基于UTA方法的关键基础设施系统的保护研究

关键基础设施系统是城市的生命线,但常因突发事件频发而具有不稳定性和脆弱性。一个好的保护方案应该综合考虑关键基础设施系统的韧性和成本等多个目标,但这些目标常常相互冲突而使决策陷入困境。本研究从多目标优化角度入手,探索用UTA方法确定保护关键基础设施系统最佳方案的可行性,UTA法通过与决策者互动获取决策者的偏好信息,并基于线性规划和价值函数原理构建了决策者偏好模型。通过C县电网系统的案例分析发现UTA方法可帮助决策者在决策过程中考虑多目标之间的冲突与权衡,从而确定最满意的决策方案。     

最大值、最小值在求参数取值范围中的应用

求参数的取值范围,一般要解以参数为元的不等式。从题目中已知的等量关系出发得到以参数为元的不等式,是解决这类问题的关键。本文介绍求参数的取值范围的一种较方便的方法,这种方法的基本思路是,引入主变量的函数(或含参数的函数),利用该函数在给定区间上的最值(或含参数的最值)把问题转化为关于最值的不等式。     

灰色白化权函数定权聚类模型在合并村庄脆弱性评估中的应用北大核心

灰色白化权函数定权聚类模型是根据灰色关联矩阵或灰数的白化权函数值将一些意义、量纲、样本值数量相差较大的观测指标或观测对象划分成若干个可定义类别的方法。文中利用灰色白化权函数定权聚类模型数理意义与合并村庄脆弱性评估目标高度契合的技术特点,运用该模型从外部扰动、敏感性、适应力三个维度对研究区域内8个合并村庄进行脆弱性评估,完善地解决合并村庄脆弱性评估时多维度、多评估对象、多评估指标、多评估等级交织在一起的复杂问题,从而为合并村庄的可持续发展提供决策与参考。     

同异反动态关联分析方法

在B型关联分析基础上给出了同异反同一度和综合同一度的概念,论证了同异反动态关联分析的性质及其求解方法。为研究事物的发展态势提供了一种动态分析方法     

基于用户感性需求的产品设计方案评估方法

目前满足用户的情感诉求和情感体验逐渐成为热销产品的关键属性,引起了产品开发者和企业决策者的关注。为了更好地贴合用户情感体验,结合信息熵、灰色关联分析和模糊TOPSIS,提出了以用户感性需求为向导的产品设计方案的评估方法。首先引入感性工学中复合感性意象量化用户的情感信息,通过对收集的产品意象进行聚类分析和主成分分析产生具有代表性的目标意象,运用语义差分调查获得代表意象的评价值;其次对规范化的意象评价值计算其熵值权重;最后结合灰色关联分析和模糊TOPSIS,产生用户情感信息指导下的产品设计备选方案的优先级排序。以智能手表设计为例,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。信息熵和结合灰色关联分析的模糊TOPSIS可以较大限度地减少方案评估时的个人主观影响,确保了评估结果的准确性,对企业产品方案决策具有指导意义。     

气候变化对国家脆弱性的影响

2014年联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第5次评估报告指明气候变化对人类安全的影响.本文利用2004年Bowers提出的基于信息论的计算两个变量之间的不确定逻辑关系的U值方法,讨论气候指标对国家脆弱性指标是否存在影响,进而确定影响的同步或异步,并利用三次样条插值计算气候指标对国家脆弱性指标的影响力.最后利用国家经济指标和国家脆弱性增长速率确定了国家脆弱性临界点.     

基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型

将二型模糊逻辑推理引入到元胞自动机模型中,把二型模糊逻辑推理与经典的元胞自动机模型结合起来,建立一种新的推理演化模型,基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型.元胞自动机模型的关键部分是演化规则和元胞状态.将元胞自动机模型中的演化规则二型模糊化,将经典元胞自动机模型中的元胞状态模糊化为二型模糊状态,建立基于二型模糊逻辑的元胞自动机模型.     

基于理想灰关联距离的课程评估方法

综合灰色系统理论、理想解法和欧氏距离,提出了一种新的基于理想关联距离度的课程评估方法,给出了建立评估模型的基本步骤.定量处理的指标,经过理想化、标准化后,定义关联数,由此计算关联距离度.通过灰色关联距离度,建立了一种接近最优方案远离最差方案的评估模型.并通过学院近期的课程评估实例分析,验证了该方法的准确性和可行性.     

基于可拓方法我国银行体系脆弱性的评价

在银行体系脆弱性评价中借助物元的概念,建立了银行体系脆弱性评价模型,并采用较为客观的评价方法——可拓方法对该模型进行评价,介绍了一种新的银行体系脆弱性评价方法.消除了其它主观评价方法带来的偏差,从而为我国银行体系脆弱性的监管决策提供有益参考.     

