Nonparametric estimation of the cross ratio function

The cross ratio function (CRF) is a commonly used tool to describe local dependence between two correlated variables. Being a ratio of conditional hazards, the CRF can be rewritten in terms of (first and second derivatives of) the survival copula of these variables. Bernstein estimators for (the derivatives of) this survival copula are used to define a nonparametric estimator of the cross ratio, and asymptotic normality thereof is established. We consider simulations to study the finite sample performance of our estimator for copulas with different types of local dependency. A real dataset is used to investigate the dependence between food expenditure and net income. The estimated CRF reveals that families with a low net income relative to the mean net income will spend less money to buy food compared to families with larger net incomes. This dependence, however, disappears when the net income is large compared to the mean income.

     

On the joint characterization of the distributions of the true income and the proportion of the reported income to the true income through a model of under-reported incomes

In this note, we assume that the reported income is related to the true income by the so-called ‘error-in-variables’ model, a model which assumes that the observed incomes are under-reported. In the context of this model, the distribution of the reported income suitably truncated below coincides with that of the true income, and suitable truncated above with that of the random proportion of the reported income to the true income if, and only if, the distribution of the true income is Pareto and that of the proportion is of the power function form.     

财政支出、电力消费与农民收入的时空特征分析

本文将财政农业人均支出和农村人均用电量作为解释变量,农民人均纯收入作为被解释变量,利用2000-2005年中国31个省、市和自治区的有关时空数据,建立相应的空间自回归模型.模型数据统计分析表明:a)农民人均纯收入不仅存在空间自相关的特点,而且具有异质性;b)农民人均收入对财政农业人均支出、农村人均用电量存在明显的空间依赖性;c)用财政农业支出和农村用电量来反映农民收入水平十分有效,且都具有显著的正面影响.据此,文章提出了一些有针对性的提高农民收入的政策建议.     

FISHERY BENEFITS OF FULLY PROTECTED MARINE RESERVES: WHY HABITAT AND BEHAVIOR ARE IMPORTANT

ABSTRACT. Fully protected marine reserves, areas that are closed to all fishing, have attracted great interest for their potential to benefit fisheries. A wide range of models suggest reserves will be most effective for species that are relatively sedentary as adults but produce offspring that disperse widely. Adult spawning stocks will be secure from capture in reserves, while their offspring disperse freely into fishing grounds. Such species include animals like reef fish, mollusks and echino‐derms, and models typically indicate that when they are over‐fished, catches will be higher with reserves than without. By contrast, the same models suggest that reserves will be ineffective for animals that are mobile as adults species like cod, tuna or sharks. They remain vulnerable to fishing whenever they move outside reserves. Unfortunately, most models lack sufficient realism to effectively gauge reserve effects on migratory species. They usually assume that individuals are homogeneously distributed in a uniform sea and move randomly. They also assume that fishers hunt at random. Neither is true. For centuries, fishers have targeted places and times when their quarry are most vulnerable to capture. Protecting these sites could have disproportionately large effects on stocks. Furthermore, models rarely take into account possible benefits from improvements in habitat within reserves. Such changes, like increased biomass and complexity of bottom‐living organisms, could alter fish movement patterns and reduce natural mortality rates in ways that enhance reserve benefits. We present a simple model of reserve effects on a migratory fish species. The model incorporates spatial variation in vulnerability to capture and shows that strategically placed reserves can offer benefits in the form of increased spawning stock and catch, especially when fishing intensities are high. We need to develop a new generation of models that incorporate habitat and behaviour to better explore the utility of reserves for mobile species. Migratory behavior does not preclude reserves from benefiting a species, but it demands that we apply different principles in designing them. We must identify critical sites to species and develop reserve networks that focus protection on those places.     

