A minimal repair replacement model with two types of failure and a safety constraint

Consider a system subject to two types of failures. If the failure is of type 1, the system is minimally repaired, and a cost C₁ is incurred. If the failure is of type 2, the system is minimally repaired with probability p and replaced with probability 1−p  . The associated costs are _C2,_m$C_{2\text{,}m}$ and _C2,_r$C_{2\text{,}r}$, respectively. Failures of type 2 are safety critical and to control the risk, management has specified a requirement that the probability of at least one such failure occurring in the interval [0, A] should not exceed a fixed probability limit ω. The problem is to determine an optimal planned replacement time T, minimizing the expected discounted costs under the safety constraint. A cost C_r is incurred whenever a planned replacement is performed. Conditions are established for when the safety constraint affects the optimal replacement time and causes increased costs.     

Optimal warranty policies for systems with imperfect repair

We investigate a system whose basic warranty coverage is minimal repair up to a specified warranty length. An additional service is offered whereby first failure is restored up to the consumers’ chosen level of repair. The problem is studied under two system replacement strategies: periodic maintenance before and after warranty. It turns out that our model generalizes the model of Rinsaka and Sandoh [K. Rinsaka, H. Sandoh, A stochastic model with an additional warranty contract, Computers and Mathematics with Applications 51 (2006) 179–188] and the model of Yeh et al. [R.H. Yeh, M.Y. Chen, C.Y. Lin, Optimal periodic replacement policy for repairable products under free-repair warranty, European Journal of Operational Research 176 (2007) 1678–1686]. We derive the optimal maintenance period and optimal level of repair based on the structures of the cost function and failure rate function. We show that under certain assumptions, the optimal repair level for additional service is an increasing function of the replacement time. We provide numerical studies to verify some of our results.     

A geometric process maintenance model with preventive repair

In this paper, a geometric process maintenance model with preventive repair is studied. A maintenance policy (T, N) is applied by which the system will be repaired whenever it fails or its operating time reaches T whichever occurs first, and the system will be replaced by a new and identical one following the Nth failure. The long-run average cost per unit time is determined. An optimal policy (T^∗, N^∗) could be determined numerically or analytically for minimizing the average cost. A new class of lifetime distribution which takes into account the effect of preventive repair is studied that is applied to determine the optimal policy (T^∗, N^∗).     

A maintenance model with failures and inspection following Markovian arrival processes and two repair modes

We consider a deteriorating system submitted to external and internal failures, whose deterioration level is known by means of inspections. There are two types of repairs: minimal and perfect, depending on the deterioration level, each one following a different phase-type distribution. The failures and the inspections follow different Markovian arrival processes (MAP). Under these assumptions, the system is governed by a generalized Markov process, whose state space and generator are constructed. This general model includes the phase-type renewal process as a special case. The distribution of the number of minimal and perfect repairs between two inspections are determined. A numerical application optimizing costs is performed, and different particular cases of the model are compared.     

The valuation of contingent capital with catastrophe risks

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007) indicates that unanticipated catastrophic events could increase with time because of global warming. Therefore, it seems inadequate to assume that arrival process of catastrophic events follows a pure Poisson process adopted by most previous studies (e.g. [Louberge, H., Kellezi, E., Gilli, M., 1999. Using catastrophe-linked securities to diversify insurance risk: A financial analysis of lCAT bonds. J. Risk Insurance 22, 125–146; Lee, J.-P., Yu, M.-T., 2002. Pricing default-risky CAT bonds with moral hazard and basis risk. J. Risk Insurance 69, 25–44; Cox, H., Fairchild, J., Pedersen, H., 2004. Valuation of structured risk management products. Insurance Math. Econom. 34, 259–272; Jaimungal, S., Wang, T., 2006. Catastrophe options with stochastic interest rates and compound Poisson losses. Insurance Math. Econom., 38, 469–483]. In order to overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes a doubly stochastic Poisson process to model the arrival process for catastrophic events. Furthermore, we generalize the assumption in the last reference mentioned above to define the general loss function presenting that different specific loss would have different impacts on the drop in stock price. Based on modeling the arrival rates for catastrophe risks, the pricing formulas of contingent capital are derived by the Merton measure. Results of empirical experiments of contingent capital prices as well as sensitivity analyses are presented.     

