The effect of information sharing on supply chain stability and the bullwhip effect

This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in multi-stage supply chains operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies and shared supply chain information. Such information includes past order sequences and inventory records at all supplier stages. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed at any stage of the chain when the customer demand process is known and ergodic, and gives an exact formula for the variance of the orders placed. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect and bound its magnitude. These results hold independently of the customer demand. The general framework proposed in this paper allows for any inventory replenishment policies, any ways of sharing and utilizing information, and any customer demand processes. It is also shown as a special case that sharing customer demand information across the chain significantly reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the bullwhip effect.     

Robust tests for the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic dynamics

This paper analyzes the bullwhip effect in single-echelon supply chains driven by arbitrary customer demands and operated nondeterministically. The supply chain, with stochastic system parameters, is modeled as a Markovian jump linear system. The paper presents robust analytical conditions to diagnose the bullwhip effect and bound its magnitude. The tests are independent of the customer demand. Examples are given. Ordering policies that pass these tests, and thus avoid the bullwhip effect in random environments for arbitrary customer demands, are shown to exist. The paper also presents possible extensions to multi-echelon chains.     

Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with autoregressive demand process

In supply chain management, one of the most critical problems which require a lot of effort to deal with is how to quantify and alleviate the impact of bullwhip effect – the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted while moving upstream. Although it is well established that demand forecast, lead time, order batching, shortage gaming and price fluctuation are the main sources that lead to the bullwhip effect, the problem of quantifying bullwhip effect still remain unsolved in many situations due to the complex nature of the problem. In this research, a measure of bullwhip effect will be developed for a simple two-stage supply chain that includes only one retailer and one supplier in the environment where the retailer employs base stock policy for their inventory and demand forecast is performed through the first-order autoregressive model, AR(1). The effect of autoregressive coefficient and lead time on this measure will then be investigated.     

A robust optimization approach to reduce the bullwhip effect of supply chains with vendor order placement lead time delays in an uncertain environment

Supply chain management is important for companies and organizations to improve their business and enhance competitiveness in the global marketplace. The bullwhip effect problem of supply chain systems with vendor order placement lead time delays in an uncertain environment is addressed in this paper. Among the numerous causes of bullwhip effect, we focus on uncertainties with respect to demand, production process, supply chain structure, inventory policy implementation and especially vendor order placement lead time delays. Minimizing the negative effect of these uncertainties in inducing bullwhip effect creates a need for developing dynamical inventory policy that increases responsiveness to demand and decreases volatility in inventory replenishment. First, a dynamic model of supply chain with above uncertainties is developed. Then, a novel uncertainty-dependent robust inventory control method using inventory position information is proposed. Additionally, the maximum allowable vendor order placement lead time delay that ensures the stability of supply chains and the suppression of bullwhip effect under the proposed inventory control policy is explored and measured. We find that vendor order placement lead time delays do play important role in supply chain dynamics and contribute to its turbulence and volatility. The effectiveness and flexibility of proposed method is verified through simulation study.     

A multi-layer demand-responsive logistics control methodology for alleviating the bullwhip effect of supply chains

This paper presents a multi-layer demand-responsive logistics control strategy for alleviating, effectively and efficiently, the bullwhip effect of a supply chain. Utilizing stochastic optimal control methodology, the proposed method estimates the time-varying demand-oriented logistics system states, which originate directly and indirectly downstream to the targeted member of a supply chain, and associate these estimated demands with estimates of different time-varying weights under the goal of systematically optimizing the logistical performance of chain members. In addition, an experimental design is conducted where the proposed method is evaluated with the two specified criteria. Numerical results indicate that the proposed method permits alleviating, to a great extent, the bullwhip effect in comparison with the existing logistics management strategies. Furthermore, the methodology presented in this study is expected to help address issues regarding the uncertainty and complexity of the distortion of demand-related information existing broadly among supply chain members for an efficient supply chain coordination.     

