OR in developing countries: A review

The relevance of Operational Research (OR) in developing countries has increasingly engaged the attention of operational researchers in both the industrialised and less developed countries over the last 50 years. With this, there has been a considerable amount of interest in the potential for using OR in developing countries. One sign of this is the emergence of a number of initiatives to promote OR in developing countries and the number of new societies for OR that have emerged from the developing world. This paper is an attempt at providing an overall picture of the state of OR in the developing countries. In particular, it will look at the coverage in terms of countries and methods. It will also highlight the contribution OR is making towards the theme of poverty, the reduction of which is regarded as the key focus of development policy interventions as reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).     

Application of the analytical hierarchy process to establish health care waste management systems that minimise infection risks in developing countries

This paper focuses on the application of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique in the context of sustainable development to establish and optimise health care waste management (HCWM) systems in rural areas of developing countries. This is achieved by evaluating the way in which the AHP can best be combined with a life cycle management (LCM) approach, and addressing a main objective of HCWM systems, i.e. to minimize infection of patients and workers within the system. The modified approach was applied to two case studies: the sub-Saharan African countries of South Africa and Lesotho. Quantitative weightings from the AHP are used to identify alternative systems that have similar outcomes in meeting the systems objective, but may have different cost structures and infection risks. The two case studies illustrate how the AHP can be used (with strengths and weaknesses) in environmental engineering decision support in developing countries.     

Implementing and interpreting a data envelopment analysis model to assess the efficiency of health systems in developing countries

This paper presents a data envelopment analysis model that canbe implemented by public sector management for assessing theefficiency of a health system within a developing country. Toillustrate the practical implementation and interpretation ofthe model this study compares health systems across 51 developingcountries using 1998–99 data. The results of the analysisgenerated empirical indicators of efficiency, and we demonstratehow these may then be used by management in order to understandthe factors associated with good performance of a health system.     

Developing work schedules for an inter-city transit system with multiple driver types and fleet types

In developing work schedules, the job assignment flexibility exploits the variety of available skills, thus enabling the assignment of workers to perform different jobs. In this study, we investigate the problem of finding the mix of primary and secondary jobs in short term work schedules to meet, at minimum cost, the daily service requirements of an inter-city bus transit firm in Andra Pradesh India operating multiple fleet types. We formulate the problem as a set covering model with resource allocation constraints. We develop a branch-and-price procedure to solve the model. Computational results are provided.     

A multicriteria approach to sustainable energy supply for the rural poor

Despite significant progress in energy technology, about two billion people worldwide, particularly the poor in rural areas of developing countries, have no access to electricity. Decision-making concerning the most appropriate energy technology for supplying these areas has been difficult; existing energy decision-support tools have been useful but are mostly incomplete. Trade-offs, as well as impacts that can be positive or negative, may emerge as a result of implementing modern forms of energy. These can affect both community’s livelihoods as well as the confidence of decision-makers in relation to alternative technologies. The paper discusses a newly designed multicriteria approach and its novel robustness analysis for selecting energy generation systems for the improvement of livelihoods in rural areas. The proposed methodology builds upon a sustainable rural livelihoods framework to address multiple interactions and calculate trade-offs aimed at boosting decision-makers’ confidence in the selected technologies. The methodology is tested via a case study in Colombia.     

Quality assurance of e-learning in developing countries

In this paper some of the aspects of implementing measures for quality assurance of e-learning in developing countries are discussed. Also the main problems of establishing quality assurance of e-learning are illustrated. The advantages of adopting international measures of quality assurance in those countries together with several recommendations for the future and our conclusion are then given.     

A closer look at the economic-environmental disparities for regional development in China

Although China has harvested the fruits of its rapid economic growth over a period of several decades, it has encountered serious environmental problems, an important one being air pollution in the form of soot, dust, and sulfur dioxide. In considering the concept of ‘green-GDP’, this paper analyzes China’s regional development by examining its economic performance while taking into account various environmental factors. In addition to computing technical efficiency for 31 regions in China, a cross-efficiency measure is applied to differentiate the genuine DMUs. ‘Overall’ efficient regions and ‘false positive’ ones are recognized by a false positive index (FPI). It is found that the coastal regions perform on average better than the inland regions both economically and environmentally. For inefficient regions, the benchmark should be those regions with high cross-efficiency mean scores (e.g., Guangdong) rather than those with high self-appraisal scores (e.g., Shanghai). A cross-tabulation illustrating the difference between GDP-oriented performance and Pollution-oriented performance shows that the coastal regions make up the dominant proportion in terms of the benchmarks for economic-environmental optimization.     