A novel repair model for imperfect maintenance

^** Email: shaomin.wu{at}reading.ac.uk Commonly used repair rate models for repairable systems in thereliability literature are renewal processes, generalised renewalprocesses or non-homogeneous Poisson processes. In additionto these models, geometric processes (GP) are studied occasionally.The GP, however, can only model systems with monotonously changing(increasing, decreasing or constant) failure intensities. Thispaper deals with the reliability modelling of failure processesfor repairable systems where the failure intensity shows a bathtub-typenon-monotonic behaviour. A new stochastic process, i.e. an extendedPoisson process, is introduced in this paper. Reliability indicesare presented, and the parameters of the new process are estimated.Experimental results on a data set demonstrate the validityof the new process.     

A bivariate mixed policy for a simple repairable system based on preventive repair and failure repair

In this paper, a simple repairable system (i.e. a one-component repairable system with one repairman) with preventive repair and failure repair is studied. Assume that the preventive repair is adopted before the system fails, when the system reliability drops to an undetermined constant R  , the work will be interrupted and the preventive repair is executed at once. And assume that the preventive repair of the system is “as good as new” while the failure repair of the system is not, and the deterioration of the system is stochastic. Under these assumptions, by using geometric process, we present a bivariate mixed policy (R,N)$(R\text{,}N)$, respectively based on a scale of the system reliability and the failure-number of the system. Our aim is to determine an optimal mixed policy (R,N)^∗$(R\text{,}N{)}^{\ast }$ such that the long-run average cost per unit time (i.e. the average cost rate) is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived, and the corresponding optimal mixed policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, a numerical example is given where the working time of the system yields a Weibull distribution. Some comparisons with a certain existing policy are also discussed by numerical methods.     

一类重随机Poisson过程在信用风险定价模型中的应用

运用带随机尺度因子的重随机Poisson过程描述信用衍生产品的违约可能，在违约强度λ(t)是随机变量的情况下得到违约时间τ的分布密度函数，并推导出信用衍生产品的定价模型．     

An extended stochastic failure model for a system subject to random shocks

In this article, a stochastic failure model for a system subject to a random shock process is studied. It is assumed that a fatal shock results in an immediate system failure, whereas a non-fatal shock may increase the susceptibility of the system to failure. The lifetime distribution of the system and its failure rate function are derived, and the effect of environmental factors on the failure process of the system is also investigated. Lifetimes of systems operated under different environmental conditions are stochastically compared.     

违约风险的交换期权的定价模型与解法

含交易对手违约风险的交换期权采用混合模型定价,借助公司价值模型中的补偿率,同时采用以强度为基础的违约函数来确定违约的发生.假定违约强度遵从均值回复的重随机Poisson过程：且违约强度过程与标的资产,企业价值都相关.利用等价鞅测度变换方法导出含有违约风险的交换期权的价格闭解.     

Performance modeling of state dependent system with mixed standbys and two modes of failure

The present investigation deals with a multicomponent repairable system with state dependent rates. For smooth functioning of the system, mixed standbys (warm and cold) are provided so that the failed units are immediately replaced by standbys if available. To prevent congestion in the system due to failure of units, permanent along with additional repairmen are provided to restore the failed units. It is assumed that the units may fail in two modes. The units have exponential life time and repair time distributions. The failed unit may balk in case of heavy load of failed units. The failed units may also wait in the queue and renege on finding the repairmen busy according to a pre-specified rule. The Chapman–Kolmogorov equations, governing the model in the form of matrix are constructed using transition flow rates of different states. The steady state solution of queue size distribution is derived using product formula. A cost function is suggested to determine the optimal number of warm and cold standbys units required for the desired level of quality of service. The numerical illustrations are carried out to explore the effect of different parameters on performance measures.     

A hybrid maintenance model with imperfect inspection for a system with deterioration and Poisson failure

A new maintenance model for a system with both deterioration and Poisson failures is proposed. In this model, at any time-instant G _S and when the system is operating, one of the following decisions may be taken: (1) stop the system to perform a scheduled minimal maintenance; (2) stop the system to perform an inspection; and (3) no action and allow the system to go on with its operation. Following an inspection, based on the deterioration condition of the system, one of the following decisions may be taken: (a) if the system is in a ‘good’ condition, no maintenance action is taken and a number of periodic minimal maintenance activities are scheduled, starting T1 later; (b) if the system is in an ‘intermediate’ condition, a minimal maintenance is performed and an inspection is scheduled for T2 later (T2 < T1); and (c) if the system is in a ‘bad’ condition, a major maintenance is performed and a number of periodic minimal maintenances are scheduled, starting T1 later. In addition, a deterioration failure is restored by a major repair and a Poisson failure is restored by a minimal repair. Generalised stochastic Petri nets are used to represent and analyse the model, which represents a ‘composite’ maintenance strategy. Based on maximisation of the throughput of the system the benefit of this model compared to (1) an equivalent periodic inspection model and (2) an equivalent planned scheduled maintenance model, is demonstrated. This study presents a new hybrid model with a general framework for incorporating various types of maintenance policies. Also by incorporation of a number of features, this model will be more applicable to real world technical systems (complex systems), although it can be applied to individual components that are part of a complex system.     