Optimizing of bullwhip effect and net stock amplification in three-echelon supply chains using evolutionary multi-objective metaheuristics

In this article, we intend to model and optimize the bullwhip effect (BWE) and net stock amplification (NSA) in a three-stage supply chain consisting of a retailer, a wholesaler, and a manufacturer under both centralized and decentralized scenarios. In this regard, firstly, the causes of BWE and NSA are mathematically formulated using response surface methodology (RSM) as a multi-objective optimization model that aims to minimize the BWE and NSA on both chains. The simultaneous analysis of the BWE and NSA is considered as the main novelty of this paper. To tackle the addressed problem, we propose a novel multi-objective hybrid evolutionary approach called MOHES; MOHES is a hybrid of two known multi-objective algorithms i.e. multi-objective electro magnetism mechanism algorithm (MOEMA) and population-based multi-objective simulated annealing (PBMOSA). We applied a co-evolutionary strategy for this purpose with eligibility of both algorithms. Proposed MOHES is compared with three common and popular algorithms (i.e. NRGA, NSGAII, and MOPSO). Since the utilized algorithms are very sensitive to parameter values, RSM with the multi-objective decision making (MODM) approach is employed to tune the parameters. Finally, the hybrid algorithm and the singular approaches are compared together in terms of some performance measures. The results indicate that the hybrid approach achieves better solutions when compared with the others, and also the results show that in a decentralized chain, the order batching factor and the demand signal processing in wholesaler are the most important factors on BWE. Conversely, in a centralized chain, factors such as rationing, shortage gaming, and lead time are the most effective at reducing the BWE.     

A measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with a mixed autoregressive-moving average demand process

In this paper, we quantify the impact of the bullwhip effect – the phenomenon in which information on demand is distorted as moving up a supply chain – for a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. Assuming that the retailer employs a base stock inventory policy, and that the demand forecast is performed via a mixed autoregressive-moving average model, ARMA(1, 1), we investigate the effects of the autoregressive coefficient, the moving average parameter, and the lead time on the bullwhip effect.     

The bullwhip effect in supply chain networks

This paper analyzes the propagation and amplification of order fluctuations (i.e., the bullwhip effect) in supply chain networks operated with linear and time-invariant inventory management policies. The supply chain network is allowed to include multiple customers (e.g., markets), any network structure, with or without sharing information. The paper characterizes the stream of orders placed by any supplier for any stationary customer demand processes, and gives exact formulas for the variance of the orders placed and the amplification of order fluctuations. The paper also derives robust analytical conditions, based only on inventory management policies, to predict the presence of the bullwhip effect for any network structure, any inventory replenishment policies, and arbitrary customer demand processes. Numerical examples show that the analytical results accurately quantify the bullwhip effect; managerial insights are drawn from the analysis. The methodology presented in this paper generalizes those in previous studies for serial supply chains.     

Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains: The case of high order autoregressive demand process

Bullwhip effect – the phenomenon in which variance of demand is amplified when moving upstream – has attracted the attention of many researchers for the last few decades. Although the main sources that cause bullwhip effect have been identified, quantifying the bullwhip effect still remains a challenge. In the past, measuring the bullwhip effect for supply chains with autoregressive demand process has been conducted by some researchers. However, most past researches focused mainly on the simple AR(1) model. In many practical situations, autoregressive models with higher order should be employed because they might better represent the demand process. Up to now, very little effort has been spent on this matter. Therefore, this research is conducted to fill this gap by first dealing with AR(2) demand process and investigating the behavior of the developed measure with respect to autoregressive coefficients and order lead-time. Extension to the general AR(p) demand process is then considered.     

Inventory control of supply chains: Mitigating the bullwhip effect by centralized and decentralized Internal Model Control approaches

In this paper, a two-degrees-of-freedom Internal Model Control structure is incorporated in production inventory control for a supply chain system. This scheme presents an intuitive and simple parametrization of controllers, where inventory target tracking and disturbance (demand) rejection in the inventory level problems are treated separately. Moreover, considering that the lead times are known, this scheme presents a perfect compensation of the delay making the stabilization problem easier to handle. This control structure is formulated for a serial supply chain in two ways (by using a centralized and a decentralized control approach). The behavior of these inventory control strategies is analyzed in the entire supply chain. Analytical tuning rules for bullwhip effect avoidance are developed for both strategies. The results of controller evaluations demonstrate that centralized control approach enhances the behavior with respect to the inventory target tracking, demand rejection and bullwhip effect in the supply chain systems.     

