Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Prototyping an intelligent decision support system for improving urban infrastructures management

This paper describes an intelligent decision support system (IDSS) dedicated to coordinated management of urban infrastructures (SIGIU). This system identifies the data and related treatments common to several municipal activities and defines the requirements and functionalities of the computer tools developed to improve the delivery, performance and coordination of municipal services to the population. The resulting cooperative system called SIGIU is composed of a global planning and coordination system (SYGEC) and a set of integrated operating systems (SYDEX), each of them being associated with a specific urban system (sewerage, waterworks, etc.). In order to support the decision-making process, an IDSS was developed as a knowledge-based system provided with inference mechanisms that enables SYGEC and SYDEX to make strategic choices in terms of technical interventions on municipal infrastructures. The knowledge-based system stores experts' knowledge as well as solutions to past problems. Preliminary implementation results show that SIGIU effectively and efficiently supports the decision-making process related to managing urban infrastructures.     

A survey of decision support system applications (1988–1994)

To extend a previous survey of specific decision support system (DSS) applications over the period (January 1971–April 1988), we have conducted a follow-up survey of DSS applications published between May 1988 and December 1994. Two hundred seventy-one published applications are identified. This survey reveals that there appear to be more creative applications of optimisation and suggestion model-based DSS than simulation-based applications. This is evidenced by a proportional increase of optimisation and suggestion models and a decrease of representation models. Moreover, group decision support systems, executive support systems, and knowledge-based systems applications are becoming more prevalent in many organisations. Although management science (MS)/operational research (OR) models continue to play critical roles, there is a clear observable trend in the DSS model area that three non-MS/OR tools are emerging as powerful DSS tools: graphics, artificial intelligence, and visual interactive modeling.     

Positioning analysis using knowledge-based support

We present knowledge-based support for positioning analysis applications. It is shown how knowledge about user wishes, positioning analysis objectives, and the input/output behavior of methods can be combined in order to provide substantial support for the analysis of survey data. We describe how such knowledge is represented and processed in the knowledge-based marketing data analysis system WIMDAS-PS (WIssensbasiertes Marketing-DatenAnalyse-System zur Positionierungs-und Segmentierungsanalyse) and use a sample consultation session for demonstration purposes.     

Asymmetric information A laboratory experimental analysis

Modern information systems technology, including expanded availability of local area networks, provides potentially fertile means for studying information related problems across functional business areas. Our work demonstrates the development and use of a networked system designed to investigate a traditionally controversial problem in financial markets, the impact of insider information. The research methodology used to tackle this issue incorporates the use of a networked system that we developed to conduct carefully controlled laboratory experiments. We emphasize this methodology as an alternative to techniques using recorded historical market data. The latter approaches are limited by an inability to accurately identify which traders possess and access inside information. Our system incorporates a communication and recording network among work stations with each station possessing stand alone decision support system capabilities. We demonstrate use of the system and present the results and accompanying analyses of a series of experiments relating to impacts of inside information.     

Group decision making with simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator

Simplified neutrosophic set is a convenient tool proposed for dealing with complex problems; it is effective in providing more data for decision‐making process. In this study, we develop a simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator which combines the neutrosophic distance measures and the ordered weighted average distance in the same formulation. It is a new handy aggregation operator that considers the situations where the input data are represented in simplified neutrosophic numbers, and it also contains diverse distance aggregation operators. Parameterized families of simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator are handled. Moreover, we establish a new neutrosophic group decision‐making method based on the simplified neutrosophic ordered weighted distance operator, which has 2 extended approaches for determining the weights of decision makers and decision attributes in decision‐making process, respectively. Finally, an illustrative example demonstrates the application of the proposed method. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are shown by the comparative analysis with existing relative methods.     

On the evolution of an intelligent maintenance optimization system

In this paper the author reviews the development of an intelligent maintenance optimization system over the past 16 years. The paper starts with discussion of the initial motivation behind developing the system and the designs of the early versions of a computer program to access maintenance history data and provide an analysis. The concept behind this system was gradually developed to incorporate a rule base for the selection of a suitable model for preventive maintenance (PM) scheduling and then to a fully developed knowledge-based system for decision support. The need to incorporate case-based reasoning thus creating a hybrid system that can learn with use in addition to using elicited knowledge from experts is discussed. The experience with system validation with two versions of the system is analysed. The paper also reviews the extensive fundamental work on developing appropriate PM models that can deal with real data patterns. Finally, the scope for future development is presented.     

