model many risk management problems in finance. In this paper we consider a stochastic programming model where the objective function is the variance of a random function and the constraint function is the expected value of the random function. Instead of using popular scenario tree methods, we apply the well-known sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve it. An advantage of SAA is that it can be implemented without knowing the distribution of the random data. We investigate the asymptotic properties of statistical estimators obtained from the SAA problem including examining the rate of convergence of optimal solutions of the SAA problem as sample size increases. By using the classical penalty function technique and recent results on uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions, we show that under some mild conditions the statistical estimator of the optimal solution converges to its true counterpart at an exponential rate. We apply the proposed model and the numerical method to a portfolio management problem and present some numerical results.     

Asymptotic Analysis of Sample Average Approximation for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Joint Chance Constraints via Conditional Value at Risk and Difference of Convex Functions

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) has been recently used to approximate a chance constraint. In this paper, we study the convergence of stationary points, when sample average approximation (SAA) method is applied to a CVaR approximated joint chance constrained stochastic minimization problem. Specifically, we prove under some moderate conditions that optimal solutions and stationary points, obtained from solving sample average approximated problems, converge with probability one to their true counterparts. Moreover, by exploiting the recent results on large deviation of random functions and sensitivity results for generalized equations, we derive exponential rate of convergence of stationary points. The discussion is also extended to the case, when CVaR approximation is replaced by a difference of two convex functions (DC-approximation). Some preliminary numerical test results are reported.     

Single and multi-period optimal inventory control models with risk-averse constraints

This paper presents some convex stochastic programming models for single and multi-period inventory control problems where the market demand is random and order quantities need to be decided before demand is realized. Both models minimize the expected losses subject to risk aversion constraints expressed through Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk measures. A sample average approximation method is proposed for solving the models and convergence analysis of optimal solutions of the sample average approximation problem is presented. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the convergence of the algorithm.     

An Approximation Scheme for Uncertain Minimax Optimal Control Problems

In this work, we address an uncertain minimax optimal control problem with linear dynamics where the objective functional is the expected value of the supremum of the running cost over a time interval. By taking an independently drawn random sample, the expected value function is approximated by the corresponding sample average function. We study the epi-convergence of the approximated objective functionals as well as the convergence of their global minimizers. Then we define an Euler discretization in time of the sample average problem and prove that the value of the discrete time problem converges to the value of the sample average approximation. In addition, we show that there exists a sequence of discrete problems such that the accumulation points of their minimizers are optimal solutions of the original problem. Finally, we propose a convergent descent method to solve the discrete time problem, and show some preliminary numerical results for two simple examples.     

Uniform exponential convergence of sample average random functions under general sampling with applications in stochastic programming

Sample average approximation (SAA) is one of the most popular methods for solving stochastic optimization and equilibrium problems. Research on SAA has been mostly focused on the case when sampling is independent and identically distributed (iid) with exceptions (Dai et al. (2000) [9], Homem-de-Mello (2008) [16]). In this paper we study SAA with general sampling (including iid sampling and non-iid sampling) for solving nonsmooth stochastic optimization problems, stochastic Nash equilibrium problems and stochastic generalized equations. To this end, we first derive the uniform exponential convergence of the sample average of a class of lower semicontinuous random functions and then apply it to a nonsmooth stochastic minimization problem. Exponential convergence of estimators of both optimal solutions and M-stationary points (characterized by Mordukhovich limiting subgradients (Mordukhovich (2006) [23], Rockafellar and Wets (1998) [32])) are established under mild conditions. We also use the unform convergence result to establish the exponential rate of convergence of statistical estimators of a stochastic Nash equilibrium problem and estimators of the solutions to a stochastic generalized equation problem.     

Stochastic Nonlinear Complementarity Problems: Stochastic Programming Reformulation and Penalty-Based Approximation Method

We consider a class of stochastic nonlinear complementarity problems. We first reformulate the stochastic complementarity problem as a stochastic programming model. Based on the reformulation, we then propose a penalty-based sample average approximation method and prove its convergence. Finally, we report on some numerical test results to show the efficiency of our method.     

Stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints,modelling and sample average approximation

In this article, we discuss the sample average approximation (SAA) method applied to a class of stochastic mathematical programs with variational (equilibrium) constraints. To this end, we briefly investigate the structure of both–the lower level equilibrium solution and objective integrand. We show almost sure convergence of optimal values, optimal solutions (both local and global) and generalized Karush–Kuhn–Tucker points of the SAA program to their true counterparts. We also study uniform exponential convergence of the sample average approximations, and as a consequence derive estimates of the sample size required to solve the true problem with a given accuracy. Finally, we present some preliminary numerical test results.     