Benefits of working capital sharing in supply chains

Supply chain finance and working capital management are important avenues to reduce supply chain costs. Small suppliers may not have sufficient working capital to finance their operations and efficiently supply their customers. We develop a model that captures the fundamental aspects of financial and operational planning in a two-stage supply chain, with both strong and weak members. A strong member can negotiate for more favorable financing rates, more advantageous payment terms, and shorter lead times than a weaker member. We investigate two working capital allocation scenarios. In the dedicated working capital allocation scenario, the members of the supply chain each have their own working capital. In the joint working capital allocation scenario, the members of the supply chain have a joint pool of working capital. Our results demonstrate significant benefits when the members of the supply chain share the working capital. We also show that extending payment delays to a supplier upstream results in higher overall supply chain costs.     

Demand forecast sharing in a dual-channel supply chain

We assess the benefits of sharing demand forecast information in a manufacturer–retailer supply chain, consisting of a traditional retail channel and a direct channel. The demand is a linear function of price with a Gaussian primary demand (i.e., zero-price market potential). Both the manufacturer and the retailer set their price based on their forecast of the primary demand. In this setting, we investigate the value of sharing demand forecasts. We analyze the ‘make-to-order’ scenario, in which prices are set before and production takes place after the primary demand is known, and the ‘make-to-stock’ scenario, in which production takes place and prices are set before the primary demand is known. We also compare the supply chain performance with and without the direct channel under some assumptions (production cost is zero, and each demand function has the same slope of price). We find that the direct channel has a negative impact on the retailer’s performance, and, under some conditions, the manufacturer and the whole supply chain are better off. Our research extends and complements prior research that has investigated only the inventory and replenishment-related benefits of information sharing.     

Measuring endogenous supply chain volatility: Beyond the bullwhip effect

Most recent research on supply chain volatility has focused on one particular dimension of that volatility, namely the amplification of upstream order variability. While not ignoring this aspect of supply chain volatility, we focus on a different but equally critical aspect of volatility: the cyclical oscillation of on-hand and on-order inventories about their target values. We prove that such cyclicality does not require oscillatory or random retailer demand as a prerequisite; the resulting volatility is therefore endogenous rather than simply an amplification of exogenous demand inputs. We also measure the amount of amplification resulting from a step increase in demand. The order amplification is the product of two factors, each of which is clearly linked to either on-hand or on-order inventory. Our results attest that supply chain volatility can arise in the absence of exogenous oscillatory or random demand and suggest strategies for avoiding or minimizing such volatility.     

Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory

This work analyzes a two echelon (warehouse–retailer) serial supply chain to study the impact of information sharing (IS) and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory. The customer demand at the retailer is assumed to be an autoregressive (AR(1)) process. Both the echelons use a minimum mean squared error (MMSE) model for forecasting lead time demand (LTD), and follow an adaptive base-stock inventory policy to determine their respective order quantities. For the cases of without IS and inter as well as intra echelon IS, expressions for the bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory for the warehouse are obtained, considering deterministic lead-time. The results are compared with the previous research work and an easy analysis of the various bullwhip effect expressions under different scenarios, is done to understand the impact of IS on the bullwhip effect phenomenon. It is shown that some part of bullwhip effect will always remain even after sharing both inter as well as intra echelon information. Further, with the help of a numerical example it is shown that the lead time reduction is more beneficial in comparison to the sharing of information in terms of reduction in the bullwhip effect phenomenon.     

Price fluctuations,information sharing,and supply chain performance

We consider a supply chain consisting of one supplier with finite production capacity and a retailer facing independent and identically distributed demands from end-customers. Existing research advocates that, in a decentralized setting, the retailer and the supplier using stationary order up to policies is efficient. We show that in the presence of information sharing, the supply chain performance can be improved by the supplier offering fluctuating prices. We study two specific settings: (1) the supplier only knows the parameters of the retailer’s inventory policy; and (2) the supplier knows the day-to-day inventory levels at the retailer as well. After establishing structure of optimal policies and developing efficient solution procedures, we perform an extensive computational study to determine the extent of the improvements realizable in the supply chain. We observed that for setting 1, an improvement was realized only when the end-customer demands were highly variable. Even then, the improvement in supply chain performance was less than 1%. Whereas, for setting 2, the improvement in supply chain performance averaged around 5.0% with a maximum of 16.3%.     

