A Kalman filter as a minimax estimator

A minimax terminal state estimation problem is posed for a linear plant and a generalized quadratic loss function. Sufficient conditions are developed to insure that a Kalman filter will provide a minimax estimate for the terminal state of the plant. It is further shown that this Kalman filter will not generally be a minimax estimate for the terminal state if the observation interval is arbitrarily long. Consequently, a subminimax estimate is defined, subject to a particular existence condition. This subminimax estimate is related to the Kalman filter, and it may provide a useful estimate for the terminal state when the performance of the Kalman filter is no longer satisfactory.     

A Skewed and Heavy-Tailed Latent Random Field Model for Spatial Extremes

This article develops Bayesian inference of spatial models with a flexible skew latent structure. Using the multivariate skew-normal distribution of Sahu et al., a valid random field model with stochastic skewing structure is proposed to take into account non-Gaussian features. The skewed spatial model is further improved via scale mixing to accommodate more extreme observations. Finally, the skewed and heavy-tailed random field model is used to describe the parameters of extreme value distributions. Bayesian prediction is done with a well-known Gibbs sampling algorithm, including slice sampling and adaptive simulation techniques. The model performance—as far as the identifiability of the parameters is concerned—is assessed by a simulation study and an analysis of extreme wind speeds across Iran. We conclude that our model provides more satisfactory results according to Bayesian model selection and predictive-based criteria. R code to implement the methods used is available as online supplementary material.     

Credibility theory and the Kalman filter

Following Mehra (1975) we indicate how some of the well known credibility models may be formulated as Kalman filters. The formulation yields recursive premium forecasts including recursive predictions errors which are of importance to practitioners.     

Joint modelling of location and scale parameters of the skew-normal distribution

Joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution provide useful ex- tension for joint mean and variance models of the normal distribution when the data set under consideration involves asymmetric outcomes. This paper focuses on the maximum likelihood estimation of joint location and scale models of the skew-normal distribution. The proposed procedure can simultaneously estimate parameters in the location model and the scale model. Simulation studies and a real example are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Unscented Kalman filter for time varying spectral analysis of earthquake ground motions

A novel parametric time-domain method for time varying spectral analysis of earthquake ground motions is presented. Based upon time varying autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling of earthquake ground motion, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to estimate the time varying ARMA coefficients. Then, time varying spectrum is yielded according to the time varying ARMA coefficients. Analysis of the ground motion record El Centro (1940, N–S) shows that compared to Kalman filter (KF) based method, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and wavelet transform (WT), UKF based method can more reasonably represent the distribution of the seismic energy in time–frequency plane, which ensures its better ability to track the local properties of earthquake ground motions and to identify the systems with nonlinearity. Analysis of the seismic response of a building during the 1994 Northridge earthquake shows that UKF based method can be potentially a useful tool for structural damage detection and health monitoring. Lastly, it is found that the theoretical frequency resolving power of ARMA models usually neglected in some studies has considerable effect on time varying spectrum and it is one of the key factors for ARMA modeling of earthquake ground motion.     

偏正态数据下众数回归模型的统计诊断

为了更好地拟合偏态数据,充分提取偏态数据的信息,针对偏正态数据建立了众数回归模型,并基于Pena距离统计量对众数回归模型进行统计断研究,得到了众数回归模型的Pena距离表达式以及高杠杆异常点的诊断方法.利用EM算法与梯度下降法给出了众数回归模型参数的极大似然估计,根据数据删除模型计算似然距离、Cook距离和Pena距离统计量,绘制诊断统计图.通过Monte Carlo模拟试验和实例分析比较,说明文章提出的方法行之有效,并在一定条件下Pena距离对异常点或强影响点的诊断优于似然距离和Cook距离.     

Stability of optimal filter higher-order derivatives

In many scenarios, a state-space model depends on a parameter which needs to be inferred from data. Using stochastic gradient search and the optimal filter first-order derivatives, the parameter can be estimated online. To analyze the asymptotic behavior of such methods, it is necessary to establish results on the existence and stability of the optimal filter higher-order derivatives. These properties are studied here. Under regularity conditions, we show that the optimal filter higher-order derivatives exist and forget initial conditions exponentially fast. We also show that the same derivatives are geometrically ergodic.     

A Kalman particle filter for online parameter estimation with applications to affine models

Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes - In this paper we address the problem of estimating the posterior distribution of the static parameters of a continuous-time state space model with...     

封闭型保单组未来损失现值向量的联合分布及渐近分布

本文针对封闭型保单组,利用历年死亡人数随机向量D,将保单组的未来给付现值随机变量和未来损失现值随机变量表达为某个满秩矩阵和D的乘积,根据D服从多项分布的性质,得到未来损失现值随机向量渐近服从多元正态分布的结果,为分析责任准备金提供了一个新的框架.     

On use of the Kalman filter for spatial smoothing

A state-space model to perform discrete thin plate smoothing for data on a two-dimensional rectangular lattice is proposed with the use of the Kalman filter. The use of the Kalman filter reduces computational difficulties in the maximum likelihood estimation of a smoothing parameter. A procedure to reduce computational difficulties in the estimation of trend is given also. Numerical illustration is provided using two sets of artificial data.     

