Sequential monitoring of a Bernoulli sequence when the pre-change parameter is unknown

The task of monitoring for a change in the mean of a sequence of Bernoulli random variables has been widely studied. However most existing approaches make at least one of the following assumptions, which may be violated in many real-world situations: (1) the pre-change value of the Bernoulli parameter is known in advance, (2) computational efficiency is not paramount, and (3) enough observations occur between change points to allow asymptotic approximations to be used. We develop a novel change detection method based on Fisher’s exact test which does not make any of these assumptions. We show that our method can be implemented in a computationally efficient manner, and is hence suited to sequential monitoring where new observations are constantly being received over time. We assess our method’s performance empirically via using simulated data, and find that it is comparable to the optimal CUSUM scheme which assumes both pre- and post-change values of the parameter to be known.     

State-of-the-Art in Sequential Change-Point Detection

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying optimization problem, namely, Bayesian, generalized Bayesian, and minimax. We pay particular attention to the latest advances in each. Also, we link together the generalized Bayesian problem with multi-cyclic disorder detection in a stationary regime when the change occurs at a distant time horizon. We conclude with two case studies to illustrate the cutting edge of the field at work.     

线性回归模型中方差变点的连续监测

The paper investigates the sequential observations’ variance change in linear regression model. The procedure is based on a detection function constructed by residual squares of CUSUM and a boundary function which is designed so that the test has a small probability of false alarm and asymptotic power one. Simulation results show our monitoring procedure performs well when variance change occurs shortly after the monitoring time. The method is still feasible for regression coefficients change or both variance and regression coefficients change problem.     

Detecting change in a random sequence

We propose a sequential procedure for detecting a possible changepoint in a random sequence of observations so that we can fix the probabilty of stopping at any level if there is no change, while otherwise we will stop with probabilty one in a specified length of time.     

Asymptotically Optimal Quickest Change Detection in Multistream Data—Part 1: General Stochastic Models

Assume that there are multiple data streams (channels, sensors) and in each stream the process of interest produces generally dependent and non-identically distributed observations. When the process is in a normal mode (in-control), the (pre-change) distribution is known, but when the process becomes abnormal there is a parametric uncertainty, i.e., the post-change (out-of-control) distribution is known only partially up to a parameter. Both the change point and the post-change parameter are unknown. Moreover, the change affects an unknown subset of streams, so that the number of affected streams and their location are unknown in advance. A good changepoint detection procedure should detect the change as soon as possible after its occurrence while controlling for a risk of false alarms. We consider a Bayesian setup with a given prior distribution of the change point and propose two sequential mixture-based change detection rules, one mixes a Shiryaev-type statistic over both the unknown subset of affected streams and the unknown post-change parameter and another mixes a Shiryaev–Roberts-type statistic. These rules generalize the mixture detection procedures studied by Tartakovsky (IEEE Trans Inf Theory 65(3):1413–1429, 2019) in a single-stream case. We provide sufficient conditions under which the proposed multistream change detection procedures are first-order asymptotically optimal with respect to moments of the delay to detection as the probability of false alarm approaches zero.

     

Asymptotically optimal pointwise and minimax quickest change-point detection for dependent data

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem in pointwise and minimax settings for general dependent data models. Two new classes of sequential detection procedures associated with the maximal “local” probability of a false alarm within a period of some fixed length are introduced. For these classes of detection procedures, we consider two popular risks: the expected positive part of the delay to detection and the conditional delay to detection. Under very general conditions for the observations, we show that the popular Shiryaev–Roberts procedure is asymptotically optimal, as the local probability of false alarm goes to zero, with respect to both these risks pointwise (uniformly for every possible point of change) and in the minimax sense (with respect to maximal over point of change expected detection delays). The conditions are formulated in terms of the rate of convergence in the strong law of large numbers for the log-likelihood ratios between the “change” and “no-change” hypotheses, specifically as a uniform complete convergence of the normalized log-likelihood ratio to a positive and finite number. We also develop tools and a set of sufficient conditions for verification of the uniform complete convergence for a large class of Markov processes. These tools are based on concentration inequalities for functions of Markov processes and the Meyn–Tweedie geometric ergodic theory. Finally, we check these sufficient conditions for a number of challenging examples (time series) frequently arising in applications, such as autoregression, autoregressive GARCH, etc.     

