基于主成分分析法的微博影响力评估方法及实证分析——以“新浪微博”为例

介绍了微博作为一种新型社会化媒体的基本结构和特点,并从微博的信息传播机制出发,分析认为用户交互模式较大程度地体现了微博的影响力,由此总结出微博的4个基本功能,以"新浪微博"为研究样本,甄选了7项指标构成微博影响力评价指标体系,应用主成分分析法推导出各项指标的权重,最后建立了微博影响力评价模型.     

基于粗糙集的政务微博影响力评估方法及实证研究

根据政务微博的功能和用户交互行为模式,构建了以关注度、活跃度、政务服务度和认同度为维度的四维度政务微博影响力评价指标体系,并给出了基于粗糙集的政务微博影响力评价模型及具体的评价流程.模型采用粗糙集的属性重要度来确定各评价指标的权重,权值是完全基于样本数据驱动导出,使评价结果更具客观性和合理性.以北京市交通行业的政务微博评价为实例,验证了所提出方法的合理性和可行性.     

政务微博评估模型及实证研究

微博作为一种新型便捷的媒体交互式平台,拥有大量的用户和流通信息.为了更好地倾听民声、征集民意和服务人民,政务微博应运而生.基于了解政务微博的现在和探索其发展的方向,利用层次分析法,提出了政务微博评估指标体系及模型,最后以江西政府的政务微博为例,依据评估模型,给出了排名前十的政务微博.     

考虑网络平台服务的电子零售商运营模式选择

针对供应商竞争情形下拥有网络平台的电子零售商运营模式选择问题,考虑网络平台服务对网络平台绩效的影响,研究电子零售商运营模式决策与供应商销售模式选择。本文构建了网络平台服务内生的供应商竞争模型,识别电子零售商选择转销模式或平台模式运营的条件,揭示实现帕累托改进的收益分享契约特征。研究结果显示:当产品间竞争不激烈且服务增值成本指数相对较高时,若收益分享比例小于某临界值,电子零售商偏好平台模式运营,且平台模式中网络平台服务水平高而零售价格低;当产品间竞争较激烈时,电子零售商总偏好转销模式运营;当产品市场规模不高且收益分享比例在某区域时,电子零售商和供应商都偏好平台模式。     

基于竞争模型的微博谣言信息与辟谣信息传播机理研究

微博在我国已发展成为人们日常获取信息的重要来源.在突发公共事件中,谣言通过微博的传播而迅速扩散,给网络舆论带来严重危害.以微博舆论生态研究为基础,把微博舆论中的谣言信息与辟谣信息看作动态的竞争过程,构建谣言信息与辟谣信息传播机理的Lotka-Volterra竞争模型,并从稳定条件和参数设置两个方面进行数值模拟与仿真分析.最后通过实证分析证明本研究对于消除微博谣言、引导微博舆论健康发展具有重要意义.     

基于组合赋权的村镇商铺供应商综合评价

首次研究了村镇商铺的供应商问题,构建了包含产品成本、供应商诚信度、供应商实力、供应商服务水平、产品质量和供应商发展潜力6个指标的供应商评价指标体系,借助熵权法和方差修正G1法对评价指标进行组合赋权,建立村镇商铺供应商的综合评价模型,以期能够为村镇商铺供应商综合评价问题提供一些借鉴和参考.     

SNS中影响力用户预测研究——基于不平衡数据的多种数据挖掘方法对比

识别和预测SNS中某一话题中有影响力的用户,对于营销战略的精准实施和营销成本的节约具有重要意义.已有相关研究大都聚焦于静态情境下的用户影响力识别,而对于用户影响力预测问题的探讨还非常少.因此,本研究提出了一个综合的预测研究框架,结合不同的预测指标选取策略、属性选择方法和数据采样处理流程,并应用多种分类预测算法,对微博平台的用户影响力进行了实证分析.通过多种预测效果评价指标进行验证,表明本文提出的方法在用户影响力预测上具有较高的精度,显著提高了在个人层面的预测效果,在用户影响力预测方面具有较好的应用价值.     

