Capacity expansion and forward contracting in a duopolistic power sector

The surge in demand for electricity in recent years requires that power companies expand generation capacity sufficiently. Yet, at the same time, energy demand is subject to seasonal variations and peak-hour factors that cause it to be extremely volatile and unpredictable, thereby complicating the decision-making process. We investigate how power companies can optimise their capacity-expansion decisions while facing uncertainty and examine how expansion and forward contracts can be used as suitable tools for hedging against risk under market power. The problem is solved through a mixed-complementarity approach. Scenario-specific numerical results are analysed, and conclusions are drawn on how risk aversion, competition, and uncertainty interact in hedging, generation, and expansion decisions of a power company. We find that forward markets not only provide an effective means of risk hedging but also improve market efficiency with higher power output and lower prices. Power producers with higher levels of risk aversion tend to engage less in capacity expansion with the result that together with the option to sell in forward markets, very risk-averse producers generate at a level that hardly varies with scenarios.     

Strategic commitment versus postponement in a two-tier supply chain

In this paper the trade-off between strategic commitment and operational flexibility is examined as it arises in a supply chain when a supplier offers competing buyers opportunities to make early purchase commitments for a product with a short life cycle. Traditionally, the use of incentives for early purchase commitments for short life-cycle products has been justified on the basis of a supplier's production lead times or capacity constraints. An alternative explanation has been proposed by offering early purchasing opportunities, a supplier can influence the form of competition in the downstream market. Using a single period model, it has been shown that, below a threshold level of demand uncertainty, the supplier can benefit from providing adequate pricing incentives to entice downstream buyers to commit to purchase quantities before demand information is revealed. Moreover, such early purchasing opportunities can benefit the supplier as well as the buyers even in the absence of production lead times or capacity constraints.     

Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study

Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts.     

Optimal procurement strategies for online spot markets

Spot markets have emerged for a broad range of commodities, and companies have started to use them in addition to their traditional, long-term procurement contracts (forward contracts). In comparison to forward contracts, spot markets offer products at essentially negligible lead time, but typically command a higher expected price for this added flexibility while also exhibiting substantial price uncertainty. In our research, we analyze the resulting procurement challenge and quantify the benefits of using spot markets from a supply chain perspective. We develop and solve mathematical models that determine the optimal order quantity to purchase via forward contracts and the optimal quantity to purchase via spot markets. We analyze the most general situation where commodities can be both bought and sold via a spot market and derive closed-form results for this case. We compare the obtained results to the reference scenario of pure contract sourcing and we include results for situations where the use of spot markets is restricted to either buying or selling only. Our approaches can be used by decision makers to determine optimal procurement strategies based on key parameters such as, demand and spot price volatilities, correlation between demand and spot prices, and risk aversion. The results of our analysis demonstrate that significant profit improvements can be achieved if a moderate fraction of the commodity demand is procured via spot markets. The results also show that companies who use spot markets can offer a higher expected service level, but that they might experience a higher variability in profits than companies who do not use spot markets. We illustrate our analytical results with numerical examples throughout the paper.     

Collaboration among small shippers in a transportation market

Intense competition in markets is pushing companies to increase their operational efficiency. One possible way to achieve increased efficiency is through cooperation with other companies. We study the coalition formation among small shippers in a transportation market characterized by uncertain demand. We analyze the decisions taken by the coalition and study the effect of shipper characteristics on the benefit of collaboration. Analysis shows that the shippers always benefit from the coalition, but when the benefits are to be allocated, the coalition may not always guarantee the budget balance, which is elementary for sustainability of any coalition. Using a game theoretical approach this study proposes saving allocation mechanisms and discusses the conditions that lead to a balanced budget.     

周期与季节性因素影响下的短生命周期产品预测优化模型

短生命周期产品因为需求的随机性和产品价值的瞬间变化性,对预测准确性提出了更高的要求.然而许多企业在使用多种预测模型后发现其预测准确率并没有得到显著提升.以短生命周期产品需求特点为背景,在需求预测影响的BASS模型基础上,建立受生命周期和季节性因素影响的需求预测优化模型,最后通过一个产品的实例证实了验证了模型的合理性.     