Mathematical programming accelerates implementation of agro-industrial sugarcane complex

With the current demand for Brazilian sugarcane, the importance to investors of a faster implementation of agro-industrial complexes has been increasing. Estimates suggest that a 4-year implementation may enhance financial value creation by 10% when compared to the usual 6-year implementation. Given a desired production and a target implementation horizon, the quadratic programming model presented in this paper offers a feasible plantation schedule with minimum deviation from the plan. The model was used as an important tool in two business plans.     

Recent optimization models and trends in location,relocation, and dispatching of emergency medical vehicles

Over the past 10 years, a considerable amount of research has been devoted to the development of models to support decision making in the particular yet important context of Emergency Medical Services (EMS). More specifically, the need for advanced strategies to take into account the uncertainty and dynamism inherent to EMS, as well as the pertinence of socially oriented objectives, such as equity, and patient medical outcomes, have brought new and exciting challenges to the field. In this context, this paper summarizes and discusses modern modeling approaches to address problems related to ambulance fleet management, particularly those related to vehicle location and relocation, as well as dispatching decisions. Although it reviews early works on static ambulance location problems, this review concentrates on recent approaches to address tactical and operational decisions, and the interaction between these two types of decisions. Finally, it concludes on the current state of the art and identifies promising research avenues in the field.     

Granting and managing loans for micro-entrepreneurs: New developments and practical experiences

We present a methodology to grant and follow-up credits for micro-entrepreneurs. This segment of grantees is very relevant for many economies, especially in developing countries, but shows a behavior different to that of classical consumers where established credit scoring systems exist. Parts of our methodology follow a proven procedure we have applied successfully in several credit scoring projects. Other parts, such as cut-off point construction and model follow-up, however, had to be developed and constitute original contributions of the present paper. The results from two credit scoring projects we developed in Chile, one for a private bank and one for a governmental credit granting institution, provide interesting insights into micro-entrepreneurs’ repayment behavior which could also be interesting for the respective segment in countries with similar characteristics.     

Using phase-type models to cost stroke patient care across health,social and community services

Stroke disease places a heavy burden on society, incurring long periods of time in hospital and community care, and associated costs. Also stroke is a highly complex disease with diverse outcomes and multiple strategies for therapy and care. Previously a modeling framework has been developed which clusters patients into classes with respect to their length of stay (LOS) in hospital. Phase-type models were then used to describe patient flows for each cluster. Also multiple outcomes, such as discharge to normal residence, nursing home, or death can be permitted. We here add costs to this model and obtain the Moment Generating Function for the total cost of a system consisting of multiple transient phase-type classes with multiple absorbing states. This system represents different classes of patients in different hospital and community services states. Based on stroke patients’ data from the Belfast City Hospital, various scenarios are explored with a focus on comparing the cost of thrombolysis treatment under different regimes. The overall modeling framework characterizes the behavior of stroke patient populations, with a focus on integrated system-wide costing and planning, encompassing hospital and community services. Within this general framework we have developed models which take account of patient heterogeneity and multiple care options. Such complex strategies depend crucially on developing a deep engagement with the health care professionals and underpinning the models with detailed patient-specific data.     

Rationalising the use of Twitter by official organisations during risk events: Operationalising the Social Amplification of Risk Framework through causal loop diagrams

Communication of health risk events is a complex and challenging task. The advent of information and communication technology along with the following popularisation and widespread uptake of social media are reshaping the field of risk communication. Guided by key tenets of the Social Amplification of Risk Framework, this study developed a causal loop diagram, capturing the perceptions of professionals in health organisations regarding the role of Twitter during risk events. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of the causal loop diagram and its role with rationalising the use of Twitter in risk communication strategies. A key finding of the model is the central role of trust and its interrelationship with other factors during a risk event. A contribution is made to operational research through the novel use of soft system dynamics in risk communication, to risk communication through the investigation of the new medium Twitter and also to research on the Social Amplification of Risk Framework by providing a means through which to operationalise the framework.     

OR in healthcare: A European perspective

The European Working Group “Operational Research Applied to Health Services” (ORAHS) is one of the domain specific EURO Working Groups organized by EURO - the European Association of Operational Research Societies. In this paper we report on the development of ORAHS as a platform for OR in health, and analyse the papers presented at meetings over the 35 years of its existence. We propose a two-way framework for analysis, where one dimension is the nine stages of the product life cycle: identifying consumer requirements, designing a new service to meet these requirements, forecasting demand for such a service, securing resources for it, allocating these resources, developing Programs & Plans to use these resources for delivering the service, establishing criteria for service delivery, managing the performance of the service, and finally, evaluating its performance. The other dimension is a three-level classification into broad application areas referring to processes at different levels in healthcare: Patients & Providers, Units & Hospitals, and Regional & National. We use this framework to carry out a quantitative analysis of all the papers presented during the meetings of ORAHS since its inception in 1975. We then describe developments over this period in applying OR approaches and techniques to healthcare, and present an overview of the main application areas and challenges.     

