基于随机采样模糊聚类和卡尔曼滤波方法的模糊辨识

提出一种新的基于模糊聚类和卡尔曼滤波方法的模糊辨识算法 .该方法是基于快速模糊聚类 ,计算给定样本在各类中的隶属度 ,并利用卡尔曼滤波方法辨识模糊模型的结论参数 .整个辨识过程与一般的模糊聚类方法 [1 ]相比 ,需要的 CPU时间大大缩短 .最后通过仿真实例验证了该方法的有效性 .     

识别低效循环井的模糊综合评判法及Matlab实现

我国大部分高渗透油田已进入高含水开发期,注入水低效、无效循环加剧.为改善注水开发效果,需要对低效无效循环井采取调剖堵水措施,因此识别低效循环井的方法尤为重要.依据模糊数学基本理论,结合油水井的静态指标和动态指标以及各项指标的权重建立了识别低效循环井的模糊综合评判数学模型.应用Matlab软件对评判模型进行求解,通过实例分析表明,评价方法简便、实用.     

多产品模糊存储模型及算法

提出了一个需求为模糊数,产品存储空间有模糊约束的多产品EOQ模型,并采用两种方法进行求解.一种是结合模糊仿真技术和遗传算法的混合算法进行求解,另一种是将模糊模型转化为清晰模型,再用算法求解.最后举出具体数值实例,对两种方法的求解结果进行比较.     

DELPHI法在直觉模糊综合评价中的应用研究

针对直觉模糊综合评价中直觉模糊数集的取值方法问题,采用改进评价指标的评语等级划分,并结合Delphi法进行打分,来得出直觉模糊综合评价中的直觉模糊数集.最后利用该方法进行了实例分析.     

梯形模糊数直觉模糊Bonferroni平均算子及其应用

本文研究决策信息为梯形模糊数直觉模糊数(TFNIFN)且属性间存在相互关联的多属性群决策(MAGDM)问题,提出一种基于梯形模糊数直觉模糊加权Bonferroni平均(TFNIFWBM)算子的决策方法.首先,介绍了TFNIFN的概念和运算法则,基于这些运算法则和Bonferroni平均(Bonferroni mean,BM)算子,定义了梯形模糊数直觉模糊Bonferroni平均算子和TFNIFWBM算子.然后,研究了这些算子的一些性质,建立基于TFNIFWBM算子的多属性群决策模型,结合排序方法进行决策.最后,将该方法应用在MAGDM中,算例结果表明了该方法的有效性与可行性.     

三角模糊数直觉模糊PA算子及其应用

针对决策信息为三角模糊数直觉模糊数（TFNIFN）且属性间存在相互关联的多属性群决策（MAGDM）问题,提出了一种基于三角模糊数直觉模糊PA （TFNIFPA）算子的决策方法.首先,基于TFNIFN的运算法则和PA （Power Average）算子,定义了TFNIFPA算子.然后,研究了该算子的一些性质,建立基于TFNIFPA算子的MAGDM模型,结合排序方法进行决策.最后通过MAGDM算例验证了该算子的有效性与可行性.     

模糊多属性格序决策的冗余指标的消除策略

在模糊多属性决策中,属性权重的确定对于整个评价工作有十分重要的意义.如果评价属性数量过多,指标间的相关性将影响评价的科学性和公平性.本文建立了评价值为梯形模糊数的"相似"概念和模糊相似评价模型,并基于格序决策的理论,得到了一种新的模糊格序决策方法.结合传统的TOPSIS方法,通过计算将各方案的属性值的中心进行加权后与正负理想中心的贴近度的大小,实现备选方案的格序化排序.实例分析的结果表明:方法合理、易行.     

基于模糊数直觉模糊PG算子的多属性决策方法

针对决策信息为三角模糊数直觉模糊数(TFNIFN)且属性间存在相互关联的多属性群决策(MAGDM)问题,提出了一种基于三角模糊数直觉模糊PG(TFNIFPG)算子的决策方法.首先,基于TFNIFN的运算法则和PG(Power Geometric)算子,定义了TFNIFPG算子.然后,研究了该算子的一些性质,建立基于TFNIFPG算子的MAGDM模型,结合排序方法进行决策.最后通过某项目投资算例验证了该算子的有效性与可行性.     