A survey of knowledge-based systems research in decision sciences (1980–1995)

Research in knowledge-based systems (KBS) has become an important area of inquiry within decision sciences. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive survey of research papers published on this topic. We determined frequency counts of papers and we also performed a content analysis of the papers we surveyed. The results indicate that there are a large number of studies informing us of the design and development issues relating to KBS. However, there seems to be less research examining issues relating to the management and impact of KBS on individuals and organisations. We summarise our key findings and identify avenues for future research.     

Additive aggregation with variable interdependent parameters: the VIP analysis software

We consider the aggregation of multicriteria performances by means of an additive value function under imprecise information. The problem addressed here is the way an analysis may be conducted when the decision makers are not able to (or do not wish to) fix precise values for the importance parameters. These parameters can be seen as interdependent variables that may take several values subject to constraints. Firstly, we briefly classify some existing approaches to deal with this problem. We argue that they complement each other, each one having its merits and shortcomings. Then, we present a new decision support software—VIP analysis—which incorporates approaches belonging to different classes. It proposes a methodology of analysis based on the progressive reduction of the number of alternatives, introducing a concept of tolerance that lets the decision makers use some of the approaches in a more flexible manner.     

A confidence voting process for ranking problems based on support vector machines

In this paper, we deal with ranking problems arising from various data mining applications where the major task is to train a rank-prediction model to assign every instance a rank. We first discuss the merits and potential disadvantages of two existing popular approaches for ranking problems: the ‘Max-Wins’ voting process based on multi-class support vector machines (SVMs) and the model based on multi-criteria decision making. We then propose a confidence voting process for ranking problems based on SVMs, which can be viewed as a combination of the SVM approach and the multi-criteria decision making model. Promising numerical experiments based on the new model are reported. The research of the last author was supported by the grant #R.PG 0048923 of NESERC, the MITACS project “New Interior Point Methods and Software for Convex Conic-Linear Optimization and Their Application to Solve VLSI Circuit Layout Problems” and the Canada Researcher Chair Program.     

Scatter tabu search for multiobjective clustering problems

We propose a hybrid heuristic procedure based on scatter search and tabu search for the problem of clustering objects to optimize multiple criteria. Our goal is to search for good approximations of the efficient frontier for this class of problems and provide a means for improving decision making in multiple application areas. Our procedure can be viewed as an extension of SSPMO (a scatter search application to nonlinear multiobjective optimization) to which we add new elements and strategies specially suited for combinatorial optimization problems. Clustering problems have been the subject of numerous studies; however, most of the work has focused on single-objective problems. Clustering using multiple criteria and/or multiple data sources has received limited attention in the operational research literature. Our scatter tabu search implementation is general and tackles several problems classes within this area of combinatorial data analysis. We conduct extensive experimentation to show that our method is capable of delivering good approximations of the efficient frontier for improved analysis and decision making.     

Some statistical challenges in automated driving systems

Automated driving systems are rapidly developing. However, numerous open problems remain to be resolved to ensure this technology progresses before its widespread adoption. A large subset of these problems are, or can be framed as, statistical decision problems. Therefore, we present herein several important statistical challenges that emerge when designing and operating automated driving systems. In particular, we focus on those that relate to request-to-intervene decisions, ethical decision support, operations in heterogeneous traffic, and algorithmic robustification. For each of these problems, earlier solution approaches are reviewed and alternative solutions are provided with accompanying empirical testing. We also highlight open avenues of inquiry for which applied statistical investigation can help ensure the maturation of automated driving systems. In so doing, we showcase the relevance of statistical research and practice within the context of this revolutionary technology.     

Eliciting and mapping qualitative preferences to numeric rankings in group decision making

Group work is becoming the norm in organizations. From strategy planning committees to quality management teams, organizational members are collaborating on problem solving. One area of team support that is often desired is the scoring and ranking of decision alternatives on qualitative/subjective domains, and the aggregation of individual preferences into group preferences. In this paper we present a new conceptual approach to qualitative preference elicitation and aggregation. This approach is based on well established decision analysis techniques. It significantly advances the state of the art of group decision making by addressing four common limitations: (1) the inability to deal with vagueness of human decision makers in articulating preferences; (2) difficulties in mapping qualitative evaluation to numeric estimates; (3) problems in aggregating individual preferences into meaningful group preference; and (4) the lack of simple user friendly techniques for dealing with a large number of decision alternatives. Our approach is easy to implement in stand alone personal computers and groupware. We illustrate this with a real-world problem.     

