Risk management in power markets: The Hedging value of production flexibility

Since the 1990s power markets are being restructured worldwide and nowadays electrical power is traded as a commodity. The liberalization and with it the uncertainty in gas, fuel and electrical power prices requires an effective management of production facilities and financial contracts. Thereby derivatives build essential instruments to exchange volume as well as price risks. The challenge for participants in the newly competitive market environment is how to design, price and hedge derivative contracts in particular combination with the flexibility embedded in dispatch strategies of production assets. Accordingly, an adequate basis for management and investment decisions is needed which responds to the highly complex market situation.     

Stochastic second-order cone programming: Applications models

Second-order cone programs are a class of convex optimization problems. We refer to them as deterministic second-order cone programs (DSCOPs) since data defining them are deterministic. In DSOCPs we minimize a linear objective function over the intersection of an affine set and a product of second-order (Lorentz) cones. Stochastic programs have been studied since 1950s as a tool for handling uncertainty in data defining classes of optimization problems such as linear and quadratic programs. Stochastic second-order cone programs (SSOCPs) with recourse is a class of optimization problems that defined to handle uncertainty in data defining DSOCPs. In this paper we describe four application models leading to SSOCPs.     

Fast value iteration: an application of Legendre-Fenchel duality to a class of deterministic dynamic programming problems in discrete time*

ABSTRACT

We propose an algorithm, which we call ‘Fast Value Iteration’ (FVI), to compute the value function of a deterministic infinite-horizon dynamic programming problem in discrete time. FVI is an efficient algorithm applicable to a class of multidimensional dynamic programming problems with concave return (or convex cost) functions and linear constraints. In this algorithm, a sequence of functions is generated starting from the zero function by repeatedly applying a simple algebraic rule involving the Legendre-Fenchel transform of the return function. The resulting sequence is guaranteed to converge, and the Legendre-Fenchel transform of the limiting function coincides with the value function.     

Robust aspects of solutions in deterministic multiple objective linear programming

We study questions of robustness of linear multiple objective problems in the sense of post-optimal analysis, that is, we study conditions under which a given efficient solution remains efficient when the criteria/objective matrix undergoes some alterations. We consider addition or removal of certain criteria, convex combination with another criteria matrix, or small perturbations of its entries. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for robustness in a verifiable form and give two formulae to compute the radius of robustness.     

Stochastic utility-efficient programming of organic dairy farms

Opportunities to make sequential decisions and adjust activities as a season progresses and more information becomes available characterise the farm management process. In this paper, we present a discrete stochastic two-stage utility-efficient programming model of organic dairy farms, which includes risk aversion in the decision maker’s objective function as well as both embedded risk (stochastic programming with recourse) and non-embedded risk (stochastic programming without recourse). Historical farm accountancy data and subjective judgements were combined to assess the nature of the uncertainty that affects the possible consequences of the decisions. The programming model was used within a stochastic dominance framework to examine optimal strategies in organic dairy systems in Norway.     

Stochastic and deterministic simulations of a delayed genetic oscillation model: Investigating the validity of reductions

Quasi-stationary approximations are commonly used in order to simplify and reduce the number of equations of genetic circuit models. Protein/protein and protein/DNA binding reactions are considered to occur on much shorter time scale than protein production and degradation processes and often tacitly assumed at a quasi-equilibrium. Taking a biologically inspired, typical, small, abstract, negative feedback, genetic circuit model as study case, we investigate in this paper how different quasi-stationary approximations change the system behaviour both in deterministic and stochastic frameworks. We investigate the consistence between the deterministic and stochastic behaviours of our time-delayed negative feedback genetic circuit model with different implementations of quasi-stationary approximations. Quantitative and qualitative differences are observed among the various reduction schemes and with the underlying microscopic model, for biologically reasonable ranges and combinations of the microscopic model kinetic rates. The different reductions do not behave in the same way: correlations and amplitudes of the stochastic oscillations are not equally captured and the population behaviour is not always in consistence with the deterministic curves.     

Stochastic semidefinite programming: a new paradigm for stochastic optimization

Semidefinite programs are a class of optimization problems that have been studied extensively during the past 15 years. Semidefinite programs are naturally related to linear programs, and both are defined using deterministic data. Stochastic programs were introduced in the 1950s as a paradigm for dealing with uncertainty in data defining linear programs. In this paper, we introduce stochastic semidefinite programs as a paradigm for dealing with uncertainty in data defining semidefinite programs.The work of this author was supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Office under Grant DAAD 19-00-1-0465. The material in this paper is part of the doctoral dissertation of this author in preparation at Washington State University.     

Maximum principle,dynamic programming,and their connection in deterministic control

Two major tools for studying optimally controlled systems are Pontryagin's maximum principle and Bellman's dynamic programming, which involve the adjoint function, the Hamiltonian function, and the value function. The relationships among these functions are investigated in this work, in the case of deterministic, finite-dimensional systems, by employing the notions of superdifferential and subdifferential introduced by Crandall and Lions. Our results are essentially non-smooth versions of the classical ones. The connection between the maximum principle and the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation (in the viscosity sense) is thereby explained by virtue of the above relationship.This research was supported by the Natural Science Fund of China.This paper was written while the author visited Keio University, Japan. The author is indebted to Professors H. Tanaka and M. Nisio for their helpful suggestions and discussions. Thanks are also due to Professor X. J. Li for his comments and criticism.     

