A class of transformation rate models for recurrent event data

Recurrent event data frequently occur in longitudinal studies, and it is often of interest to estimate the effects of covariates on the recurrent event rate. This paper considers a class of semiparametric transformation rate models for recurrent event data, which uses an additive Aalen model as its covariate dependent baseline. The new models are flexible in that they allow for both additive and multiplicative covariate effects, and some covariate effects are allowed to be nonparametric and time-varying. An estimating procedure is proposed for parameter estimation, and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulation studies and a real data analysis demonstrate that the proposed method performs well and is appropriate for practical use.     

Regression analysis of multivariate recurrent event data with time-varying covariate effects

Recurrent event data occur in many fields and many approaches have been proposed for their analyses (Andersen et al. (1993) [1]; Cook and Lawless (2007) [3]). However, most of the available methods allow only time-independent covariate effects, and sometimes this may not be true. In this paper, we consider regression analysis of multivariate recurrent event data in which some covariate effects may be time-dependent. For the problem, we employ the marginal modeling approach and, especially, estimating equation-based inference procedures are developed. Both asymptotic and finite-sample properties of the proposed estimates are established and an illustrative example is provided.     

A class of additive-accelerated means regression models for recurrent event data

In this article, we propose a class of additive-accelerated means regression models for analyzing recurrent event data. The class includes the proportional means model, the additive rates model, the accelerated failure time model, the accelerated rates model and the additive-accelerated rate model as special cases. The new model offers great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean functions of counting processes while leaving the stochastic structure completely unspecified. For the inference on the model parameters, estimating equation approaches are derived and asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a technique is provided for model checking. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed methods is examined through Monte Carlo simulation studies, and an application to a bladder cancer study is illustrated.     

A general additive-multiplicative rates model for recurrent event data

In this article, we propose a general additive-multiplicative rates model for recurrent event data. The proposed model includes the additive rates and multiplicative rates models as special cases. For the inference on the model parameters, estimating equation approaches are developed, and asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established through modern empirical process theory. In addition, an illustration with multiple-infection data from a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is pr...     

Partially time-varying coefficient linear rate model for the recurrent event data

In [13], Schaubel et al. proposed a semiparametric partially linear rate model for the statistical analysis of recurrent event data. But they only considered the model with time-independent covariate effects. In this paper, rate function of the recurrent event is modeled by a semipaxametric partially linear function which can include the time-varying effects. We propose the method of generalized estimating equations to make inferences about both the time-varying effects and time-independent effects. The large sample properties are established, while extensive simulation studies are carried out to examine the proposed procedures. At last, we apply the procedures to the well-known bladder cancer study.     

Smoothing estimation of rate function for recurrent event data with informative censoring

This paper proposes kernel estimation of the occurrence rate function for recurrent event data with informative censoring. An informative censoring model is considered with assumptions made on the joint distribution of the recurrent event process and the censoring time without modeling the censoring distribution. Under the validity of the informative censoring model, we also show that an estimator based on the assumption of independent censoring becomes inappropriate and is generally asymptotically biased. To investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, the explicit form of its asymptotic mean squared risk and the asymptotic normality are derived. Meanwhile, the empirical consistent smoothing estimator for the variance function of the estimator is suggested. The performance of the estimators are also studied through Monte Carlo simulations. An epidemiological example of intravenous drug user data is used to show the influence of informative censoring in the estimation of the occurrence rate functions for inpatient cares over time.     

A Schur transformation for functions in a general class of domains

In this paper we present a framework in which the Schur transformation and the basic interpolation problem for generalized Schur functions, generalized Nevanlinna functions and the like can be studied in a unified way. The basic object is a general class of functions for which a certain kernel has a finite number of negative squares. The results are based on and generalize those in previous papers of the first three authors on the Schur transformation in an indefinite setting.     

A semiparametric additive rates model for clustered recurrent event data

Recurrent event data often arises in biomedical studies, and individuals within a cluster might not be independent. We propose a semiparametric additive rates model for clustered recurrent event data, wherein the covariates are assumed to add to the unspecified baseline rate. For the inference on the model parameters, estimating equation approaches are developed, and both large and finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are established.     

