AN INDICATOR FOR ECOSYSTEM EXTERNALITIES IN FISHING

Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem. We use simulations with a size‐spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon general ecological principles and is calibrated to the North Sea. Two fleets are considered: a “forage fish” fleet targeting species that mature at small sizes and a “large fish” fleet targeting large piscivorous species. Based on the marginal analysis of the present value of the rent, we develop a benefit indicator that explicitly divides the consequences of fishing into internal and external benefits. This analysis demonstrates that the forage fish fleet has a notable economic impact on the large fish fleet, but the reverse is not true. The impact can be either negative or positive, which entails that for optimal economic exploitation, the forage fishery has to be adjusted according to the large fish fishery. With the present large fish fishery in the North Sea, the two fisheries are well adjusted; however, the present combined exploitation level is too high to achieve optimal economic rents.     

Reserve stock models: Deterioration and preventive replenishment

Reserve stocks are needed in a wide spectrum of industries from strategic oil reserves to tactical (machine buffer) reserves in manufacturing. One important aspect under-looked in research is the effect of deterioration, where a reserve stock, held for a long time, may be depleted gradually due to factors such as spoilage, evaporation, and leakage. We consider the common framework of a reserve stock that is utilized only when a supply interruption occurs. Supply outage occurs randomly and infrequently, and its duration is random. During the down time the reserve is depleted by demand, diverted from its main supply. We develop optimal stocking policies, for a reserve stock which deteriorates exponentially. These policies balance typical economic costs of ordering, holding, and shortage, as well as additional costs of deterioration and preventive measures. Our main results are showing that (i) deterioration significantly increases cost (up to 5%) and (ii) a preventive replenishment policy, with periodic restocking, can offset some of these additional costs. One side contribution is refining a classical reserve stock model (Hansmann, 1962).     

Catch‐to‐stock dependence: The case of small pelagic fishery with bounded harvesting effort

Biologic characteristics of schooling fish species explain why the rates of harvesting in pelagic fisheries are not proportional to the existent stock size and may exhibit no variation between the periods of fish abundance and scarcity. Therefore, the stock‐dependent nonlinearities in catchability must be reflected in the design of flexible fishing policies, which target the sustainable exploitation of this important natural resource. In this study, such nonlinearities are expressed through eventual variability of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter that measures the sensitivity of an additional catch yield to marginal changes in the fish‐stock level. Using the optimal control modeling framework, we establish that each value of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter generates a unique steady‐state size of the fish stock and the latter engenders an optimal fishing policy that can be sustained as long as the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter remains unchanged. We also prove the continuous dependence of the steady‐state stock and underlying fishing policy upon the mentioned “catch‐to‐stock” parameter and then focus on the analysis of the equilibrium responses to changes in this parameter induced by external perturbations. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Marginal catches of pelagic fish stocks do not react in a linear way to changes in existing stock level, and the latter is captured in our model by the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter . Each observable value of engenders a unique steady‐state stock size that defines an optimal fishing policy, which can be sustained as long as remains unchanged.
• The ability of fishery managers to detect variations in the levels of hyperstability expressed by the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter may help them to anticipate new equilibrium responses in stock evolution and to make timely adjustments in the fishing policy.
• Plausible estimations of the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter , as well as detection of its possible alterations, can be carried out within the framework of Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach where different data collected inside and outside the fishery are contrasted via the validation of a relatively simple decision‐making model (presented in this paper) coupled with other “operation models” of higher complexity.
• If the “catch‐to‐stock” parameter cannot be reasonably assessed (), the fishery managers may rely upon the lower bound of stationary stock size, which depends on economic and biological factors (such as the present and future economic values of the exploited fish stock, its marginal productivity, and underlying dynamics of biological growth).

     

存货论模型的建立

商家进货要有计划 ,进货过多 ,卖不出去 ,造成货物积压 ,库存费增加 ;进货过少 ,供不应求 ,使销量减少 ,影响收益 .如何合理地定期进货 ,使商家获取收益最大 ,本文就存货论模型 ,利用转移概率 ,寻找最佳进货方案 ,为合理进货提供依据 .     

经理管理防御会影响公司股价同步性吗?

