两个同型部件温贮备系统的几何过程模型

利用可靠性理论,研究了两个同型部件和一个修理工组成的可修型温贮备系统.假设两个部件的工作寿命、贮备寿命、故障后的修理时间和贮备故障后的修理时间均服从不同的指数分布,在工作故障和贮备故障都不能"修复如新"的情况下,运用几何过程理论、拉普拉斯变换和补充变量方法得出该模型的一些可靠性指标.     

故障时间任意分布的两部件可修复系统解的适定性分析

讨论了一个由两个部件并联组成的可修复冗余系统模型,修复后的故障系统恢复如新.在假设修复函数有界的条件下,给出了C_0-半群的生成元(系统算子)对应的柯西问题的解的适定性分析.     

同时考虑故障相关和变故障率的可修系统可靠性计算

基于Copula相关性理论,考虑可修系统零部件工作寿命、故障部件修复时间之间的正相关性,且将零件工作寿命、修复时间放宽到一般连续分布,而不局限于指数分布.提出微时间差t→t+△t内系统一步状态转移矩阵概念,进而演算出状态转移密度矩阵,经系统状态方程,分别给出了任意时刻t单部件、串联型、二不同单元和一修理工组成的并联可修系统的可用度和稳态可用度计算模型.通过算例,说明该理论方法的可行性.     

负载分担并联可修系统的可靠性分析

针对负载分担可修的并联系统模型,考虑了控制器可修,修理工多人的情形,并且在将控制器作为关键部件优先维修的规则下,对模型进行了可靠性分析.最后用一个实例,求得一些常见的系统可靠性指标,并结合部件的失效率和修复率进行了深入讨论,在系统不可修时求得其可靠度和平均寿命.     

常规故障具预警功能的两相同部件并联冗余可修复系统

研究了常规故障具预警功能的两相同部件并联冗余可修复系统.通过选取状态空间和定义系统算子,将模型方程转化成为了抽象Cauchy问题.然后利用算子半群理论证明了系统解的存在唯一性与指数稳定性.另外,得到结论:当风险系数λc趋于无穷大时,这种系统逼近于一种具有mild解的模型系统.     

一类修复不如新的可修复系统的可靠性分析

用增补变量的方法建立了在人为错误下修复不如新的两相同部件并联可修复系统.通过选取空间和定义系统算子,将模型方程转化成为了抽象Cauchy问题.然后利用线性算子半群理论研究了系统解的存在唯一性和渐近稳定性,进一步对系统的可用度做了比较分析.     

具有备用部件的并联可修复系统稳态解的最优控制问题

针对一种具有两个运行部件和一个储备部件,考虑系统通常故障的发生,且系统故障服从一般分布的人—机系统模型.在Banach空间中,用泛数指标函数作为衡量系统可控的标准,给出了可修复系统最优控制的判别条件.     

基于几何过程和位相分布休假的两部件并联可修系统的可靠性分析

主要以两不同型部件组成的并联可修系统为研究对象.在系统对失效相位存在记忆的基础上,考虑了修理工可单重休假且休假时间服从位相(PH)分布.每个工作部件均有可能因受到两种不同类型的故障而失效,且均"修复非新".在假定部件的工作时间,修理时间分别服从PH分布的几何过程和负指数分布的条件下,利用马尔可夫过程和矩阵分析的方法,对可修系统进行了可靠性分析,并给出了相应可靠性指标的数值算例.     

修理工可单重休假的预防维修更换策略

本文研究了一个修理工带有单重休假的单部件可修系统.为了延长系统的使用寿命,在系统故障前考虑了预防维修,且假定预防维修能够“修复如新”,而故障维修为“修复非新”时,以系统的故障次数N为更换策略.通过更新过程和几何过程理论,得出系统经长期运行单位时间内期望费用的明显表达式,并对预防维修的定长间隔时间T及更换策略N进行了讨论,最后,通过实例分析,求出最优策略N’,使得目标函数取得最优值.     

具有单重休假和修复不如新的两部件并联系统

为了解决由"修复非新"部件组成的具有休假的可修型系统,运用几何过程理论、补充变量法和拉普拉斯变换工具,研究了由两个不同型部件和一个修理工组成的可修型并联系统.假设两个部件的工作寿命和修理时间均服从不同的指数分布,修理工可休假,对部件1的修理是几何修理而对部件2的修理则是修复如新,得到了系统的可用度、可靠度和系统首次故障前平均时间等可靠性指标.成果具有一定的理论和实际意义.     

System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers

In the past ten years, system dynamics has become more accessible to policymakers and to the academic community. The paper reviews four major developments in the subject that have brought about this change. There have been improvements in the symbols and software used to map and model system structure. New ideas have been adopted from behavioural decision theory which help to transfer policymakers' knowledge into computer models. There have been improvements in methods of simulation analysis that enable modelers and model users to gain better insight into dynamic behaviour. Greater emphasis has been placed on small transparent models, on games and on dialogue between ‘mental models’ and computer simulations. Together these developments allow modelers to create computer-based learning environments (or microworlds) for policymakers to ‘play-with’ their knowledge of business and social systems and to debate policy and strategy change. The paper concludes with some thoughts on future research.     