On the organization of large shared Model bases

Central to the Model Management (MM) function is the creation and maintenance of a knowledge-based model repository. The Model Knowledge Base (MKB) provides the basis by which information about models can be shared to facilitate consistent and controlled utilization of existing models for decision making, as well as the development of new models. Various schemes for representing individual models have been proposed in the literature. This paper focuses on how best to structure, control, and administer a large MKB to support organization-wide modeling activities. Guided by a recently proposed systems framework for MM, we describe a number of concepts which are useful for capturing the semantics and structural relationships of models in an MKB. These concepts, and the nature of the MMS functions to be supported, are then used to derive specific information management requirements for model bases. Four major requirements are identified: (1) management of composite model configurations; (2) management of model version histories; (3) support for the model consultation and selection functions of an MMS; and (4) support for multiple logical MKBs (private, group, and public). We argue that traditional record-based approaches to data management appear to fall short of capturing the rich semantics present in an MM environment. The paper proposes an architecture for an MMS, focusing on its major component — the MKB Management Subsystem. An implementation of this architecture is briefly described.     

Intelligent management systems in operations: a review

Operations management is an area that has recently started to benefit from the use of AI techniques such as expert systems, neural networks and genetic algorithms. These techniques can extend the usefulness of OR modelling and enable new types of decision tasks to be supported by computer-based systems. This paper attempts to review ‘intelligent’ decision support systems and their potential to address some of the problems faced in various areas of operations management. Some useful techniques developed in the field of artificial intelligence are outlined and examples of attempts to use these approaches to support decision making in various areas of operations management are described. Recognising the scale of a complete review of all these areas, emphasis has been given to the most significant and more recent publications.     

Solving generalized fuzzy data envelopment analysis model: a parametric approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric technique to assess the performance of a set of homogeneous decision making units (DMUs) with common crisp inputs and outputs. Regarding the problems that are modelled out of the real world, the data cannot constantly be precise and sometimes they are vague or fluctuating. So in the modelling of such data, one of the best approaches is using the fuzzy numbers. Substituting the fuzzy numbers for the crisp numbers in DEA, the traditional DEA problem transforms into a fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA) problem. Different methods have been suggested to compute the efficiency of DMUs in FDEA models so far but the most of them have limitations such as complexity in calculation, non-contribution of decision maker in decision making process, utilizable for a specific model of FDEA and using specific group of fuzzy numbers. In the present paper, to overcome the mentioned limitations, a new approach is proposed. In this approach, the generalized FDEA problem is transformed into a parametric programming, in which, parameter selection depends on the decision maker’s ideas. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the approach and to compare it with some other approaches.     

Support vector machine classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets via robust optimization

In this article we study support vector machine (SVM) classifiers in the face of uncertain knowledge sets and show how data uncertainty in knowledge sets can be treated in SVM classification by employing robust optimization. We present knowledge-based SVM classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets using convex quadratic optimization duality. We show that the knowledge-based SVM, where prior knowledge is in the form of uncertain linear constraints, results in an uncertain convex optimization problem with a set containment constraint. Using a new extension of Farkas' lemma, we reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain convex optimization problem in the case of interval uncertainty as a convex quadratic optimization problem. We then reformulate the resulting convex optimization problems as a simple quadratic optimization problem with non-negativity constraints using the Lagrange duality. We obtain the solution of the converted problem by a fixed point iterative algorithm and establish the convergence of the algorithm. We finally present some preliminary results of our computational experiments of the method.     

An interactive decision support system for the bank courier routing problem

In this paper, we present an interactive decision support system for collecting and processing financial transit material for the Southeast Bank N.A. The underlying model is a bicriteria shortest path problem. The system provides a feasible solution in a matter of minutes, which provides the decision maker with an opportunity to perform “what if” analysis. The system can be extended to other vehicle routing problems with inventory components.