Slow recurrent regimes for a class of one-dimensional stochastic growth models

We classify the possible behaviors of a class of one-dimensional stochastic recurrent growth models. In our main result, we obtain nearly optimal bounds for the tail of hitting times of some compact sets. If the process is an aperiodic irreducible Markov chain, we determine whether it is null recurrent or positive recurrent and in the latter case, we obtain a subgeometric convergence of its transition kernel to its invariant measure. We apply our results in particular to state-dependent Galton–Watson processes and we give precise estimates of the tail of the extinction time.     

Estimation of a multivariate Box-Cox transformation to elliptical symmetry via the empirical characteristic function

Let X=(X ₁, X ₂,..., X _d ) ^t be a random vector of positive entries, such that for some =(₁,₂,..., _d ) ^t , the vector X ⁽⁾ defined by % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% GaamiwamaaDaaaleaamiaadMgaaSqaaWGaaiikaiabeU7aSnaaBaaa% baGaamyAaiaacMcaaeqaaaaakiabg2da9iaacIcadaWcgaqaaiaadI% fadaqhaaWcbaadcaWGPbaaleaamiabeU7aSnaaBaaabaGaamyAaaqa% baaaaOGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaacMcaaeaacqaH7oaBdaWgaaWcbaadca% WGPbGaaiilaaWcbeaakiaadMgacqGH9aqpcaaIXaGaeSOjGSKaaiil% aiaadsgaaaaaaa!53BB!\[X_i^{(\lambda _{i)} } = ({{X_i^{\lambda _i } - 1)} \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{X_i^{\lambda _i } - 1)} {\lambda _{i,} i = 1 \ldots ,d}}} \right. \kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {\lambda _{i,} i = 1 \ldots ,d}}\]is elliptically symmetric. We describe a procedure based on the multivariate empirical characteristic function for estimating the _i's. Asymptotic results regarding consistency of the estimators are given and we evaluate their performance in simulated data. In a one-dimensional setting, comparisons are made with other available transformations to symmetry.Adolfo Quiroz and Miguel Nakamura's research was partially supported by CONACYT (Mexico) grants numbers 1858E9219 and 4224E9405, while Dr. Quiroz was visiting Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas at Guanajuato, Mexico.     

Joint test for functional forms and heteroscedasticity with property sales and valuation data

This paper proposes an approach to jointly testing functional forms and heteroscedasticity within the general Box-Cox transformation framework. The approach is then applied to decide empirically the character of the residuals from regressions of properties' open market prices on their valuation.     

A real-time monitoring approach for bivariate event data

Early detection of changes in the frequency of events is an important task in many fields, such as disease surveillance, monitoring of high-quality processes, reliability monitoring, and public health. This article focuses on detecting changes in multivariate event data by monitoring the time-between-events (TBE). Existing multivariate TBE charts are limited because they only signal after an event occurred for each of the individual processes. This results in delays (i.e., long time-to-signal), especially when we are interested in detecting a change in one or a few processes with different rates. We propose a bivariate TBE chart, which can signal in real-time. We derive analytical expressions for the control limits and average time-to-signal performance, conduct a performance evaluation and compare our chart to an existing method. Our findings showed that our method is an effective approach for monitoring bivariate TBE data and has better detection ability than the existing method under transient shifts and is more generally applicable. A significant benefit of our method is that it signals in real-time and that the control limits are based on analytical expressions. The proposed method is implemented on two real-life datasets from reliability and health surveillance.     

