PC expansion for material parameters using artificial data and statistical methods

This paper investigates the uncertainty of a hyper-elastic model by random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos (PC) is used to expand the coefficients into deterministic and stochastic parts. Then, from experimental data in combination with artificial data for elastomers the distribution of the force-displacement curves are known. In the numerical example the PC-based stochastic and the deterministic parameter identification are used for generation of the distribution of Ogden's material parameters. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

SFEM for rubber-like materials at large deformations

This paper investigates the uncertainty of hyper-elastic model, by random material parameters as stochastic variables. For its stochastic discretization a polynomial chaos (PC) is used to expand the coefficients into deterministic and stochastic parts. Then, from experimental data in combination with artificial data for elastomers the distribution of the force-displacement curves are obtained. In the numerical example the PC-based Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and the deterministic parameter identification are used for generation of the distribution of Ogden's material parameters. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Path planning for robots under stochastic uncertainty *

In order to reduce large online measurement and correction expenses, the a priori informations on the random variations of the model parameters of a robot and its working environment are taken into account already at the planning stage. Thus, instead of solving a deterministic path planning problem with a fixed nominal parameter vector, here, the optimal velocity profile along a given trajectory in work space is determined by using a stochastic optimization approach. Especially, the standard polygon of constrained motion-depending on the nominal parameter vector-is replaced by a more general set of admissible motion determined by chance constraints or more general risk constraints. Robust values (with respect to stochastic parameter variations) of the maximum, minimum velocity, acceleration, deceleration, resp., can be obtained then by solving a univariate stochastic optimization problem Considering the fields of extremal trajectories, the minimum-time path planning problem under stochastic uncertainty can be solved now by standard optimal deterministic path planning methods     

Stochastic Material and Topology Design

In order to find a robust optimal topology or material design with respect to stochastic variations of the model parameters of a mechanical structure, the basic optimization problem under stochastic uncertainty must be replaced by an appropriate deterministic substitute problem. Starting from the equilibrium equation and the yield/strength conditions, the problem can be formulated as a stochastic (linear) program “with recourse”. Hence, by discretization the design space by finite elements, linearizing the yield conditions, in case of discrete probability distributions the resulting deterministic substitute problems are linear programs with a dual decomposition data structure.     

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.     

Geometric partitioning and robust ad-hoc network design

We consider bounds for the price of a European-style call option under regime switching. Stochastic semidefinite programming models are developed that incorporate a lattice generated by a finite-state Markov chain regime-switching model as a representation of scenarios (uncertainty) to compute bounds. The optimal first-stage bound value is equivalent to a Value at Risk quantity, and the optimal solution can be obtained via simple sorting. The upper (lower) bounds from the stochastic model are bounded below (above) by the corresponding deterministic bounds and are always less conservative than their robust optimization (min-max) counterparts. In addition, penalty parameters in the model allow controllability in the degree to which the regime switching dynamics are incorporated into the bounds. We demonstrate the value of the stochastic solution (bound) and computational experiments using the S&P 500 index are performed that illustrate the advantages of the stochastic programming approach over the deterministic strategy.     

Optimal PID controller of robots under stochastic uncertainty

In practice often it is not possible to specify exact model parameters. Hence, precomputed controller based on some parameter estimates can produce bad results. In this presentation the aim is to combine classical PID control theory and stochastic optimisation methods in order to obtain robust optimal feedback control. The method works with cost functions being minimized and takes into account stochastic parameter varations. After Taylor expansion to calculate expected cost functions and a few transformations an approximate deterministic substitute PID control problem follows. Here, retaining only linear terms, approximation of expectations and variances of the expected cost functions can be calculated explicitly. By means of splines, numerical approximations of the objective function and the differential equations are obtained then. Using stochastic optimization methods, random parameter variations are incorporated into the optimal control process. Hence, robust optimal feedback controls are obtained. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Managing inventory and service levels in a safety stock‐based inventory routing system with stochastic retailer demands

