航空机务维修的优化管理

在航空机务维修工作中,科学的管理、人力资源的合理配置对及时完成维修任务,保障训练作战计划至关重要.从装备完好率和完成任务的及时性出发,分别建立了数学优化配置模型,并给出了这两种情况下效益(成本)矩阵的构造方法,进而将优化模型转化为最优线性指派问题来处理,从而为航空机务维修工作中人力资源的优化配置提供了一种科学、合理的决策方法.     

Top Management Systems for Forecasting and Monitoring Pay Costs and Staff Numbers

The size of the Department of Trade and Industry has mainly been controlled by a ceiling on the number of staff. Recently, the Government also introduced limits on running cost budgets, the largest component of which is pay cost. In 1986 these were delegated to 12 Deputy Secretaries. The budgets have to be set very tightly in order to remain within the Departmental limit on running costs; so it is essential that top management are able to forecast pay costs. Two models are described. One provides short term forecasts of staff numbers, the other forecasts their cost. The model forecasting staff numbers can be used to ensure that the ceiling on staff numbers is not exceeded. Its main use is as an input to the second model which forecasts pay costs. The models are now in use by top management; firstly, to allocate budgets throughout the Department, and secondly, to monitor the spend through the year.     

A Dynamic Programming Approach to Determine Optimal Manpower Recruitment Policies

The manpower planning models available in the literature have dealt with how changes take place in a manpower planning system, under various operating and policy constraints. However, none of these models has identified the manpower system costs. In this paper we have identified various manpower system costs. Further, we have developed a manpower planning model with the objective of minimizing the manpower system costs. The model has been found to be analogous to the Wagner-Whitin model in production/inventory management. A numerical example has been given to illustrate the model.     

Lagrangian heuristics for scheduling new product development projects in the pharmaceutical industry

To stay ahead of their competition, pharmaceutical firms must make effective use of their new product development (NPD) capabilities by efficiently allocating its analytical, clinical testing and manufacturing resources across various drug development projects. The resulting project scheduling problems involve coordinating hundreds of testing and manufacturing activities over a period of several quarters. Most conventional integer programming approaches are computationally impractical for problems of this size, while priority rule-driven heuristics seldom provide consistent solution quality. We propose a Lagrangian decomposition (LD) heuristic that exploits the special structure of these problems. Some resources (typically manpower) are shared across all on-going projects while others (typically equipment) are specific to individual project categories. Our objective function is a weighted discounted cost expressed in terms of activity completion times. The LD heuristics were subjected to a comprehensive experimental study based on typical operational instances. While the conventional “Reward–Risk” priority rule heuristic generates duality gaps between 47–58%, the best LD heuristic achieves duality gaps between 10–20%. The LD heuristics also yield makespan reductions of over 30% over the Reward–Risk priority rule.     

Generalized lot sentencing rule for estimating the value of production lot for sale

In the traditional lot sentencing rule, a buyer arrives to one of two decisions regarding lot disposition; either accept or reject a lot. However, it is more appropriate to consider choices between those two extreme decisions. A clear case where the traditional lot sentencing rule is not flexible is when a buyer purchases a lot from an English auction. In this paper, we propose a model that helps a buyer in estimating the value of a production lot. This model can be used by a bidder before the bidding process starts to estimate the value of an auctioned lot. The model provides an action plan that includes the estimated acquisition cost as a function of the number of defective items found in a random sample. Unlike the traditional lot sentencing rule, the proposed rule is more flexible and provides buyers with wider range of possible actions.     

Profile‐based push models in manpower planning

A methodology is presented to deal with heterogeneity due to observable variables in modeling personnel systems. For a manpower system, a model based on personnel profiles is introduced. The proposed algorithm concerns an analysis of the evolution of personnel profiles under time‐discrete Markov assumptions. In this way, based on an historical personnel database, the estimation of transition probabilities of profiles as well as the computation of forecasts on the evolution of the manpower system can be found. Based on the presented procedure, a policy supporting software package has been developed for the Belgian Federal Government (research project financed by Federaal Wetenschapsbeleid). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined pricing and supply chain operations under price-dependent stochastic demand

In this study, we determined product prices and designed an integrated supply chain operations plan that maximized a manufacturer’s expected profit. The computational results of this study revealed that as the variance of the demand distribution increases, a manufacturer will increase its inventory to levels that are greater than the anticipated demand to prevent the potential loss of sales and will simultaneously raise product prices to obtain a greater profit. In the cost minimization approach, the manufacturer may earn the highest possible profits, as determined by the profit optimization approach, only if this firm precisely forecasts the mean market demand for its products. Greater inaccuracies in this forecast will produce lower levels of expected profit.     

