具有阶段结构的SIR传染病模型

研究了一类具有阶段结构的SIR传染病模型，在模型中假设种群分幼年和成年两个阶段，且只有成年种群染病，并且采用与成年易感者数量有关的一般非线性传染率，得到了系统解的有界性及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点存在的条件．通过对平衡点对应的特征方程的讨论得到了平衡点局部渐近稳定的条件，同时证明了平衡点的全局渐近稳定性，并对结论进行了数值模拟．     

Mathematical analysis of a two-patch model of tuberculosis disease with staged progression

The spread of tuberculosis is studied through a two-patch epidemiological system SE₁ ? E_nI which incorporates migrations from one patch to another just by susceptible individuals. Our model is consider with bilinear incidence and migration between two patches, where infected and infectious individuals cannot migrate from one patch to another, due to medical reasons. The existence and uniqueness of the associated endemic equilibria are discussed. Quadratic forms and Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there exists in each case a unique endemic equilibrium (boundary equilibria and endemic equilibrium) which is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulation results are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Mathematical Analysis of SIR Epidemic Model with Piecewise Infection Rate and Control Strategies

The limitation of contact between susceptible and infected individuals plays an important role in decreasing the transmission of infectious diseases. Prevention and control strategies contribute to minimizing the transmission rate. In this paper, we propose SIR epidemic model with delayed control strategies, in which delay describes the response and effect time. We study the dynamic properties of the epidemic model from three aspects: steady states, stability and bifurcation. By eliminating the existence of limit cycles, we establish the global stability of the endemic equilibrium, when the delay is ignored. Further, we find that the delayed effect on the infection rate does not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, but it can destabilize the endemic equilibrium and bring Hopf bifurcation. Theoretical results show that the prevention and control strategies can effectively reduce the final number of infected individuals in the population. Numerical results corroborate the theoretical ones.     

Dynamical behavior of a delay virus dynamics model with CTL immune response

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a virus dynamics model with CTL immune response and time delay is studied. Time delay is used to describe the time between the infected cell and the emission of viral particles on a cellular level. The effect of time delay on stability of the equilibria of the CTL immune response model has been studied and sufficient criteria for local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium are given. Some conditions for Hopf bifurcation around immune-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium to occur are also obtained by using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulation with some hypothetical sets of data has been done to support the analytical findings.     

A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF A VACCINATION MODEL OF HIV/AIDS WITH STAGED PROGRESSION AND AMELIORATION

An epidemic vaccination model with multiple stages of infection is presented and analyzed. The model allows infected individuals to move from advanced stages of infection back to less advanced stages of infection. A threshold parameter which determines the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium is found. The existence and stability of endemic equilibrium for 2-dimensional phase space are analyzed. At the same time, we put forward an optimal vaccine efficacy.     

Pathogen coexistence induced by saturating contact rates

In this paper, a two-strain epidemic model with saturating contact rates is considered. It is shown that if the social activity of infected individuals does not vary with strains, then the competitive exclusion principle holds; if the social activity of infected individuals varies with different strains, the coexistence of pathogens is possible under a certain condition which involves the invasion reproduction numbers. The stability of the dominance equilibria and coexistence equilibrium is also examined. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

具有媒体饱和效应影响的时滞SIS模型研究

媒体报道对疾病的预防和控制有着重要的作用,其可以减少人们感染疾病的机会.通过建立具有媒体饱和的传染病时滞模型来刻画媒体报道对感染率的影响,首先计算出无病平衡点和当R_01时存在唯一的地方病平衡点;其次,分析了平衡点的稳定性,并得到当参数满足一定条件时,时滞τ超过临界值τ_0,地方病平衡点处会出现Hopf分支;最后,通过数值模拟来验证理论分析.     

一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被传染的易感者一部分经过一段潜伏期后才具有传染性,而另一部分被感染的易感者直接成为传染者,建立了一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型,得到了确定疾病是否成为地方病的基本再生数以及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.     

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.     

具有垂直传染的年龄结构SEIR流行病模型的稳定性

本文讨论了一类具有垂直传染的年龄结构SEIR 流行病模型,运用有界线性算子半群理论证明了模型本身非负解的存在唯一性.运用微分方程及积分方程中的理论和方法, 研究了该模型平衡点的稳定性,得到了无病平衡点与地方病平衡点的稳定性条件.     

一类具有时滞的流行病模型分析

讨论了一类带有时滞的SE IS流行病模型,并讨论了阈值、平衡点和稳定性.模型是一个具有确定潜伏期的时滞微分方程模型,在这里我们得到了各类平衡点存在条件的阈值R0;当R0<1时,只有无病平衡点P0,且是全局渐近稳定的;当R0>1时,除无病平衡点外还存在唯一的地方病平衡点Pe,且该平衡点是绝对稳定的.     

