Possibilistic linear-programming approach for supply chain networking decisions

Supply chain networking decisions are very important for the medium- and long-term planning success of manufacturing companies. The inputs to supply chain planning models are subject to environmental and system uncertainties. In this paper, a fuzzy set theory-based model is proposed to deal with those uncertainties. For this purpose, a possibilistic linear programming (PLP) model is used to make strategic resource-planning decisions using fuzzy demand forecasts and fuzzy yield rates as well as other inputs such as costs and capacities. The objective of the proposed PLP is to maximize the total profit of the enterprise. The model is applied to Mercedes–Benz Türk, one of the largest bus-manufacturing companies in the world, and conclusions and suggestions for further research are provided.     

Possibilistic nested logic programs and strong equivalence

In this paper, the class of possibilistic nested logic programs is introduced. These possibilistic logic programs allow us to use nested expressions in the bodies and heads of their rules. By considering a possibilistic nested logic program as a possibilistic theory, a construction of a possibilistic logic programing semantics based on answer sets for nested logic programs and the proof theory of possibilistic logic is defined. In order to define a general method for computing the possibilistic answer sets of a possibilistic nested program, the idea of equivalence between possibilistic nested programs is explored. By considering properties of equivalence between possibilistic programs, a process of transforming a possibilistic nested logic program into a possibilistic disjunctive logic program is defined. Given that our approach is an extension of answer set programming, we also explore the concept of strong equivalence between possibilistic nested logic programs. To this end, we introduce the concept of poss SE-models. Therefore, we show that two possibilistic nested logic programs are strong equivalents whenever they have the same poss SE-models.The expressiveness of the possibilistic nested logic programs is illustrated by a scenario from the medical domain. In particular, we exemplify how possibilistic nested logic programs are expressive enough for capturing medical guidelines which are pervaded by vagueness and qualitative information.     

Lukasiewicz-based merging possibilistic networks

Possibility theory provides a good framework for dealing with merging problems when information is pervaded with uncertainty and inconsistency. Many merging operators in possibility theory have been proposed. This paper develops a new approach to merging uncertain information modeled by possibilistic networks. In this approach we restrict our attention to show how a “triangular norm” establishes a lower bound on the degree to which an assessment is true when it is obtained by a set of initial hypothesis represented by a joint possibility distribution. This operator is characterized by its high effect of reinforcement. A strongly conjunctive operator is suitable to merge networks that are not involved in conflict, especially those supported by both sources. In this paper, the Lukasiewicz t-norm is first applied to a set of possibility measures to combine networks having the same and different graphical structures. We then present a method to merge possibilistic networks dealing with cycles.     

Heyting algebras with Boolean operators for rough sets and information retrieval applications

This paper presents an algebraic formalism for reasoning on finite increasing sequences over Boolean algebras in general and on generalizations of rough set concepts in particular. We argue that these generalizations are suitable for modeling relevance of documents in an information retrieval system.     

解带有等式约束的可能性线性规划问题

本文给出了等式约束与不等式约束的关系定理,解决了带等式约束的可能性线性规划问题。     

An optimization-based approach for the design of Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks model conditional dependencies among the domain variables, and provide a way to deduce their interrelationships as well as a method for the classification of new instances. One of the most challenging problems in using Bayesian networks, in the absence of a domain expert who can dictate the model, is inducing the structure of the network from a large, multivariate data set. We propose a new methodology for the design of the structure of a Bayesian network based on concepts of graph theory and nonlinear integer optimization techniques.     

A methodology for developing Bayesian networks: An application to information technology (IT) implementation

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic inference engines that support reasoning under uncertainty. This article presents a methodology for building an information technology (IT) implementation BN from client–server survey data. The article also demonstrates how to use the BN to predict the attainment of IT benefits, given specific implementation characteristics (e.g., application complexity) and activities (e.g., reengineering). The BN is an outcome of a machine learning process that finds the network’s structure and its associated parameters, which best fit the data. The article will be of interest to academicians who want to learn more about building BNs from real data and practitioners who are interested in IT implementation models that make probabilistic statements about certain implementation decisions.     

Inequalities for entropy-based measures of network information content

This paper presents a method for establishing relations between entropy-based measures applied to graphs. A special class of relations called implicit information inequalities or implicit entropy bounds is developed. A number of entropy-based measures of the structural information content of a graph have been developed over the past several decades, but little attention has been paid to relations among these measures. The research reported here aims to remedy this deficiency.     

以模糊数排序为基础的可能性线性规划分析——兼与文献[1]作者商榷

对文献 [1]提出的可能性线性规划的非模糊等价模型从模糊数排序分析的角度阐述并举证了该模型的非有效性。因而 ,以此为基础对原规划作出的变换被视为不良变换。为克服这一缺陷 ,提出相应的改正模型 ,并结合例题进行比较分析。     

Arc refractor methods for adaptive importance sampling on large Bayesian networks under evidential reasoning

Approximate Bayesian inference by importance sampling derives probabilistic statements from a Bayesian network, an essential part of evidential reasoning with the network and an important aspect of many Bayesian methods. A critical problem in importance sampling on Bayesian networks is the selection of a good importance function to sample a network’s prior and posterior probability distribution. The initially optimal importance functions eventually start deviating from the optimal function when sampling a network’s posterior distribution given evidence, even when adaptive methods are used that adjust an importance function to the evidence by learning. In this article we propose a new family of Refractor Importance Sampling (RIS) algorithms for adaptive importance sampling under evidential reasoning. RIS applies “arc refractors” to a Bayesian network by adding new arcs and refining the conditional probability tables. The goal of RIS is to optimize the importance function for the posterior distribution and reduce the error variance of sampling. Our experimental results show a significant improvement of RIS over state-of-the-art adaptive importance sampling algorithms.     

