Goodness-of-fit test for switching diffusion

We consider two Cramér–von Mises goodness-of-fit tests for hypotheses that the observed diffusion process has sign-type trend coefficient based on empirical distribution function and empirical density function. It is shown that the limit distributions of the proposed tests statistics are defined by the integral type functionals of continuous Gaussian processes. We study the behavior of these statistics under the alternative hypothesis and we prove that the tests are consistent. We provide the Karhunen-Loève expansion on \mathbbR{\mathbb{R}} of the corresponding limiting processes and we show that the eigenfunctions in these expansions have expressions in term of Bessel functions.     

On the Cramér–von Mises test with parametric hypothesis for poisson processes

The problem of the goodness of-fit testing for inhomogeneous Poisson process with parametric basic hypothesis is considered. A test statistic of the Cramér–von Mises type with parameter replaced by the maximum likelihood estimator is proposed and its asymptotic behavior is studied. It is shown that in the case of shift parameter, the limit distribution of the test statistics (under hypothesis) does not depend on the true value of this parameter.     

Goodness of fit test for ergodic diffusion processes

A goodness of fit test for the drift coefficient of an ergodic diffusion process is presented. The test is based on the score marked empirical process. The weak convergence of the proposed test statistic is studied under the null hypothesis and it is proved that the limit process is a continuous Gaussian process. The structure of its covariance function allows to calculate the limit distribution and it turns out that it is a function of a standard Brownian motion and so exact rejection regions can be constructed. The proposed test is asymptotically distribution free and it is consistent under any simple fixed alternative.     

Martingale expansion in mixed normal limit

The quasi-likelihood estimator and the Bayesian type estimator of the volatility parameter are in general asymptotically mixed normal. In case the limit is normal, the asymptotic expansion was derived by Yoshida [28] as an application of the martingale expansion. The expansion for the asymptotically mixed normal distribution is then indispensable to develop the higher-order approximation and inference for the volatility. The classical approaches in limit theorems, where the limit is a process with independent increments or a simple mixture, do not work. We present asymptotic expansion of a martingale with asymptotically mixed normal distribution. The expansion formula is expressed by the adjoint of a random symbol with coefficients described by the Malliavin calculus, differently from the standard invariance principle. Applications to a quadratic form of a diffusion process (“realized volatility”) are discussed.     

A multivariate empirical characteristic function test of independence with normal marginals

This paper proposes a semi-parametric test of independence (or serial independence) between marginal vectors each of which is normally distributed but without assuming the joint normality of these marginal vectors. The test statistic is a Cramér–von Mises functional of a process defined from the empirical characteristic function. This process is defined similarly as the process of Ghoudi et al. [J. Multivariate Anal. 79 (2001) 191] built from the empirical distribution function and used to test for independence between univariate marginal variables. The test statistic can be represented as a V-statistic. It is consistent to detect any form of dependence. The weak convergence of the process is derived. The asymptotic distribution of the Cramér–von Mises functionals is approximated by the Cornish–Fisher expansion using a recursive formula for cumulants and inversion of the characteristic function with numerical evaluation of the eigenvalues. The test statistic is finally compared with Wilks statistic for testing the parametric hypothesis of independence in the one-way MANOVA model with random effects.     

A wavelet analysis of the Rosenblatt process: Chaos expansion and estimation of the self-similarity parameter

By using chaos expansion into multiple stochastic integrals, we make a wavelet analysis of two self-similar stochastic processes: the fractional Brownian motion and the Rosenblatt process. We study the asymptotic behavior of the statistic based on the wavelet coefficients of these processes. Basically, when applied to a non-Gaussian process (such as the Rosenblatt process) this statistic satisfies a non-central limit theorem even when we increase the number of vanishing moments of the wavelet function. We apply our limit theorems to construct estimators for the self-similarity index and we illustrate our results by simulations.     

线性常微分方程参数稳定性的统计推断

对具有随机误差的观测数据, 讨论了常系数线性常微分方程参数稳定性的统计推断问题. 通过残差项的Karhunen-Loeve 分解, 给出了变点检验步骤及其在原假设下的极限分布. 在对立假设下定义了变点的估计, 证明了检验以及估计的一致性. 对常系数二阶常微分方程进行了统计模拟, 结果表明原假设下的极限分布是对真实分布非常好的近似; 对立假设下, 即使输入函数的频率存在0.75% 的变化, 上述检验也能以大概率拒绝原假设. 最后利用上述方法研究了英国中部地区的气温数据, 揭示了数据一些新的特点.     