经理人固守职位衍生的管理防御问题是长期困扰公司发展的重要议题。然而,现有研究多将重点置于管理防御如何影响企业财务决策,而对于其是否会影响资本市场则缺乏足够关注。以2007～2018年中国A股上市公司为样本,依据“防御动机→行为选择→经济后果”的逻辑思路,基于股价同步性的视角,考察经理管理防御影响资本市场的客观表现与内在机理。研究发现,公司股价同步性随着经理管理防御水平的提高而显著上升,该结论在控制内生性问题之后依然稳健;影响路径的检验结果表明：经理管理防御对股价同步性的影响通过：(1)经理管理防御→信息操纵→股价同步性;(2)经理管理防御→内幕交易→股价同步性等两条路径得以实现。异质性检验的结论显示,经理管理防御对公司股价同步性的正影响,在未聘请“四大”审计机构和非国有企业的样本中更为显著。上述研究结论不仅从管理防御这一微观层面拓展了股价同步性影响因素领域的文献研究,而且对于提升资本市场配置效率,实现新阶段下中国金融改革的目标,具有一定的指导意义。     

THE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF HIGH SEAS FISHERY RESOURCES UNDER THE NEW LAW OF THE SEA

The Agreement, arising from the recently concluded U.N. Conference on Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks, calls for the management of these transboundary resources to be undertaken through regional fisheries management organizations. This paper represents a first attempt to analyze the optimal economic management of straddling/highly migratory stocks under the to-be-established regional organizations. Dynamic game theory, commonly used in analyzing the management of “shared” fishery resources, is brought to bear. An obvious question to be raised is whether the analysis applied to “shared” fish stocks management is sufficient for the purpose of examining the management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks. The analysis is not sufficient for the purpose of examining the cooperative management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks, because, in contrast to “shared” fish stock management, there is no guarantee that the number and nature of joint exploiters of the resource, in the aforementioned regional organization, will be constant through time. It is the existence of what is termed the “New Member Problem” which most clearly distinguishes the management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks from the management of “shared” fish stocks. The paper discusses several approaches to addressing the “New Member Problem.”     

FISHERIES AND MARINE PROTECTED AREAS: A SPATIAL BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs), used increasingly as a tool for conservation of ocean and coastal environments, typically interact with fisheries. Indeed, implementation of an MPA in a coastal region will likely affect fishing communities along that coast but to differing degrees depending on their location relative to the MPA. The resulting creation of “winners” and “losers” has implications for the acceptance and long‐term viability of the MPA. This paper develops a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model to assess the distributional implications resulting from creation of a no‐take MPA. The key assumption is that this results in certain fishers being displaced from the MPA to new fishing locations, leading to decreased fishing time and increased costs. Is it possible for those being displaced to end up as “winners” in the fishery? Analysis of the model indicates that such an outcome can occur in certain circumstances, notably if the biological effects of the MPA produce (i) improved ecosystem health inside the MPA, such that fish stock carrying capacity increases; or (ii) to some extent, high fish stock migration rates between neighboring areas. The results indicate that in creating MPAs, careful attention to their design is needed in order to deal with corresponding distributional impacts on fishing communities.     

投资者概念关注对股票收益的影响研究—基于百度搜索数据

我国股票市场存在明显的概念炒作现象,扭曲了市场的良性定价机制。本文基于有限注意视角揭示投资者概念关注对股票收益的影响机制,使用百度搜索数据衡量投资者概念关注,以“一带一路”、“5G”和“PM2.5”概念板块的股票为研究样本进行实证研究。结果表明:在控制了Fama-French三因素以及投资者个股关注情况下,投资者概念关注对所属概念板块的股票收益有显著正向影响,但这种影响作用会在随后几期反转为负向影响。投资者个股关注一方面会强化投资者概念关注对股票收益的正向影响,另一方面投资者个股关注越高,个股的流动性就越强,从而会弱化投资者概念关注对股票收益影响作用的反转效应。研究结论丰富了投资者关注的理论研究,为抑制概念炒作提供理论依据和实现途径。     

A stocking policy for spare part provisioning under age based preventive replacement

A new policy, called stocking policy for ease of reference, has been advanced for joint optimization of age replacement and spare provisioning. It combines age replacement policy with continuous review (s, S) type inventory policy, where s is the stock reorder level and S is the maximum stock level. The policy is generally applicable to any operating situation having either a single item or a number of identical items. A simulation model has been developed to determine the optimal values of the decision variables by minimizing the total cost of replacement and inventory. The behaviour of the stocking policy has been studied for a number of case problems specifically constructed by 5-factor second order rotatory design and the effects of different cost elements and item failure characteristics have been highlighted. For all case problems, optimal (s, S) policies to-support the Barlow-Proschan age policy have also been determined. Simulation results clearly indicate that the optimal stocking policy is, in general, more cost-effective than the Barlow-Proschan policy.     

