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从随机环境中分枝过程是随机环境中马氏链入手, 讨论了随机环境中分枝过程状态的暂留性、常返性以及灭绝概率的性质.     

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??This paper studies the price of convertible bonds with counterparty credit risk in a reduced-form model. We suppose that the default intensity process and the interest rate process follow the Vasicek model, and derive the price expression of convertible bonds using the method of measure changes. Moreover, we make some numerical analysis on the explicit formulae to demonstrate the sensitivity of a convertible bond price to changes in the parameters of the model.     

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??For \rho-mixing samples, we discuss thestrong consistency of the nonparametric kernel regression estimator proposed by Gasser and Muller. Under more weaker conditions, its strong consistency and uniformly strong consistency are proved.     

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In this paper, we consider the estimation problemfor partially linear models with additive measurement errors in thenonparametric part. Two kinds of estimators are proposed. The first oneis an integral moment-based estimator with deconvolution kernel techniques,associated with the strong consistency for the estimator. Another oneis a simulation-based estimator to avoid the integrals involved in theintegral moment-based estimator. Simulation studies are conducted toexamine the performance of the proposed estimators.     

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Solar cell is the basic component of satellite photovoltaic panels with complicated redundant system structure. Its reliability plays an important role in the system, and its performance shows a degradation trend over time. In this paper, study is conducted for the solar cell degradation modeling and reliability analysis basedon practical testing results. Specifically, we illustrate an accelerated test for the attenuation ratio character test under different accumulativeirradiation levels, focusing on the heteroscedasticity of the collected testing data. A heteroscedastic linear model is proposed, and the lifedistribution of the photovoltaic panel is obtained by using Fiducial method. A numerical example is shown for the purpose of illustration.     

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For a financial or insurance entity, the problem of finding the optimal dividend distribution strategy and optimal firm value function is a widely discussed topic. In the present paper, it is assumed that the firm faces two types of liquidity risks: a Brownian risk and a Poisson risk. The firm can control the time and amount of dividends paid out to shareholders. By sufficiently taking into account the safety of the company, bankruptcy is said to take place at time $t$ if the cash reserve of the firm runs below the linear barrier b+kt (not zero), see 1. We deal with the problem of maximizing the expected total discounted dividends paid out until bankruptcy. The optimal dividend return (or, firm value) function is identified as the classical solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation where a second-order differential-integro equation is involved. By solving the corresponding HJB equation, the analytical solution of the optimal firm value function is obtained, the optimal dividend strategy is also characterized, which is of linear barrier type: at time t the firm keeps cash inside when the cash reserves level is less than a critical linear barrier and pays cash in excess of this linear barrier as dividends.     

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??This paper considers the expected penalty functions for a discrete semi-Markov risk model, which includes several existing risk models such as the compound binomial model (with time-correlated claims) and the compound Markov binomial model (with time-correlated claims) as special cases. Recursive formulae and the initial values for the discounted free penalty functions are derived in the two-state model by an easy method. We also give some applications of our results.     

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??Examining the conditions of positively or negatively associated sequences of random variables obeying the strong law of large numbers provided by Alexander, the sequences of Gaussian random variables, nonnegative and uniformly bounded sequences of random variables with general dependent structure were studied, and the sufficient conditions for they obeying the strong law of large numbers were given. At last, an example for Gaussian sequence satisfying the strong law of large numbers was given.     

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In this note we discuss uniform integrability of random variables. In a probability space, we introduce two new notions on uniform integrability of random variables, and prove that they are equivalent to the classic one. In a sublinear expectation space, we give de La Vall\'{e}e Poussin criterion for the uniform integrability of random variables and do some other discussions.     

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In this paper, we will prove another Borel-Cantelli lemma for capacities induced by sublinear expectations.     