The inherent uncertainty in supply chain systems compels managers to be more perceptive to the stochastic nature of the systems' major parameters, such as suppliers' reliability, retailers' demands, and facility production capacities. To deal with the uncertainty inherent to the parameters of the stochastic supply chain optimization problems and to determine optimal or close to optimal policies, many approximate deterministic equivalent models are proposed. In this paper, we consider the stochastic periodic inventory routing problem modeled as chance‐constrained optimization problem. We then propose a safety stock‐based deterministic optimization model to determine near‐optimal solutions to this chance‐constrained optimization problem. We investigate the issue of adequately setting safety stocks at the supplier's warehouse and at the retailers so that the promised service levels to the retailers are guaranteed, while distribution costs as well as inventory throughout the system are optimized. The proposed deterministic models strive to optimize the safety stock levels in line with the planned service levels at the retailers. Different safety stock models are investigated and analyzed, and the results are illustrated on two comprehensively worked out cases. We conclude this analysis with some insights on how safety stocks are to be determined, allocated, and coordinated in stochastic periodic inventory routing problem. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal PID control in case of random initial conditions

The aim of this presentation is to construct a robust optimal PID feedback controller, taking into account stochastic uncertainties in the initial conditions. Usually, a precomputed feedback control is based on exactly known model parameters. However, in practice, often exact information about model parameters and initial values is not given. Hence, having an inital point, which differs from the nominal values, a standard precomputed controller may produce bad results. Supposing now that the probability distribution of the random parameter variations is known, in the following stochastic optimisation methods will be applied in order to obtain robust optimal feedback controls. Taking into account stochastic parameter variations at the initial point, the method works with expected total costs arising from the primary control expenses and the tracking error. Furthermore, the free regulator parameters are selected then such that the expected total costs are minimized. After Taylor expansion to calculate expected cost functions and a few transformations an approximate deterministic substitute control problem follows. Here, retaining only linear terms, approximation of expectations and variances of the expected cost functions can be calculated explicitly. By means of splines, numerical approximations of the objective function and the differential equations are obtained then. Using stochastic optimization methods, random parameter variations are incorporated into the optimal control process. Hence, robust optimal feedback controls are obtained. (© 2009 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A Stochastic Capital Rationing Model

This paper addresses the issue of optimal project selection for capital expenditures assuming uncertain budgetary allocations. A critical review of the historical development of capital budgeting models indicates two major deficiencies: (i) deterministic models ignore the uncertain nature of capital budgeting problems; and (ii) those models which do incorporate the concept of uncertainty have serious computational problems when applied to larger problems. A stochastic capital rationing model (SCRM) is proposed which makes use of recent developments in stochastic programmes with recourse. This model remains computationally tractable despite the explicit incorporation of uncertainty and the application of theoretically sound penalties for constraint violations. Two problems are introduced which illustrate the model's superiority over comparable deterministic formulations. By varying both the probability distributions of the stochastic constraints and the borrowing rates, it was possible to identify the impact these factors have on project selections.     

The Impact of Risk Attitude on the Optimal Compensation Plan in a Multi-product Situation

This paper examines the role of uncertainty and risk in determining the optimal commission rates a company should choose for each product of a salesman's product line. We assume that sales for each product are a stochastic function of the time (sales effort) allocated to that product. When sales are assumed to be deterministic, we achieve optimality when each product's commission is the same fraction of its gross margin. However, we determine here that when sales are stochastic this may no longer be true. Optimality conditions require explicit consideration of the utility function of the salesman and the moments of the sales response function.     

An Approach for Strategic Supply Chain Planning under Uncertainty based on Stochastic 0-1 Programming

We present a two-stage stochastic 0-1 modeling and a related algorithmic approach for Supply Chain Management under uncertainty, whose goal consists of determining the production topology, plant sizing, product selection, product allocation among plants and vendor selection for raw materials. The objective is the maximization of the expected benefit given by the product net profit over the time horizon minus the investment depreciation and operations costs. The main uncertain parameters are the product net price and demand, the raw material supply cost and the production cost. The first stage is included by the strategic decisions. The second stage is included by the tactical decisions. A tight 0-1 model for the deterministic version is presented. A splitting variable mathematical representation via scenario is presented for the stochastic version of the model. A two-stage version of a Branch and Fix Coordination (BFC) algorithmic approach is proposed for stochastic 0-1 program solving, and some computational experience is reported for cases with dozens of thousands of constraints and continuous variables and hundreds of 0-1 variables.     