An Analytic Expression for the Distribution of the Generalized Shiryaev–Roberts Diffusion

We consider the quickest change-point detection problem where the aim is to detect the onset of a pre-specified drift in “live”-monitored standard Brownian motion; the change-point is assumed unknown (nonrandom). The topic of interest is the distribution of the Generalized Shryaev–Roberts (GSR) detection statistic set up to “sense” the presence of the drift. Specifically, we derive a closed-form formula for the transition probability density function (pdf) of the time-homogeneous Markov diffusion process generated by the GSR statistic when the Brownian motion under surveillance is “drift-free”, i.e., in the pre-change regime; the GSR statistic’s (deterministic) nonnegative headstart is assumed arbitrarily given. The transition pdf formula is found analytically, through direct solution of the respective Kolmogorov forward equation via the Fourier spectral method to achieve separation of the spacial and temporal variables. The obtained result generalizes the well-known formula for the (pre-change) stationary distribution of the GSR statistic: the latter’s stationary distribution is the temporal limit of the distribution sought in this work. To conclude, we exploit the obtained formula numerically and briefly study the pre-change behavior of the GSR statistic versus three factors: (a) drift-shift magnitude, (b) time, and (c) the GSR statistic’s headstart.     

Change point testing for the drift parameters of a periodic mean reversion process

In this paper we investigate the problem of detecting a change in the drift parameters of a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process which is defined as the solution of $$\begin{aligned} dX_t=(L(t)-\alpha X_t) dt + \sigma dB_t \end{aligned}$$ and which is observed in continuous time. We derive an explicit representation of the generalized likelihood ratio test statistic assuming that the mean reversion function $L(t)$ is a finite linear combination of known basis functions. In the case of a periodic mean reversion function, we determine the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis.     

Gevrey properties of the asymptotic critical wave speed in a family of scalar reaction–diffusion equations

We consider front propagation in a family of scalar reaction–diffusion equations in the asymptotic limit where the polynomial degree of the potential function tends to infinity. We investigate the Gevrey properties of the corresponding critical propagation speed, proving that the formal series expansion for that speed is Gevrey-1 with respect to the inverse of the degree. Moreover, we discuss the question of optimal truncation. Finally, we present a reliable numerical algorithm for evaluating the coefficients in the expansion with arbitrary precision and to any desired order, and we illustrate that algorithm by calculating explicitly the first ten coefficients. Our analysis builds on results obtained previously in [F. Dumortier, N. Popovi?, T.J. Kaper, The asymptotic critical wave speed in a family of scalar reaction–diffusion equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 326 (2) (2007) 1007–1023], and makes use of the blow-up technique in combination with geometric singular perturbation theory and complex analysis, while the numerical evaluation of the coefficients in the expansion for the critical speed is based on rigorous interval arithmetic.     

Adaptive Bayes type estimators of ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations

We consider adaptive Bayesian estimation of both drift and diffusion coefficient parameters for ergodic multidimensional diffusion processes based on sampled data. Under a general condition on the discretization step of the sampled data, three kinds of adaptive Bayes type estimators are proposed by applying adaptive maximum likelihood type methods of Uchida and Yoshida (Stoch Process Appl 122:2885–2924, 2012) to Bayesian procedures. We show asymptotic normality and convergence of moments for the adaptive Bayes type estimators by means of the Ibragimov–Has’minskii–Kutoyants program together with the polynomial type large deviation inequality for the statistical random field.     

Non-homogeneous space-time fractional Poisson processes

The space-time fractional Poisson process (STFPP), defined by Orsingher and Poilto (2012), is a generalization of the time fractional Poisson process (TFPP) and the space fractional Poisson process (SFPP). We study the fractional generalization of the non-homogeneous Poisson process and call it the non-homogeneous space-time fractional Poisson process (NHSTFPP). We compute their pmf and generating function and investigate the associated differential equation. The limit theorems for the NHSTFPP process are studied. We study the distributional properties, the asymptotic expansion of the correlation function of the non-homogeneous time fractional Poisson process (NHTFPP) and subsequently investigate the long-range dependence (LRD) property of a special NHTFPP. We investigate the limit theorem for the fractional non-homogeneous Poisson process (FNHPP) studied by Leonenko et al. (2014). Finally, we present some simulated sample paths of the NHSTFPP process.     

On asymptotically distribution free tests with parametric hypothesis for ergodic diffusion processes

We consider the problem of the construction of the asymptotically distribution free test by the observations of ergodic diffusion process. It is supposed that under the basic hypothesis the trend coefficient depends on a finite-dimensional parameter and we study the Cramér-von Mises type statistics. The underlying statistics depends on the deviation of the local time estimator from the invariant density with parameter replaced by the maximum likelihood estimator. We propose a linear transformation which yields the convergence of the test statistics to an integral of the Wiener process. Therefore the test based on this statistics is asymptotically distribution free.     