The Sample Average Approximation Method Applied to Stochastic Routing Problems: A Computational Study

The sample average approximation (SAA) method is an approach for solving stochastic optimization problems by using Monte Carlo simulation. In this technique the expected objective function of the stochastic problem is approximated by a sample average estimate derived from a random sample. The resulting sample average approximating problem is then solved by deterministic optimization techniques. The process is repeated with different samples to obtain candidate solutions along with statistical estimates of their optimality gaps.We present a detailed computational study of the application of the SAA method to solve three classes of stochastic routing problems. These stochastic problems involve an extremely large number of scenarios and first-stage integer variables. For each of the three problem classes, we use decomposition and branch-and-cut to solve the approximating problem within the SAA scheme. Our computational results indicate that the proposed method is successful in solving problems with up to 2¹⁶⁹⁴ scenarios to within an estimated 1.0% of optimality. Furthermore, a surprising observation is that the number of optimality cuts required to solve the approximating problem to optimality does not significantly increase with the size of the sample. Therefore, the observed computation times needed to find optimal solutions to the approximating problems grow only linearly with the sample size. As a result, we are able to find provably near-optimal solutions to these difficult stochastic programs using only a moderate amount of computation time.     

Agent scheduling in a multiskill call center

This is a summary of the author’s PhD thesis, supervised by Pierre L’Ecuyer and Roberto Musmanno and defended on 21 February 2008 at the Università della Calabria. The thesis is written in English and is available from the author upon request. This work deals with the comparison of simulation-based algorithms for solving the agents scheduling problem in a multiskill call center minimizing their costs under service levels constraints. A solution approach, combining simulation, with integer or linear programming, and cut generation, is proposed. Considering realistic problems, it performs better than the two-step approach proposed in the literature. It is also shown that a randomized search, extending the one defined for the single-period staffing problem in Avramidis et al. [IIE Trans (in press), 2008], yields highly suboptimal solutions. Finally, an extension of the cutting plane method to directly control the probability on the customers abandonments is designed.      

Approximating Stationary Points of Stochastic Mathematical Programs with Equilibrium Constraints via Sample Averaging

We investigate sample average approximation of a general class of one-stage stochastic mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints. By using graphical convergence of unbounded set-valued mappings, we demonstrate almost sure convergence of a sequence of stationary points of sample average approximation problems to their true counterparts as the sample size increases. In particular we show the convergence of M(Mordukhovich)-stationary point and C(Clarke)-stationary point of the sample average approximation problem to those of the true problem. The research complements the existing work in the literature by considering a general constraint to be represented by a stochastic generalized equation and exploiting graphical convergence of coderivative mappings.     

Beyond Canonical DC-Optimization: The Single Reverse Polar Problem

We propose a novel generalization of the Canonical Difference of Convex problem (CDC), and we study the convergence of outer approximation algorithms for its solution, which use an approximated oracle for checking the global optimality conditions. Although the approximated optimality conditions are similar to those of CDC, this new class of problems is shown to significantly differ from its special case. Indeed, outer approximation approaches for CDC need be substantially modified in order to cope with the more general problem, bringing to new algorithms. We develop a hierarchy of conditions that guarantee global convergence, and we build three different cutting plane algorithms relying on them.     

Convergence theory for nonconvex stochastic programming with an application to mixed logit

Monte Carlo methods have extensively been used and studied in the area of stochastic programming. Their convergence properties typically consider global minimizers or first-order critical points of the sample average approximation (SAA) problems and minimizers of the true problem, and show that the former converge to the latter for increasing sample size. However, the assumption of global minimization essentially restricts the scope of these results to convex problems. We review and extend these results in two directions: we allow for local SAA minimizers of possibly nonconvex problems and prove, under suitable conditions, almost sure convergence of local second-order solutions of the SAA problem to second-order critical points of the true problem. We also apply this new theory to the estimation of mixed logit models for discrete choice analysis. New useful convergence properties are derived in this context, both for the constrained and unconstrained cases, and associated estimates of the simulation bias and variance are proposed. Research Fellow of the Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research     

Analysis of a chance-constrained new product risk model with multiple customer classes

We consider the non-convex problem of minimizing a linear deterministic cost objective subject to a probabilistic requirement on a nonlinear multivariate stochastic expression attaining, or exceeding a given threshold. The stochastic expression represents the output of a noisy system featuring the product of mutually-independent, uniform random parameters each raised to a linear function of one of the decision vector’s constituent variables. We prove a connection to (i) the probability measure on the superposition of a finite collection of uncorrelated exponential random variables, and (ii) an entropy-like affine function. Then, we determine special cases for which the optimal solution exists in closed-form, or is accessible via sequential linear programming. These special cases inspire the design of a gradient-based heuristic procedure that guarantees a feasible solution for instances failing to meet any of the special case conditions. The application motivating our study is a consumer goods firm seeking to cost-effectively manage a certain aspect of its new product risk. We test our heuristic on a real problem and compare its overall performance to that of an asymptotically optimal Monte-Carlo-based method called sample average approximation. Numerical experimentation on synthetic problem instances sheds light on the interplay between the optimal cost and various parameters including the probabilistic requirement and the required threshold.     

