On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

Supporting the strategy process: a survey of UK OR/MS practitioners

This paper reports the results of an online survey conducted with practitioner members of the UK Operational Research (OR) Society. The purpose of the survey was to explore the current practice of supporting the strategy process in terms of activities supported and tools used. The results of the survey are compared to those of previous surveys to explore developments in, inter alia, the use of management/strategy tools and ‘soft’ Operational Research/Management Science (OR/MS) tools. The survey results demonstrate that OR practitioners actively support the strategy process within their organisations. While a wide variety of tools, drawn from the OR/MS and management/strategy fields, are used to support the strategy process within organisations, the findings suggest that soft OR/MS tools are not regularly used. The findings also demonstrate that tools are combined to support the strategy process from both within and across the OR/MS and management/strategy fields. The paper ends by identifying a number of areas for further research.     

Management science methodologies in environmental management and sustainability: discourses and applications

This paper investigates and discusses the use of systemic methodologies (SMs) developed in management science/operational research (MS/OR), in particular, those SM that have been informing the complexity inherent in environmental management and sustainable (EM/S) practices. By surveying a sample of the top MS/OR and systems journals, we assess the extent to which systemic management science methodologies developed recently have been used in tackling EM/S problems. Titles and abstracts of EM/S applications published in MS/OR and systems journals between 1989 and 2009 were queried for the occurrence of typical keywords associated with a set of SMs (eg, complexity theory, systems dynamics, soft systems, critical systems, viable systems model). The survey identifies a set of articles representing the practice of either a particular methodology or of a mixture of various SMs in EM/S setting. By assembling and critically reviewing a sample of applications in EM/S the paper hopes to raise awareness among environmentalists, operational researchers and management scientists of the benefits of using systemic approaches developed in MS/OR and, in this way, to encourage further exchange and conversation between these fields of management.     

Evaluating soft OR: some reflections on an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation using a Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) based approach

This paper reflects on a case study in which a soft OR problem structuring approach, based on Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), was used to help in the design of an information system for health service users providing care in the community in a part of the South and West Health Region in the UK. The paper reflects on why an apparently ‘successful’ structuring led to an apparently ‘unsuccessful’ implementation. As part of this reflective process, the paper makes a contribution to the soft OR literature by reviewing some of the approaches taken in the literature to the evaluation of success of problem structuring using soft OR. This review reveals a lack of evaluative criteria, a lack of clarity over the identification of users, and a failure to differentiate criteria associated with ‘structuring’ and ‘implementation’ issues. An evaluative framework is proposed, which is applied retrospectively to the case study.     

Writing practitioner case studies to help behavioural OR researchers ground their theories: application of the mangle perspective

Behavioural research into the practice of OR needs to be grounded. Case studies written by practitioners can potentially help address this need but currently most do not. The paper explores a way of describing OR projects that place the emphasis on the ‘actors’ who provide the motivating force and the consequences of their actions. The ‘mangle’ perspective focuses on the dynamic intertwining of people, technology and concepts; this can provide the basis for an insightful narrative describing the reality of the project in terms of the planned approach, the problems met and the outcomes. Two examples are given, one of a conventional model building exercise, the second of a ‘soft OR’ intervention: both describe projects conducted by practitioners for commercial purposes. It is concluded that, by using the mangle perspective, the OR case writer can winnow the wheat from the chaff in order to write a succinct informative narrative, a narrative that could be utilized by behavioural OR (BOR) researchers. It is further concluded that BOR researchers should engage with ‘practice theory’ to deepen their understanding of what actually happens in projects.     

Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review

Forecasting and planning for inventory management has received considerable attention from the Operational Research (OR) community over the last 50 years because of its implications for decision making, both at the strategic level of an organization and at the operational level. Many influential contributions have been made in this area, reflecting different perspectives that have evolved in divergent strands of the literature, namely: system dynamics, control theory and forecasting theory (both statistical and judgemental). Although this pluralism is healthy in terms of knowledge advancement, it also signifies the fragmentation of the OR discipline and the lack of cross-fertilization of ideas to develop more comprehensive approaches towards the resolution of the same issues. In this paper, the relevant literature is reviewed and synthesized to promote some convergence between these different approaches to inventory forecasting and planning. The review concludes with an inter-disciplinary agenda for further research.     

Evaluating Strategy — Its Role Within the Context of Strategic Control

The paper uses a case study to illustrate a number of points in relation to strategy development and strategic control. A group decision support system — ‘Strategic Options Development and Analysis’ (SODA) — was used. The method focuses on the ‘linkages’ between strategic issues rather than on the issues themselves. The paper focuses upon the strategy review process. Three related elements of strategy' are considered as a part of the review: an evaluation of the extent to which the strategy has been implemented and is embedded in the organization; an evaluation of the assumptions underpinning the strategy; and an evaluation of the influence the strategy has on those at the ‘coal-face’.     

A methodology for supporting strategy implementation based on the VSM: A case study in a Latin-American multi-national

Soft OR tools have increasingly been used to support the strategic development of companies at operational and managerial levels. However, we still lack OR applications that can be useful in dealing with the “implementation gap”, understood as the scarcity of resources available to organizations seeking to align their existing processes and structures with a new strategy. In this paper we contribute to filling that gap, describing an action research case study where we supported strategy implementation in a Latin American multinational corporation through a soft OR methodology. We enhanced the ‘Methodology to support organizational self-transformation’, inspired by the Viable System Model, with substantive improvements in data collection and analyses. Those adjustments became necessary to facilitate second order learning and agreements on required structural changes among a large number of participants. This case study contributes to the soft OR and strategy literature with insights about the promise and constraints of this soft OR methodology to collectively structure complex decisions that support organizational redesign and strategy implementation.     

团队规范下管制员违章行为演化与监管研究

为发现团队规范下管制员违章行为及监管策略的演化博弈规律,运用演化博弈理论,构建安全管理者与管制员演化博弈模型,分析博弈系统均衡点的局部稳定性。在此基础上建立演化博弈的系统动力学模型,仿真模拟不同情形下博弈双方策略选择的动态演化过程,并分析模型参数变化对系统演化结果的影响。结果表明:正的团队规范有助于系统演化至理想模式,负的团队规范会使系统陷入“不良锁定”模式和“震荡”模式;管制员行为收益、行为成本、被监查到的概率、处罚力度、监管成本等因素均对系统演化结果产生影响。鼓励班组成员对违章行为进行否定性评价、加大对管制员的处罚力度等均能够长效促进管制员主动遵章。     

Strategy making with the whole organisation: OR and the art of the possible

Present-day expectations of wide stakeholder involvement in strategy-making processes have been addressed in distinctive ways by the Operational Research (OR) and Organisational Development (OD) communities. This paper describes an intervention supporting a strategy for change in a university where a high degree of participation was essential to address the substantive issues faced following the disappointing outcome of an employee satisfaction survey. The importance of staff satisfaction for achieving good business outcomes is explained in the paper before an account is given of the work that was undertaken using a combination of Large Group Intervention and Problem Structuring Method approaches. The achievement of the project in shifting the locus of perceived control and opening up a more participative strategic debate is next assessed. The case demonstrated the benefit of using an intervention process whose participatory nature mirrored the desired changes in the client organisation, and in which the dramatisation of senior management group commitment underlined determination to effect change. Other implications are discussed: the value of using a novel assemblage of approaches and techniques rather than inflexibly following a single methodology; the potential payoff from closer work between the disciplines of OR and OD; and the observation that there is a real opportunity for the wider use of participative approaches in strategy making, something that OR practitioners are well-placed to provide.     