Mid-term and short-term planning support for home health care services

In this paper we are looking at routing and scheduling problems arising in the context of home health care services. Many small companies are working in this sector in Germany and planning is still done manually, resulting in long planning times and relatively inflexible solutions.     

The importance of systems thinking in ethical and sustainable decision-making

Ethical values beyond the satisfaction of basic human needs are specific to each society at a given time. Modern societies are confronted to the challenges of disappearing natural resources, fierce competition on global markets, and climate change. In this paper we define ‘good’, and at the same time ‘ethical‘ decisions in the 21st century as being in accordance with the principles of Sustainable Development. Operations Research can assist sustainable decision-making in two ways: (1) through the tools of systems thinking, in particular system dynamics and soft system modelling, to provide insight into the way complex non-linear living systems and human societies function, and help making sustainable decisions, and (2) through educating and training young people in systems thinking. The paper presents examples of simple models that could serve in classrooms.     

A MILP model to design hybrid wind–photovoltaic isolated rural electrification projects in developing countries

Electrification systems based on the use of renewable energy sources are a suitable option for providing electricity to isolated communities autonomously. Wind and hybrid wind–photovoltaic (PV) systems are increasingly getting attention. To electrify scattered communities, designs that combine individual systems and microgrids have recently proven advantageous. In this paper we present a mathematical programming model to optimize the design of hybrid wind–PV systems that solves the location of the wind–PV generators and the design of the microgrids, taking into account the demand of the consumption points and the energy potential. The criterion is the minimization of the initial investment cost required to meet the demand. The proposed hybrid model is tested with realistic size instances and results show the instances are efficiently solved. Moreover, the model is applied to real case studies in Peru; obtained results verify that the hybrid model efficiently finds solutions that significantly reduce costs.     

Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas

For small resource-rich developing economies, specialization in raw exports is usually considered to be detrimental to growth and Resource-Based Industrialization (RBI) is often advocated to promote export diversification. This paper develops a new methodology to assess the performance of these RBI policies. We first formulate an adapted mean-variance portfolio model that explicitly takes into consideration: (i) a technology-based representation of the set of feasible export combinations and (ii) the cost structure of the resource processing industries. Second, we provide a computationally tractable reformulation of the resulting mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. Finally, we present an application to the case of natural gas, comparing current and efficient export-oriented industrialization strategies of nine gas-rich developing countries.     

Deployment of rural health facilities in a developing country

This study describes the problem of finding suitable sites for additional health facilities in a rural area in Bangladesh. The objective is to improve the accessibility of people to the health care system given the existing set of facilities. As is frequently the case in developing countries, activities designed to develop and improve differing sectors of the infrastructure are poorly integrated and ill-coordinated. As a result, decision-makers may make independent and individual decisions about locating new service facilities. Often, as has been the case in Bangladesh, these decisions are taken at a relatively low level, by officers of local government or by elected leaders in a region, or by a combination of these. In the absence of any formal analysis and generation of alternatives, the final decision may be made on political or pragmatic considerations. As a result the decisions are often far from optimal. Ultimately, better health care will enhance many sectors of a regional economy, and so the decision about where to invest in new or better resources is important for reasons over and above that of providing health care for the population. In this paper, the role of location-allocation modelling in developing countries is considered, and the specific Bangladeshi problem is considered as a maximal covering location problem which is solved by an efficient heuristic method.     

Searching for equilibrium positions in a game of political competition with restrictions

This paper considers a problem of political economy in which a Nash equilibrium study is performed in a proposed game with restrictions where the two major parties in a country vary their position within a politically flexible framework to increase their number of voters. The model as presented fits the reality of many countries. Moreover, it avoids the uniqueness of equilibrium positions. The problem is stated and solved from a geometric point of view.     

SimLean: Utilising simulation in the implementation of lean in healthcare

Discrete-event simulation (DES) and lean are approaches that have a similar motivation: improvement of processes and service delivery. Both are being used to help improve the delivery of healthcare, but rarely are they used together. This paper explores from a theoretical and an empirical perspective the potential complementary roles of DES and lean in healthcare. The aim is to increase the impact of both approaches in the improvement of healthcare systems. Out of this exploration, the ‘SimLean’ approach is developed in which three roles for DES with lean are identified: education, facilitation and evaluation. These roles are demonstrated through three examples of DES in action with lean. The work demonstrates how the fusion of DES with lean can improve both stakeholder engagement with DES and the impact of lean.