矿尘影响下生态系统脆弱性级联传播模型分析

为了解决矿尘连续排放并迁移对地表生态系统造成的脆弱性问题,提出了基于函数地理Petri网的脆弱性级联传播模型。综合考虑污染物迁移方向和生态环境在地理空间上的关联关系,直观地构造了基于级联传播的污染Petri网。在此基础上,定义了基于VCPM的脆弱度和阈值的概念,利用两者的关系进行脆弱性级联传播分析,从而明确级联传播的三种状态。最后,以神府煤田矿尘迁移作为污染物连续排放的污染源,通过模型方法的模拟仿真分析,对生态环境系统在级联传播下的脆弱性进行了深入探讨。已有的研究方法和结果不仅在生态环境脆弱性研究领域做出了新的贡献,而且为环境的修复和重建提供了参考价值。     

时间敏感选项依赖下的基础设施恢复决策研究

突发事件发生后,基础设施之间的恢复依赖为恢复过程带来了严重挑战。为了能够在突发事件后高效而有序的实现基础设施恢复运行,根据相互之间的恢复依赖关系制定合理的恢复决策非常关键。本文基于网络流理论,以累积恢复效能最大化为目标,建立了时间敏感选项依赖下的恢复设计与调度决策混合整数规划模型。然后,讨论了模型在完全中心化、完全分散和信息共享决策环境下的应用方法。最后,通过真实基础设施数据集测试了模型,结果表明:(1)该模型在突发事件后的基础设施恢复决策中具有应用可行性;(2)决策环境显著影响存在恢复依赖的基础设施网络整体累积恢复效能;(3)与完全分散决策环境相比,在信息共享决策环境下独立决策的整体累积恢复效能可以得到大幅提升。     

Multi-Level Strategic Evaluation of Hospital Plans and Decisions

Strategic decision making in hospitals involves the assessment of linkages between decisions that are typically made in a hierarchical fashion. In hospitals, as in most large organizations, overall system performance is a function of how well the critical decisions are integrated. This paper focuses on the multi-level nature of the decisions and policies that typically need to be evaluated in hospital planning, highlighting that both optimization and simulation approaches may be required. An application involving a large general purpose urban hospital is used to illustrate the interdependency between the levels in the planning hierarchy. An optimization model is formulated to deal with facility layout and capacity allocation while a simulation model is proposed to capture the complexities of hospital operations. The linkages and information feedback between the models are shown to be critical in the design of a system that performs well and facilitates strategic hospital planning.     

Decision CPM: Network Reduction and Solution

The Decision Critical Path Method (DCPM) applies to problems having a discrete time-cost tradeoff and including the possibility of interdependency constraints between the discrete job alternatives. Previously, it has been formulated as an integer-programming problem and solved by integer programming or by heuristic techniques. This paper shows that a variant of the usual critical path method may be used to reduce DCPM networks to equivalent networks containing only decision nodes and maximal distances between them. This operation, along with feasibility tests on the interdependency constraints, allows substantial simplification. A branch-and-bound method is then developed to solve the reduced problem.     

Stochastic Dynamic Programming Formulation for a Wastewater Treatment Decision-Making Framework

In this paper, a decision-making framework (DMF) based on stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is presented for a wastewater treatment system, consisting of a liquid treatment line with eleven levels and a solid treatment line with six levels (Chen and Beck, 1997). A continuous-state SDP solution approach based on the OA/MARS method (Chen, Ruppert, and Shoemaker, 1999) is employed, which provides an efficient method for representing a wide range of possible influent conditions. The DMF is used to evaluate current and emerging technologies for the multi-level liquid and solid lines of the wastewater treatment system. At each level, one technology unit is selected out of a set of options which includes the empty unit. The DMF provides a comparison on possible technologies for screening which types of technologies may best be further developed in order for an urban wastewater infrastructure to be judged progressively more sustainable. The results indicate that one or a pair of technologies are dominant in each level. The cheap, lower-technology unit processes receive a mixed review. Some of them are selected as the most promising technology units while the others are not considered as good candidates.     

基于集对分析的城市居民幸福指数测评—以济南、青岛、泰安、滨州为例

为探讨城市居民幸福感及其影响因素,采用主、客观评价相结合的方法构建了城市居民幸福指数的评价模型.首先通过对经济发展、居民生活、人口与就业结构和生活环境水平四个方面构建了居民客观幸福指数评价指标体系.对身心健康、生活便利、环境舒畅状况和自我价值实现四个方面构建了居民主观幸福指数评价指标体系.然后运用变异系数、主观G1权重赋值、集对分析评价法建立了一种基于多元联系数的综合评价模型.最后以济南、青岛、泰安、滨州为例,阐述了城市居民幸福指数集对分析模型的评价过程,评价结果合理可靠.     