Introducing system dynamics to the BBC World Service: an insider perspective

The paper relates the story of the encounter between system dynamics modelling and the BBC World Service told from the perspective of a manager who was also championing the approach inside the World Service. The outcome provides interesting lessons and useful ideas on the contribution to organisational change that can and cannot be expected from a system dynamics project. The paper opens with a review of the published literature on the impact of system dynamics within organisations. The BBC World Service organisation and culture are then briefly described, with particular reference to potential fits and misfits with the system dynamics approach. The process of building a World Service model is described, both in terms of historical and technical stages. The project's impact on the organisation is reported, whether the impact arose by design or default. This appraisal covers the model building process, the analysis of simulations and finally the development of a microworld or gaming simulator. The paper concludes with comments on the merits of system dynamics to an organisation like the BBC World Service, pinning down the tangible and less tangible benefits delivered, and making suggestions to encourage acceptability of the approach.     

Soft with a hard centre: discrete-event simulation in facilitation

Discrete event simulation is normally described as a ‘hard’ OR technique. This may not, however, always be the case. An example of a simulation of a user support helpline is described which, it is argued, has many of the traits of a ‘soft’ OR intervention. In particular, the study involved a facilitated discussion around a simulation model about possible improvements to a problem situation. The nature of the intervention is considered from both a methodological and paradigmatic perspective, and conclusions are drawn about where the intervention lies on a ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ continuum. It is argued that ‘soft’ issues need to be subsumed into the prescribed methodology for discrete-event simulation.     

Artificial intelligence for decision support systems in the field of operations research: review and future scope of research

Operations research (OR) has been at the core of decision making since World War II, and today, business interactions on different platforms have changed business dynamics, introducing a high degree of uncertainty. To have a sustainable vision of their business, firms need to have a suitable decision-making process at each stage, including minute details. Our study reviews and investigates the existing research in the field of decision support systems (DSSs) and how artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have been integrated into OR. The findings of our review show how AI has contributed to decision making in the operations research field. This review presents synergies, differences, and overlaps in AI, DSSs, and OR. Furthermore, a clarification of the literature based on the approaches adopted to develop the DSS is presented along with the underlying theories. The classification has been primarily divided into two categories, i.e. theory building and application-based approaches, along with taxonomies based on the AI, DSS, and OR areas. In this review, past studies were calibrated according to prognostic capability, exploitation of large data sets, number of factors considered, development of learning capability, and validation in the decision-making framework. This paper presents gaps and future research opportunities concerning prediction and learning, decision making and optimization in view of intelligent decision making in today’s era of uncertainty. The theoretical and managerial implications are set forth in the discussion section justifying the research questions.

     

OR in strategic land-use planning

An important historic strategic application of OR has been in the field of land-use and development plan production. Changes in Government policy and legislation have led to varying levels of interest in plan production. Three post-war cycles of ‘enthusiasm for plans’ can be identified. Whilst the first was rooted very much in the Architectural Design tradition, the second led to significant developments in OR, with far wider application. Subsequent reduced Governmental enthusiasm for ‘Development Plan production’ led to considerable atrophy of relevant skills in the planning community, including those derived from OR. However, the current ‘third period of post-war enthusiasm for planning’, reinforced by environmental concerns, has revived the need for relevant skills. It is suggested that, whilst the deficit in skills and their application remains high, there are some encouraging signs. Moreover, substantial progress in the field of ‘soft OR’ offers opportunities to both the OR and planning communities.     

A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science

The systems approach, or systems thinking, has been intimately connected with the development of OR and management science initially through the work of founders such as Churchman and Ackoff and latterly through innovations such as soft systems. In this paper we have undertaken a review of the contribution that systems thinking has been making more recently, especially to the practice of OR. Systems thinking is a discipline in its own right, with many theoretical and methodological developments, but it is also applicable to almost any problem area because of its generality, and so such a review must always be selective. We have looked at the literature from both a theoretical and an applications orientation. In the first part we consider the main systems theories and methodologies in terms of their recent developments and also their applications. This covers: the systems approach, complexity theory, cybernetics, system dynamics, soft OR and PSMs, critical systems and multimethodology. In the second part we review the main domains of application: strategy, information systems, organisations, production and operations, ecology and agriculture, and medicine and health. Our overall conclusion is that while systems may not be well established institutionally, in terms of academic departments, it is incredibly healthy in terms of the quantity and variety of its applications.     

