Two applications of Brouwer’s fixed point theorem: in insurance and in biology models

In the first part of the article, a new interesting system of difference equations is introduced. It is developed for re-rating purposes in general insurance. A nonlinear transformation φ of a d-dimensional (d ≥ 2) Euclidean space is introduced that enables us to express the system in the form f^t+1:=φ( f^t), t = 0, 1, 2,. …. Under typical actuarial assumptions, existence of solutions of that system is proven by means of Brouwer’s fixed point theorem in normed spaces. In addition, conditions that guarantee uniqueness of a solution are given. The second, smaller part of the article is about Leslie–Gower’s system of d ≥ 2 difference equations. We focus on the system that satisfies conditions consistent with weak inter-specific competition. We prove existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium of the model under surprisingly simple and very general conditions. Even though the two parts of this article have applications in two different sciences, they are connected with similar mathematics, in particular by our use of Brouwer’s fixed point theorem.     

Bayesian Variable and Transformation Selection in Linear Regression

This article suggests a method for variable and transformation selection based on posterior probabilities. Our approach allows for consideration of all possible combinations of untransformed and transformed predictors along with transformed and untransformed versions of the response. To transform the predictors in the model, we use a change-point model, or “change-point transformation,” which can yield more interpretable models and transformations than the standard Box–Tidwell approach. We also address the problem of model uncertainty in the selection of models. By averaging over models, we account for the uncertainty inherent in inference based on a single model chosen from the set of models under consideration. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC³) method which allows us to average over linear regression models when the space of models under consideration is very large. This considers the selection of variables and transformations at the same time. In an example, we show that model averaging improves predictive performance as compared with any single model that might reasonably be selected, both in terms of overall predictive score and of the coverage of prediction intervals. Software to apply the proposed methodology is available via StatLib.     

A genetic algorithm approach for solving a closed loop supply chain model: A case of battery recycling

Due to the implementation of government legislation, social responsibility, environmental concern, economic benefits and customer awareness the industries are under a great pressure not only to provide environmentally friendly products but also to take back the product after its use. The issue in reverse logistics is to take back the used products, either under warranty or at the end of use or at the end of lease, so that the products or its parts are appropriately disposed, recycled, reused or remanufactured. In order to overcome this issue, it is necessary to setup a logistics network for arising goods flow from end users to manufacturers. In this study, the optimum usage of secondary lead recovered from the spent lead–acid batteries for producing new battery is presented. The disposal in surface or sewage water or land of liquid content of the lead–acid batteries is strictly restricted. Because of the need for environmental protection and the lack of considerable lead resources, the spent batteries treatment and lead recovery are becoming crucial now-a-days. The objective of this paper is to develop a multi echelon, multi period, multi product closed loop supply chain network model for product returns and the decisions are made regarding material procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal. The proposed heuristics based genetic algorithm (GA) is applied as a solution methodology to solve mixed integer linear programming model (MILP). Finally the computational results obtained through GA are compared with the solutions obtained by GAMS optimization software. The solution reveals that the proposed methodology performs very well in terms of both quality of solutions obtained and computational time.     

L2 orbital stability of Dirac solitons in the massive Thirring model

We prove L² orbital stability of Dirac solitons in the massive Thirring model. Our method uses local well posedness of the massive Thirring model in L², conservation of the charge functional, and the auto–Bäcklund transformation. The latter transformation exists because the massive Thirring model is integrable via the inverse scattering transform method.     

On equalities for BLUEs under misspecified Gauss-Markov models

This paper studies relationships between the best linear unbiased estimators （BLUEs） of an estimable parametric functions Kβunder the Gauss-Markov model {y, Xβ, σ^2]E} and its misspecified model {y, X0β,σ^2∑0}. In addition, relationships between BLUEs under a restricted Gauss Markov model and its misspecified model are also investigated.     

Integral transformation of solutions for a Fuchsian-class equation corresponding to the Okamoto transformation of the Painlevé VI equation

We show that under the Euler integral transformation with the kernel (x−z)^−α, some solutions of the Fuchs equations (the original pair for the Painlevé VI equation) pass into solutions of a system of the same form with the parameters changed according to the Okamoto transformation. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 146, No. 3, pp. 355–364, March, 2006.     

A STATE SPACE BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF PACIFIC HALIBUT

Abstract Evaluation of potential economic consequences of alternative management actions requires an understanding of how the biological stock will be affected by the management action and an understanding of the response of economic systems to changes in the timing, magnitude, and size distribution of harvests and changes in the location and catchability of the biological stock. We use a hybrid structural time series model to represent Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) stock and recruitment dynamics and a system of structural equations to represent supply and demand relationships for Pacific halibut from Alaska and British Columbia. Model simulations explore the economic effects of changes in recruitment success, growth rate, and carrying capacity, and changes in international supplies of halibut.     