基于隶属模糊二元语义的群决策方法

提出(隶属)模糊二元语义的描述方法,并建立其与区间模糊数之间的联系,从而构造区间偏好关系矩阵用于解决群决策问题.这种方法结合了模糊二元语义描述和区间计算的优点.最后给出具体实例予以说明.     

作物生态适宜性模糊综合评判中权重矩阵量化方法及其应用

在作物生态适宜性模糊综合判评中 ,不同生态类型的生态因子组合状态、各生态因子的重要性、主导限制性因子不同 ,需要把权重向量扩展、改造为模糊权重矩阵 .本文根据系统结构决定系统功能的原理及边际生产力理论 ,探索出模糊权重矩阵的量化处理方法 .通过对陕南山区猕猴桃生态适宜性综合评判的具体应用 ,表明该方法能灵敏反映短线因子的限制性作用 ,符合实际状况 ,结论可靠 .     

Group decision making using fuzzy sets theory for evaluating the rate of aggregative risk in software development

The purpose of this study is not only to build a group decision making structure model of risk in software development but also to propose two algorithms to tackle the rate of aggregative risk in a fuzzy environment by fuzzy sets theory during any phase of the life cycle. While evaluating the rate of aggregative risk, one may adjust or improve the weights or grades of the factors until she/he can accept it. Moreover, our result will be more objective and unbiased since it is generated by a group of evaluators.     

A novel two-phase group decision making approach for construction project selection in a fuzzy environment

This paper considers a construction project problem under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment and proposes a new two-phase group decision making (GDM) approach. This approach integrates a modified analytic network process (ANP) and an improved compromise ranking method, known as VIKOR. To take uncertainty and risk into account, a new decision making approach is presented with multiple fuzzy information by a group of experts, and a risk attitude for each expert is incorporated that can be expressed linguistically. First, a modified fuzzy ANP method is introduced to address the problem of dependence as well as feedback among conflicting criteria and to determine their relative importance. Then, a fuzzy VIKOR method is extended to rank potential projects on the basis of their overall performance. An illustrative example from the literature is provided for the construction project problem to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach. The computational results show that the proposed two-phase GDM approach is suitable to cope with imprecision and subjectivity for the complicated decision making problem. Finally, the associated results of the proposed approach with risk attitudes and without risk attitudes are compared with the results reported by Cheng and Li [1], and the merits are highlighted.     

基于SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型及仿真研究

工程建设过程、从业人员专业水平和信息存在较为突出的碎片化现象,导致了工程质量风险的传递。为揭示平行承发包模式下建设工程质量风险的传递效应和放大效应,利用传染病模型中的动力学原理,综合考虑工程质量风险传递的影响因素,构建了SEIRS的建设工程质量风险传递模型。仿真研究结果表明,建设工程在质量风险传递过程中存在阈值;质量风险传递阈值h1时,在质量风险传递阻碍因素的作用下,风险逐步衰减直至消失;质量风险传递阈值h<1时,在质量风险传递促进因素的作用下,风险会稳定存在于建设工程中,甚至危害工程的整体质量。研究结论为政府实现由直接监管向间接监管、由事前监管向事中事后监管的转变等提供理论支撑。     

Fuzzy logic modifications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a measurement methodology based on pair-wise comparisons that relies on judgment to derive priority scales. During its implementation, one constructs hierarchies, then makes judgments or performs measurements on pairs of elements with respect to a criterion to derive preference scales, which are then synthesized throughout the structure to select the preferred alternative.One of the areas where the AHP finds application is in the subjective phases of risk assessment (RA), where it is used to structure and prioritize diverse risk factors, including the judgments of experts. Since fuzzy logic (FL) has been shown to be an effective tool for accommodating human experts and their communication of linguistic variables, there has been research aimed at modeling the fuzziness in the AHP (FAHP), and recently the focus of some of that modeling has been with respect to RA.The literature discusses more than one FAHP model, which raises the question as to which are the prominent models and what are their characteristics. In response to this question, we examine three of the most influential FAHP models. The article proceeds as follows. It begins with a brief overview of the AHP and its limitations when confronted with a fuzzy environment. This is followed by a discussion of FL modifications of the AHP. A RA-based likelihood score example is used throughout. The article ends with a commentary on the findings.     