Robust optimal control of stochastic hyperelastic materials

Soft robots are highly nonlinear systems made of deformable materials such as elastomers, fluids and other soft matter, that often exhibit intrinsic uncertainty in their elastic responses under large strains due to microstructural inhomogeneity. These sources of uncertainty might cause a change in the dynamics of the system leading to a significant degree of complexity in its controllability. This issue poses theoretical and numerical challenges in the emerging field of optimal control of stochastic hyperelasticity. This paper states and solves the robust averaged control in stochastic hyperelasticity where the underlying state system corresponds to the minimization of a stochastic polyconvex strain energy function. Two bio-inspired optimal control problems under material uncertainty are addressed. The expected value of the L²-norm to a given target configuration is minimized to reduce the sensitivity of the spatial configuration to variations in the material parameters. The existence of optimal solutions for the robust averaged control problem is proved. Then the problem is solved numerically by using a gradient-based method. Two numerical experiments illustrate both the performance of the proposed method to ensure the robustness of the system and the significant differences that may occur when uncertainty is incorporated in this type of control problems.     

An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments

In project investment decisions, it is often assumed that estimated values of project parameters are certain and they would not deviate by the time. However, project parameters normally change during a life cycle of the project. Therefore, an existence of a deviation or gap between forecasted values and actual values is inevitable. Because of the uncertainty of the future, forecasting the true and exact values of project parameters is almost impossible. In this study, an integrated decision support approach based on simulation and fuzzy set theory is proposed for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. This approach determines the risk levels of the projects and helps investors to make investment decisions. In the scope of the study, a flowchart is presented to guide to decision maker in different situations of information uncertainty that belongs to project parameter values. Via this flowchart, the values of project parameters can be chosen depending on how they are determined (deterministic, stochastic or fuzzy) by project analyst. Besides, calculating and analyzing the project risk in all possible situations would be easier. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the application of this approach.     

Optimal budgetary and monetary policies under uncertainty: A stochastic control approach

In this paper, we determine optimal budgetary and monetary policies for Austria using a small macroeconometric model. We use a Keynesian model of the Austrian economy, called FINPOL1, estimated by ordinary least squares, which relates the main objective variables of Austrian economic policies, such as the growth rate of real gross domestic product, the rate of unemployment, the rate of inflation, the balance of payments, and the ratio of the federal budget deficit to GDP, to fiscal and monetary policy instruments, namely expenditures and revenues of the federal budget and money supply. Optimal fiscal and monetary policies are calculated for the model under a quadratic objective function using the algorithm OPTCON for the optimum control of nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems. Several control experiments are performed in order to assess the influence of different kinds of uncertainty on optimal budgetary and monetary policies. Apart from deterministic optimization runs, different assumptions about parameter uncertainties are introduced; the results of these different stochastic optimum control experiments are compared and interpreted.     

Robustness of mechanical systems against uncertainties

In this paper, one can propose a method which takes into account the propagation of uncertainties in the finite element models in a multi-objective optimization procedure. This method is based on the coupling of stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and a genetic algorithm provided with a new robustness criterion. The SRSM is based on the use of stochastic finite element method (SFEM) via the use of the polynomial chaos expansion (PC). Thus, one can avoid the use of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) whose costs become prohibitive in the optimization problems, especially when the finite element models are large and have a considerable number of design parameters.The objective of this study is on one hand to quantify efficiently the effects of these uncertainties on the responses variability or the cost functions which one wishes to optimize and on the other hand, to calculate solutions which are both optimal and robust with respect to the uncertainties of design parameters.In order to study the propagation of input uncertainties on the mechanical structure responses and the robust multi-objective optimization with respect to these uncertainty, two numerical examples were simulated. The results which relate to the quantification of the uncertainty effects on the responses variability were compared with those obtained by the reference method (REF) using MCS and with those of the deterministic response surfaces methodology (RSM).In the same way, the robust multi-objective optimization results resulting from the SRSM method were compared with those obtained by the direct optimization considered as reference (REF) and with RSM methodology.The SRSM method application to the response variability study and the robust multi-objective optimization gave convincing results.     