Semi-dynamic modelling of heterogeneous land combat

We propose a semi-dynamic approach to tactical level land combat modelling from the attacker's viewpoint. Our approach decomposes a battle between heterogeneous forces into stages and mini battles. For each mini battle in a stage, we use three models: a mathematical programming model for optimizing force allocations, a Lanchester simulation model for predicting whether or not the stage targets are reached under the allocations, and a model for weapon effectiveness update from one stage to the next. These models interact with each other within the framework of a decision support system to help the user with allocation decisions as well as prediction of force requirements to win the battle.     

GIS-based optimization for the locations of sewage treatment plants and sewage outfalls – A case study of Nansha District in Guangzhou City,China

Based on GIS technology, eco-suitability evaluation method integrating economic, social and ecological factors is employed to optimize the locations of the sewage treatment plants and outfalls in this paper. The ecological indices considering eco-sensitivity areas as key elements of the integrated evaluation system are allotted to the water subsystem, riparian zone subsystem, and land subsystem. A novel integrated eco-suitability evaluation index system encompassing ten criteria and fifteen indices is established to generate the distributed eco-suitability map of the concerned areas and determine the possible locations of sewage treatment plants and sewage outfalls according to the eco-suitability levels. With the case study of Nansha District in Guangzhou City, China, 212 km² areas of land are found to be suitable for locating the sewage treatment plants, 87 km² areas of water suitable for sewage release, and 6 km² area of riparian zone unsuitable for sewage outfalls.     

Non-causal models in long term planning via set contractive optimal control methods

The notion of consistency for optimal plans introduced in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491] is studied in relation to dynamic programming and to multi-objective optimal control. It is demonstrated that the consistency condition for an optimal sequence of n policies for periods from 1 to n corresponding to a sequence of n economic agents’ decisions that together constitute an optimal plan for an agreed-upon social objective function is equivalent to a multi-objective problem with n+1 criteria. An optimal plan is consistent if and only if the corresponding (n+1)-criteria problem is balanced, and consistent optimal plans do exist in such economic situations. Otherwise, the consistency requirement generates the balance set and a set of Pareto solutions, and both can be computed as illustrated in the inflation–unemployment example extended for two periods with three objectives to optimize. The procedure of “consistent planning for the infinite horizon” considered in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491] is shown to concur with Bellman’s principle of optimality that may be invalid in many practical cases including the case considered in [F.E. Kydland, E.C. Prescott, Rules rather than decisions: The inconsistency of optimal plans, J. Polit. Econ. 85 (3) (1977) 473–491]. Finitely causal and non-causal models are introduced for long term planning in a multi-objective (Pareto) framework, and it is demonstrated how to deal with non-causal models using new set-contractive methods for multi-objective global optimization. The results are illustrated by examples.     

ON THE ECONOMICS OF BIOLOGICAL INVASION: AN APPLICATION TO RECREATIONAL FISHING

Abstract The paper demonstrates four general mechanisms that may affect economically valuable species when exposed to biological invasion. We distinguish between an ecological level effect and an ecological growth effect. In addition, we present an economic quantity effect working through demand. Finally, we suggest that there is an economic quality effect that reflects the possibility that invasions affect the harvesting agents directly through demand‐side forces. For example, this may occur because the state of the original species or the ecosystem is altered. We depart from the existing literature by revealing ecological and economic forces that explain why different agents may lack incentives to control invasions. The theoretical model is illustrated by the case where escaped farmed salmon (EFS) influence wild Atlantic salmon fisheries.     

阶层流动变化下的马尔科夫预测模型

针对总体内不同阶层随机流动的变化过程,分析了阶层结构的随机性质,利用马尔科夫方法建立了多次流动下阶层结构变化趋势的预测模型,并展示了模型应用的良好效果。研究结果为劳动力市场人才流动、城乡二元人口流动、社会经济阶层流动等问题的研究,提供了一种有效的思路和方法。     

The effect of information in separable Bayesian semi-Markov control models and its application to investment planning

We consider a separable Bayesian semi-Markov control model to describe economic decisions under uncertainty. Our main interest is to examine the influence of the possibility of learning on the economic decisions and on the total expected return in a multi-period framework. We make use of the concept of Blackwell-sufficiency and apply the results to multi-period investment planing under uncertainty.     

