地铁车站火灾风险的模糊综合评价

根据地铁车站火灾的特点,确定地铁车站火灾风险的评价指标体系及权重.运用模糊数学原理,建立地铁车站火灾风险的模糊综合评价模型,并应用模型对某地铁车站火灾风险进行评价,较好的反映该地铁车站火灾安全的实际状况.方法为地铁车站火灾风险评价提供了新的思路,也为地铁车站火灾的防治提供理论依据.     

公共聚集场所特大火灾的灰色拓扑预测模型

根据1991年至2006年间中国公共聚集场所火灾统计资料,针对公共聚集场所特大火灾影响因子的不确定性和数据的波动性,运用灰色拓扑预测方法探讨了公共聚集场所特大火灾发生的规律,并建立灰色拓扑预测模型,预测未来5年内火灾发生情况.结果表明,所建立的灰色拓扑预测模型的检验精度都达到"好"的标准.因此采用灰色拓扑预测模型对中国公共聚集场所特大火灾发生情况进行预测结果比较可靠,可供消防部门参考.     

基于改进风险矩阵法的医院建筑火灾风险评价

在对国内外广泛采用的风险矩阵法进行全面系统的分析和总结的基础上,针对风险矩阵方法的不足,结合医院建筑火灾风险评价的的客观实际和需要,对风险矩阵法进行了改进,并将风险矩阵法引入医院建筑的火灾风险评价,提出一种融合改进风险矩阵法与层次分析法的医院建筑火灾风险评价模型,并实例验证该模型的有效性和可行性.     

煤矿火灾影响因素的权重分析

为得到矿井火灾影响因素与火灾发生风险之间关系,提出一种基于Skowron差别矩阵的权重确定方法.方法可处理专家信息U中的模糊数据,并具有逻辑推理能力;可根据U的累积特点更新影响矿井火灾风险因素的权重;可不考虑差别矩阵的相容性问题直接得到U下的条件因素权重和排序.建立了矿井火灾评价体系和标准.使用方法根据评价体系对某矿井进行了火灾风险分析,结果表明:决策因素值不同时,条件因素权重不同;U的改变将导致条件因素与决策因素对应关系改变,即决策因素和专家数量变化导致条件因素权重变化.从而方法可体现专家知识的累计效果.     

企业技术创新风险评价物元模型的建立及其应用

企业技术创新风险评价是企业管理的前沿和热点问题,是一项多学科交叉的边缘性研究课题,难度较大.基于物元理论和可拓学方法建立了企业技术创新风险评价模型,这为企业科学地进行技术创新风险管理提供了一定的理论指导.文末,通过实证分析说明了该模型在实际中的应用.其结果表明,该模型有效、可行,为企业技术创新风险评价提供了一条新的途径.     

水利建设项目跟踪审计风险多级可拓评价

为准确评价水利建设项目跟踪审计风险、提高风险应对效果,提出跟踪审计风险的多级可拓评价方法.首先,分析水利建设项目跟踪审计现状,构建包括环境风险、主体风险、客体风险及其他风险等4个一级指标及19个二级指标的风险评价指标体系;其次,运用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,建立水利建设项目跟踪审计风险的多级可拓评价模型;最后,应用该模型对某水利建设项目跟踪审计风险进行评价,确定其风险等级.研究结果表明:多级可拓评价模型充分考虑了水利建设项目跟踪审计风险因素的复杂性、模糊性与不确定性,最终的评价结果准确客观,为今后水利建设项目跟踪审计风险评价提供了新的思路.     

基于灰色聚类-SPA的建筑施工项目安全风险评价

针对建筑施工阶段的安全风险,建立了基于灰色聚类-集对分析(SPA)的建筑施工项目安全风险的综合评价模型.在应用SPA确定安全风险评价因素权重的基础上,采用灰色聚类方法对建筑施工项目进行聚类分析,评价建筑施工项目安全风险所处的等级,最后依据SPA中集对势等级次序表分析建筑施工项目安全风险发展态势.实例分析证明了该模型的适用性和合理性,对比分析表明其评价结果的可靠性,为施工企业的安全风险决策提供借鉴.     

高层建筑火灾安全评价的模糊最优归类模型

将模糊数学中的综合评判模型、最优归类模型与高层建筑中对火灾风险有影响的因子相结合，建立了高层建筑火灾风险评价的模糊最优归类模型。并对高层建筑火灾风险评价进行了实例分析。     

煤矿火灾影响因素的权重分析北大核心

为得到矿井火灾影响因素与火灾发生风险之间关系,提出一种基于Skowron差别矩阵的权重确定方法．方法可处理专家信息U中的模糊数据,并具有逻辑推理能力;可根据U的累积特点更新影响矿井火灾风险因素的权重;可不考虑差别矩阵的相容性问题直接得到U下的条件因素权重和排序．建立了矿井火灾评价体系和标准．使用方法根据评价体系对某矿井进行了火灾风险分析,结果表明：决策因素值不同时,条件因素权重不同;U的改变将导致条件因素与决策因素对应关系改变,即决策因素和专家数量变化导致条件因素权重变化．从而方法可体现专家知识的累计效果．     

基于Delphi-可拓理论的大型酒店消防安全评价研究

针对大型酒店消防管理的复杂性,综合考虑高层建筑空间火灾发生及消防救援的特点,建立全面多系统的消防安全综合评价指标体系.采用Delphi法将定性指标量化,引入物元可拓理论分析法构建综合可拓评价模型,得到各准则层及系统整体的风险等级和偏离所属等级的趋向程度.以长春市某大型酒店为例,验证了该体系的科学性和可行性.     

