Likelihood ratio tests of correlated multivariate samples

We develop methods to compare multiple multivariate normally distributed samples which may be correlated. The methods are new in the context that no assumption is made about the correlations among the samples. Three types of null hypotheses are considered: equality of mean vectors, homogeneity of covariance matrices, and equality of both mean vectors and covariance matrices. We demonstrate that the likelihood ratio test statistics have finite-sample distributions that are functions of two independent Wishart variables and dependent on the covariance matrix of the combined multiple populations. Asymptotic calculations show that the likelihood ratio test statistics converge in distribution to central Chi-squared distributions under the null hypotheses regardless of how the populations are correlated. Following these theoretical findings, we propose a resampling procedure for the implementation of the likelihood ratio tests in which no restrictive assumption is imposed on the structures of the covariance matrices. The empirical size and power of the test procedure are investigated for various sample sizes via simulations. Two examples are provided for illustration. The results show good performance of the methods in terms of test validity and power.     

Power of edge exclusion tests for graphical log-linear models

Asymptotic multivariate normal approximations to the joint distributions of edge exclusion test statistics for saturated graphical log-linear models, with all variables binary, are derived. Non-signed and signed square-root versions of the likelihood ratio, Wald and score test statistics are considered. Non-central chi-squared approximations are also considered for the non-signed versions of the test statistics. Simulation results are used to assess the quality of the proposed approximations. These approximations are used to estimate the overall power of edge exclusion tests. Power calculations are illustrated using data on university admissions.     

A novel trace test for the mean parameters in a multivariate growth curve model

A trace test for the mean parameters of the growth curve model is proposed. It is constructed using the restricted maximum likelihood followed by an estimated likelihood ratio approach. The statistic reduces to the Lawley-Hotelling trace test for the Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) models. Our test statistic is, therefore, a natural extension of the classical trace test to GMANOVA models. We show that the distribution of the test under the null hypothesis does not depend on the unknown covariance matrix Σ. We also show that the distributions under the null and alternative hypotheses can be represented as sums of weighted central and non-central chi-square random variables, respectively. Under the null hypothesis, the Satterthwaite approximation is used to get an approximate critical point. A novel Satterthwaite type approximation is proposed to obtain an approximate power. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of our proposed test and numerical examples are provided as illustrations.     

Near-exact distributions for the independence and sphericity likelihood ratio test statistics

In this paper we show how, based on a decomposition of the likelihood ratio test for sphericity into two independent tests and a suitably developed decomposition of the characteristic function of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test independence in a set of variates, we may obtain extremely well-fitting near-exact distributions for both test statistics. Since both test statistics have the distribution of the product of independent Beta random variables, it is possible to obtain near-exact distributions for both statistics in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions or mixtures of these distributions. For the independence test statistic, numerical studies and comparisons with asymptotic distributions proposed by other authors show the extremely high accuracy of the near-exact distributions developed as approximations to the exact distribution. Concerning the sphericity test statistic, comparisons with formerly developed near-exact distributions show the advantages of these new near-exact distributions.     

A likelihood ratio test for separability of covariances

We propose a formal test of separability of covariance models based on a likelihood ratio statistic. The test is developed in the context of multivariate repeated measures (for example, several variables measured at multiple times on many subjects), but can also apply to a replicated spatio-temporal process and to problems in meteorology, where horizontal and vertical covariances are often assumed to be separable. Separable models are a common way to model spatio-temporal covariances because of the computational benefits resulting from the joint space-time covariance being factored into the product of a covariance function that depends only on space and a covariance function that depends only on time. We show that when the null hypothesis of separability holds, the distribution of the test statistic does not depend on the type of separable model. Thus, it is possible to develop reference distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis. These distributions are used to evaluate the power of the test for certain nonseparable models. The test does not require second-order stationarity, isotropy, or specification of a covariance model. We apply the test to a multivariate repeated measures problem.     

Inference for the invariance of canonical analysis under linear transformations

Using a recent result about the invariance problem in linear canonical analysis (LCA), we introduce a criterion by means of which one can see if this invariance holds when the related random vectors are transformed by linear maps. Then, the estimation of this criterion is considered as well as the problem of testing for invariance of LCA. Particularly, a new test for additional information in canonical analysis is proposed and simulations are used to gain understanding of the finite sample performance of this test and to compare it with the likelihood ratio test.     