Optimal production and rationing decisions in supply chains with information sharing

This paper considers a two-echelon capacitated supply chain with two non-identical retailers and information sharing. We characterize the optimal inventory policies. We also study the benefits of the optimal stock rationing policy over the first come first served (FCFS) and the modified echelon-stock rationing (MESR) policies.     

Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a supply chain with stochastic lead time

In a recent paper, Dejonckheere, Disney, Lambrecht, and Towill [European Journal of Operational Research 147 (2003) 567] used control systems engineering (transfer functions, frequency response, spectral analysis) to quantify the bullwhip effect. In the present paper, we, like Chen, Ryan, Drezner, and Simchi-Levi [Management Science 46 (2000) 436], use the statistical method. But our method extends Dejonckheere et al. and Chen et al. in that we include stochastic lead time and provide expressions for quantifying the bullwhip effect, both with information sharing and without information sharing. We use iid demands in a k-stage supply chain for both. By contrast, Chen et al. provide lower bounds using autoregressive demand for information sharing and for information not sharing (with zero safety factor for stocks). Dejonckheere et al. validate Chen et al.’s results for a 2-stage supply chain without information sharing, using both autoregressive and iid normally distributed demands. We estimate the mean and variance of lead-time demand (LTD) from historical LTD data, rather than from the component period demands and lead time. Nevertheless, we also calculate the variance amplification like Chen et al., but with gamma lead times. With constant lead times, which Chen et al. used, our method yields lower variance amplification. As for the effect of information, we find that the variance increases nearly linearly in echelon stage with information sharing but exponentially in echelon stage without information sharing.     

Bilateral information sharing in two supply chains with complementary products

Information sharing has been regarded as a major way to promote collaboration or to optimize overall supply chain performance. Most of the literature has focused on unilateral information sharing in a supply chain with single or substitutable products. This paper investigates bilateral information sharing in two supply chains with complementary products, and formulates four decision models based on different information sharing patterns. Our results show that (i) information sharing always benefits the manufacturer, and benefits the retailer and the whole supply chain under certain conditions; (ii) information sharing increases/decreases the positive effect of the retailer’s/manufacturer’s forecast on the optimal pricing strategies in its own supply chain; however, its impact depends on the parameter conditions in the other complementary supply chain.     

Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains

Many companies are adopting strategies that enable Demand Information Sharing (DIS) between the supply chain links. Recently, a steady stream of research has identified mathematical relationships between demands and orders at any link in the supply chain. Based on these relationships and strict model assumptions, it has been suggested that the upstream member can infer the demand at the downstream member from their orders. If this is so, DIS will be of no value. In this paper, we argue that real-world modelling requires less restrictive assumptions. We present Feasibility Principles to show that it is not possible for an upstream member to accurately infer consumer demand under more realistic model assumptions. Thus, we conclude that DIS has value in supply chains. We then move our focus to the supply chain model assumptions in the papers arguing that there is value in sharing demand information. Using a simulation experiment, we show that the value of sharing demand information in terms of inventory reductions will increase under more realistic supply chain model assumptions.     

Controlling the bullwhip effect in a supply chain system with constrained information flows

The bullwhip effect problem is one of the most important issues in supply chain management. Limited information sharing increases the difficulty of reducing the bullwhip effect and leads to inefficient supply chain management. The purpose of this paper is to explore new ways to reduce the bullwhip effect in supply chain systems that face uncertainties with respect to information sharing. We first present a supply chain state transition model, based on which we explore the endogenous mechanism of bullwhip effect, especially those related to impacts from limited information sharing. Then we propose a novel inventory control method and study the corresponding control optimization problem, with the aim of reducing inventory volatility in supply chains. Both quantitative analysis and simulation study are conducted. Simulation results show the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed method in reducing bullwhip effect and in improving supply chain performance, even under conditions of limited information sharing.