施工项目中设计风险元传递模型研究

针对设计变更对项目实施的影响,本文将影响施工项目的设计变更原因称为项目的设计风险元,基于广义项目风险元传递理论建立系统动力学模型,动态研究设计风险元传递过程。通过模型模拟分析不同时间、不同程度的设计风险元对项目工期和项目费用影响程度,当设计风险元发生后,设计审批及设计过程将影响项目工期;受施工工序影响设计风险元造成实际施工速度不饱和,使得施工效率低下形成窝工;由于设计风险元导致的返工造成施工项目的工期延误和成本超支。此模型为风险管理者或项目管理者在设计风险管理方面提供了有力依据。     

基于区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集的工程项目风险辨识和评价

针对具有信息灰性、模糊性及语言描述性的工程项目风险问题,定义区间灰色区间直觉不确定语言集用于表达这些特征,结合多属性群决策理论和C-OWA算子,构建工程项目风险辨识和风险评价模型,以南京市纬三路过江隧道为例验证所建模型的可行性。结果表明,该模型可以利用区间灰度、区间隶属度和区间非隶属度以及不确定语言变量,更全面、更真实地表达工程项目的实际信息,得到更符合工程实际的风险辨识和评价结果,帮助项目管理者更准确地预知主要风险因素和风险状态。     

A proposed model for measuring the aggregative risk degree of implementing an RFID digital campus system with the consistent fuzzy preference relations

An RFID digital campus system implementation can enhance convenience in teaching environment, teaching quality and administrative efficiency. When administrators decide to implement an RFID digital campus system, they often encounter unexpected internal and external risk factors and difficulties. Therefore, this study proposes a novel analytic hierarchy model for helping administrators to identify the critical risk factors affecting the RFID digital campus system initiation, and measuring the aggregative risk of implementing an RFID digital campus system. The importance weights of risk factors and possible occurrence ratings of four risk grades (high, medium, low and none) are determined by using consistent fuzzy preference relations. The relative priority weights of evaluators are considered simultaneously by using simple additive weighting method. Multiplying the importance weights of risk factors, the possible occurrence ratings of risk grades and the relative priority weights of evaluators, the aggregative risk degree of implementing an RFID digital campus system is derived. University A in Taiwan is used to demonstrate the computation procedures of this proposed methodology.     

基于模糊网络分析法的隧道坍塌风险评估

针对钻爆法隧道施工过程中坍塌风险事件频发、影响因素众多,且目前已有评估方法难以对其作出准确分析,为了考虑到风险因素间的相互影响及其模糊性与不确定性,提出一种基于模糊网络分析法(FANP)的钻爆法隧道坍塌风险评估方法.通过收集和整理隧道坍塌资料,以风险分解结构(RBS)的思路构建钻爆法施工隧道坍塌风险评价指标.基于网络分析法建立模糊加权超矩阵,计算极限超矩阵求得权重向量.最后根据最大隶属度得到坍塌风险的大小.该模型在福建莆炎隧道得到验证,其分析结果可信.     

基于模糊层次分析法的地铁深基坑施工风险评估

地铁深基坑施工技术复杂、不确定因素多,施工阶段发生风险的概率较大且风险损失后果严重.为降低和控制地铁深基坑施工风险,有必要对其进行风险评估.结合工程实例,先根据工程地质条件和施工方法等对主要施工风险进行辨识;然后采用模糊层次分析法得到风险概率等级,并结合专家调查法对风险后果等级进行评估;最后确定地铁深基坑施工风险等级为IV级,并根据主要风险提出了有针对性的施工风险控制措施,确保施工安全.     

收益率为模糊数的投资组合问题的讨论

从模糊性的角度考虑选择风险资产投资组合问题 ,对于收益率为模糊数的情形 ,在每一置信水平上 ,以偏离中心值的程度作为风险的度量 ,当预期收益率给定时 ,证明最小风险选择组合的存在性并得到其最优解 ,还给出全局最小风险组合存在的条件及其对应的全局最小风险的算式。