Diagnostic checking for multivariate regression models

Diagnostic checking for multivariate parametric models is investigated in this article. A nonparametric Monte Carlo Test (NMCT) procedure is proposed. This Monte Carlo approximation is easy to implement and can automatically make any test procedure scale-invariant even when the test statistic is not scale-invariant. With it we do not need plug-in estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix that is used to normalize test statistic and then the power performance can be enhanced. The consistency of NMCT approximation is proved. For comparison, we also extend the score type test to one-dimensional cases. NMCT can also be applied to diverse problems such as a classical problem for which we test whether or not certain covariables in linear model has significant impact for response. Although the Wilks lambda, a likelihood ratio test, is a proven powerful test, NMCT outperforms it especially in non-normal cases. Simulations are carried out and an application to a real data set is illustrated.     

The likelihood ratio test for homogeneity in bivariate normal mixtures

This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing homogeneity in a bivariate normal mixture model with known covariance. The asymptotic null distributions of the likelihood ratio statistic and a modified likelihood ratio statistic are obtained in explicit form. The distributions are identical. The results of a small simulation study to approximate the null distribution are presented.     

On the comparison of the pre-test and shrinkage phi-divergence test estimators for the symmetry model of categorical data

The estimation problem of the parameters in a symmetry model for categorical data has been considered for many authors in the statistical literature (for example, Bowker (1948) [1], Ireland et al. (1969) [2], Quade and Salama (1975) [3], Cressie and Read (1988) [4], Menéndez et al. (2005) [5]) without using uncertain prior information. It is well known that many new and interesting estimators, using uncertain prior information, have been studied by a host of researchers in different statistical models, and many papers have been published on this topic (see Saleh (2006) [9] and references therein). In this paper, we consider the symmetry model of categorical data and we study, for the first time, some new estimators when non-sample information about the symmetry of the probabilities is considered. The decision to use a “restricted” estimator or an “unrestricted” estimator is based on the outcome of a preliminary test, and then a shrinkage technique is used. It is interesting to note that we present a unified study in the sense that we consider not only the maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test or chi-square test statistic but we consider minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics. Families of minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics are wide classes of estimators and test statistics that contain as a particular case the maximum likelihood estimator, likelihood ratio test and chi-square test statistic. In an asymptotic set-up, the biases and the risk under the squared loss function for the proposed estimators are derived and compared. A numerical example clarifies the content of the paper.     

Monotonicity of the power functions of modified likelihood ratio criterion for the homogeneity of variances and of the sphericity test

The modified likelihood ratio criterion for testing the homogeneity of variances of p univariate normal populations, and the sphericity test, are both shown in this paper to have a monotone nondecreasing power function.     

Asymptotically efficient two-sample rank tests for modal directions on spheres

A general class of optimal and distribution-free rank tests for the two-sample modal directions problem on (hyper-) spheres is proposed, along with an asymptotic distribution theory for such spherical rank tests. The asymptotic optimality of the spherical rank tests in terms of power-equivalence to the spherical likelihood ratio tests is studied, while the spherical Wilcoxon rank test, an important case for the class of spherical rank tests, is further investigated. A data set is reanalyzed and some errors made in previous studies are corrected. On the usual sphere, a lower bound on the asymptotic Pitman relative efficiency relative to Hotelling’s T²-type test is established, and a new distribution for which the spherical Wilcoxon rank test is optimal is also introduced.     

Interpreting Kullback-Leibler divergence with the Neyman-Pearson lemma

Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Neyman-Pearson lemma are two fundamental concepts in statistics. Both are about likelihood ratios: Kullback-Leibler divergence is the expected log-likelihood ratio, and the Neyman-Pearson lemma is about error rates of likelihood ratio tests. Exploring this connection gives another statistical interpretation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence in terms of the loss of power of the likelihood ratio test when the wrong distribution is used for one of the hypotheses. In this interpretation, the standard non-negativity property of the Kullback-Leibler divergence is essentially a restatement of the optimal property of likelihood ratios established by the Neyman-Pearson lemma. The asymmetry of Kullback-Leibler divergence is overviewed in information geometry.     

Nonparametric tests for conditional independence in two-way contingency tables

Testing for the independence between two categorical variables R and S forming a contingency table is a well-known problem: the classical chi-square and likelihood ratio tests are used. Suppose now that for each individual a set of p characteristics is also observed. Those explanatory variables, likely to be associated with R and S, can play a major role in their possible association, and it can therefore be interesting to test the independence between R and S conditionally on them. In this paper, we propose two nonparametric tests which generalise the chi-square and the likelihood ratio ideas to this case. The procedure is based on a kernel estimator of the conditional probabilities. The asymptotic law of the proposed test statistics under the conditional independence hypothesis is derived; the finite sample behaviour of the procedure is analysed through some Monte Carlo experiments and the approach is illustrated with a real data example.     

