A consistency and consensus-based method to group decision making with interval linguistic preference relations

Preference relations are a powerful tool to address decision-making problems. In some situations, because of the complexity of decision-making problems and the inherent uncertainty, the decision makers cannot express their preferences by using numerical values. Interval linguistic preference relations, which are more reliable and informative for the decision-makers’ preferences, are a good choice to cope with this issue. Just as with the other types of preference relations, the consistency and consensus analysis is very importance to ensure the reasonable ranking order by using interval linguistic preference relations. Considering this situation, this paper introduces a consistency concept for interval linguistic preference relations. To measure the consistency of interval linguistic preference relations, a consistency measure is defined. Then, a consistency-based programming model is built, by which the consistent linguistic preference relations with respect to each object can be obtained. To cope with the inconsistency case, two models for deriving the adjusted consistent linguistic preference relations are constructed. Then, a consistency-based programming model to estimate the missing values is built. After that, we present a group consensus index and present some of its desirable properties. Furthermore, a group consensus-based model to determine the weights of the decision makers with respect to each object is established. Finally, an approach to group decision making with interval linguistic preference relations is developed, which is based on the consistency and consensus analysis. Meanwhile, the associated numerical examples are offered to illustrate the application of the procedure.     

Pseudo-criteria versus linear utility function in stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

Stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multi-criteria decision support method for multiple decision-makers (DMs) in discrete problems. SMAA does not require explicit or implicit preference information from the DMs. Instead, the method is based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the valuations that would make each alternative the preferred one. Partial preference information can be represented in the weight space analysis through weight distributions. In this paper we compare two variants of the SMAA method using randomly generated test problems with 2–12 criteria and 4–12 alternatives. In the original SMAA, a utility or value function models the DMs' preference structure, and the inaccuracy or uncertainty of the criteria is represented by probability distributions. In SMAA-3, ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria are used instead. Both methods compute for each alternative an acceptability index measuring the variety of different valuations that supports this alternative, and a central weight vector representing the typical valuations resulting in this decision. We seek answers to three questions: (1) how similar are the results provided by the decision models, (2) what kind of systematic differences exists between the models, and (3) how could one select indifference and preference thresholds of the pseudo-criteria model to match a utility model with given probability distributions?     

Note on “Some models for deriving the priority weights from interval fuzzy preference relations”

Deriving accurate interval weights from interval fuzzy preference relations is key to successfully solving decision making problems. Xu and Chen (2008) proposed a number of linear programming models to derive interval weights, but the definitions for the additive consistent interval fuzzy preference relation and the linear programming model still need to be improved. In this paper, a numerical example is given to show how these definitions and models can be improved to increase accuracy. A new additive consistency definition for interval fuzzy preference relations is proposed and novel linear programming models are established to demonstrate the generation of interval weights from an interval fuzzy preference relation.     

DIS-CARD: a new method of multiple criteria sorting to classes with desired cardinality

In this paper, we present a new preference disaggregation method for multiple criteria sorting problems, called DIS-CARD. Real-life experience indicates the need of considering decision making situations in which a decision maker (DM) specifies a desired number of alternatives to be assigned to single classes or to unions of some classes. These situations require special methods for multiple criteria sorting subject to desired cardinalities of classes. DIS-CARD deals with such a problem, using the ordinal regression approach to construct a model of DM’s preferences from preference information provided in terms of exemplary assignments of some reference alternatives, together with the above desired cardinalities. We develop a mathematical model for incorporating such preference information via mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Then, we adapt the MILP model to two types of preference models: an additive value function and an outranking relation. Illustrative example is solved to illustrate the methodology.     