1953-1998我国政府间转移支付的统计分析

本文分析了 1953-1998年间我国政府间转移支付制度,分析是在不同经济体制、财政体制下,通过研究各地区财政资金净流入流出量的状况对各地区预算内、外财政收入弹性等因素的影响来进行的,结论是我国各地区的经济发展差异很大,“抽肥补瘦”式的政府间转移支付只能在中央集权的财政体制中得到实施,地方财政分权只能局限于地方公共产品供应范围内。过度分权只能助长地方保护主义,破坏统一市场的形成。     

基于灰关联系统的我国农村户用沼气影响因素调查分析

沼气是农村新能源的主体,可以减少环境污染、解决农村能源短缺问题.从人口、经济、资源、能源消费结构和市场五个方面,用灰关联方法分析了农村户用沼气发展的推动力,并通过实地调研验证了研究结论.结果表明,影响农村户用沼气的发展的主要因素是农村居民人均年纯收入、电力、煤和大牲口存栏数;收入水平越高,农户越能接受沼气池建设,但也会导致沼气池使用效率下降.建议经济发达地区逐渐取消农村户用沼气,建设大型沼气工程,同时加大贫困地区资金扶持力度,削减经济发达地区户用沼气建设补贴.     

中国农村正规金融与非正规金融对农民收入增长关系的比较研究

利用1995-2012年农民人均纯收入、农村正规金融融资额和非正规金融融资额的时间序列数据,分别构建农民收入与农村正规金融和非正规金融相关联的A1和A2系统,实证分析了我国农村正规金融和非正规金融对农民收入增长的影响情况.研究结果表明,农村正规金融和非正规金融同农民人均纯收入存在长期稳定的正向关系,在促进农民增收的效率上,农村非正规金融大于正规金融.但是农村正规金融和非正规金融不是农民收入的格兰杰原因,相反农民收入是农村正规金融和非正规金融的格兰杰原因.     

基于主成分-SFA的银行投入产出效率评价模型及实证

通过测算贷款、存款等投入要素对净利息收入的贡献,评价商业银行的投入产出效率,对银行的资本运营和监管机构的银行资本监管具有重要意义.原始投入变量过多和变量之间的高度相关都会对评价模型的估计和检验产生影响.创新和特色在于:一是通过提取互不相关的2个主成分,反映6个原始投入变量95%以上的信息.建立基于主成分的SFA模型,克服变量过多和变量高度相关对模型参数估计和检验的影响,解决原始投入变量高度相关导致的系数检验不显著和符号不正确问题.二是利用主成分回归,将主成分与投入变量的关系表达式代入基于主成分的SFA模型,进而确定投入变量的权重系数,建立银行的投入产出模型,反映6个投入变量对净利息收入的影响规律.实证研究结果表明:一是利用主成分建立的SFA模型系数检验显著,技术效率随时间增加.二是利息支出、贷款余额、总资产、存款总额、固定资产和员工人数产出弹性分别为0.287,0.272,0.254,0.086,0.072和0.053.因此影响银行净利息收入的主要因素为利息支出、贷款余额、总资产.存款总额、固定资产和员工人数对净利息收入的影响较小.三是18家商业银行的规模系数为1.025,银行的净利息收入表现出规模经济特征.     

Microscopic models for welfare measures addressing a reduction of economic inequality

We formulate a flexible micro‐to‐macro kinetic model which is able to explain the emergence of income profiles out of a whole of individual economic interactions. The model is expressed by a system of several nonlinear differential equations which involve parameters defined by probabilities. Society is described as an ensemble of individuals divided into income classes; the individuals exchange money through binary and ternary interactions, leaving the total wealth unchanged. The ternary interactions represent taxation and redistribution effects. Dynamics is investigated through computational simulations, the focus being on the effects that different fiscal policies and differently weighted welfare policies have on the long‐run income distributions. The model provides a tool which may contribute to the identification of the most effective actions toward a reduction of economic inequality. We find for instance that, under certain hypotheses, the Gini index is more affected by a policy of reduction of the welfare and subsidies for the rich classes than by an increase of the upper tax rate. Such a policy also has the effect of slightly increasing the total tax revenue. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 89–98, 2016     