Returns to scale in dynamic DEA

Two different types of inputs (variable inputs and quasi-fixed inputs) are incorporated into an analytical framework of dynamic data envelopment analysis (DEA). A unique feature of the quasi-inputs is that those are considered as outputs at the current period, while being treated as inputs at the next period. The dynamic DEA can measure interdependency among consecutive periods. This study incorporates the concept of returns to scale into the dynamic DEA.     

The Melnikov criterion of instability for random rocking dynamics of a rigid block with an attached secondary structure

In this paper we investigate the effect of structural flexibility on rocking motion of a system consisting of a free standing rigid block with an attached chain of uniaxially moving point masses. Motion is excited by random acceleration of the ground; instability is associated with overturning of the overall structure. The condition of instability is constructed by the stochastic Melnikov method. We demonstrate a twofold effect of structural flexibility on the rocking response. The attached structure may increase the critical angular displacement and velocity in comparison with the similar parameters of the single rigid block. At the same time, the enlargement of the domain of stability enhances the contribution of the random perturbation in the Melnikov process. As a result, a lower level of random forcing can result in overturning of the structure. As an example, an effect of a single-mass secondary structure on the dynamic behavior of the system is discussed. The paper is restricted to the consideration of seismic vulnerability of the structure. A similar approach can be applied to systems with wind or wave excitation.     

Emergy-based urban ecosystem health assessment: A case study of Baotou,China

Ecosystem health has been a hot topic of ecosystem management research for years. Considering the urban area as a complex ecosystem consisted of natural, societal and economic entities, urban ecosystem health assessment is necessary to be conducted for the scientific management and proper ecological restoration. Combining with the ecosystem service function of the urban ecosystem, theoretical framework and methodology of the urban ecosystem health assessment based on emergy are proposed and the temporal variation of the health level of the city are also outlined in this paper. Following the principle of ecosystem health assessment, four major factors, including vigor (V), organizational structure (O), resilience (R) and function maintenance (F), are integrated to construct a novel emergy-based urban ecosystem health index (EUEHI). Based on the EUEHI and comparing with those of five other typical Chinese cities, the case study of Baotou city shows that its urban ecosystem health level is steadily arising despite the year 2001 as a turning point. Due to the emphasis on the resource structure adjustment and utilization efficiency, Baotou has obtained a better organizational structure and service function for the total urban ecosystem.     

An interdependency index for the outputs of uncertain systems

The study of mechanical systems with uncertain parameters is gaining increasing interest in the field of system analysis to provide an expedient model for the prediction of the system behavior. Making use of the Transformation Method, the uncertain parameters of the system are modeled by fuzzy numbers in contrast to random numbers used in stochastic approaches. As a result of this analysis, a quantification of the overall uncertainty of the system outputs, including a worst-case scenario, is obtained. The inputs of the resulting fuzzy-valued model are a priori uncorrelated but after the uncertainties are propagated through the model, interdependency (or interaction) between the outputs may arise. If such interdependency is neglected, a misinterpretation of the results may occur. For example, in the case of applying uncertainty analysis in the early design phase of a product to determine the relevant design-parameter space, the interdependency between the design variables may reduce significantly the available part of the design space. This paper proposes a measure of interdependency between the uncertain system outputs. The interdependency index can be derived by a postprocessing of the data gained by the analysis with the Transformation Method. Such information can be obtained by a negligible amount of extra computation time.     

Joint production and preventive maintenance scheduling for a single degraded machine by considering machine failures

Production scheduling and maintenance planning are two interdependent issues that most often have been investigated independently. Although both preventive maintenance (PM) and minimal repair affect availability and failure rate of a machine, only a few researchers have considered this interdependency in the literature. Furthermore, most of the existing joint production and preventive maintenance scheduling methods assume that machine is available during the planning horizon and consider only a possible level for PM. In this research, an integrated model is proposed that coordinates preventive maintenance planning with single-machine scheduling to minimize the weighted completion time of jobs and maintenance cost, simultaneously. This paper not only considers multiple PM levels with different costs, times and reductions in the hazard rate of the machine, but also assumes that a machine failure may occur at any time. To illustrate the effectiveness of the suggested method, it is compared to two situations of no PM and a single PM level. Eventually, to tackle the suggested problem, multi-objective particle swarm optimization and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) are employed and their parameters are tuned Furthermore, their performances are compared in terms of three metrics criteria.