Variable-Number Sample-Path Optimization

The sample-path method is one of the most important tools in simulation-based optimization. The basic idea of the method is to approximate the expected simulation output by the average of sample observations with a common random number sequence. In this paper, we describe a new variant of Powell’s unconstrained optimization by quadratic approximation (UOBYQA) method, which integrates a Bayesian variable-number sample-path (VNSP) scheme to choose appropriate number of samples at each iteration. The statistically accurate scheme determines the number of simulation runs, and guarantees the global convergence of the algorithm. The VNSP scheme saves a significant amount of simulation operations compared to general purpose ‘fixed-number’ sample-path methods. We present numerical results based on the new algorithm.     

An Online Actor–Critic Algorithm with Function Approximation for Constrained Markov Decision Processes

We develop an online actor–critic reinforcement learning algorithm with function approximation for a problem of control under inequality constraints. We consider the long-run average cost Markov decision process (MDP) framework in which both the objective and the constraint functions are suitable policy-dependent long-run averages of certain sample path functions. The Lagrange multiplier method is used to handle the inequality constraints. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of our algorithm to a locally optimal solution. We also provide the results of numerical experiments on a problem of routing in a multi-stage queueing network with constraints on long-run average queue lengths. We observe that our algorithm exhibits good performance on this setting and converges to a feasible point.     

规避风险的多阶段最优库存研究

基于市场需求是随机的,并且在进行市场销售前,就要确定每个阶段的生产数量的背景下,建立了具有规避风险的多阶段库存凸随机规划模型.该模型以最小化损失函数的期望值为目标函数,以规避风险为约束条件,以价值风险(VaR)和条件价值风险(CVaR)为风险度量;采用样本平均近似方法(SAA)求解该模型,并分析样本平均近似方法的收敛性;最后,给出数值结果.     

A linear programming approach for linear programs with probabilistic constraints

We study a class of mixed-integer programs for solving linear programs with joint probabilistic constraints from random right-hand side vectors with finite distributions. We present greedy and dual heuristic algorithms that construct and solve a sequence of linear programs. We provide optimality gaps for our heuristic solutions via the linear programming relaxation of the extended mixed-integer formulation of Luedtke et al. (2010) [13] as well as via lower bounds produced by their cutting plane method. While we demonstrate through an extensive computational study the effectiveness and scalability of our heuristics, we also prove that the theoretical worst-case solution quality for these algorithms is arbitrarily far from optimal. Our computational study compares our heuristics against both the extended mixed-integer programming formulation and the cutting plane method of Luedtke et al. (2010) [13]. Our heuristics efficiently and consistently produce solutions with small optimality gaps, while for larger instances the extended formulation becomes intractable and the optimality gaps from the cutting plane method increase to over 5%.     

Numerical simulation of the solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a Lévy process

The Euler scheme is a well-known method of approximation of solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). A lot of results are now available concerning the precision of this approximation in case of equations driven by a drift and a Brownian motion. More recently, people got interested in the approximation of solutions of SDEs driven by a general Lévy process. One of the problem when we use Lévy processes is that we cannot simulate them in general and so we cannot apply the Euler scheme. We propose here a new method of approximation based on the cutoff of the small jumps of the Lévy process involved. In order to find the speed of convergence of our approximation, we will use results about stability of the solutions of SDEs.     

Expected Residual Minimization Formulation for a Class of Stochastic Vector Variational Inequalities

This paper considers a class of vector variational inequalities. First, we present an equivalent formulation, which is a scalar variational inequality, for the deterministic vector variational inequality. Then we concentrate on the stochastic circumstance. By noting that the stochastic vector variational inequality may not have a solution feasible for all realizations of the random variable in general, for tractability, we employ the expected residual minimization approach, which aims at minimizing the expected residual of the so-called regularized gap function. We investigate the properties of the expected residual minimization problem, and furthermore, we propose a sample average approximation method for solving the expected residual minimization problem. Comprehensive convergence analysis for the approximation approach is established as well.     

Weak convergence to Rosenblatt sheet

We study the problem of the approximation in law of the Rosenblatt sheet. We prove the convergence in law of two families of process to the Rosenblatt sheet: the first one is constructed from a Poisson process in the plane and the second one is based on random walks.