Optimal online detection of parameter changes in two linear models

Shiryaev has obtained the optimal sequential rule for detecting the instant of a distributional change in an independent sequence using the theory of optimal stopping of Markov processes. This paper considers the problem of sequential detection of certain parameter changes in two dependent sequences: an autoregressive process, and a regression model with serially correlated error terms. It is shown that the rule that is optimal in the sense of minimizing the expected positive delay is the one which declares a change to have occured as soon as the posterior probability of a change crosses a threshold. This rule also permits control of the probability of a false-declaration of change, just as in the independent sequence case.     

Optimal Control of a Ship for Course Change and Sidestep Maneuvers

We consider a ship subject to kinematic, dynamic, and moment equations and steered via rudder under the assumptions that the rudder angle and rudder angle time rate are subject to upper and lower bounds. We formulate and solve four Mayer problems of optimal control, the optimization criterion being the minimum time.Problems P1 and P2 deal with course change maneuvers. In Problem P1, a ship initially in quasi-steady state must reach the final point with a given yaw angle and zero yaw angle time rate. Problem P2 differs from Problem P1 in that the additional requirement of quasi-steady state is imposed at the final point.Problems P3 and P4 deal with sidestep maneuvers. In Problem P3, a ship initially in quasi-steady state must reach the final point with a given lateral distance, zero yaw angle, and zero yaw angle time rate. Problem P4 differs from Problem P3 in that the additional requirement of quasi-steady state is imposed at the final point.The above Mayer problems are solved via the sequential gradient-restoration algorithm in conjunction with a new singularity avoiding transformation which accounts automatically for the bounds on rudder angle and rudder angle time rate.The optimal control histories involve multiple subarcs along which either the rudder angle is kept at one of the extreme positions or the rudder angle time rate is held at one of the extreme values. In problems where quasi-steady state is imposed at the final point, there is a higher number of subarcs than in problems where quasi-steady state is not imposed; the higher number of subarcs is due to the additional requirement that the lateral velocity and rudder angle vanish at the final point.     

Nonparametric inference of gradual changes in the jump behaviour of time-continuous processes

In applications the properties of a stochastic feature often change gradually rather than abruptly, that is: after a constant phase for some time they slowly start to vary. In this paper we discuss statistical inference for the detection and the localization of gradual changes in the jump characteristic of a discretely observed Ito semimartingale. We propose a new measure of time variation for the jump behaviour of the process. The statistical uncertainty of a corresponding estimate is analysed by deriving new results on the weak convergence of a sequential empirical tail integral process and a corresponding multiplier bootstrap procedure.     

Early screening of ovarian cancer

The mortality of ovarian cancer is higher than any other female genital malignant tumors, while there exists a strong correlation between early-stage detection and cure for it. CA125 and HE4 are two most common and effective serum markers in recent screening research of ovarian cancer. This paper derives a sequential screening strategy for ovarian cancer by jointly modeling the longitudinal profiles of CA125 and HE4. We construct a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with changepoint, and propose two approaches for diagnosis: the risk of cancer index and the hypothesis test on the true incidence time. We simulated a 7-year sequential screening research and compared with the standard approach based on a fixed cutoff level. Our approach achieves a 15% higher sensitivity for a fixed specificity, indicating that the sequential strategy combining multiple markers is more effective in the early-stage detection of ovarian cancer.     

A real-time monitoring approach for bivariate event data

Early detection of changes in the frequency of events is an important task in many fields, such as disease surveillance, monitoring of high-quality processes, reliability monitoring, and public health. This article focuses on detecting changes in multivariate event data by monitoring the time-between-events (TBE). Existing multivariate TBE charts are limited because they only signal after an event occurred for each of the individual processes. This results in delays (i.e., long time-to-signal), especially when we are interested in detecting a change in one or a few processes with different rates. We propose a bivariate TBE chart, which can signal in real-time. We derive analytical expressions for the control limits and average time-to-signal performance, conduct a performance evaluation and compare our chart to an existing method. Our findings showed that our method is an effective approach for monitoring bivariate TBE data and has better detection ability than the existing method under transient shifts and is more generally applicable. A significant benefit of our method is that it signals in real-time and that the control limits are based on analytical expressions. The proposed method is implemented on two real-life datasets from reliability and health surveillance.     

Dynamic cost allocation for economic lot sizing games

We consider a cooperative game defined by an economic lot sizing problem with concave ordering costs over a finite time horizon, in which each player faces demand for a single product in each period and coalitions can pool orders. We show how to compute a dynamic cost allocation in the strong sequential core of this game, i.e. an allocation over time that exactly distributes costs and is stable against coalitional defections at every period of the time horizon.     