A NARMAX model-based state-space self-tuning control for nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems

A novel state-space self-tuning control methodology for a nonlinear stochastic hybrid system with stochastic noise/disturbances is proposed in this paper. via the optimal linearization approach, an adjustable NARMAX-based noise model with estimated states can be constructed for the state-space self-tuning control in nonlinear continuous-time stochastic systems. Then, a corresponding adaptive digital control scheme is proposed for continuous-time multivariable nonlinear stochastic systems, which have unknown system parameters, measurement noise/external disturbances, and inaccessible system states. The proposed method enables the development of a digitally implementable advanced control algorithm for nonlinear stochastic hybrid systems.     

基于偏正态分布联合位置、尺度与偏度模型的极大似然估计

本文提出了基于偏正态分布联合位置、尺度与偏度模型,通过极大似然迭代算法给出了联合模型参数的估计方法,最后通过随机模拟和实例研究说明了提出的模型与方法的有效性。     

Restricted Kalman filter applied to dynamic style analysis of actuarial funds

We use dynamic style analysis to unveil the strategies followed by Brazilian actuarial funds from January 2004 to August 2008 and investigate whether managers’ decisions were compatible with the intention of protecting the investor against the negative effects of inflation. The main goal of this paper is to show that this methodology is suitable for allowing insurance companies to increase their capacity to monitor the behavior of portfolios and to control the amount of risk they assume. The basic steps of the method are to build and/or choose market indexes capable of characterizing the returns of the main securities available and to apply restricted linear state space models estimated with a Kalman filter with exact initialization. The main conclusions of this paper are the following: (1) the use of exact initialization of the Kalman filter promotes numerical stability; (2) there is no need to consider the entire set of market indicators because a subset containing only three indexes spans the relevant space of investment opportunities; and (3) the actuarial funds’ resources were primarily invested in inflation‐indexed bonds, but fund managers also left room to adjust their exposure to other assets not directly related to the objective of providing protection against inflation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pattern recognition based Kalman filter for indoor localization using TDOA algorithm

In this paper, we will present a motion pattern recognition based Kalman filter (PRKF), and apply it to the time difference of arrival (TDOA) algorithm of indoor localization. The state matrix in Kalman filter (KF) is determined by the motion pattern which the target node is supposed to act, and this will bring new system error if the assumption is not correct. Considering this, we first create three fuzzy sets using three KFs whose state matrix stand for different motion patterns, then linearly combined the memberships of a target node of the fuzzy sets. Finally, simulation results show that the PRKF can enhance the localization accuracy about more than 20%.     

Energy futures prices: term structure models with Kalman filter estimation

We present a class of multi-factor stochastic models for energy futures prices, similar to the interest rate futures models recently formulated by Heath. We do not postulate directly the risk-neutral processes followed by futures prices, but define energy futures prices in terms of a spot price, not directly observable, driven by several stochastic factors. Our formulation leads to an expression for futures prices which is well suited to the application of Kalman filtering techniques together with maximum likelihood estimation methods. Based on these techniques, we perform an empirical study of a one- and a two-factor model for futures prices for natural gas.     

A chaotic secure communication scheme using fractional chaotic systems based on an extended fractional Kalman filter

In recent years chaotic secure communication and chaos synchronization have received ever increasing attention. In this paper, for the first time, a fractional chaotic communication method using an extended fractional Kalman filter is presented. The chaotic synchronization is implemented by the EFKF design in the presence of channel additive noise and processing noise. Encoding chaotic communication achieves a satisfactory, typical secure communication scheme. In the proposed system, security is enhanced based on spreading the signal in frequency and encrypting it in time domain. In this paper, the main advantages of using fractional order systems, increasing nonlinearity and spreading the power spectrum are highlighted. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, a numerical example based on the fractional Lorenz dynamical system is presented and the results are compared to the integer Lorenz system.     

Estimation of high-dimensional prior and posterior covariance matrices in Kalman filter variants

This work studies the effects of sampling variability in Monte Carlo-based methods to estimate very high-dimensional systems. Recent focus in the geosciences has been on representing the atmospheric state using a probability density function, and, for extremely high-dimensional systems, various sample-based Kalman filter techniques have been developed to address the problem of real-time assimilation of system information and observations. As the employed sample sizes are typically several orders of magnitude smaller than the system dimension, such sampling techniques inevitably induce considerable variability into the state estimate, primarily through prior and posterior sample covariance matrices. In this article, we quantify this variability with mean squared error measures for two Monte Carlo-based Kalman filter variants: the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble square-root Kalman filter. Expressions of the error measures are derived under weak assumptions and show that sample sizes need to grow proportionally to the square of the system dimension for bounded error growth. To reduce necessary ensemble size requirements and to address rank-deficient sample covariances, covariance-shrinking (tapering) based on the Schur product of the prior sample covariance and a positive definite function is demonstrated to be a simple, computationally feasible, and very effective technique. Rules for obtaining optimal taper functions for both stationary as well as non-stationary covariances are given, and optimal taper lengths are given in terms of the ensemble size and practical range of the forecast covariance. Results are also presented for optimal covariance inflation. The theory is verified and illustrated with extensive simulations.