Global attractivity for a class of delayed discrete SIRS epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence

This paper deals with global dynamics of a class of delayed discrete susceptible‐infected‐recovered (SIR) compartmental epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence rate and disease‐induced mortality, which are proposed from the Mickens nonstandard discretization of the corresponding delayed continuous epidemic models. By constructing discrete Lyapunov functions, the sufficient conditions for the global attractivity of the disease‐free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are established. Under some additional assumptions (see (H₃) in Section 3 and (H₄) in Section 4 ), it is shown that the disease‐free equilibrium is globally attractive when basic reproduction number , and when , there is a unique endemic equilibrium, which is globally attractive. Furthermore, some special cases are discussed, and as corollaries, several idiographic results are established. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

带相依终止事件的复发事件数据的可加可乘比率模型

本文对带相依终止事件的复发事件数据提出了一个联合建模分析方法,用一个带脆弱变量的可加可乘比率模型来刻画复发事件过程,还用带脆弱变量的Cox风险率模型来刻画终止事件过程,而且这两个过程的相依性由脆弱变量来刻画.我们利用估计方程的方法,对模型参数进行了估计,给出了所得估计的渐近性质.同时,通过数值模拟分析验证了估计的渐近性质.最后,利用该方法分析了弗吉尼亚大学慢性心脏病病人医疗诊费数据.     

An extended event graph-based modelling method for parallel and distributed discrete-event simulation

The developing logical process (LP)-based parallel and distributed discrete-event simulation (PDES) in the existing PDES programming environments is a difficult and time-consuming process. Event graph is a simple and powerful modelling formalism of discrete-event simulation, whereas this formalism does not support PDES. This article proposes an extension of the event graph to consider the communication of LPs via the events sent, which is called ‘extended event graph (EEG)’, and proposes an EEG-based modelling method for PDES. This modelling method shifts the focus of PDES development from writing code to building models, and the system implementation can be automatically and directly generated from EEG model. The experimental results show that EEG models can successfully execute in the parallel simulator, and this framework can effectively improve the PDES modelling activities.     

Efficiency comparison between mean and log-rank tests for recurrent event time data

Recurrent event time data are common in biomedical follow-up studies, in which a study subject may experience repeated occurrences of an event of interest. In this paper, we evaluate two popular nonparametric tests for recurrent event time data in terms of their relative efficiency. One is the log-rank test for classical survival data and the other a more recently developed nonparametric test based on comparing mean recurrent rates. We show analytically that, somewhat surprisingly, the log-rank test that only makes use of time to the first occurrence could be more efficient than the test for mean occurrence rates that makes use of all available recurrence times, provided that subject-to-subject variation of recurrence times is large. Explicit formula are derived for asymptotic relative efficiencies under the frailty model. The findings are demonstrated via extensive simulations. This work was supported by US National Science Foundation (Grant No. DMS-0504269)     

Effciency comparison between mean and log-rank tests for recurrent event time data

Recurrent event time data are common in biomedical follow-up studies, in which a study subject may experience repeated occurrences of an event of interest. In this paper, we evaluate two popular nonparametric tests for recurrent event time data in terms of their relative effciency. One is the log-rank test for classical survival data and the other a more recently developed nonparametric test based on comparing mean recurrent rates. We show analytically that, somewhat surprisingly, the log-rank test that onl...     

A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction

Forecasting methods are routinely employed to predict the outcome of competitive events (CEs) and to shed light on the factors that influence participants’ winning prospects (e.g., in sports events, political elections). Combining statistical models’ forecasts, shown to be highly successful in other settings, has been neglected in CE prediction. Two particular difficulties arise when developing model-based composite forecasts of CE outcomes: the intensity of rivalry among contestants, and the strength/diversity trade-off among individual models. To overcome these challenges we propose a range of surrogate measures of event outcome to construct a heterogeneous set of base forecasts. To effectively extract the complementary information concealed within these predictions, we develop a novel pooling mechanism which accounts for competition among contestants: a stacking paradigm integrating conditional logit regression and log-likelihood-ratio-based forecast selection. Empirical results using data related to horseracing events demonstrate that: (i) base model strength and diversity are important when combining model-based predictions for CEs; (ii) average-based pooling, commonly employed elsewhere, may not be appropriate for CEs (because average-based pooling exclusively focuses on strength); and (iii) the proposed stacking ensemble provides statistically and economically accurate forecasts. These results have important implications for regulators of betting markets associated with CEs and in particular for the accurate assessment of market efficiency.