Frameworks of Inquiry: OR Practice Across the Hard—Soft Divide

The growing interest in understanding the practice of OR has, not unnaturally, tended to concentrate upon experience with those ‘soft’ methodologies which address both process and content management issues. This paper uses a detailed account of one practitioner's work in a ‘traditional’ area of OR (linear programming) to demonstrate how process-related issues are handled there, and argues that more extensive reporting of such conventional practice is essential for the health of the discipline. In particular, it suggests that an emphasis on discussing the development of working relationships between OR practitioners and their clients might usefully supplant the contemporary emphasis on the ‘project’.     

Putting soft OR methods to work: the case of IS strategy development for the UK Parliament

In 1999 a project was undertaken to develop an information systems strategy (ISS) for the UK Parliament. This was the first time that both Houses of Parliament, the Lords and the Commons, had collaborated in such a venture. The paper describes the attempt to apply soft OR in the project. Because of the inherent interest of the context of the intervention, the paper describes the project in some detail. In the event the formal soft OR methods were not used but a soft approach was taken. The experience complements earlier studies in the retail, mining and electricity supply industries. The paper is the last in a series of published case studies, which describe attempts to apply soft methods in practice. Together the cases articulate the ‘strand of practice’ of one practitioner.     

The ‘invisible science’: operational research for the British Armed Forces after 1945

This paper presents an original account of the contribution of operational research (OR) to the formulation of tactics and strategy on behalf of the British Armed Forces in the four decades after 1945. The main focus is on the Cold War in the European theatre, where OR analysts devoted considerable time and effort to the modelling of warfare on behalf of the British Army of the Rhine. In the absence of combat data for nuclear weapons, OR analysts devised a sequence of war games which evolved in conformity with the development of NATO strategy in relation to the Warsaw Pact. Again in the context of the Cold War, the paper analyses the role of OR in relation to the early V bomber force and the introduction of ‘global war studies’ on behalf of the Royal Navy. The paper also comments on the organisational structure of British military OR following on the creation of a centralised OR facility within the Ministry of Defence in 1965. In conclusion, the paper notes the sea-change in military OR following the end of the Cold War in 1990 and the onset of a period of sustained ‘asymmetric’ military operations in the former Yugoslavia, the Middle East and Afghanistan.     

Holistic oil field value management: using system dynamics for ‘intermediate level’ and ‘value-based’ modelling in the oil industry

System dynamics has been seen primarily as a strategic tool, most effectively used at the highest level of strategy to identify robust policy interventions under a wide range of scenarios. However, an alternative, complementary and powerful role is emerging. This is at an ‘intermediate level’ in organisations to coordinate and integrate policies across the value chain. It is at this level where business value, as defined by the discounted value of future free cash flow, is both created and destroyed. This paper introduces the need for ‘intermediate-level’ and ‘value-based’ modelling and emphasises the natural role of system dynamics in supporting a methodology to fulfil the need. It describes the development of an approach and its application in the oil industry to coordinate the response of people and tools within operational, financial and commercial functions across the value chain to address a variety of problems and issues.     

Strategic operational research

Operational researchers have been slow to define and claim a strategic role for operational research (OR). This article discusses the OR activities of a number of leading-edge organisations, and argues that in several instances these activities have sustained a competitive advantage over a significant period of time, and are seen as a ‘strategic asset’ to the parent corporation. Finally, it is argued that OR people should begin talking about OR as a strategic asset, and that recognition of this strategic role provides a vision of a very exciting future for OR.