需求依赖销售努力库存系统的随机比较

研究需求依赖销售努力库存系统中需求不确定性对系统最优订货量、利润和销售努力的影响.对一般需求模型给出期望利润关于订货量和努力水平为联合凹的充分条件,证明期望利润函数的超模性质.对加乘需求模型证明系统最优利润和最优努力水平都可由一类与需求分布有关的广义TTT变换来表示.通过引入定义在不同支撑分布集合上一阶、二阶和三阶随机占优,得到广义TTT变换之差与二阶和三阶随机占优之间的关系式,建立了比较库存系统最优利润或努力水平的理论基础.在一阶和二阶随机占优意义下对加乘需求模型得到比较系统最优利润和努力水平的充分条件或充分必要条件.进一步,证明存在一类需求分布当系统关键比(或市场价格)足够大时系统最优利润和努力水平随需求可变性的增加而增加.最后给出几个数值例子验证了研究结果.     

Dynamics of tumor virotherapy: A deterministic and stochastic model approach

Cancer virotherapy is studied in mathematical modeling to improve tumor elimination. Since various oncolytic viruses are used for cancer therapy and virus selection is an important research problem, we, therefore, constructed deterministic and stochastic models of cancer-virus dynamics. We investigated virus characteristic parameter sensitivities using a reproduction ratio. Locally and globally asymptotically stable equilibrium points that are respectively related to therapy failure/partial success and therapy failure were determined. A stochastic system was derived from the deterministic model. Tumor extinction probabilities depending on changing parameter values were investigated. Results suggest that viruses with high infection rates and optimal cytotoxicity are effective for cancer treatment.     

Evaluation of three production planning procedures for the use of recipe flexibility

Process industries often obtain their raw materials from mining or agricultural industries. These raw materials usually have variations in quality, which often lead to variations in the recipes used for manufacturing a product. Another reason for varying the recipe is to minimize production costs by using the cheapest materials that still lead to a satisfactory quality in the product. A third reason for using recipe flexibility is that it may occur that at the time of production not all materials for the standard recipe are available. In earlier research we showed under what conditions the use of this type of recipe flexibility should be preferred to the use of high materials stock to avoid materials shortages. We also showed that the use of recipe flexibility to account for material shortages can be justified if the material replenishment leadtime is long, the demand uncertainty is high and the required service level is high. In this paper we assume that these conditions are satisfied and we investigate three different production planning procedures that make use of recipe flexibility to cope with the uncertainty in demand and supply. We assume that the customer order leadtime is much smaller than the material replenishment leadtime, and therefore demand uncertainty is high. The optimal procedure optimizes material use over a planning horizon equal to the material replenishment leadtime, taking into account the customers orders and knowledge of the distribution function of future demand. The deterministic procedure also optimizes the material use over the material replenishment leadtime, but it assumes a deterministic demand level for unknown orders. The simplest, myopic procedure optimizes material use over only the accepted customer orders. These three procedures are investigated via an experimental design of computer simulations of an elementary small scale model of the production planning situation. The results show that the optimal procedure outperforms the other two procedures. Furthermore, for a realistic cost structure in feed industry under certain circumstances the use of the optimal procedure may lead to a 4% increase in profit. However, this improvement must be weighted against the cost incurred by the operational use of this complex procedure. Based on these considerations and the numerical results in this paper, we may expect that for some situations in practice the use of the simplest myopic procedure, optimizing material use only over the available customer orders, will be justified from an overall cost point of view.     

Advertising for a new product introduction: A stochastic approach

We formulate a stochastic extension of the Nerlove and Arrow’s advertising model in order to analyze the problem of a new product introduction. The main idea is to introduce some uncertainty aspects in connection both with the advertising action and the goodwill decay, in order to represent the random consequences of the advertising messages and of the word-of-mouth publicity, respectively. The model is stated in terms of the stochastic optimal control theory and a general study is attempted using the stochastic Maximum Principle. Closed form solutions are obtained under linear quadratic assumptions for the cost and the reward functions. Such optimal policies suggest that the decision-maker considers both the above mentioned phenomena as opportunities to increase her/his final reward. After stating some general features of the optimal solutions, we analyze in detail three extreme cases, namely the deterministic model and the stochastic models with either the word-of-mouth effect only, or the lure/repulsion effect only. The optimal policies provide us with some insight on the general effects of the advertising action. Supported by MIUR and University of Padua.