Scheduling with unexpected machine breakdowns

We investigate an online version of a basic scheduling problem where a set of jobs has to be scheduled on a number of identical machines so as to minimize the makespan. The job processing times are known in advance and preemption of jobs is allowed. Machines are non-continuously available, i.e., they can break down and recover at arbitrary time instances not known in advance. New machines may be added as well. Thus machine availabilities change online. We first show that no online algorithm can construct optimal schedules. We also show that no online algorithm can achieve a bounded competitive ratio if there may be time intervals where no machine is available. Then we present an online algorithm that constructs schedules with an optimal makespan of C_max^OPT if a lookahead of one is given, i.e., the algorithm always knows the next point in time when the set of available machines changes. Finally, we give an online algorithm without lookahead that constructs schedules with a nearly optimal makespan of C_max^OPT+, for any >0, if at any time at least one machine is available. Our results demonstrate that not knowing machine availabilities in advance is of little harm.     

Recent advances in gradient algorithms for optimal control problems

This paper summarizes recent advances in the area of gradient algorithms for optimal control problems, with particular emphasis on the work performed by the staff of the Aero-Astronautics Group of Rice University. The following basic problem is considered: minimize a functionalI which depends on the statex(t), the controlu(t), and the parameter π. Here,I is a scalar,x ann-vector,u anm-vector, and π ap-vector. At the initial point, the state is prescribed. At the final point, the statex and the parameter π are required to satisfyq scalar relations. Along the interval of integration, the state, the control, and the parameter are required to satisfyn scalar differential equations. First, the sequential gradient-restoration algorithm and the combined gradient-restoration algorithm are presented. The descent properties of these algorithms are studied, and schemes to determine the optimum stepsize are discussed. Both of the above algorithms require the solution of a linear, two-point boundary-value problem at each iteration. Hence, a discussion of integration techniques is given. Next, a family of gradient-restoration algorithms is introduced. Not only does this family include the previous two algorithms as particular cases, but it allows one to generate several additional algorithms, namely, those with alternate restoration and optional restoration. Then, two modifications of the sequential gradient-restoration algorithm are presented in an effort to accelerate terminal convergence. In the first modification, the quadratic constraint imposed on the variations of the control is modified by the inclusion of a positive-definite weighting matrix (the matrix of the second derivatives of the Hamiltonian with respect to the control). The second modification is a conjugate-gradient extension of the sequential gradient-restoration algorithm. Next, the addition of a nondifferential constraint, to be satisfied everywhere along the interval of integration, is considered. In theory, this seems to be only a minor modification of the basic problem. In practice, the change is considerable in that it enlarges dramatically the number and variety of problems of optimal control which can be treated by gradient-restoration algorithms. Indeed, by suitable transformations, almost every known problem of optimal control theory can be brought into this scheme. This statement applies, for instance, to the following situations: (i) problems with control equality constraints, (ii) problems with state equality constraints, (iii) problems with equality constraints on the time rate of change of the state, (iv) problems with control inequality constraints, (v) problems with state inequality constraints, and (vi) problems with inequality constraints on the time rate of change of the state. Finally, the simultaneous presence of nondifferential constraints and multiple subarcs is considered. The possibility that the analytical form of the functions under consideration might change from one subarc to another is taken into account. The resulting formulation is particularly relevant to those problems of optimal control involving bounds on the control or the state or the time derivative of the state. For these problems, one might be unwilling to accept the simplistic view of a continuous extremal arc. Indeed, one might want to take the more realistic view of an extremal arc composed of several subarcs, some internal to the boundary being considered and some lying on the boundary. The paper ends with a section dealing with transformation techniques. This section illustrates several analytical devices by means of which a great number of problems of optimal control can be reduced to one of the formulations presented here. In particular, the following topics are treated: (i) time normalization, (ii) free initial state, (iii) bounded control, and (iv) bounded state.     

A trust region SQP algorithm for mixed-integer nonlinear programming

We propose a modified sequential quadratic programming method for solving mixed-integer nonlinear programming problems. Under the assumption that integer variables have a smooth influence on the model functions, i.e., that function values do not change drastically when in- or decrementing an integer value, successive quadratic approximations are applied. The algorithm is stabilized by a trust region method with Yuan’s second order corrections. It is not assumed that the mixed-integer program is relaxable or, in other words, function values are evaluated only at integer points. The Hessian of the Lagrangian function is approximated by a quasi-Newton update formula subject to the continuous and integer variables. Numerical results are presented for a set of 80 mixed-integer test problems taken from the literature. The surprising result is that the number of function evaluations, the most important performance criterion in practice, is less than the number of function calls needed for solving the corresponding relaxed problem without integer variables.     

