随机波动率模型下奇异期权定价的Monte Carlo方法

Monte Carlo方法是期权定价的经典方法之一,但是收敛速度较慢.针对Hull-White随机波动率模型提出一个拟Monte Carlo方法(QMC)与对偶变量法(AV)相结合的QMCAV方法,利用该方法可以处理一些奇异期权的定价问题.应用Monte Carlo方法(MC),拟Monte Carlo方法,对偶变量法和QMCAV方法分别进行数值模拟计算,给出了在不同参数变化下回望期权与亚式期权的模拟定价.数值实验表明,QMCAV方法较MC,QMC,AV方法更加稳定有效.     

随机利率下亚式期权的定价模型

§1Introduction Asianoptionpayoffdependsontheaverageofassetpricesoverthelifeofoptions.Theirpopularityistoavoidthepossiblepricemanipulationatthematuritydatefor ordinaryoptions.ItturnsouttobedifficulttoderiveBlack-Scholes-likeclosed-form formulaforAsianoptionsbecausethedistributionofarithmetic-averageassetpricesdoes nothavestandardexpression.AlotofworkhasbeendoneonpricingAsianoptionssince KemmaandVorst(1990).Manytreatmentsdealwiththecaseofgeometricaverageforthe firststepeitherasanapproximatio…     

CEV模型和B-P混合驱动模型下亚式期权Monte Carlo模拟

对亚式期权在CEV模型和B-P混合驱动模型限制下进行Monte Carlo模拟定价,建立风险中性测度,模拟出不同弹性因子值下资产价格路径.为了得出优于标准的Monte Carlo模拟,应用方差缩减技术来提高期权定价的精度.最后对亚式期权定价模型进行数值案例分析,得出弹性因子取值、时间步长、模拟次数与期权价值变化的关系.     

双随机跳扩散模型下亚式期权的定价

研究了双随机跳扩散模型下的亚式期权的定价问题.首先引入一个双随机跳扩散过程.然后通过测度变换消除了亚式期权定价中的路经依赖性问题.最后利用鞅定价方法和Ito引理得到了跳扩散模型下的亚式期权价格必须满足的一个积微分方程.通过数值求解该积微分方程就可以得到了亚式期权的价格,供投资者参考.     

随机波动率下股价服从O-U过程的期权定价

假设股票价格遵循指数O-U过程,利用随机分析中的鞅方法,得到了具有随机波动率的欧式期权的定价公式,推广了B-S模型.     

随机波动率跳跃扩散模型下复合期权定价

复合期权是一类以期权作为标的物的奇异型合约,它已广泛应用于许多金融实践。本文在股价满足一类随机波动率及跳跃均存在于股价和波动率的仿射跳跃扩散模型下(也称随机波动率混合跳跃扩散模型)考察了复合期权的定价。应用二维特征函数和Fourier反变换方法获到了标的为欧式标准看涨期权的欧式复合看涨期权的定价半封闭公式,并将其应用于推导扩展期权的定价。最后,借助于离散快速Fourier变换法(FFT)数值计算定价公式,并用数值实例分析了期权价格对波动率的敏感性。数值结果表明扩散波动和跳跃波动对期权价格都有正的影响,而且跳跃波动的冲击非常显著。     

基于有效Monte Carlo模拟的外汇期权组合非线性VaR模型

为了克服极小概率事件发生概率估计的困难,提出了把重要抽样技术发展到外汇期权组合非线性VaR模型中,估计出组合损失概率。为了进一步达到减少模拟估计误差目的,在重要抽样技术基础上使用分层抽样技术,进行更有效的Monte Carlo模拟。数值结果表明,重要抽样技术算法比常用Monte Carlo模拟法的计算效率更有效;而重要抽样技术和分层抽样技术相结合算法比重要抽样技术算法更有效地减少模拟所要估计的组合损失概率的方差,有着更高的计算效率。     

基于随机波动率模型的上证50ETF期权定价研究

传统上,期权定价主要基于Black-Scholes (B-S)模型。但B-S模型不能描述时变波动率以及解释"波动率微笑"现象,导致期权定价存在较大的误差。随机波动率模型克服了B-S模型的这些缺陷,能够合理地刻画波动率动态性和波动率微笑。基于此,本文考虑随机波动率模型下的期权定价问题,并针对我国上证50ETF期权进行实证分析。为了解决定价模型的参数估计问题,采用上证50ETF及其期权价格数据,建立两步法对定价模型的参数进行估计。该估计方法保证了定价模型在客观与风险中性测度下的一致性。采用2016年1月到2017年10月的上证50ETF期权价格数据为研究样本,对随机波动率模型进行了实证检验。结果表明,无论是在样本内还是样本外,随机波动率模型相比传统的常数波动率B-S模型都能够获得明显更为精确和稳定的定价结果,B-S模型的定价误差总体偏大且呈现较高波动,凸显了随机波动率对于期权定价的重要性。另外,随机波动率模型对于短期实值期权的定价相比对于其它期权的定价要更精确。     

Heston随机波动模型时变利率下支付红利的timer期权定价

本文研究了在Heston随机波动模型下,连续支付红利的timer期权定价的条件Black-Scholes-Merton型公式.首先,利用投资组合的?-对冲原理构造无风险资产,给出了timer期权在Heston随机波动模型下所满足的偏微分方程.然后利用拉普拉斯逆变换得到了与贝塞尔过程相关的联合密度函数的显式公式.最后得到支付红利下timer期权定价的Black-Scholes-Merton型公式.     