Measuring Risk for Income Streams

A measure of risk is introduced for a sequence of random incomes adapted to some filtration. This measure is formulated as the optimal net present value of a stream of adaptively planned commitments for consumption. The new measure is calculated by solving a stochastic dynamic linear optimization problem which, for finite filtrations, reduces to a deterministic linear programming problem.We analyze properties of the new measure by exploiting the convexity and duality structure of the stochastic dynamic linear problem. The measure depends on the full distribution of the income process (not only on its marginal distributions) as well as on the filtration, which is interpreted as the available information about the future. The features of the new approach are illustrated by a numerical example.     

A characterization of inequality measures based on bilateral inequality

Summary. This article deals with inequality measures on income distributions. These measures are assumed to fulfil common axioms like the Principle of Progressive Transfers, Normalization, and Symmetry. Strict Monotonicity will be defined and is included in the basic set of axioms. If the measures are especially based on bilateral comparisons and if two additional conditions are fulfilled the bilateral inequality measure must be proportional to the absolute distance of the two incomes involved. It is remarkable that all these conditions do not give an answer whether an inequality measure for two incomes should be a quasi-convex or a quasi-concave function. This question is controversely discussed in economic research. Our surprising answer, however, is given by use of RAO's statistic concept defining the diversity of a population.     

中国城镇居民消费支出的多元非线性回归模型研究

以1993-2007年数据为根据,采用逐步回归方法,建立中国城镇居民消费支出的多元非线性回归模型.结果表明:影响居民消费支出的主要因素有收入、消费意愿、居住面积、商品零售价格.消费支出随着收入、消费意愿、商品零售价格的提高而提高,随着人均居住面积的增加而先增后减.而且多元非线性回归模型比线性回归模型更能准确描述客观实际结果.     

浅析老龄经济中的税收政策

本文放宽人口结构平稳假设,将总人口增长率与劳动人口增长率之差定义为老龄化率,在此基础上构建老龄经济模型,分析税收政策对老龄经济的影响。基于一定假设,老龄经济存在鞍型收敛路径,平衡增长路径上的人均收入增长率取决于技术进步率与老龄化率之差,技术进步率在积极应对人口老龄化方面至关重要。从税收角度看,资产收入税与企业利润税对老龄经济的扭曲程度较高,而劳动收入税与消费税的扭曲程度相对较低。通过削减政府支出与调整税收结构,减税不仅可以提高均衡的资本水平,若能够激励经济主体积极创新,还将会提高平衡路径上人均收入的增长速度。一定条件下,老龄经济中将会存在正的最优税率。     

SIS reaction–diffusion model with risk-induced dispersal under free boundary

A spatial susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model with a free boundary, where infected individuals disperse non-uniformly, is investigated in this study. Spatial heterogeneity and movement of individuals are essential factors that affect pandemics and the eradication of infectious diseases. Our goal is to investigate the effect of a dispersal strategy for infected individuals, known as risk-induced dispersal (RID), which represents the motility of infected individuals induced by risk depending on whether they are in a high- or a low-risk region. We first construct the basic reproduction number and then understand the manner in which a nonuniform movement of infected individuals affects the spreading–vanishing dichotomy of a disease in a one-dimensional domain. We conclude that even though the infected individuals reside in a high-risk initial domain, the disease can be eradicated from the region if the infected individuals move with a high sensitivity of RID as they disperse. Finally, we demonstrate our results via simulations for a one-dimensional case.     