A fuzzy multi-objective programming for optimization of fire station locations through genetic algorithms

Location of fire stations is an important factor in its fire protection capability. This paper aims to determine the optimal location of fire station facilities. The proposed method is the combination of a fuzzy multi-objective programming and a genetic algorithm. The original fuzzy multiple objectives are appropriately converted to a single unified ‘min–max’ goal, which makes it easy to apply a genetic algorithm for the problem solving. Compared with the existing methods of fire station location our approach has three distinguish features: (1) considering fuzzy nature of a decision maker (DM) in the location optimization model; (2) fully considering the demands for the facilities from the areas with various fire risk categories; (3) being more understandable and practical to DM. The case study was based on the data collected from the Derbyshire fire and rescue service and used to illustrate the application of the method for the optimization of fire station locations.     

过度自信、违约补偿与众创投资平台三边道德风险规制

基于投资型众创空间运营过程中众创投资平台、风险投资机构和创业企业之间复杂的委托代理关系,构建了一个三边道德风险分析模型,将众创投资平台的过度自信倾向和风险投资机构的违约补偿引入模型设计,探讨了各利益主体的行为选择与道德风险约束。研究发现,众创投资平台过度自信对三边融资结构具有双重影响,既降低了创业企业的道德风险;又助长了投资平台的违约倾向,提高了代理成本和风险投资机构的道德风险。违约补偿可以有效规制三边道德风险,不仅降低了风险投资机构的违约行为,也有助于缓解投资平台和创业企业的道德风险。     

FIRESCAP: A computer simulation model of reaction to a fire alarm

We develop a theoretical model and its computer‐simulation translation of evacuation response to a fire alarm, based on past research on fire emergencies and on crowd behavior as well as on our past and continuing investigation of the Beverly Hills fire disaster. The simulation model presents graphically the status of individuals and socially tied pairs in a room as they initiate evacuation—typically in response to ambiguous information—and move toward alternative exits. Individual and pair status—including choice of exit—can change during evacuation in response to changing physical and social cues; statuses include pace of movement and cooperativeness‐competitiveness. We also present some experimental results on the sensitivity of the model's outcomes to variation in several parameters.     

基于云模型的自动化工装装配失效风险评估

为提高我国工业制造领域自动化装配水平与国际竞争力,对识别、评估自动化工装装配失效模式势在必行.在评估过程中克服传统评估过程中数据的不完整性和模糊性的缺陷.首先,运用人机料法环(4M1E)法识别潜在失效风险以构建自动化工装装配风险评估指标体系,并对技术失效模式做了详细分析;其次,基于结合最优传递矩阵性质的层次分析法和邻域粗糙集组合法对指标进行赋权;然后,以云理论为基础建立云模型失效风险综合评估模型;最后,以H企业的EPB工装装配为例,进行装配失效风险评估,结果表明:其评估结果发现EPB工装装配整体处于较高失效风险等级,与实际情况相符,验证了模型具有较好的可行性和有效性.研究结果以期对工装和设备运行的可靠性提供科学依据.     

A New Method for the Assessment of Noise Pollution in Urban Agglomerations

This work introduces a new method for the assessment of sound pollution in urban agglomeration. The method is based on fuzzy technique, which is a not used method until at this time for the pollution evaluation, but it will prove to be particularly useful and competitiveness. Starting from the classics design of the crowd and element of a crowd, shall be determined characteristics called degrees of belonging. The work presents the theoretical appropriateness for the application of fuzzy technique, the steps necessary to apply it, the program for the application of this technique, but also the computerized results obtained by application of the new methods, for the assessment of sound pollution by fuzzy technique. Concrete Implementation of a study from municipal area, with the implementation of the evaluation system based on fuzzy crowd is a rapid method, non-invasive, and has been obtained from the indicator of the impact on an intense inhabited road and powerful intense polluted from the movement of motor vehicles. Results of the study obtained from the application of technique fuzzy, compared with the measurement results in the same places, have proved viable and thus fuzzy technique becomes a useful tool, quick and non -destructive test for the assessment noise pollution in urban agglomerations. (© 2013 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

面向医疗纠纷风险的多属性空间专家群体评判研究

为尽可能地规避医疗纠纷风险,通过专家群体评判医疗机构存在的医患之间潜在风险,以期到达控制风险的端口前移.建立了拓展后的空间Steiner点为专家群体最优集结模型,并应用PGSA方法对其进行求解,以获取最优集结点.将集结点值表示成由等级值s_i和距离等级最近的偏差α_i所构成的二元语义(s_i,α_i).通过线性加权得到待评医疗机构的评价值,并进行排序.在算例分析中,完整地运用了该论文提出的方法,得出了最优集结点及评判结果,从而破解了多属性空间专家群体最优集结的难题,为医疗纠纷风险评判问题的研究,提供了一种新的方法.     

Scheduling sports competitions at multiple venues—Revisited

In this work, we study scheduling sports competitions at multiple venues, a problem recently introduced by Urban and Russell [T.L. Urban, R.A. Russell, Scheduling sports competitions on multiple venues, European Journal of Operational Research 148 (2003) 302–311]. The distinguishing feature of the problem is that venues come into play when scheduling. We develop beam search and simulated annealing approaches to the problem and its extension. Computational experiments were conducted and algorithms compared and analyzed. We found that the simulated annealing algorithm with specialized neighborhood moves achieved superior solutions in significantly shorter times than the method of Urban and Russell.