Model predictive control,the economy,and the issue of global warming

This study is motivated by the evidence of global warming, which is caused by human activity but affects the efficiency of the economy. We employ the integrated assessment Nordhaus DICE-2007 model (Nordhaus, A question of balance: economic modeling of global warming, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2008). Generally speaking, the framework is that of dynamic optimization of the discounted inter-temporal utility of consumption, taking into account the economic and the environmental dynamics. The main novelty is that several reasonable types of behavior (policy) of the economic agents, which may be non-optimal from the point of view of the global performance but are reasonable form an individual point of view and exist in reality, are strictly defined and analyzed. These include the concepts of “business as usual”, in which an economic agent ignores her impact on the climate change (although adapting to it), and of “free riding with a perfect foresight”, where some economic agents optimize in an adaptive way their individual performance expecting that the others would perform in a collectively optimal way. These policies are defined in a formal and unified way modifying ideas from the so-called “model predictive control”. The introduced concepts are relevant to many other problems of dynamic optimization, especially in the context of resource economics. However, the numerical analysis in this paper is devoted to the evolution of the world economy and the average temperature in the next 150 years, depending on different scenarios for the behavior of the economic agents. In particular, the results show that the “business as usual”, although adaptive to the change of the atmospheric temperature, may lead within 150 years to increase of temperature by 2°C more than the collectively optimal policy.     

COMPARISON OF TWO MODELS AND TWO ESTIMATION METHODS FOR CATCH AND EFFORT DATA

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal steady effort level from a time series of catch and effort data, taking account of errors in the observation of the “effective effort” as well as randomness in the stock-production function. The “total least squares” method ignores the time series nature of the data, while the “approximate likelihood” method takes it into account. We compare estimation schemes based upon these two methods by applying them to artificial data for which the “correct” parameters are known. We use a similar procedure to compare the effectiveness of a “power model” for stock and production with the “Ricker model.” We apply these estimation methods to some sets of real data, and obtain an interval estimate of the optimal effort.     

基于MRS-SJC-Copula模型对A股与港股的动态联动性研究

由于经济增长周期变化,导致不同股票市场存在高低状态转换的现象,在研究不同股票市场之间联动性的研究时,需要考虑股票波动均值和方差两种结构变化。基于具有马尔可夫状态转换的动态SJC-Copula,结合修正ICSS算法对我国内地股票市场和香港股票市场之间的联动性进行方差结构突变点的检验。实证结果表明:国内和香港股票市场之间存在非线性非对称的时变相依性,并持续存在高低两种不同状态的概率转换。股票指数由于动态联动受到负面消息的下跌幅度大于正面消息的变化幅度,且上下尾部均受上期信息的持续影响。“沪港通”、“深港通”、中美贸易战等因素使得其上下尾部发生结构突变,内地与香港股票市场的联动性增大和市场波动幅度趋强。     

Forecasting demand variation when there are stockouts

This paper addresses the common problem of forecasting demand when there are a large number of stockouts. The well-known single period stochastic inventory (or ‘newsboy’) problem provides the optimum, single period, stocking level for a product subject to stochastic demand. There are many situations where repetitive ‘newsboy’ solutions are implemented to guide stocking of repeat, but related, products, such as newspapers, magazines, or perishable groceries. Implementation of the ‘newsboy’ solution requires forecasts of the distribution of demand, although there are many plausible cost parameters that lead to optimum stocking policies where there is a high probability of a stockout. The company is, therefore, faced with the problem of attempting to forecast demand when a high percentage of the available sales data reflects the stock available for sale, rather than the true demand.A procedure has been developed¹ to improve estimates of the mean and variance of the distribution of demand when there are stockouts, but this procedure fails when the percentage of stockouts increases above 50%. A modified stockout adjustment procedure is presented in this paper, and it is shown that use of this new procedure can lead to greatly improved estimates of demand parameters, and greatly improved profitability, when there are a high percentage of stockouts.     

A remark on multiobjective stochastic optimization via strongly convex functions

Many economic and financial applications lead (from the mathematical point of view) to deterministic optimization problems depending on a probability measure. These problems can be static (one stage), dynamic with finite (multistage) or infinite horizon, single objective or multiobjective. We focus on one-stage case in multiobjective setting. Evidently, well known results from the deterministic optimization theory can be employed in the case when the “underlying” probability measure is completely known. The assumption of a complete knowledge of the probability measure is fulfilled very seldom. Consequently, we have mostly to analyze the mathematical models on the data base to obtain a stochastic estimate of the corresponding “theoretical” characteristics. However, the investigation of these estimates has been done mostly in one-objective case. In this paper we focus on the investigation of the relationship between “characteristics” obtained on the base of complete knowledge of the probability measure and estimates obtained on the (above mentioned) data base, mostly in the multiobjective case. Consequently we obtain also the relationship between analysis (based on the data) of the economic process characteristics and “real” economic process. To this end the results of the deterministic multiobjective optimization theory and the results obtained for stochastic one objective problems will be employed.     

