Non-homogeneous random walks on a semi-infinite strip

We study the asymptotic behaviour of Markov chains (_Xn,_ηn)$(X_n,{\eta }_n)$ on _Z+×S${\mathbb{Z}}_{+}\times S$, where _Z+${\mathbb{Z}}_{+}$ is the non-negative integers and S$S$ is a finite set. Neither coordinate is assumed to be Markov. We assume a moments bound on the jumps of _Xn$X_n$, and that, roughly speaking, _ηn${\eta }_n$ is close to being Markov when _Xn$X_n$ is large. This departure from much of the literature, which assumes that _ηn${\eta }_n$ is itself a Markov chain, enables us to probe precisely the recurrence phase transitions by assuming asymptotically zero drift for _Xn$X_n$ given _ηn${\eta }_n$. We give a recurrence classification in terms of increment moment parameters for _Xn$X_n$ and the stationary distribution for the large- X$X$ limit of _ηn${\eta }_n$. In the null case we also provide a weak convergence result, which demonstrates a form of asymptotic independence between _Xn$X_n$ (rescaled) and _ηn${\eta }_n$. Our results can be seen as generalizations of Lamperti’s results for non-homogeneous random walks on _Z+${\mathbb{Z}}_{+}$ (the case where S$S$ is a singleton). Motivation arises from modulated queues or processes with hidden variables where _ηn${\eta }_n$ tracks an internal state of the system.     

Estimation for stochastic differential equations with a small diffusion coefficient

We consider a multidimensional diffusion X$X$ with drift coefficient b(_Xt,α)$b(X_t,\alpha )$ and diffusion coefficient εa(_Xt,β)$\epsilon a(X_t,\beta )$ where α$\alpha$ and β$\beta$ are two unknown parameters, while ε$\epsilon$ is known. For a high frequency sample of observations of the diffusion at the time points k/n$k/n$, k=1,…,n$k=1,\dots ,n$, we propose a class of contrast functions and thus obtain estimators of (α,β)$(\alpha ,\beta )$. The estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal when n→∞$n\to \infty$ and ε→0$\epsilon \to 0$ in such a way that ε⁻¹n^−ρ${\epsilon }^{-1}{n}^{-\rho }$ remains bounded for some ρ>0$\rho >0$. The main focus is on the construction of explicit contrast functions, but it is noted that the theory covers quadratic martingale estimating functions as a special case. In a simulation study we consider the finite sample behaviour and the applicability to a financial model of an estimator obtained from a simple explicit contrast function.