Learning temporal nodes Bayesian networks

Temporal Nodes Bayesian Networks (TNBNs) are an alternative to Dynamic Bayesian Networks for temporal reasoning with much simpler and efficient models in some domains. TNBNs are composed of temporal nodes, temporal intervals, and probabilistic dependencies. However, methods for learning this type of models from data have not yet been developed. In this paper, we propose a learning algorithm to obtain the structure and temporal intervals for TNBNs from data. The method consists of three phases: (i) obtain an initial approximation of the intervals, (ii) obtain a structure using a standard algorithm and (iii) refine the intervals for each temporal node based on a clustering algorithm. We evaluated the method with synthetic data from three different TNBNs of different sizes. Our method obtains the best score using a combined measure of interval quality and prediction accuracy, and a competitive structural quality with lower running times, compared to other related algorithms. We also present a real world application of the algorithm with data obtained from a combined cycle power plant in order to diagnose temporal faults.     

Gated Bayesian networks for algorithmic trading

This paper introduces a new probabilistic graphical model called gated Bayesian network (GBN). This model evolved from the need to represent processes that include several distinct phases. In essence, a GBN is a model that combines several Bayesian networks (BNs) in such a manner that they may be active or inactive during queries to the model. We use objects called gates to combine BNs, and to activate and deactivate them when predefined logical statements are satisfied. In this paper we also present an algorithm for semi-automatic learning of GBNs. We use the algorithm to learn GBNs that output buy and sell decisions for use in algorithmic trading systems. We show how the learnt GBNs can substantially lower risk towards invested capital, while they at the same time generate similar or better rewards, compared to the benchmark investment strategy buy-and-hold. We also explore some differences and similarities between GBNs and other related formalisms.     

Extended Shenoy-Shafer architecture for inference in hybrid bayesian networks with deterministic conditionals

The main goal of this paper is to describe an architecture for solving large general hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs) with deterministic conditionals for continuous variables using local computation. In the presence of deterministic conditionals for continuous variables, we have to deal with the non-existence of the joint density function for the continuous variables. We represent deterministic conditional distributions for continuous variables using Dirac delta functions. Using the properties of Dirac delta functions, we can deal with a large class of deterministic functions. The architecture we develop is an extension of the Shenoy-Shafer architecture for discrete BNs. We extend the definitions of potentials to include conditional probability density functions and deterministic conditionals for continuous variables. We keep track of the units of continuous potentials. Inference in hybrid BNs is then done in the same way as in discrete BNs but by using discrete and continuous potentials and the extended definitions of combination and marginalization. We describe several small examples to illustrate our architecture. In addition, we solve exactly an extended version of the crop problem that includes non-conditional linear Gaussian distributions and non-linear deterministic functions.     

Entropy as an assessment tool of supply chain information sharing

As the order fulfillment process needs to be managed in a seamless way, the level of information sharing among the partners of the supply chain needs to be increased. An entropy-based formulation is proposed as the basis of a methodology for comparing different information sharing approaches in a supply chain environment. A step-by-step comparison of two different information sharing approaches is presented to exemplify the use of the methodology. A computer simulation is used to validate the usefulness of the proposed methodology.     

Learning Bayesian networks from datasets joining continuous and discrete variables

The current paper addresses two problems observed in structure learning applications to computational biology.The first one is dealing with mixed data. Most optimization criteria for learning algorithms are applicable to either discrete or continuous data. Mixed datasets are usually handled by discretization of continuous data, which often leads to the loss of information. In order to address this problem, we adapted discrete scoring functions to continuous data. Consequently, the same score is used to both types of variables, and the network structure may be learned from mixed data directly.The second problem is the control of the type I error level. Usually, learning algorithms output a network that is the best according to some optimization criteria, but the reliability of particular relationships represented by this network is unknown. We address this problem by allowing the user to specify the expected error level and adjusting the parameters of the scoring criteria to this level.     

Lanczos and the Riemannian SVD in information retrieval applications

Variations of the latent semantic indexing (LSI) method in information retrieval (IR) require the computation of singular subspaces associated with the k dominant singular values of a large m × n sparse matrix A, where k?min(m,n). The Riemannian SVD was recently generalized to low‐rank matrices arising in IR and shown to be an effective approach for formulating an enhanced semantic model that captures the latent term‐document structure of the data. However, in terms of storage and computation requirements, its implementation can be much improved for large‐scale applications. We discuss an efficient and reliable algorithm, called SPK‐RSVD‐LSI, as an alternative approach for deriving the enhanced semantic model. The algorithm combines the generalized Riemannian SVD and the Lanczos method with full reorthogonalization and explicit restart strategies. We demonstrate that our approach performs as well as the original low‐rank Riemannian SVD method by comparing their retrieval performance on a well‐known benchmark document collection. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.