Convergence analysis of a global optimization algorithm using stochastic differential equations

We establish the convergence of a stochastic global optimization algorithm for general non-convex, smooth functions. The algorithm follows the trajectory of an appropriately defined stochastic differential equation (SDE). In order to achieve feasibility of the trajectory we introduce information from the Lagrange multipliers into the SDE. The analysis is performed in two steps. We first give a characterization of a probability measure (Π) that is defined on the set of global minima of the problem. We then study the transition density associated with the augmented diffusion process and show that its weak limit is given by Π.     

From restoration by topological gradient to medical image segmentation via an asymptotic expansion

The aim of this article is to present an application of the topological asymptotic expansion to the medical image segmentation problem. We first recall the classical variational of the image restoration problem, and its resolution by topological asymptotic analysis in which the identification of the diffusion coefficient can be seen as an inverse conductivity problem. The conductivity is set either to a small positive coefficient (on the edge set), or to its inverse (elsewhere). In this paper a technique based on a power series expansion of the solution to the image restoration problem with respect to this small coefficient is introduced. By considering the limit when this coefficient goes to zero, we obtain a segmented image, but some numerical issues do not allow a too small coefficient. The idea is to use the series expansion to approximate the asymptotic solution with several solutions corresponding to positive (larger than a threshold) conductivity coefficients via a quadrature formula. We illustrate this approach with some numerical results on medical images.     

Hypothesis tests for high-dimensional covariance structures

We consider hypothesis testing for high-dimensional covariance structures in which the covariance matrix is a (i) scaled identity matrix, (ii) diagonal matrix, or (iii) intraclass covariance matrix. Our purpose is to systematically establish a nonparametric approach for testing the high-dimensional covariance structures (i)–(iii). We produce a new common test statistic for each covariance structure and show that the test statistic is an unbiased estimator of its corresponding test parameter. We prove that the test statistic establishes the asymptotic normality. We propose a new test procedure for (i)–(iii) and evaluate its asymptotic size and power theoretically when both the dimension and sample size increase. We investigate the performance of the proposed test procedure in simulations. As an application of testing the covariance structures, we give a test procedure to identify an eigenvector. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed test procedure by using a microarray data set.

     

Optimal reinsurance under the mean–variance premium principle to minimize the probability of ruin

We consider the problem of minimizing the probability of ruin by purchasing reinsurance whose premium is computed according to the mean–variance premium principle, a combination of the expected-value and variance premium principles. We derive closed-form expressions of the optimal reinsurance strategy and the corresponding minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation of the classical Cramér–Lundberg risk process perturbed by a diffusion. We find an explicit expression for the reinsurance strategy that maximizes the adjustment coefficient for the classical risk process perturbed by a diffusion. Also, for this risk process, we use stochastic Perron’s method to prove that the minimum probability of ruin is the unique viscosity solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation with appropriate boundary conditions. Finally, we prove that, under an appropriate scaling of the classical risk process, the minimum probability of ruin converges to the minimum probability of ruin under the diffusion approximation.     

Convergence of a queueing system in heavy traffic with general patience-time distributions

We analyze a sequence of single-server queueing systems with impatient customers in heavy traffic. Our state process is the offered waiting time, and the customer arrival process has a state dependent intensity. Service times and customer patient-times are independent; i.i.d. with general distributions subject to mild constraints. We establish the heavy traffic approximation for the scaled offered waiting time process and obtain a diffusion process as the heavy traffic limit. The drift coefficient of this limiting diffusion is influenced by the sequence of patience-time distributions in a non-linear fashion. We also establish an asymptotic relationship between the scaled version of offered waiting time and queue-length. As a consequence, we obtain the heavy traffic limit of the scaled queue-length. We introduce an infinite-horizon discounted cost functional whose running cost depends on the offered waiting time and server idle time processes. Under mild assumptions, we show that the expected value of this cost functional for the n-th system converges to that of the limiting diffusion process as n tends to infinity.     

Efficient Density Estimation for Ergodic Diffusion Processes

The problem of asymptotically efficient estimation of the density of invariant measure of a diffusion process is considered. The efficient estimator is defined with the help of the minimax lower bound on the risk of all estimators. We show that the local–time and kernel–type estimators are asymptotically efficient for the loss functions with polynomial majorants. The asymptotic behavior of a wide class of unbiased estimators with the same limit variances is also discussed. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.