Power comparisons of two-sided tests of equality of two covariance matrices based on six criteria

Power studies of tests of equality of covariance matrices of twop-variate normal populations Σ₁=Σ₂ against two-sided alternatives have been made based on the following six criteria: 1) Roy's largest root, 2) Hotelling's trace, 3) Pillai's trace, 4) Wilks' criterion, 5) Roy's largest-smallest roots and 6) modified likelihood ratio. A general theorem has been proved establishing the local unbiasedness conditions connecting the two critical values for tests 1) to 5). Extensive unbiased power tabulations have been made forp=2, for various values ofn ₁,n ₂, λ₁ and λ₂ wheren _i is the df of the SP matrix from theith sample and λ _i is theith latent root of Σ₁Σ ₂ ⁻¹ (i=1,2). Further, comparisons of powers of tests 1) to 5) have been made with those of the modified likelihood ratio after obtaining the exact distribution of the latter forn ₂=2n ₁ andp=2. Equal tail areas approach has also been used further to compute powers of tests 1) to 4) forp=2 for studying the bias. Again, a separate study has been made to compare the powers of the largest-smallest roots test with its three biased approximate approaches as well as the largest root. Since the largest root test was observed to have some advantage over the others, critical values were also obtained for this test in the unbiased as well as equal tail areas case forp=3. This research was supported by David Ross Grant from Purdue University. S. Sylvia Chu is now with Northwestern University.     

A high-dimensional test for the equality of the smallest eigenvalues of a covariance matrix

For the test of sphericity, Ledoit and Wolf [Ann. Statist. 30 (2002) 1081-1102] proposed a statistic which is robust against high dimensionality. In this paper, we consider a natural generalization of their statistic for the test that the smallest eigenvalues of a covariance matrix are equal. Some inequalities are obtained for sums of eigenvalues and sums of squared eigenvalues. These bounds permit us to obtain the asymptotic null distribution of our statistic, as the dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, by using distributional results obtained by Ledoit and Wolf [Ann. Statist. 30 (2002) 1081-1102]. Some empirical results comparing our test with the likelihood ratio test are also given.     

A unified approach to testing for and against a set of linear inequality constraints in the product multinomial setting

A problem that is frequently encountered in statistics concerns testing for equality of multiple probability vectors corresponding to independent multinomials against an alternative they are not equal. In applications where an assumption of some type of stochastic ordering is reasonable, it is desirable to test for equality against this more restrictive alternative. Similar problems have been considered heretofore using the likelihood ratio approach. This paper aims to generalize the existing results and provide a unified technique for testing for and against a set of linear inequality constraints placed upon on any probability vectors corresponding to r independent multinomials. The paper shows how to compute the maximum likelihood estimates under all hypotheses of interest and obtains the limiting distributions of the likelihood ratio test statistics. These limiting distributions are of chi bar square type and the expression of the weighting values is given. To illustrate our theoretical results, we use a real life data set to test against second-order stochastic ordering.     

Asymptotic normality of test statistics under alternative hypotheses

The aim of this paper is to present a framework for asymptotic analysis of likelihood ratio and minimum discrepancy test statistics. First order asymptotics are presented in a general framework under minimal regularity conditions and for not necessarily nested models. In particular, these asymptotics give sufficient and in a sense necessary conditions for asymptotic normality of test statistics under alternative hypotheses. Second order asymptotics, and their implications for bias corrections, are also discussed in a somewhat informal manner. As an example, asymptotics of test statistics in the analysis of covariance structures are discussed in detail.     

Some implications of the union-intersection principle for tests of sphericity

The sphericity hypothesis may be expressed as an intersection of simpler hypotheses on the invariant subspaces of the variance matrix. Applying the union-intersection principle to dissections of this type establishes a link between tests of independence and tests of sphericity. We use some recent results of Bloomfield and Watson [2] and Knott [4] to derive a class of union-intersection tests for sphericity from likelihood ratio tests of independence of two sets of variates. As well, we show that the ordinary likelihood ratio test for sphericity has a natural union-intersection interpretation.     

Optimal discriminant functions for normal populations

A class of discriminant rules which includes Fisher’s linear discriminant function and the likelihood ratio criterion is defined. Using asymptotic expansions of the distributions of the discriminant functions in this class, we derive a formula for cut-off points which satisfy some conditions on misclassification probabilities, and derive the optimal rules for some criteria. Some numerical experiments are carried out to examine the performance of the optimal rules for finite numbers of samples.     

The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for autoregressive time series with a regression trend

It is shown that the likelihood ratio of an autoregressive time series of finite order with a regression trend is asymptotically normal. This result is used to derive the power of a test for positive correlation of the residuals under local autoregressive alternatives. The test is based on the Durbin-Watson statistics.