Consistency requirements and pattern methods in cost sharing problems with technological cooperation

Using the discrete cost sharing model with technological cooperation, we investigate the implications of the requirement that demand manipulations must not affect the agents’ shares. In a context where the enforcing authority cannot prevent agents (who seek to reduce their cost shares) from splitting or merging their demands, the cost sharing methods used must make such artifices unprofitable. The paper introduces a family of rules that are immune to these demand manipulations, the pattern methods. Our main result is the characterization of these methods using the above requirement. For each one of these methods, the associated pattern indicates how to combine the technologies in order to meet the agents’ demands. Within this family, two rules stand out: the public Aumann–Shapley rule, which never rewards technological cooperation; and the private Aumann–Shapley rule, which always rewards technology providers. Fairness requirements imposing natural bounds (for the technological rent) allow to further differentiate these two rules.     

Information acquisition in new product introduction

In the presence of huge losses from unsuccessful new product introductions, companies often seek forecast information from various sources. As the information can be costly, companies need to determine how much effort to put into acquiring the information. Such a decision is strategically important because an insufficient investment may cause lack of knowledge of product profitability, which in turn may lead to introducing a loss-making product or scrapping a potentially profitable one. In this paper, we use decision analytical models to study information acquisition for new product introduction. Specifically, we consider a decision maker (DM) who, prior to introducing a new product, can purchase forecasts and use the information to update his knowledge of the market demand. We analyze and compare two approaches: The first approach is to determine the total amount of forecasts to purchase all at once. The second one is to purchase forecasts sequentially and, based on the purchased forecasts, determine whether those forecasts are informative enough for making an introduction decision or an additional forecast is needed. We present dynamic programming formulations for both approaches and derive the optimal policies. Via a numerical study, we find the second approach, i.e., purchasing forecasts sequentially, can generate a significant profit advantage over the first one when (1) the cost of acquiring forecasts is neither too high nor too low, (2) the precision of the forecasts is of a moderate level, and (3) the profit margin of the new product is small.     

Cost estimation algorithm and decision-making model for curriculum modification in educational organization

The decision about curriculum modification usually takes place at the knowledge level, mainly with consideration of individual academic staff competences and qualifications. However, traditional approaches to cost estimation of curriculum modification are focused on material resources only. In this paper we present a cost estimation method and decision model for curriculum modification in educational organizations. The proposed method works at the knowledge level and employs competence sets as knowledge representation models in educational organizations. Authors used the theory of hierarchical, multilevel systems in order to define the model of the decision-making process of curriculum modification and its dimension. Basing on this and also using a fuzzy competence model the cost estimation algorithm in the form of a group competences expansion algorithm is proposed. The algorithm focuses on the cost of staff competence expansion caused by the knowledge development process.     

Modelling heterogeneity in a manpower system: a review

Manpower planning is an essential methodology for business and industry; it allows managers to make more efficient use of human resources. However, human behaviour is highly variable and it is therefore essential for manpower planning that population heterogeneity is successfully modelled. In this paper we review methods of incorporating population heterogeneity into manpower modelling. The analysis of differentials in a manpower system is emphasized since they are a source of aggregation error in stochastic models. Two strategies have been stressed, the use of observable sources of heterogeneity as they affect wastage, and the latent sources which cannot be identified precisely but are known to affect the key parameters of most models. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A vertex oriented approach to the equal remaining obligations rule for minimum cost spanning tree situations

In this paper, we consider spanning tree situations, where players want to be connected to a source as cheap as possible. These situations involve the construction of a spanning tree with the minimum cost as well as the allocation of the cost of this minimum cost spanning tree among its users in a fair way. Feltkamp, Muto and Tijs 1994 introduced the equal remaining obligations rule to solve the cost allocation problem in these situations. Recently, it has been shown that the equal remaining obligations rule satisfies many appealing properties and can be obtained with different approaches. In this paper, we provide a new approach to obtain the equal remaining obligations rule. Specifically, we show that the equal remaining obligations rule can be obtained as the average of the cost allocations provided by a vertex oriented construct-and-charge procedure for each order of players.     

Inventory control for point-of-use locations in hospitals

Most inventory management systems at hospital departments are characterised by lost sales, periodic reviews with short lead times, and limited storage capacity. We develop two types of exact models that deal with all these characteristics. In a capacity model, the service level is maximised subject to a capacity restriction, and in a service model the required capacity is minimised subject to a service level restriction. We also formulate approximation models applicable for any lost-sales inventory system (cost objective, no lead time restrictions etc). For the capacity model, we develop a simple inventory rule to set the reorder levels and order quantities. Numerical results for this inventory rule show an average deviation of 1% from the optimal service levels. We also embed the single-item models in a multi-item system. Furthermore, we compare the performance of fixed order size replenishment policies and (R,?s,?S) policies.     