考虑海外代购的品牌商定价模型研究

随着海外代购体量的日趋增大,代购带来的低价威胁对于在不同国家不同市场销售产品的公司来说已经成为一个日益严重的问题。同时,代购渠道中假货的问题也愈发严重。因此,在海外代购背景下探究产品定价模型具有必要性。以往研究普遍认为这种未经授权的销售会削减品牌方的利润,但实则不然。基于这一发现,本研究为在两个不同市场销售相同产品但面临代购低价威胁的公司制定考虑代购的市场定价模型。由公司制定两个市场的价格,消费者选择是否从包括代购在内的三个渠道购买产品。推出两个授权市场的最优价格,分析各参数变化对最优价格的影响,并校验最优价格对消费者需求和总利润的影响。模型分析表明,高价市场中有部分消费者需求转向海外代购,同时低价市场的消费者需求也受到了影响,且在一定条件下,提高高价市场的产品定价能够扩大低价市场的需求,从代购的角度解释了现实中需求曲线向上倾斜的现象。此外,两个独立市场之间的价格差距对代购市场的销售也产生了积极影响,并且在某些条件下,增大价格差距可以提高公司的收益水平。随后讨论了一种极端模型和三种扩展模型,通过模型分析表示,扩展后的定价模型也显示出与基础市场模型相似的灵敏度分析结果,同样得到两个市场的价差扩大会导致代购市场的销售额增加的结论,并且在一定条件下,公司的利润更高,增加了结论的可信度。     

Towards an auction-driven gas supply: a simulation-based optimization framework for utilities

A platform for the study of the whole transmission problem (arrival of ships, regasification, transportation and distribution) faced by gas utilities companies is proposed. The main objective of this research is to develop a platform that includes the analysis of the new capacity auctions (and not the traditional commodity auctions) that will govern the supply chain in the near future. A simulation-optimization approach has been used to favour the more realistic abstraction of the system. The discrete-event model includes a genetic algorithm to reach the solution in a satisfactory short time, a requisite in auction markets. Design and optimization studies for the utilities are addressed using the platform, which has been validated with real data for one of the main zones in the Spanish market.     

市场利率环境下银企信贷信息共享信号传递博弈模型

在市场利率环境下,运用信号传递博弈理论,在成本倒挂情况下,采取利息补贴承诺的方法,设计一种以风险分担实现利润共享的契约机制,利润共享参数起到了传递信息的信号作用。研究结果表明,在该契约下企业没有撒谎的动机,契约参数是传达信息的信号。该契约机制下不仅可以实现信贷资金供求信息的共享,而且能够保证系统的协调,系统收益达到最优,使企业能够得到新产品生产所需资金,银行解决信贷资金的风险损失的问题。     

A new lot sizing and scheduling heuristic for multi-site biopharmaceutical production

Biopharmaceutical manufacturing requires high investments and long-term production planning. For large biopharmaceutical companies, planning typically involves multiple products and several production facilities. Production is usually done in batches with a substantial set-up cost and time for switching between products. The goal is to satisfy demand while minimising manufacturing, set-up and inventory costs. The resulting production planning problem is thus a variant of the capacitated lot-sizing and scheduling problem, and a complex combinatorial optimisation problem. Inspired by genetic algorithm approaches to job shop scheduling, this paper proposes a tailored construction heuristic that schedules demands of multiple products sequentially across several facilities to build a multi-year production plan (solution). The sequence in which the construction heuristic schedules the different demands is optimised by a genetic algorithm. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on a biopharmaceutical lot sizing problem and compare it with a mathematical programming model from the literature. We show that the genetic algorithm can outperform the mathematical programming model for certain scenarios because the discretisation of time in mathematical programming artificially restricts the solution space.     