基于双风险因子调整的剩余收益经营与投资最优决策模型

一般来说,公司净资产基于投向可以分为净经营性资产和净金融性资产。这两种净资产所面临的风险属性是不同的,净经营性资产承担的是经营性风险,而净金融性资产承担的则是金融性风险。作为公司多元化经营的决策者,在公司净资产一定的情况下,如何合理分配经营性投资与金融性投资间的比例并作出最优的投资决策,以达到公司价值最大化？本文基于一般形式的三阶段剩余收益模型,根据净经营性资产具有经营风险,净金融性资产则具有金融风险的风险识别与判断,从理论上构建出双风险因子调整的剩余收益经营与投资决策模型(Operation and Investment Decision Model of Dual-risks RIM, OIDM-DRRIM)。同时,利用中国资本市场1997年到2014年的经验数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明,所构建的OIDM-DRRIM具有非常好的适用性,公司经营决策者可以根据该模型计算出净经营性资产和净金融性资产之间的最优分配比例,进而作出使公司价值最大化的经营与投资决策。     

EQUIVALENCIES IN THE FISHERY

Abstract We consider the management of a resource by a sole owner whose utility depends on income and leisure. Income is generated from time spent harvesting the resource and time spent working for a wage in the nonfishing sector. Our analysis produces two results. (i) The sole owner maximizing discounted utility will seek to achieve the same steady‐state optimum as a manager seeking to maximize discounted net revenue. (ii) The approach paths to the common steady‐state optimum will be the same if the utility function is linear in income and separable in income and leisure. These equivalencies are illustrated in a numerical example.     

Optimal pricing for service facilities with self-optimizing customers

Many service industries (e.g., walk-in clinics, vehicle inspection facilities, and data-processing centers) have customers who choose among congested facilities, and select the facility with the lowest combination of travel cost plus congestion cost at the facility. In general, customers over-utilize attractive facilities, causing higher costs than if customers were assigned to facilities to minimize total costs. Optimal facility prices induce customers to select facilities that minimize total cost. We find optimal facility prices and show they equal charging customers for the impact (net costs and benefits) they cause for others. We explore a rich flexibility that allows a range of optimal prices, useful when negotiating the implementation of facility fees. Facility prices can be positive or negative (price discounts), and can be adjusted to be all positive, or to provide net subsidy or net revenue. We contribute to unifying and generalizing several disparate streams of research.     

Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection

This paper assesses optimal life cycle consumption and portfolio allocations when households have access to Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) variable annuities over their adult lifetimes. Our contribution is to evaluate demand for these products which provide access to equity investments with money-back guarantees, longevity risk hedging, and partially-refundable premiums, in a realistic world with uncertain labor and capital market income as well as mortality risk. Others have predicted that consumers will only purchase such annuities late in life, but we show that they will optimally purchase GMWBs prior to retirement, consistent with their recent rapid uptick in sales. Additionally, many individuals optimally adjust their portfolios and consumption streams along the way by taking cash withdrawals from the products. These products can substantially enhance consumption, by up to 10% for those who experience highly unfavorable experiences in the stock market.     

Strategic interactions between channel structure and demand enhancing services

In this paper, we investigate how opportunities to invest in demand enhancing services for a product line affect the interactions between a manufacturer and her dealer. Many demand enhancing services, e.g. after sales support, warranty repair etc. can be provided either by the manufacturer or they can be delegated to the dealer. We first show that when a manufacturer retains control of such services, the dealer will have an incentive to choose a decentralized organizational structure as a means of committing to non-product line pricing since this will encourage the manufacturer to invest more in demand enhancing services. We then consider a game that is played between the manufacturer and the dealer in which the dealer chooses between centralized (product line pricing) or decentralized (non-product line pricing) operations, and the manufacturer chooses between insourcing the services, i.e. providing them herself, or outsourcing them to the dealer. We find that the equilibrium depends on which, if any, channel partner has the ability to act as a Stackelberg leader. If the dealer can move first, then the equilibrium will always be outsourced services and centralized dealer operations. However, if either the manufacturer moves first or if neither partner can move first, then the equilibrium can be either insourced services and decentralized dealer operations or outsourced service and centralized dealer operations.