THE ERGODICITY FOR BI-IMMIGRATION BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

The concepts of bi-immigration birth and death density matrix in random environment and bi-immigration birth and death process in random environment are introduced. For any bi-immigration birth and death matrix in random environment Q（θ） with birth rate λ 〈 death rate μ, the following results are proved, （1） there is an unique q-process in random environment, P^-（θ＊（0）;t） = （p^-（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j）,i,j ≥ 0）, which is ergodic, that is, lim t→∞（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j） = π^-（θ^＊（0）;j） ≥0 does not depend on i ≥ 0 and ∑j≥0π （θ＊（0）;j） = 1, （2） there is a bi-immigration birth and death process in random enjvironment （X^＊ = {X^＊,t ≥ 0},ε^＊ = {εt,t ∈ （-∞, ∞）}） with random transition matrix P^-（θ^＊ （0）;t） such that X^＊ is a strictly stationary process.     

生物种群在污染环境中的生灭过程

建立了生物种群在污染环境中的一个线性生灭过程模型.利用马尔可夫过程的理论和方法,得到生物种群数量变化的概率分布,最后讨论了各模型参数的变化对生物种群生存的影响.     

右半直线上依分布收敛的独立随机环境中的生灭过程的常返性

讨论了一类独立随机环境中的生灭过程的常返性.在假定环境满足一定的条件下证明一个强大数定律,并应用此大数定律给出了该生灭过程的常返和非常返的判别准则.     

Law of Large Numbers for Random Walk with Unbounded Jumps and Birth and Death Process with Bounded Jumps in Random Environment

We study a random walk with unbounded jumps in random environment. The environment is stationary and ergodic, uniformly elliptic and decays polynomially with speed \(Dj^{-(3+\varepsilon _0)}\) for some \(D>0\) and small \(\varepsilon _0>0.\) We prove a law of large numbers under the condition that the annealed mean of the hitting time of the lattice of the positive half line is finite. As the second part, we consider a birth and death process with bounded jumps in stationary and ergodic environment whose skeleton process is a random walk with unbounded jumps in random environment. Under a uniform ellipticity condition, we prove a law of large numbers and give the explicit formula of its velocity.     

生灭型半马氏骨架过程

本文首先引进了生灭型半马氏骨架过程的定义,求出了两骨架时跳跃点τn-1(ω)与τn(ω)之间的嵌入过程X(n)(t,ω)的初始分布及寿命分布.得到了生灭型半马氏骨架过程的一维分布.其次引进了生灭型半马氏骨架过程的数字特征并讨论了它们的概率意义及相互关系.讨论了生灭型半马氏骨架过程的向上和向下的积分型随机泛函.最后讨论了它的遍历性及平稳分布,求出了平均首达时间及平均返回时间.得到了常返和正常返的充分必要条件,求出了在正常返的条件下的平稳分布.     

生灭过程的Ito游程理论

当生灭过程不唯一,且附加的虚状态∞是"瞬时"且正则时,其轨道结构是异常复杂的.主要工作是利用Ito的游程理论来分析处理这种生灭过程,研究其轨道性质,并最终得到预解式.此预解式具有清楚的概率意义,能够直观地反映生灭过程的轨道结构.     

随机环境中受控分枝过程的极限定理

讨论了随机环境中受控分枝过程{Z_n:n∈N}的极限问题.给出了过程在{S_n:n∈N}下的规范化过程{W_n:n∈N}几乎处处收敛、L~1收敛和L~2收敛的充分条件,以及过程{W:n∈N}的极限非退化于0的充分条件和必要条件,得到了过程在{I_n:n∈N}下的规范化过程{W_n:n∈N}几乎处处收敛和L~1收敛的充分条件.     

随机环境下上临界分值过程的偏差不等式

令$\{Z_{n}, n\ge 0\}$为独立同分布随机环境下的上临界分支过程$\xi=(\xi_n)_{n\geq 0}$.本文给出了$\ln (Z_{n+n_{0}}/Z_{n_{0}})$的一些偏差不等式及其在构造置信区间上的一些应用.     

随机环境中迁入分枝过程的极限性质

在方差和均值有限的条件下,得到了随机环境中迁入分枝过程对应的规范化过程的几乎处处收敛性和L^2收敛性．这对于刻画过程本身的发散速度,具有重要的意义．     

带壁生灭过程的定性理论

研究带壁生灭过程(BDP)的定性理论.按照壁0的分类,边界点Z的分类,BDP是否诚实,是否满足向后或向前方程组,存在许多组合类型的BDP.对于每一种类型的BDP,或者没有,或者仅一个,或者有无穷多个.列出了一个详细的表.