The stock market's reaction to quality certification: Empirical evidence from Spain

The objective of this paper is to analyse the stock market's reaction to a company that is granted a quality certification (ISO 9000), and particularly when such an award is publicly announced. To do so, we carried out an event study, estimating the mean “abnormal” change in the stock prices of all of the firms that obtained quality certification, based on the ISO 9000 norms, while they were trading on the Spanish stock market between 1993 and 1999. The results show that the stock market reacts positively to such certification. This implies that quality certification can be considered as a useful tool for reducing the asymmetry in the information that circulates among buyers and sellers.     

A model of rational equilibrium in quota-regulated multiple-species fisheries

This paper derives rational ecological–economic equilibrium outcomes—capital and variable input allocations, harvests, discards, revenue, costs, and stock abundances—in a spatially heterogeneous, multispecies fishery that is regulated with individual fishing quotas (IFQs). The production setting is decentralized; a manager chooses species-specific, seasonal, and spatially nondelineated quotas. Industry controls all aspects of harvesting operations. We present a solution concept and computational algorithm to solve for equilibrium harvests, discards, and profits across species, space, and time (within the regulatory cycle). The rational equilibrium mapping that we derive, used recursively, can be used to implement management-preferred bioeconomic outcomes. The model offers an essential IFQ regulation-to-outcome mapping that enables more precise implementation of management goals in multiple-species and heterogeneous fishery settings. Recommendations for Resource Managers Knowing where and when individual tradeable fishing quotas will be utilized across heterogeneous space and time in multiple-species fisheries is essential for effective fisheries management. Ad hoc models, while simple, contribute to “implementation uncertainty” whereby predicted mortality, discards, cost, and rent outcomes across fish species, space, and time are poorly matched to the realized outcomes that are implemented by resource users. A model of rational equilibrium mortality, discards, costs, and rent across space and time offers and powerful tool to improve the management of quota-regulated fisheries.     

Non-linear constitutive relations for unstable materials

Non-linear constitutive relations to describe the rheological properties of unstable materials in the one-dimensional case are proposed, where the properties of instability, in particular ageing (i.e., the increase in stiffness and toughness of the material with time), are described by experimentally determined “instability functions”, which depend on the “age” of a given batch of material and, possibly, on invariance of the stress or strain tensors, which affect the rate of physical-chemical processes in the materials. Taking into account the instability of the material, a “fast” time is introduced, measured from the beginning of a short-term test with a material of a given age, and a “slow” time, measured from the instant when the material is produced. An exact solution of the problem of identifying the model, i.e., a determination of the material instability functions from experimental data, is constructed.     

Gravity Currents Produced by Sudden Release of a Fixed Volume of Heavy Fluid

In this paper we study various aspects of gravity (or density) currents arising from instantaneous releases of heavy fluids in a rectangular channel with a horizontal bottom. It is shown, by means of a scaling argument, that these plane currents can be successfully modeled by a two-by-two system in conservation form together with a pair of algebraic relations. A number of numerical experiments are carried out using this “weak stratification” model to elicit information concerning the behavior of gravity currents. A weakly nonlinear analysis is employed to clarify some aspects that were uncovered by the numerical experimentation.     

BENEFITS AND RISKS OF INCREASED SPATIAL RESOLUTION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF FISHERY METAPOPULATIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract Stock assessments and harvest guidelines are typically based on the concept of a “fish stock,” which may encompass a very large area. The presence of discrete subpopulations within managed fish stocks presents risks and opportunities for fishery management. Failure to manage catch at the same scale as the true population structure can lead to extirpation of discrete subpopulations and to declines in the productivity of the larger metapopulation. However, it may be difficult and costly to assess and manage stocks at a finer spatial scale, and there is likely greater uncertainty about the size of substocks than about the aggregate stock. We use a two‐area simulation model to compare the performance of fishery management at different spatial resolutions when there is uncertainty about growth, the size of the total population, and the relative size of the subpopulations. We show that relative benefits of finer scale management, in terms of profits and risks of depleting subpopulations, depend on a number of biological, technical, and economic factors. In some cases it may be both less risky and more profitable to manage the fishery with a single total allowable catch, even when there are biologically separate fish populations in the two areas.