A general age-replacement model with minimal repair under renewing free-replacement warranty

A general age-replacement model in which incorporates minimal repair, planned and unplanned replacement, is considered in this paper for products under a renewing free-replacement warranty policy. For both warranted and non-warranted products, cost models from the user’s perspective are developed, and the corresponding optimal replacement ages are derived such that the long-run expected cost rate is minimized. The impacts of a product warranty on the optimal replacement model are investigated analytically. Furthermore, we show that the optimal replacement age for a warranted product is closer to the end of the warranty period than for a non-warranted product. Finally, numerical examples are given for illustration.     

一类具有随机利率的跳扩散模型的期权定价

假定股票价格的跳过程为比Po isson过程更一般的跳过程一类特殊的更新过程,在风险中性的假设下,推导出了具有随机利率的跳扩散模型的欧式期权定价公式.从而推广了文[3]的结果.     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with preventive repair

In this paper, the repair-replacement problem for a deteriorating cold standby repairable system is investigated. The system consists of two dissimilar components, in which component 1 is the main component with use priority and component 2 is a supplementary component. In order to extend the working time and economize the running cost of the system, preventive repair for component 1 is performed every time interval T, and the preventive repair is “as good as new”. As a supplementary component, component 2 is only used at the time that component 1 is under preventive repair or failure repair. Assumed that the failure repair of component 1 follows geometric process repair while the repair of component 2 is “as good as new”. A bivariate repair-replacement policy (T, N) is adopted for the system, where T is the interval length between preventive repairs, and N is the number of failures of component 1. The aim is to determine an optimal bivariate policy (T, N)^∗ such that the average cost rate of the system is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived and the corresponding optimal bivariate policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, a Gamma distributed example is given to illustrate the theoretical results for the proposed model.     

Optimal number of minimal repairs before ordering spare for preventive replacement

This paper presents a model for determining the optimal number of minimal repairs before ordering spare for preventive replacement. By introducing the costs of ordering, repair, downtime, replacement, and the salvage value of an un-failed system, the expected long-term cost rates and cost effectiveness are derived. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the optimal number of minimal repairs, which minimizes the cost rate or maximizes the cost effectiveness, is given by a unique solution of an equation. A numerical example is also given for illustration of the proposed model.     

Piecewise deterministic Markov process model for flexible manufacturing systems with preventive maintenance

In this paper, we consider a maintenance and production model of a flexible manufacturing system. The maintenance activity involves lubrication, routine adjustments, etc., which reduce the machine failure rates and therefore reduce the aging of the machines. The objective of the problem is to choose the rate of maintenance and the rate of production that minimize the overall costs of inventory/shortage, production, and maintenance. It is shown that the value function is locally Lipschitz. Then, the existence of the optimal control policy is shown, and necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality are obtained.This research has been supported by NSERC-Canada, Grant OGP-003644 and FCAR-NC0271F.     

考虑不完全检测的冲击模型最优维修策略

针对制造系统中设备检测不完全的情形,研究基于不完全检测的冲击模型的周期检测、维修联合策略．通过定期检测获知系统的劣化状态以进行必要的预防性维修．在假设系统是退化的且有k个不同故障状态的条件下,以最小化系统运行成本为目标,以检测周期T、系统更换前故障次数Ⅳ为联合决策变量,利用更新过程理论建立了系统平均费用率C（T,N）的数学模型,并且给出最优联合策略的数值算法．最后借助数值例子演示了该模型,分析了检测水平对系统运行成本的影响．     

A generalized JM model with applications to imperfect debugging in software reliability

For their nice mathematical properties, state space models have been widely used, especially for forecasting. Over the last decades, the study of tracking software reliability by statistical models has attracted scientists’ attention. However, most of models focus on perfect debugging although practically imperfect debugging arises everywhere. In this paper, a non-Gaussian state space model is modified to predict software failure time with imperfect debugging. In fact, this model is very flexible so that we can modify the system equation in this model to satisfy the various situations. Besides, this model is suitable for tracking software reliability, and applied to two well known datasets on software failures.