Decision maker preferences for information in complex decision making: New directions for OR intervention

Operations research models are used in many business and non-business entities to support a variety of decision making activities, primarily well-defined, operational decisions. This is due to the traditional emphasis of these models on optimal solutions to pre-specified problems. Some attempts have been made to use OR models in support of more complex, strategic decision making. Traditionally, these models have been developed without explicit consideration for the information processing abilities and limitations of the decision makers, who interact with, provide input to, and receive output from such models.Research in judgement and decision making show that human decisions are influenced by a number of factors including, but not limited to, information presentation modes; information content, modes, e.g., quantitative versus qualitative; order effects such as primacy, recency; and simultaneous versus sequential presentation of data.This article presents empirical research findings involving executive business decision makers and their preferences for information in decision making scenarios. These preference functions were evaluated using OR techniques. The results indicate that decision makers view information in different ways. Some decision makers prefer qualitative, narrative, social information, whereas other prefer quantitative, numerical, firm specific information. Results also show that decision making tasks influence the preference structure of decision makers, but that in general, the preference are relatively stable across tasks.The results imply that for OR models to be more useful in support of non-routine decision making, attention needs to be focused on the information content and presentation effects of model inputs and outputs.     

A new model and solution method for product line design with pricing

Existing customer preference based product design models do not consider product prices and consumer budgets. These models assume that a purchase is based only on the satisfaction obtained from the product, irrespective of the product price and customer budget. However, when products are expensive relative to buyers' budgets, the effect of prices and budgets must be considered in addition to customer satisfaction. Most current models, moreover, assume that a low preference for one product characteristic is compensated by high preference for another, which may not hold for unacceptable levels of characteristics. For such products, we incorporate prices, budget constraints, and minimum acceptable thresholds in our model. To solve the model we develop a highly accurate, robust and efficient Beam Search (BS) based heuristic that identifies optimal or near optimal product lines. The heuristic is tested on 300 simulated problems and an application. It is also compared to a Genetic Algorithms (GA) based heuristic. We found that our heuristic worked better than the GA heuristic in identifying optimal and near optimal solutions quickly. We also give detailed examples that illustrate the heuristic and demonstrate a pricing analysis application of the model.     

Vector network equilibrium problems with elastic demands

We consider vector models for complex systems with spatially distributed elements which arise in communication and transportation networks. In order to describe the flow distribution within such a network, we utilize the equilibrium approach, which extends the shortest path one. Being based on this approach, we investigate several networking control problems, with taking into account many factors. As a result, general vector equilibrium problems models with complex behavior of elements are suggested. In particular, they involve elastic demand functions. Due to the presence of many factors, we utilize multicriteria models with respect to different preference relations. The corresponding problems admit efficient solution methods within optimization and equilibrium frameworks.     

Preference Order Stochastic Knapsack Problems: Methodological Issues

A preference order dynamic programming model proposed in the literature for solving stochastic knapsack problems is shown to be somewhat limited from both the methodological and computational points of view. A counterexample is presented contradicting the optimality of a procedure designed for normal variates.     

Risk-control approach for bottleneck transportation problem with randomness and fuzziness

Solving transportation problems is essential in engineering and supply chain management, where profitability depends on optimal traffic flow. This study proposes risk-control approaches for two bottleneck transportation problems with random variables and preference levels to objective functions with risk parameters. Each proposed model is formulated as a multiobjective programming problem using robust-based optimization derived from stochastic chance constraints. Since it is impossible to obtain a transportation pattern that optimizes all objective functions, our proposed models are numerically solved by introducing an aggregation function for the multiobjective problem. An exact algorithm that performs deterministic equivalent transformations and introduces auxiliary problems is also developed.     

A Framework for Unbiased Model Selection Based on Boosting

Variable and model selection are of major concern in many statistical applications, especially in high-dimensional regression models. Boosting is a convenient statistical method that combines model fitting with intrinsic model selection. We investigate the impact of base-learner specification on the performance of boosting as a model selection procedure. We show that variable selection may be biased if the covariates are of different nature. Important examples are models combining continuous and categorical covariates, especially if the number of categories is large. In this case, least squares base-learners offer increased flexibility for the categorical covariate and lead to a preference even if the categorical covariate is noninformative. Similar difficulties arise when comparing linear and nonlinear base-learners for a continuous covariate. The additional flexibility in the nonlinear base-learner again yields a preference of the more complex modeling alternative. We investigate these problems from a theoretical perspective and suggest a framework for bias correction based on a general class of penalized least squares base-learners. Making all base-learners comparable in terms of their degrees of freedom strongly reduces the selection bias observed in naive boosting specifications. The importance of unbiased model selection is demonstrated in simulations. Supplemental materials including an application to forest health models, additional simulation results, additional theorems, and proofs for the theorems are available online.     