A method for the analysis of equilibrium multipart prices in oligopolistic markets

Motivated by the fact that both long distance and local telephone business are evolving into markets consisting of a few firms having different cost structures and offering multipart pricing schedules, and by the fact that there are almost no analyses of markets of this type in the economics literature, a methodology is developed for the analysis of multipart prices in these markets. The approach makes use of variational inequality theory to model static Nash equilibria in multipart prices, and a marketing type product space model for differentiated products imbedded in a discrete choice model framework to model the demand. The approach is designed to be applicable to real world problems; it is flexible and constraints encountered in the real world can be imposed. Two specific models are developed for two-part tariffs, one without resale of services allowed and one allowing for resale. Some qualitative results concerning existence and uniqueness are presented, but the strength of the methodology is quantitative analysis. An algorithm for finding equilibria is presented. An example market representing business WATS is presented to demonstrate the method. The variety of scenarios that can be investigated using the methodology demonstrate its potential to be a very useful tool for the analysis of oligopolistic markets in which multipart prices are prevalent.     

A robust disaster preparedness model for effective and fair disaster response

Humanitarian network design decisions belonging to the preparedness stage of disaster management life-cycle are of critical importance since they set the frame for all further post-disaster operations. Having an adequate number of strategically located storage and distribution centers for critical supplies is the key that enables effectiveness, efficiency and fairness when responding to a disaster situation. The preparedness model proposed in this study selects locations and inventory levels of these facilities such that the right mix of relief items can be supplied at the right time. Our mixed integer linear model aims to find a robust relief network design that satisfies the demand for all given disaster scenarios, and to help achieve a better response during the response stage when the relief items are distributed. The assumptions and the parameters used in the model are justified by authorities of humanitarian organizations. We propose a logic-based Benders decomposition approach to solve this problem to optimality. Although the problem is NP-hard, our numerical studies demonstrate that it is possible to obtain optimal or very good solutions to problem instances with realistic sizes.     

Exploring greedy criteria for the dynamic traveling purchaser problem

Given a set of products and a set of markets, the traveling purchaser problem looks for a tour visiting a subset of the markets to satisfy products demand at the minimum purchasing and traveling costs. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic variant of the problem (D-TPP) where the quantity made available in each market for each product may decrease over time. We introduce and compare several greedy strategies and test their impact on the solution in terms of feasibility and costs. In particular, we study an incremental approach where an initial naive strategy is improved and refined by a number of variants. Some of the proposed heuristics take into account either one of the two objective costs, while others are based on both traveling and purchasing costs. Extensive computational results are also provided on randomly generated instances.     

A system for the design of short term harvesting strategy

Short term harvesting requires decisions on which stands to harvest, what timber volume to cut, what bucking patterns (how to cut up the logs) to apply to logs in order to obtain products that satisfy demand and which harvesting machinery to use. This is an important problem in forest management and difficult to solve well in satisfying demand, while maximizing net profits. Traditionally, foresters have used manual approaches to find adequate solutions, which has shortcomings both in time spent by analysts and the quality of solutions. Since demand for timber products is defined by length, diameter and quality of each piece, this leads to a complex combinatorial problem in matching supply (standing trees) and demand. We developed one of the few reported approaches for solving the short term harvesting problem based on a computerized system, using a linear programming approach. Determining adequate bucking patterns is not trivial. We develop a column generation approach to generate such patterns. The subproblem is a specially designed branch and bound scheme. The generation of bucking patterns implemented within the LP formulation led to a significant improvement of solutions. We believe this is the first system implemented with this level of detail. This system has been advantageously implemented in several forest companies. The results obtained show improvements obtained by the firms of 5–8% in net revenues over traditional manual approaches.     

Postponed two-pricing and ordering opportunity for selling a single season inventoried product

Postponement strategies are becoming increasingly important in light of a global trend in which products’ life-cycles are decreasing, such that even products that are not traditionally considered seasonal become “obsolete” within a short period of time (e.g., electronic devices, new cars). Our work addresses postponed-pricing and ordering decisions for a retailer who sells a newsvendor-type inventoried product, in a selling season that is divided into two sub-periods. The division of the selling season enables the retailer to on-line adjust her decisions when faced with a scenario (one that is highly prevalent in reality) in which potential demand changes (increases or decreases) following consumers’ experiences of the product in early stages of the selling season. We assume that the retailer has two opportunities for receiving shipments: prior to the first sub-period and prior to the second one. The retailer determines each order quantity (base-stock level) on the basis of the demand distribution for the corresponding sub-period. In each sub-period, after observing additional market signals, the retailer determines the price of the product for that sub-period. With the aid of a stochastic programming approach, we develop optimization problems and solution methods in order to obtain pricing and ordering decisions that maximize the expected profit of the retailer. We present an extensive numerical example that compares the suggested strategy to three alternative strategies, and conclude that price postponement and responsiveness to demand changes can each reduce leftovers and lost sales as well as substantially increase expected profit.     