Modelling and analysis of the effects of malnutrition in the spread of cholera

Although cholera has existed for ages, it has continued to plague many parts of the world. In this study, a deterministic model for cholera in a community is presented and rigorously analysed in order to determine the effects of malnutrition in the spread of the disease. The important mathematical features of the cholera model are thoroughly investigated. The epidemic threshold known as the basic reproductive number and equilibria for the model are determined, and stabilities are investigated. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is determined using centre manifold theory and conditions for its global stability are derived using a suitable Lyapunov function. Numerical simulations suggest that an increase in susceptibility to cholera due to malnutrition results in an increase in the number of cholera infected individuals in a community. The results suggest that nutritional issues should be addressed in impoverished communities affected by cholera in order to reduce the burden of the disease.     

Global stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type II functional response

In this paper, a delayed eco‐epidemiological model with Holling type II functional response is investigated. By analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the disease‐free equilibrium, the susceptible predator‐free equilibrium and the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium are established, respectively. By means of Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the endemic‐coexistence equilibrium, the disease‐free equilibrium, the susceptible predator‐free equilibrium and the predator‐extinction equilibrium of the system, respectively. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类带有一般接触率和常数输入的流行病模型的全局分析

借助极限系统理论和构造适当的Liapunov函数,对带有一般接触率和常数输入的SIR型和SIRS型传染病模型进行讨论．当无染病者输入时,地方病平衡点存在的阈值被找到A·D2对相应的SIR模型,关于无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性均得到充要条件;对相应的SIRS模型,得到无病平衡点和地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．当有染病者输入时,模型不存在无病平衡点．对相应的SIR模型,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;对相应的SIRS模型,得到地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．     

A SIRS epidemic model with infection-age dependence

Based on J. Mena-Lorca and H.W. Hethcote's epidemic model, a SIRS epidemic model with infection-age-dependent infectivity and general nonlinear contact rate is formulated. Under general conditions, the unique existence of its global positive solutions is obtained. Moreover, under more general assumptions than the existing, the existence and asymptotical stability of its equilibria are discussed. In the end, the condition on the stability of endemic equilibrium is verified by a special model.     

Dynamics of an age‐structured host‐vector model for malaria transmission

In this paper, we propose a host‐vector model for malaria transmission by incorporating infection age in the infected host population and nonlinear incidence for transmission from infectious vectors to susceptible hosts. One novelty of the model is that the recovered hosts only have temporary immunity and another is that successfully recovered infected hosts may become susceptible immediately. Firstly, the existence and local stability of equilibria is studied. Secondly, rigorous mathematical analyses on technical materials and necessary arguments, including asymptotic smoothness and uniform persistence of the system, are given. Thirdly, by applying the fluctuation lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals, the threshold dynamics of the model for a special case were established. Roughly speaking, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and otherwise the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when no reinfection occurs. It is shown that the infection age and nonlinear incidence not only impact on the basic reproduction number but also could affect the values of the endemic steady state. Numerical simulations were performed to support the theoretical results.     

Stability and bifurcation in epidemic models describing the transmission of toxoplasmosis in human and cat populations

A five‐dimensional ordinary differential equation model describing the transmission of Toxoplamosis gondii disease between human and cat populations is studied in this paper. Self‐diffusion modeling the spatial dynamics of the T. gondii disease is incorporated in the ordinary differential equation model. The normalized version of both models where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and controlled individuals in the total population are analyzed. The main results presented herein are that the ODE model undergoes a trans‐critical bifurcation, the system has no periodic orbits inside the positive octant, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when we restrict the model to inside of the first octant. Furthermore, a local linear stability analysis for the spatially homogeneous equilibrium points of the reaction diffusion model is carried out, and the global stability of both the disease‐free and endemic equilibria are established for the reaction–diffusion system when restricted to inside of the first octant. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to support our theoretical results and to predict some scenarios about the spread of the disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of periodic solutions in an eco-epidemiological model with saturation incidence and latency delay

In the present work, a mathematical model of predator–prey ecological interaction with infected prey is investigated. A saturation incidence function is used to model the behavioral change of the susceptible individuals when their number increases or due to the crowding effect of the infected individuals [V. Capasso, G. Serio, A generalization of the Kermack–McKendrick deterministic epidemic model, Math. Biosci. 42 (1978) 41–61]. Stability criteria for the infection-free and the endemic equilibria are deduced in terms of system parameters. The basic model is then modified to incorporate a time delay, describing a latency period. Stability and bifurcation analysis of the resulting delay differential equation model is carried out and ranges of the delay inducing stability and as well as instability for the system are found. Finally, a stability analysis of the bifurcating solutions is performed and the criteria for subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcation derived. The existence of a delay interval that preserves the stability of periodic orbits is demonstrated. The analysis emphasizes the importance of differential predation and a latency period in controlling disease dynamics.