基于中智犹豫模糊语言优先QUALIFLEX方法的绿色供应商选择

针对绿色供应商选择过程中,评价指标数量明显超过可供选择的供应商数量且指标之间存在优序关系等特点,提出了基于中智犹豫模糊语言优先QUALIFLEX方法的绿色供应商选择方法.首先,利用中智犹豫模糊语言表征评价信息和评价权重;其次,构造优先矩阵对指标权重做精确化处理,考虑到决策者对指标的要求和指标之间的优序关系,对指标权重进行修订;然后,提出改进的中智犹豫模糊语言余弦距离测度,在此基础上借助QUALIFLEX方法确定备选供应商的最终排序;最后,利用化学制药企业选择原料供应商的案例验证了所提方法的有效性.     

基于MA-OWA和灰色评估法的企业信息集成服务供应商选择研究

为了降低企业信息集成的风险,提出了通过多数集(Majority Additive,MA)的有序加权平均(Ordered Weighted Averaging,OWA)和灰色评估法来选择集成服务供应商.构建了企业信息集成服务供应商评价指标体系.针对供应商选择问题的复杂性,提出了基于MA-OWA和灰色评估法相结合的选择决策模型.通过具体案例研究证明了整个评价指标体系及模型是可操作、实用和有效的.     

高校排名的因子分析法研究

采用因子分析法对高校排名进行了研究.文中选取了刻画高校信息的22个指标,利用SAS8软件进行因子分析,选取了三个主因子,计算出各高校在这三个因子上的得分,并以各自的方差作为权重构造综合评价模型,对全国具有研究生招生资格的大学进行了排名,并给出了前15名高校的排名信息。     

智能平台下考虑主体心理行为的医疗服务供需匹配方法

基于智能平台的新兴医疗服务模式,可以有效缓解患者“看病难”问题。本文针对智能平台下医疗服务供需双方匹配的现实问题,提出了一种考虑主体心理行为的决策方法。在该方法中,考虑了医疗服务过程中主体的期望和犹豫不确定的心理特征。首先,比较双方主体在不同指标下的期望水平和评价信息之间的差距,计算得到双方差异度,并通过集结运算分别获得了双方满意度;在此基础上,分别以医疗服务供需双方的满意度最大为目标,构建了智能平台下医疗服务供需匹配的多目标优化模型,通过模型求解可得到最优匹配结果;最后,通过算例分析说明了本文提出方法的可行性和有效性。     

基于电商平台的混合销售渠道对供应链决策的影响研究

考虑到电商平台对消费者强大的吸引力,本文建立了由供应商和平台商构成的基于电商平台混合销售的供应链模型。混合销售渠道包含直销和分销,其中平台商拥有电商平台,供应商通过电商平台进行直销,平台商分享一定的收益;而分销是指平台商从供应商处批发产品进行销售。分别建立了集中式和分散式决策模型,研究发现:随着消费者对分销渠道接受程度的提高,两种情形下直销渠道的零售价不变,分销渠道的零售价提高;分散式情形下的批发价、供应商和平台商的利润均提高;随着供应商分享收益比例的提高,两种渠道的零售价都降低,但批发价提高,供应商的利润提高,而平台商的利润下降,但供应链的总利润提高;研究得到了保证博弈双方都能从直销渠道中获利的收益分享比例范围。     

Hybrid Multi-attribute Decision Making Method of Electric Coal Procurement in Industry

Electric coal procurement is the basis of electric power production. In this paper, the problem of supplier selection is studied in multi-source procurement of electric coal. Concretely, the index system of supplier selection is presented, including the evaluation attributes of price, quantity, quality, delivery time and the reputation of supplier. Then, the problem of supplier selection is converted into a problem of hybrid multi-attribute decision making, and a projection method based on hybrid technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is presented to rank all suppliers and select winners. Its decision example is also given to implement the presented decision method and to demonstrate its effectiveness and practicality. This paper gives an effective way to the hybrid multi-attribute decision making for multi-source procurement of electric coal under fuzzy uncertain environment.     

基于产品平台的多目标供应商预选方法研究

由于供应商选择问题直接影响着企业的最终收益, 所以它对企业来说一直是一个重要的决策问题. 在以往的研究中, 供应商选择仅仅是从产品零部件的角度去考虑而没有从产品的整体出发. 此外, 传统的供应商选择都是发生在产品设计阶段之后的产品生产阶段. 然而, 在产品设计初期考虑供应商选择问题可以有效地避免合适供应商的短缺问题. 提出了一个基于产品平台的多目标供应商预选方法, 并在产品设计初期从产品整体角度建立了一个以最小化产品族外包成本、最小化产品族生产风险以及最小化供应商供应时间为多目标的优化模型, 从而有助于决策者在产品开发的早期对产品整体设计方案进行改善. 此外, 由于产品平台存在部件共享问题, 因此在优化模型中也考虑了部件共享对供应商预选结果的影响. 采用非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)对优化模型进行求解, 并通过实际案例来说明提出的优化方法以及求解算法的合理性和有效性.     