Optimal value function in semi-infinite programming

In this paper, we provide a systematic approach to the main topics in linear semi-infinite programming by means of a new methodology based on the many properties of the sub-differential mapping and the closure of a given convex function. In particular, we deal with the duality gap problem and its relation to the discrete approximation of the semi-infinite program. Moreover, we have made precise the conditions that allow us to eliminate the duality gap by introducing a perturbation in the primal objective function. As a by-product, we supply different extensions of well-known results concerning the subdifferential mapping.     

Optimal value functions in parametric programming

Optimal value functions in parametric programming are studied as compositions of objective functions and point-to-set mappings which define the constrained sets. Sufficiency conditions for the common regularity properties of optimal value functions are derived.

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Zusammenfassung Der Optimalwert eines parametrischen Programms wird aufgefaßt als Verknüpfung der Zielfunktion mit einer mengenwertigen Abbildung, die den zulässigen Bereich definiert. Es werden hinreichende Bedingungen für einige häufig benutzte Regularitätseigenschaften der Optimalwertfunktion hergeleitet.

     

Stochastic programming: Potential hazards when random variables reflect market interaction

There are two types of random phenomena modeled in stochastic programs. One type is what we may term “external” or “natural” random variables, such as temperature or the roll of a dice. But in many other cases, random variables are used to reflect the behavior of other market participants. This is the case for such as price and demand of a product. Using simple game theoretic models, we demonstrate that stochastic programming may not be appropriate in these cases, as there may be no feasible way to replace the decisions of others by a random variable, and arrive at the correct decision. Hence, this simple note is a warning against certain types of stochastic programming models. Stochastic programming is unproblematic in pure forms of monopoly and perfect competition, and also with respect to external random phenomena. But if market power is involved, such as in oligopolies, the modeling may not be appropriate.     

Robustness in deterministic multi-objective linear programming with respect to the relative interior and angle deviation

This paper deals with the robustness issue in deterministic multi-objective linear programming from two new standpoints. It is shown that a robustness notion recently reported in the literature is equivalent to strict efficiency. Corresponding to an efficient solution, a new quantity, robustness order (RO) is defined with respect to the interiority order of the cost matrix in the binding cone. A linear programming problem is provided to calculate the RO of a given efficient solution. The second part of the paper is devoted to investigating the robustness with respect to the eligible angle deviation of the cost matrix in the binding cone. Theoretical results are given to obtain the maximum eligible angle deviation. Finally, the relationship between two above-mentioned robustness standpoints is established. To have a better geometrical view, we prove the results for single-objective LP problems at first, and then we extend them to the multi-objective case. In addition to the theoretical results, some clarifying examples are given.     

Stochastic approximation and the final value theorem

The aim here is to show how to obtain many of the well-known limit results (i.e., central limit theorem, law of the iterated logarithm, invariance principle) of stochastic approximation (SA) by a shorter argument and under weaker conditions. The idea is to introduce an artificial sequence, related to the SA scheme, and which clearly obeys the limit law. This sequence is subtracted from the SA scheme and then simple deterministic limit theory is used to show the remainder is negligible. As a consequence of this approach proofs are shorter and the meaning of conditions becomes clearer. Because the difference equations are not summed up it is simple to state results for general a_n, c_n sequences.     

Optimal value range in interval linear programming

We deal with the linear programming problem in which input data can vary in some given real compact intervals. The aim is to compute the exact range of the optimal value function. We present a general approach to the situation the feasible set is described by an arbitrary linear interval system. Moreover, certain dependencies between the constraint matrix coefficients can be involved. As long as we are able to characterize the primal and dual solution set (the set of all possible primal and dual feasible solutions, respectively), the bounds of the objective function result from two nonlinear programming problems. We demonstrate our approach on various cases of the interval linear programming problem (with and without dependencies).     

Continuity of the optimal value function in indefinite quadratic programming

This paper characterizes the continuity property of the optimal value function in a general parametric quadratic programming problem with linear constraints. The lower semicontinuity and upper semicontinuity properties of the optimal value function are studied as well.     

Stochastic inventory system with lead time flexibility: offered by a manufacturer/transporter

This paper studies lead time flexibility in a two-stage continuous review supply chain in which the retailer uses the (R, Q) inventory system: when his inventory position reaches R, the retailer places orders with size Q to the manufacturer, who uses a transportation provider to deliver them with different lead time options. According to the contract, the manufacturer is able to expedite or postpone the delivery if the retailer makes such a request. Hence, the retailer has the flexibility to modify the lead time by using the most up-to-date demand information. The optimal lead time policy is found to be a threshold-type policy. The sensitivity analysis also shows that R is much more sensitive to the change of lead time than Q, and thus, the paper is primarily focused on finding optimal R. We also provide a cost approximation which yields unimodal cost in R. Furthermore, we analyze the order crossing problem and derive an upper bound for the probability of order crossing. Finally, we conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis to illustrate the effects of lead time flexibility on supply chain performance and discuss the managerial insights.     

Subgradients of value functions in parametric dynamic programming

We study in this paper the first-order behavior of value functions in parametric dynamic programming with linear constraints and nonconvex cost functions. By establishing an abstract result on the Fréchet subdifferential of value functions of parametric mathematical programming problems, some new formulas on the Fréchet subdifferential of value functions in parametric dynamic programming are obtained.     

On the dynamic programming inequalities associated with the deterministic optimal stopping problem in discrete and continuous time

We consider a discrete time version of the dynamic programming inequalities associated with the optimal stopping of a deterministic process. Their maximum solutions are shown to converge uniformly, as the discre tization step δt 0+,to the maximum solution of the continuous time formulation. A constructive proof of a result of J.L. Menaldi ([8]) on the existence of a Lipschitz solution of a 1st order variational inequality is also given.