GARCH模型中美式亚式期权价值的蒙特卡罗模拟算法

我们运用 Longstaff和 Schwartz最近提出的用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算美式期权的方法在 GARCH模型中求解美式亚式期权 ,我们的结果表明和其它数值方法相比 ,这个方法不仅有相当的精确度 ,而且使用简便并具有更广泛的适用性 ,对于 GARCH模型中运用格点法难以求解的浮动执行价格的美式亚式期权同样可以得到稳定解 .     

MC方差减小技术在算术平均亚式外汇期权定价中的应用

建立了利率和汇率波动率均为随机情形下算术平均亚式外汇期权的定价模型.由于其定价问题求解十分困难,运用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法并结合控制变量方差减小技术进行模拟,有效地减小了模拟方差,得到了期权定价问题的数值结果.     

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Option Pricing

In this article, we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of related probability measures. These approaches have been used successfully for a wide class of applications in engineering, statistics, physics, and operations research. SMC methods are highly suited to many option pricing problems and sensitivity/Greek calculations due to the nature of the sequential simulation. However, it is seldom the case that such ideas are explicitly used in the option pricing literature. This article provides an up-to-date review of SMC methods, which are appropriate for option pricing. In addition, it is illustrated how a number of existing approaches for option pricing can be enhanced via SMC. Specifically, when pricing the arithmetic Asian option w.r.t a complex stochastic volatility model, it is shown that SMC methods provide additional strategies to improve estimation.     

屏蔽数据情形下几何平均亚式期权定价模型

通常情况下,前人的工作都是连续情形下的结论,假定股票价格部分信息被屏蔽,只在有限的时刻点上股票价格是明确已知的.在此假设之下,尝试考虑几何平均型亚式期权定价问题.利用拟-鞅的方法,建立了分数布朗运动环境下亚式期权定价模型,获得了离散情形几何加权平均亚式期权价格的解析表达式.     

非线性Black-Scholes模型下算术平均亚式期权定价问题

在非线性Black-Scholes模型下,研究了算术平均亚式期权定价问题.首先利用单参数摄动方法,将亚式期权适合的偏微分方程分解成一系列常系数抛物方程.其次通过计算这些常系数抛物型方程的解,给出了算术平均亚式期权的近似定价公式.最后分析了近似结论的误差估计,并通过数值算例验证了所得近似结论的合理性.     

跳跃——-扩散型欧式加权几何平均价格亚式期权定价

在亚式期权定价理论的基础上, 对期权的标的资产价格引入跳跃---扩散过程进行建模, 用几何Brown运动描述其常态连续变动, 用Possion过程刻画资产价格受新信息和稀有偶发事件的冲击发生跳跃的记数过程, 用对数正态随机变量描述跳跃对应的跳跃幅度, 在模型限定下运用Ito-Skorohod微分公式和等价鞅测度变换, 导出欧式加权几何平均价格亚式期权封闭形式的解析定价公式     

Robust Approximations for Pricing Asian Options and Volatility Swaps Under Stochastic Volatility

Abstract

We show that if the discounted Stock price process is a continuous martingale, then there is a simple relationship linking the variance of the terminal Stock price and the variance of its arithmetic average. We use this to establish a model-independent upper bound for the price of a continuously sampled fixed-strike arithmetic Asian call option, in the presence of non-zero time-dependent interest rates (Theorem 1.2). We also propose a model-independent lognormal moment-matching procedure for approximating the price of an Asian call, and we show how to apply these approximations under the Black–Scholes and Heston models (subsection 1.3). We then apply a similar analysis to a time-dependent Heston stochastic volatility model, and we show how to construct a time-dependent mean reversion and volatility-of-variance function, so as to be consistent with the observed variance swap curve and a pre-specified term structure for the variance of the integrated variance (Theorem 2.1). We characterize the small-time asymptotics of the first and second moments of the integrated variance (Proposition 2.2) and derive an approximation for the price of a volatility swap under the time-dependent Heston model ( Equation (52)), using the Brockhaus–Long approximation (Brockhaus, and Long, 2000 Brockhaus, O. and Long, D. 2000. Volatility Swaps made simple. Risk, 13(1) January: 92–96.  [Google Scholar]). We also outline a bootstrapping procedure for calibrating a piecewise-linear mean reversion level and volatility-of-volatility function (Subsection 2.3.2).     

模糊集理论在随机波动率期权定价中的应用

目的是对基于随机波动率模型的期权定价问题应用模糊集理论.主要思想是把波动率的概率表示转换为可能性表示,从而把关于股票价格的带随机波动率的随机过程简化为带模糊参数的随机过程.然后建立非线性偏微分方程对欧式期权进行定价.     

Rare Shock,Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility and Currency Option Pricing

Abstract

In this paper, we develop an option valuation model where the dynamics of the spot foreign exchange rate is governed by a two-factor Markov-modulated jump-diffusion process. The short-term fluctuation of stochastic volatility is driven by a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process and the long-term variation of stochastic volatility is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain which can be interpreted as economy states. Rare events are governed by a compound Poisson process with log-normal jump amplitude and stochastic jump intensity is modulated by a common continuous-time Markov chain. Since the market is incomplete under regime-switching assumptions, we determine a risk-neutral martingale measure via the Esscher transform and then give a pricing formula of currency options. Numerical results are presented for investigating the impact of the long-term volatility and the annual jump intensity on option prices.