Multi-objective metaheuristics for a location-routing problem with multiple use of vehicles on real data and simulated data

We address an integrated logistic system where decisions on location of depot, vehicle routing and assignment of routes to vehicles are considered simultaneously. Total cost and workload balance are common criteria influencing decision-making. Literature on location-routing problems addressed the location and vehicle routing decisions with a common assumption of assigning one route to one vehicle. However, the cost of acquiring vehicles (and crew) is often more significant than the routing cost. This notion of assigning several routes to a vehicle during the routing procedure is explored in our integrated model. We apply metaheuristics of tabu search and simulated annealing on real data and simulated data, to compare their performances under two versions: simultaneous or sequential routes assignment to vehicles. A new statistical procedure is proposed to compare two algorithms on the strength of their multi-objective solutions. Results show that the simultaneous versions have advantage over the sequential versions in problems where routes are capacity-constrained, but not in the time dimension. The simultaneous versions are also more effective in generating non-dominated solutions than the sequential versions.     

Class clustering destroys delay differentiation in priority queues

This paper considers a discrete-time priority queueing model with one server and two types (classes) of customers. Class-1 customers have absolute (service) priority over class-2 customers. New customer batches enter the system at the rate of one batch per slot, according to a general independent arrival process, i.e., the batch sizes (total numbers of arrivals) during consecutive time slots are i.i.d. random variables with arbitrary distribution. All customers entering the system during the same time slot (i.e., belonging to the same arrival batch) are of the same type, but customer types may change from slot to slot, i.e., from batch to batch. Specifically, the types of consecutive customer batches are correlated in a Markovian way, i.e., the probability that any batch of customers has type 1 or 2, respectively, depends on the type of the previous customer batch that has entered the system. Such an arrival model allows to vary not only the relative loads of both customer types in the arrival stream, but also the amount of correlation between the types of consecutive arrival batches. The results reveal that the amount of delay differentiation between the two customer classes that can be achieved by the priority mechanism strongly depends on the amount of such interclass correlation (or, class clustering) in the arrival stream. We believe that this phenomenon has been largely overlooked in the priority-scheduling literature.     

An approximate dynamic programming framework for modeling global climate policy under decision-dependent uncertainty

Analyses of global climate policy as a sequential decision under uncertainty have been severely restricted by dimensionality and computational burdens. Therefore, they have limited the number of decision stages, discrete actions, or number and type of uncertainties considered. In particular, two common simplifications are the use of two-stage models to approximate a multi-stage problem and exogenous formulations for inherently endogenous or decision-dependent uncertainties (in which the shock at time t+1 depends on the decision made at time t). In this paper, we present a stochastic dynamic programming formulation of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), and the application of approximate dynamic programming techniques to numerically solve for the optimal policy under uncertain and decision-dependent technological change in a multi-stage setting. We compare numerical results using two alternative value function approximation approaches, one parametric and one non-parametric. We show that increasing the variance of a symmetric mean-preserving uncertainty in abatement costs leads to higher optimal first-stage emission controls, but the effect is negligible when the uncertainty is exogenous. In contrast, the impact of decision-dependent cost uncertainty, a crude approximation of technology R&D, on optimal control is much larger, leading to higher control rates (lower emissions). Further, we demonstrate that the magnitude of this effect grows with the number of decision stages represented, suggesting that for decision-dependent phenomena, the conventional two-stage approximation will lead to an underestimate of the effect of uncertainty.     

Network flow formulation of optimal perimeter sensory coverage problem

In this article, the perimeter detection optimization problem in field surveillance and target tracking are discussed. The detection range of sensors is assumed to be circular or elliptical. Sensors are also assumed to be associated with a cost factor reflecting their operational characteristics and power usage. We show that the problem of optimal sensor selection can be reduced to a network flow problem and can then be solved using any existing classical methodology. This significantly reduces the computational time of sensory selection problem which in many cases needs to be solved in almost real time basis, every time that the dynamics of the field changes. The field dynamics could change due to such events as wind direction change and sensor failures.