Tree-Structured Mixed-Effects Regression Modeling for Longitudinal Data

Tree-structured models have been widely used because they function as interpretable prediction models that offer easy data visualization. A number of tree algorithms have been developed for univariate response data and can be extended to analyze multivariate response data. We propose a tree algorithm by combining the merits of a tree-based model and a mixed-effects model for longitudinal data. We alleviate variable selection bias through residual analysis, which is used to solve problems that exhaustive search approaches suffer from, such as undue preference to split variables with more possible splits, expensive computational cost, and end-cut preference. Most importantly, our tree algorithm discovers trends over time on each of the subspaces from recursive partitioning, while other tree algorithms predict responses. We investigate the performance of our algorithm with both simulation and real data studies. We also develop an R package melt that can be used conveniently and freely. Additional results are provided as online supplementary material.     

城市消防站点布局的改进启发式算法

面对数量较多需要及时处理的突发事故,为了满足最短应急时间限制,最低应急资源数和最少的出救点等目标,在城市规划决策中,考虑在一个确定应急限制期下的安全消防站选址问题,给出一个反映决策者对时间和费用偏好的折衷选址方案十分必要.从实际应用出发,运用改进启发式算法方法研究时间与资源限制条件下的多出救点组合模型求解问题.给出了应急限制期和安全消防设施点建立的费用模型,从理论上证明了模型求解方法的正确性.在给定限制期条件下,通过分析得出应急服务设施点选择方法.通过算例说明该计算方法的具体应用,为交通安全消防站点选择提供参考,该方法还适用于诸如医院急救站等类似公共设施的规划建设.     

ELECTRE: Robust ordinal regression for outranking methods

We present a new method, called ELECTRE^GKMS, which employs robust ordinal regression to construct a set of outranking models compatible with preference information. The preference information supplied by the decision maker (DM) is composed of pairwise comparisons stating the truth or falsity of the outranking relation for some real or fictitious reference alternatives. Moreover, the DM specifies some ranges of variation of comparison thresholds on considered pseudo-criteria. Using robust ordinal regression, the method builds a set of values of concordance indices, concordance thresholds, indifference, preference, and veto thresholds, for which all specified pairwise comparisons can be restored. Such sets are called compatible outranking models. Using these models, two outranking relations are defined, necessary and possible. Whether for an ordered pair of alternatives there is necessary or possible outranking depends on the truth of outranking relation for all or at least one compatible model, respectively. Distinguishing the most certain recommendation worked out by the necessary outranking, and a possible recommendation worked out by the possible outranking, ELECTRE^GKMS answers questions of robustness concern. The method is intended to be used interactively with incremental specification of pairwise comparisons, possibly with decreasing confidence levels. In this way, the necessary and possible outranking relations can be, respectively, enriched or impoverished with the growth of the number of pairwise comparisons. Furthermore, the method is able to identify troublesome pieces of preference information which are responsible for incompatibility. The necessary and possible outranking relations are to be exploited as usual outranking relations to work out recommendation in choice or ranking problems. The introduced approach is illustrated by a didactic example showing how ELECTRE^GKMS can support real-world decision problems.     

Binary interactions and subset choice

Subset evaluation and choice problems abound in practical decision settings. They are often analyzed with linear objective functions that value subsets as sums of utilities of items in the subsets. This simplifies assessment and computational tasks but runs a risk of substantial suboptimality because it disregards evaluative interdependencies among items.This paper examines a binary-interaction model that accounts for preference interdependencies between items. Ordinal and cardinal versions of the model are axiomatized and compared to the simpler linear model as well as the general model that incorporates all orders of interdependence. Comparisons of computational complexity for standard subset-choice problems are made between the linear and binary-interaction models.     