基于ANP-RBF神经网络的化工行业绿色供应商选择

基于绿色供应链理念,提出了化工行业绿色供应商选择的特色指标,构建了化工行业绿色供应商选择的ANP-RBF神经网络模型。通过ANP确定各指标权重,再结合RBF神经网络,从训练数据中提取隐含的知识和规律,能够方便地用于新供应商的选择。该模型求解算法为增量算法,具有很好的可扩展性,从而增加了评价的动态性。算例验证结果表明,将ANP-RBF神经网络模型用于化工行业绿色供应商的选择具有较强的实用性。     

An integrated FCM and fuzzy soft set for supplier selection problem based on risk evaluation

Supplier selection problem, considered as a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, is one of the most important issues for firms. Lots of literatures about it have been emitted since 1960s. However, research on supplier selection under operational risks is limited. What’s more, the criteria used by most of them are independent, which usually does not correspond with the real world. Although the analytic network process (ANP) has been proposed to deal with the problems above, several problems make the method impractical. This study first integrates the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and fuzzy soft set model for solving the supplier selection problem. This method not only considers the dependent and feedback effect among criteria, but also considers the uncertainties on decision making process. Finally, a case study of supplier selection considering risk factors is given to demonstrate the proposed method’s effectiveness.     

An a posteriori decision support methodology for solving the multi-criteria supplier selection problem

This research presents a novel, state-of-the-art methodology for solving a multi-criteria supplier selection problem considering risk and sustainability. It combines multi-objective optimization with the analytic network process to take into account sustainability requirements of a supplier portfolio configuration. To integrate ‘risk’ into the supplier selection problem, we develop a multi-objective optimization model based on the investment portfolio theory introduced by Markowitz. The proposed model is a non-standard portfolio selection problem with four objectives: (1) minimizing the purchasing costs, (2) selecting the supplier portfolio with the highest logistics service, (3) minimizing the supply risk, and (4) ordering as much as possible from those suppliers with outstanding sustainability performance. The optimization model, which has three linear and one quadratic objective function, is solved by an algorithm that analytically computes a set of efficient solutions and provides graphical decision support through a visualization of the complete and exactly-computed Pareto front (a posteriori approach). The possibility of computing all Pareto-optimal supplier portfolios is beneficial for decision makers as they can compare all optimal solutions at once, identify the trade-offs between the criteria, and study how the different objectives of supplier portfolio configuration may be balanced to finally choose the composition that satisfies the purchasing company's strategy best. The approach has been applied to a real-world supplier portfolio configuration case to demonstrate its applicability and to analyze how the consideration of sustainability requirements may affect the traditional supplier selection and purchasing goals in a real-life setting.     

制造商为小本经营情况下零售商购货机制的合同设计

考虑零售商采用逆向拍卖方式到个小本经营的制造商处购货,研究供应链中如何设计合同使得零售商单位时间的支出费用最低,采用最优控制的方法和委托代理理论中的显示原理,得出零售商的最优购货机制,同时给出两个简单的购货机制——打分拍卖机制和固定生产时间下的价格拍卖。结果表明由制造商承担的制造费用越多,零售商的进货价格越高;在简单机制下,制造商承担制造费用的大小并不影响最优生产率的制定。     

Multisourcing suppliers selection in service outsourcing

Multisourcing suppliers selection in service outsourcing involves selecting a supplier portfolio with a reasonable number of suppliers and better performance to cover aspiration levels of criteria. It is a specific weighted matching problem with new challenges. This paper proposes a decision method for solving this problem. In the proposed method, different formats of preference information, including numerical values, interval numbers and linguistic variables, are used to express alternative ratings. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution is extended to aggregate the three formats of preference information. A bi-objective 0–1 linear programming model using the aggregated information is built to select a desired supplier portfolio, in which the objectives of minimization of suppliers number and maximization of supplier performance are involved. To solve this model, we transform it into an equivalent, and then an exact multi-objective branch-and-bound algorithm is developed to obtain Pareto-optimal solutions. In addition, a real case of an insurance company is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method.