Topological properties of stock networks based on minimal spanning tree and random matrix theory in financial time series

We investigated the topological properties of stock networks constructed by a minimal spanning tree. We compared the original stock network with the estimated network; the original network is obtained by the actual stock returns, while the estimated network is the correlation matrix created by random matrix theory. We found that the consistency between the two networks increases as more eigenvalues are considered. In addition, we suggested that the largest eigenvalue has a significant influence on the formation of stock networks.     

Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.     

Agent-based approach for generation of a money-centered star network

The history of trade is a progression from a pure barter system. A medium of exchange emerges autonomously in the market, a position currently occupied by money. We investigate an agent-based computational economics model consisting of interacting agents considering distinguishable properties of commodities which represent salability. We also analyze the properties of the commodity network using a spanning tree. We find that the “storage fee” is more crucial than “demand” in determining which commodity is used as a medium of exchange.     

Fluctuations of trading volume in a stock market

We consider the probability distribution function of the trading volume and the volume changes in the Korean stock market. The probability distribution function of the trading volume shows double peaks and follows a power law, P(V/〈V〉)∼(V/〈V〉)^−α at the tail part of the distribution with α=4.15(4) for the KOSPI (Korea composite Stock Price Index) and α=4.22(2) for the KOSDAQ (Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotations), where V is the trading volume and 〈V〉 is the monthly average value of the trading volume. The second peaks originate from the increasing trends of the average volume. The probability distribution function of the volume changes also follows a power law, , where V_r=V(t)−V(t−T) and T is a time lag. The exponents β depend on the time lag T. We observe that the exponents β for the KOSDAQ are larger than those for the KOSPI.     

Statistical properties of world investment networks

We have performed a detailed investigation on the world investment networks constructed from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) data of the International Monetary Fund, ranging from 2001 to 2006. The distributions of degrees and node strengths are scale-free. The weight distributions can be well modeled by the Weibull distribution. The maximum flow spanning trees of the world investment networks possess two universal allometric scaling relations, independent of time and the investment type. The topological scaling exponent is 1.17±0.02 and the flow scaling exponent is 1.03±0.01.     

Multifractal properties of the Indian financial market

We investigate the multifractal properties of the logarithmic returns of the Indian financial indices (BSE & NSE) by applying the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The results are compared with that of the US S&P 500 index. Numerically we find that qth-order generalized Hurst exponents h(q) and τ(q) change with the moments q. The nonlinear dependence of these scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum f(α) show that the returns possess multifractality. By comparing the MF-DFA results of the original series to those for the shuffled series, we find that the multifractality is due to the contributions of long-range correlations as well as the broad probability density function. The financial markets studied here are compared with the Binomial Multifractal Model (BMFM) and have a smaller multifractal strength than the BMFM.     

Spectral methods and cluster structure in correlation-based networks

We investigate how in complex systems the eigenpairs of the matrices derived from the correlations of multichannel observations reflect the cluster structure of the underlying networks. For this we use daily return data from the NYSE and focus specifically on the spectral properties of weight W_ij=|C|_ij−δ_ij and diffusion matrices D_ij=W_ij/s_j−δ_ij, where C_ij is the correlation matrix and s_i=∑_jW_ij the strength of node j. The eigenvalues (and corresponding eigenvectors) of the weight matrix are ranked in descending order. As in the earlier observations, the first eigenvector stands for a measure of the market correlations. Its components are, to first approximation, equal to the strengths of the nodes and there is a second order, roughly linear, correction. The high ranking eigenvectors, excluding the highest ranking one, are usually assigned to market sectors and industrial branches. Our study shows that both for weight and diffusion matrices the eigenpair analysis is not capable of easily deducing the cluster structure of the network without a priori knowledge. In addition we have studied the clustering of stocks using the asset graph approach with and without spectrum based noise filtering. It turns out that asset graphs are quite insensitive to noise and there is no sharp percolation transition as a function of the ratio of bonds included, thus no natural threshold value for that ratio seems to exist. We suggest that these observations can be of use for other correlation based networks as well.     

The effects of behavioral and structural assumptions in artificial stock market

Recent literature has developed the conjecture that important statistical features of stock price series, such as the fat tails phenomenon, may depend mainly on the market microstructure. This conjecture motivated us to investigate the roles of both the market microstructure and agent behavior with respect to high-frequency returns and daily returns. We developed two simple models to investigate this issue. The first one is a stochastic model with a clearing house microstructure and a population of zero-intelligence agents. The second one has more behavioral assumptions based on Minority Game and also has a clearing house microstructure. With the first model we found that a characteristic of the clearing house microstructure, namely the clearing frequency, can explain fat tail, excess volatility and autocorrelation phenomena of high-frequency returns. However, this feature does not cause the same phenomena in daily returns. So the Stylized Facts of daily returns depend mainly on the agents’ behavior. With the second model we investigated the effects of behavioral assumptions on daily returns. Our study implicates that the aspects which are responsible for generating the stylized facts of high-frequency returns and daily returns are different.     