Potential inventory cost reductions using advanced time series forecasting techniques

This paper compares demand forecasts computed using the time series forecasting techniques of vector autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) with forecasts computed using exponential smoothing and seasonal decomposition. These forecasts for three demand data series were used to determine three inventory management policies for each time series. The inventory costs associated with each of these policies were used as a further basis for comparison of the forecasting techniques. The results show that the BVAR technique, which uses mixed estimation, is particularly useful in reducing inventory costs in cases where the limited historical data offer little useful information for forecasting. The BVAR technique was effective in improving forecast accuracy and reducing inventory costs in two of the three cases tested. In the third case, unrestricted VAR and exponential smoothing produced the lowest experimental forecast errors and computed inventory costs. Furthermore, this research illustrates that improvements in demand forecasting can provide better cost reductions than relying on stochastic inventory models to provide cost reductions.     

Equilibrium models for inter‐dependent Markov systems

A Markovian model of graded systems, like the educational system, ensures internal consistency between forecasts. Sometimes merely ensuring this consistency is not enough, for the stochastic system may be operating below desired planning levels. This is highlighted. The educational system is considered and necessary conditions for equilibrium between demand and supply of teachers at first level is given. Disequilibrium conditions are shown to exist when the resulting models are applied to an autonomous education zone.     

A model for promotion rate control in hierarchical manpower systems

In optimization models of hierarchical manpower systems, thenumbers promoted from each of the grades in a time period arenormally considered as decision variables. As a result, promotionrates, defined in terms of the proportions of staff promoted,can vary substantially from period to period in these models.Policies of this type may be unacceptable in practice becauseof their adverse impact on staff morale. In this paper, a mixedinteger programming (MIP) manpower planning model is developedfor determining minimum-cost manpower policies in which promotionrates remain stable while satisfying specified manpower requirementsover the planning period. In this MIP model, promotion ratesare considered as decision variables by using binary variables,and the model is solved by using an iterative procedure. Theuse of the approach is illustrated with representative datafor a military system.     

Corporate manpower planning

In this paper the necessity of corporate manpower planning is discussed and the growing interest in it within many organizations. In particular medium and long term forecasting in rather large and structured organizations are explained and the need for tools to get a survey of the evolution of their personnel strength. These tools should help management and staff-members of a planning or personnel department to design alternative policies concerning promotions, recruitments, etc.We will present a planning method which satisfies these requirements. The interactive manpower planning system FORMASY presents forecasts concerning the evolution of the personnel strength and makes it possible to assess the impacts of alternative policies. This planning system is based on a Markov model and is being used on a general purpose computer in several Dutch organizations, both industrial and governmental.FORMASY has proved its value for practical manpower planning which will be explained by means of a case-study with the Royal Dutch Airforce.     

Stochastic models for air cargo terminal manpower supply planning in long‐term operations

In this research, based on two deterministic‐demand planning models, we established two long‐term stochastic‐demand planning models by incorporating the stochastic disturbances of manpower demands that occur in actual operations. The models are formulated as mixed integer linear programs that are solved using a mathematical programming solver. To compare the performance of the two stochastic‐demand and two deterministic‐demand planning models under the stochastic demands that occur in actual operations, we further develop a simulation‐based evaluation method. Finally, we perform numerical tests using real operating data from a Taiwan air cargo terminal. The preliminary results show that the stochastic models could be useful for planning air cargo terminal manpower supply. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The minimum cost shortest-path tree game

A minimum cost shortest-path tree is a tree that connects the source with every node of the network by a shortest path such that the sum of the cost (as a proxy for length) of all arcs is minimum. In this paper, we adapt the algorithm of Hansen and Zheng (Discrete Appl. Math. 65:275?C284, 1996) to the case of acyclic directed graphs to find a minimum cost shortest-path tree in order to be applied to the cost allocation problem associated with a cooperative minimum cost shortest-path tree game. In addition, we analyze a non-cooperative game based on the connection problem that arises in the above situation. We prove that the cost allocation given by an ??à la?? Bird rule provides a core solution in the former game and that the strategies that induce those payoffs in the latter game are Nash equilibrium.     

An integrated staff-sizing approach considering feasibility of scheduling decision

This paper presents an integrated staff-sizing system for analyzing and determining workforce management policies with consideration of staff flexibility in service organizations, which addresses and captures the integrated requirements between long-term manpower planning and short-term staff scheduling in the service sector. Multiple Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) is applied to optimize several diversified goals. Solution methods to the MOLP models for the staff planning and staff scheduling are developed respectively, then a solution approach is proposed to iteratively revise the unacceptable staff-sizing plan or scheduling plan. Finally, an example of nurse sizing is analyzed and computational studies are carried out to investigate managerial insights.