车站咽喉通过能力可视化计算集成系统的研究

在对国内外咽喉道岔通过能力计算方法比较与分析基础上 ,论文提出了车站咽喉通过能力可视化计算集成系统的系统结构和功能设计 ,应用图论和网络优化技术对车站咽喉布置、咽喉及车站作业过程进行抽象建模 ,建立了咽喉作业占用安排网络优化和咽喉作业能力的复合递阶决策模型 .该研究综合运用上述模型、算法、计算机信息处理技术和图形技术 ,可视化模拟咽喉作业情况 ,实现了核心基础数据计算机模拟采集、作业优化安排和最大可实现能力的查定及优化 ,并将结果以图形方式输出 .通过实例验证表明 ,计算结果合理可信 ,可用于车站咽喉能力的评价检验 .     

Dynamical Particle Simulation with Parallel Cache-Aware Domain Decomposition Strategies

The simulation of large particle systems with the Discrete Element Method can be very time consuming. This is due to the necessity for collision detection between the disordered particles. Various methods, originating from different areas such as computer science, are well established and have been used in various applications. For parallel computations the simulation domain needs to be divided into subdomains to be distributed among the different nodes or machines within a supercomputer or a computer-cluster. The strategy for this domain decomposition has a significant influence on the performance of the calculation. In this paper we discuss some aspects of the development of a hierarchical domain decomposition algorithm that provides flexible adaption of the decomposition pattern to the changing structure of the particle system during the simulation. Thus an even load distribution among the different machines can be maintained. Moreover, the same method is also used to deal with the computational bottleneck caused by the presence of unstructured data. (© 2005 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

超市模型的实时动态控制及其数值分析

超市模型是针对大型并行排队网络所进行的 实时动态控制的随机负载平衡策略, 它在计算机网络、云计算、制造系统、交通网络等领域有着重要的实际应用价值. 本文考虑了超市模型中的若干重要问题: 实时动态控制模式; 效率比较; 平均场黑洞; 马氏变动环境; 稳定性; 固定点; 系统性能评价等等. 同时, 本文也通过数值算例研究了上述重要问题, 包括对顾客加入最短队列的超市模型与服务台服务最长队列的超市模型进行了性能比较, 给出了他们效率的优劣分析; 在超市模型中对控制到达过程机制进行了三种情况的对比; 对马氏变动环境下的超市模型进行了性能评价.     

泊松分布高阶原点矩的两种计算方法

考虑到直接用定义计算泊松分布高阶原点矩的复杂性,将组合数学中的第二类Stirling数和二项式定理应用到泊松分布高阶原点矩的计算中,得到了泊松分布高阶原点矩的简单和式与递推表达式,并利用结论计算了泊松分布的前九阶原点矩.     

Adaptive Gaussian process emulators for efficient reliability analysis

This paper presents an approximation method for performing efficient reliability analysis with complex computer models. The computational cost of industrial-scale models can cause problems when performing sampling-based reliability analysis. This is due to the fact that the failure modes of the system typically occupy a small region of the performance space and thus require relatively large sample sizes to accurately estimate their characteristics. The sequential sampling method proposed in this article, combines Gaussian process-based optimisation and subset simulation. Gaussian process emulators construct a statistical approximation to the output of the original code, which is both affordable to use and has its own measure of predictive uncertainty. Subset simulation is used as an integral part of the algorithm to efficiently populate those regions of the surrogate which are likely to lead to the performance function exceeding a predefined critical threshold. The emulator itself is used to inform decisions about efficiently using the original code to augment its predictions. The iterative nature of the method ensures that an arbitrarily accurate approximation of the failure region is developed at a reasonable computational cost. The presented method is applied to an industrial model of a biodiesel filter.     

An Application of Queueing Theory to a Teletraffic Problem

In planning investment to meet growth in demand on the telephone system, it is highly desirable to be able to predict how well proposed configurations of exchange equipment will meet specified future demand. The methods developed for this purpose form the body of telephone traffic theory.This paper describes approximate queueing theoretic methods used in the analysis of queueing delay in the TXK3 crossbar exchange, and compares the results obtained from these models with results from simulation study. The methods have already been used in the analysis of exchanges but, in the author's view, are not yet fully validated.     

Experiments with parallel algorithms for combinatorial problems

In the last decade many models for parallel computation have been proposed and many parallel algorithms have been developed. However, few of these models have been realized and most of these algorithms are supposed to run on idealized, unrealistic parallel machines.The parallel machines constructed so far all use a simple model of parallel computation. Therefore, not every existing parallel machine is equally well suited for each type of algorithm. The adaptation of a certain algorithm to a specific parallel architecture may severely increase the complexity of the algorithm or severely obscure its essence.Little is known about the performance of some standard combinatorial algorithms on existing parallel machines. In this paper we present computational results concerning the solution of knapsack, shortest paths and change-making problems by branch and bound, dynamic programming, and divide and conquer algorithms on the ICL-DAP (an SIMD computer), the Manchester dataflow machine and the CDC-CYBER-205 (a pipeline computer).     

Fluctuation analysis in queues with several operational modes and priority customers

We analyze a complex queueing system with a single server operating in three different modes and dependent on circumstances, servicing two different queues simultaneously. There are different switching policies that specify when the server takes one or two queues. Main techniques are based on fluctuation analysis. One of the objectives is to model processes that occur in software, computer, and electrical engineering, and to argue that methods of fluctuation theory produce closed form functionals.     

基于多Agent的心理战效果评估方法研究

心理作战系统是典型的复杂适应系统。以复杂适应系统理论为指导,运用多Agent建模仿真方法,建立了心理战效果评估模型,开发了心理战智能体仿真平台PSYOPASP,对5种心理战防御方案进行仿真实验。