A modified vacation model M[x]/G/1 system

This paper studies the operating characteristics of an M^[x]/G/1 queueing system under a modified vacation policy, where the server leaves for a vacation as soon as the system is empty. The server takes at most J vacations repeatedly until at least one customer is found waiting in the queue when the server returns from a vacation. We derive the system size distribution at different points in time, as well as the waiting time distribution in the queue. Further, we derive some important characteristics including the expected length of the busy period and idle period. This shows that the results generalize those of the multiple vacation policy and the single vacation policy M^[x]/G/1 queueing system. Finally, a cost model is developed to determine the optimum of J at a minimum cost. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

垄断型企业实施质量追溯体系的决策研究——基于消费者对产品质量风险认知的不确定性

针对消费者对可追溯产品认知和企业实施质量追溯体系动力均不足的问题,建立数学模型分析了当消费者对产品质量风险认知不确定时,垄断型企业未实施与实施质量追溯体系的生产行为决策,包括产品价格,企业预期利润,比较了不同情况下消费者预期效用和社会预期福利,并进行了数值检验.得出垄断型企业在追溯成本满足相应条件时才会实施质量追溯体系,以及何种情况下企业预期利润,消费者预期效用和社会预期福利更高等主要结论和建议.     

Robust economic order quantity models

In this paper, we study the classical economic order quantity (EOQ) model under significant. In particular, the problem under consideration is the economic order quantity model with the input data of the demand rate, the order cost, and the holding cost rate being uncertain. A robustness approach based on scenario characterization of the input data is adopted to describe the uncertainties. The aim of the approach is to find an inventory policy that performs well under all realizable input data scenarios. An efficient linear time algorithm is devised to find the robust decisions. Analytical results are obtained for the case where input data are defined in continuous intervals. Comparisons on performances between the robust decisions and the stochastic optimization decisions are conducted. The results demonstrate the advantages of robustness approach.     

Expanding the additive reduct of a model of Peano arithmetic

Let M be a model of first order Peano arithmetic ( PA ) and I an initial segment of M that is closed under multiplication. LetM₀ be the {0, 1,+}‐reduct ofM. We show that there is another model N of PA that is also an expansion of M₀ such that a · ^M a = a · ^N a if and only if a ∈ I for all a ∈ M.     

基于ARIMA模型对海南省社会消费品零售总额的预测

对海南省社会消费品零售总额进行预测,对于了解海南省社会消费品零售总额的发展态势,为有关部门作出决策提供科学的依据,具有重大的现实经济意义.选取1999年到2014年的海南省社会消费品零售总额的数据来建立ARIMA(1,3,2)模型,2012年到2014年的实际值与预测值的相对误差5%以内,拟合效果良好,说明采用ARIMA模型预测海南省社会消费品零售总额是可行的,预测数据可靠.最后对海南省2015-2018年的社会消费品零售总额进行预测.     

The n‐order rogue waves of Fokas–Lenells equation

Considering certain terms of the next asymptotic order beyond the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, the Fokas–Lenells (FL) equation governed by the FL system arises as a model for nonlinear pulse propagation in optical fibers. The expressions of the q^[n] and r^[n] in the FL system are generated by the n‐fold Darboux transformation (DT), each element of the matrix is a 2 × 2 matrix, expressed by a ratio of (2n + 1) × (2n + 1) determinant and 2n × 2n determinant of eigenfunctions. Further, a Taylor series expansion about the n‐order breather solutions q^[n] generated using by DT and assuming periodic seed solutions under reduction can generate the n‐order rogue waves of the FL equation explicitly with 2n + 3 free parameters. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MULTISPECIES MODELING FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF HORSESHOE CRABS AND RED KNOTS IN THE DELAWARE BAY

Abstract Adaptive management requires that predictive models be explicit and transparent to improve decisions by comparing management actions, directing further research and monitoring, and facilitating learning. The rufa subspecies of red knots (Calidris canutus rufa), which has recently exhibited steep population declines, relies on horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) eggs as their primary food source during stopover in Delaware Bay during spring migration. We present a model with two different parameterizations for use in the adaptive management of horseshoe crab harvests in the Delaware Bay that links red knot mass gain, annual survival, and fecundity to horseshoe crab dynamics. The models reflect prevailing hypotheses regarding ecological links between these two species. When reported crab harvest from 1998 to 2008 was applied, projections corresponded to the observed red knot population abundances depending on strengths of the demographic relationship between these species. We compared different simulated horseshoe crab harvest strategies to evaluate whether, given this model, horseshoe crab harvest management can affect red knot conservation and found that restricting harvest can benefit red knot populations. Our model is the first to explicitly and quantitatively link these two species and will be used within an adaptive management framework to manage the Delaware Bay system and learn more about the specific nature of the linkage between the two species.