寡占市场易逝性产品收入管理的博弈分析

传统的收入管理没有考虑市场竞争的情况。本研究了销售同质易逝品的两家公司的存量控制策略，证明存在纯策略的纳什均衡。通过进一步与垄断(联盟)情况下的比较，得出在竞争状况下商家将为高价顾客预留更多的产品。     

Supply chain network capacity competition with outsourcing: a variational equilibrium framework

This paper develops a supply chain network game theory framework with multiple manufacturers/producers, with multiple manufacturing plants, who own distribution centers and distribute their products, which are distinguished by brands, to demand markets, while maximizing profits and competing noncooperatively. The manufacturers also may avail themselves of external distribution centers for storing their products and freight service provision. The manufacturers have capacities associated with their supply chain network links and the external distribution centers also have capacitated storage and distribution capacities for their links, which are shared among the manufacturers and competed for. We utilize a special case of the Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem, known as a variational equilibrium, in order to formulate and solve the problem. A case study on apple farmers in Massachusetts is provided with various scenarios, including a supply chain disruption, to illustrate the modeling and methodological framework as well as the potential benefits of outsourcing in this sector.     

Fuzzy pricing,marketing and service planning in a fuzzy inventory model: A geometric programming approach

In the real world markets, demand is influenced by different parameters. Recently, many researchers have been interested in integrated production and marketing planning strategies in inventory models where demand depends on different parameters such as price and/or marketing expenditure. The quality of services that are offered to customers of a product is one of the most important parameters that affects demand in the real markets and has not been considered in development of inventory models. On the other hand, the cost parameters in real inventory systems and other parameters such as price, marketing and service elasticity to demand are imprecise and uncertain in nature. So, the notion of fuzziness can be applied to cope with this uncertainty. In this paper, a new fuzzy profit maximization inventory model with shortages is proposed. The demand is considered as a power function of price, marketing expenditure and service expenditure. Furthermore, unit cost is determined as a power function of order quantity. Since the proposed model is in a fuzzy environment, a fuzzy decision should be made to meet the decision criteria, and the results should be fuzzy. Therefore, the proposed model is formulated and solved using geometric programming and fuzzy optimization techniques to derive an approximation of the results’ membership functions. The model is illustrated with a numerical example and finally a case study is provided for evaluation and validation of the results of model.     

Stochastic multi-site capacity planning of TFT-LCD manufacturing using expected shadow-price based decomposition

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model and efficient decomposition algorithm for multi-site capacity planning under the uncertainty of the TFT-LCD industry. The objective of the stochastic capacity planning is to determine a robust capacity allocation and expansion policy hedged against demand uncertainties because the demand forecasts faced by TFT-LCD manufacturers are usually inaccurate and vary rapidly over time. A two-stage scenario-based stochastic mixed integer programming model that extends the deterministic multi-site capacity planning model proposed by Chen et al. (2010) [1] is developed to discuss the multi-site capacity planning problem in the face of uncertain demands. In addition a three-step methodology is proposed to generate discrete demand scenarios within the stochastic optimization model by approximating the stochastic continuous demand process fitted from the historical data. An expected shadow-price based decomposition, a novel algorithm for the stage decomposition approach, is developed to obtain a near-optimal solution efficiently through iterative procedures and parallel computing. Preliminary computational study shows that the proposed decomposition algorithm successfully addresses the large-scale stochastic capacity planning model in terms of solution quality and computation time. The proposed algorithm also outperforms the plain use of the CPLEX MIP solver as the problem size becomes larger and the number of demand scenarios increases.     

偶匹配可扩性的极图问题

设G是含有完美匹配的简单图. 称图G是偶匹配可扩的(BM-可扩的), 如果G的每一个导出子图是偶图的匹配M都可以扩充为一个完美匹配. 极图问题是图论的核心问题之一. 本文将刻画极大偶匹配不可扩图, 偶图图类和完全多部图图类中的极大偶匹配可扩图.