基于犹豫模糊偏好关系FMEA方法的改进

为有效解决产品在研发过程中存在的一系列质量可靠性问题,本文提出了一种新的基于犹豫模糊偏好关系的改进FMEA方法。考虑到专家小组对不同失效模式评估时主要依据相关标准和自身经验,存在犹豫模糊不确定或自身偏好问题。本文首先对风险因子的评分标准进行犹豫模糊化,并用犹豫模糊偏好关系对失效模式的相对风险矩阵进行处理;其次,将得到的具有犹豫模糊偏好关系的综合偏好值与犹豫模糊评价信息相结合,得到改进的风险优先数,从而得出新的失效模式风险评估顺序对FMEA进行改进;最后,利用改进的FMEA模型对产品研发过程中的质量风险进行分析验证,使得风险结果更接近实际情况,进而提高研发成功率,显示该方法可行、有效。     

An integrated algebraic approach to conflict resolution with three-level preference

An integrated algebraic approach is developed to calculate stabilities in multiple decision maker graph models with three levels of preference. The algebraic approach establishes an integrated paradigm for stability analysis and status quo analysis under different preference structures, such as two-level preference and three-level preference. Difficulties in coding algorithms to analyze stabilities, rooted in their logical representation, led to the development of matrix representations of preference and explicit matrix calculations to determine stabilities. Here, the algebraic approach is used to represent graph models with three levels of preference and to conduct stability analysis for such models. The algebraic approach facilitates the development of new stability concepts and algorithms to calculate them, and reveals an inherent link between status quo analysis and traditional stability analysis. Hence, it will facilitate the design of an integrated decision support system for the graph model for conflict resolution.     

Some issues in mathematical modelling of multiple criteria decision-making problems

Models for analyzing and solving multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems are difficult to evaluate and compare, because they are intended for diverse orderings of a set of feasible alternatives. These models are based on a variety of assumptions about the decision maker's preferences and use different types of preference information. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed for evaluating and comparing discrete alternative MCDM models available for a given decision situation. The procedure employed in the framework guides the user through an analysis of the decision situation making it possible for a decision maker or analyst to select the most appropriate MCDM model from among several alternative feasible models.     

基于预售的生鲜供应链销售模式选择与定价研究

研究预售下由供应商与零售商构成的生鲜供应链的销售模式选择与定价策略,其中包括分散与集中两种销售模式,撇脂与渗透两种定价策略。结果表明,在网络消费者对实体渠道偏好较低时,分散与集中模式均会选择撇脂定价,反之选择渗透定价。撇脂定价下,集中模式中零售商可以通过调节两个渠道的价格占有更大的市场,获取高于分散模式下的利润。而分散模式中,由于两个零售商会存在竞争,因此为了获得竞争优势该模式下的定价会存在低价销售的情形。比较销售模式可知,在网络消费者占比少或占比多但对实体渠道偏好越小时,供应商在分散模式下能获得更高的利润,反之,集中模式对供应商更有利。但是,对零售商而言,分散模式更有利于实体渠道,而集中模式更有利于网络渠道。     

含有偏好的DEA-BWM评价方法研究

针对传统的DEA模型在评估过程中并未考虑决策者对相关指标权重的偏好,将最优最差方法(BWM)嵌入到传统DEA模型中,基于决策者偏好排序的判断矩阵,构建一种含有偏好的DEA-BWM评价方法。首先在保持传统DEA方法的优势基础上,构建了CCR-BWM评价模型对各DMU进行评价。同时考虑为了便于各决策单元在统一权重基础上相互比较,构建了CSW-BWM公共权重模型。另外考虑决策单元自评和互评,构建了NCE-BWM中立型交叉效率。然后采用min-max方法分别将上述三种多目标评价模型转换为单目标线性规划进行求解。最后,选择一组算例对三种模型的有效性与合理性进行验证。