Correlations in commodity markets

In this paper we analyzed dependencies in commodity markets, investigating correlations of future contracts for commodities over the period 1998.09.01-2007.12.14. We constructed a minimal spanning tree based on the correlation matrix. The tree provides evidence for sector clusterization of investigated contracts. We also studied dynamical properties of commodity dependencies. It turned out that the market was constantly getting more correlated within the investigated period, although the increase of correlation was distributed non-uniformly among all contracts, and depended on contracts branches.     

A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency

In this paper, the multifractality degree in a collection of developed and emerging stock market indices is evaluated. Empirical results suggest that the multifractality degree can be used as a quantifier to characterize the stage of market development of world stock indices. We develop a model to test the relationship between the stage of market development and the multifractality degree and find robust evidence that the relationship is negative, i.e., higher multifractality is associated with a less developed market. Thus, an inefficiency ranking can be derived from multifractal analysis. Finally, a link with previous volatility time series results is established.     

Probability of large movements in financial markets

Based on empirical financial time series, we show that the “silence-breaking” probability follows a super-universal power law: the probability of observing a large movement is inversely proportional to the length of the on-going low-variability period. Such a scaling law has been previously predicted theoretically [R. Kitt, J. Kalda, Physica A 353 (2005) 480], assuming that the length-distribution of the low-variability periods follows a multi-scaling power law.     

Empirical regularities of opening call auction in Chinese stock market

We study the statistical regularities of an opening call auction using the ultra-high-frequency data of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. The distribution of the relative price, defined as the relative difference between the order price in the opening call auction and the closing price on the last trading day, is asymmetric and that the distribution displays a sharp peak at the zero relative price and a relatively wide peak at the negative relative price. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is adopted to investigate the long-term memory of relative order prices. We further study the statistical regularities of order sizes in the opening call auction, and observe a phenomenon of number preference, known as order size clustering. The probability density function (PDF) of order sizes could be well fitted by a q-Gamma function, and the long-term memory also exists in order sizes. In addition, both the average volume and the average number of orders decrease exponentially with the price level away from the best bid or ask price level in the limit-order book (LOB) established immediately after the opening call auction, and a price clustering phenomenon is observed.     

Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market

Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction, cool period and continuous auction. The distributions of relative logarithmic prices against reference prices in the three time periods are qualitatively the same with quantitative discrepancies. The order placement behavior is asymmetric between buyers and sellers and between the inside-the-book orders and outside-the-book orders. In addition, the conditional distributions of relative prices in the continuous auction are independent of the bid-ask spread and volatility. These findings are crucial to build an empirical behavioral microscopic model based on order flows for Chinese stocks.     

Effect of edge removal on topological and functional robustness of complex networks

We study the robustness of several network models subject to edge removal. The robustness is measured by the statistics of network breakdowns, where a breakdown is defined as the destroying of the total connectedness of a network, rather than the disappearance of the giant component. We introduce a simple traffic dynamics as the function of a network topology, and the total connectedness can be destroyed in the sense of either the topology or the function. The overall effect of the topological breakdown and the functional breakdown, as well as the relative importance of the topological robustness and the functional robustness, are studied under two edge removal strategies.     

Peculiar statistical properties of Chinese stock indices in bull and bear market phases

Chinese stock markets have experienced an extraordinary bull market since Jan 2006, which attracted global eyes. We investigate the statistical properties of the indices’ log-return r(t) for the bull market (Jan 2006-Oct 2007) and the previous bear market (Jan 2001-Dec 2005). Here we report three peculiar features of r(t): (i) the cumulative distribution function curve of r(t) in the bull market is similar to that in the bear market; (ii) the autocorrelation function of r(t) in the bull market has a stronger negative correlation and a shorter correlation time than that in the bear market; (iii) the bull market shows stronger long-term correlation than the bear market. This work has relevance to understanding novel statistical properties in economic systems.     

Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.     

Edge-based-attack induced cascading failures on scale-free networks

Most previous existing works on cascading failures only focused on attacks on nodes rather than on edges. In this paper, we discuss the response of scale-free networks subject to two different attacks on edges during cascading propagation, i.e., edge removal by either the descending or ascending order of the loads. Adopting a cascading model with a breakdown probability p of an overload edge and the initial load (k_ik_j)^α of an edge ij, where k_i and k_j are the degrees of the nodes connected by the edge ij and α is a tunable parameter, we investigate the effects of two attacks for the robustness of Barabási-Albert (BA) scale-free networks against cascading failures. In the case of α<1, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding that BA scale-free networks are more sensitive to attacks on the edges with the lowest loads than the ones with the highest loads, not relating to the breakdown probability. In addition, the same effect of two attacks in the case of α=1 may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in many real-life networks. We then confirm by the theoretical analysis these results observed in simulations.     

Cross-correlation dynamics in financial time series

The dynamics of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix of multivariate financial time series is explored by examination of the eigenvalue spectrum over sliding time windows. Empirical results for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 indices reveal that the dynamics of the small eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix, over these time windows, oppose those of the largest eigenvalue. This behaviour is shown to be independent of the size of the time window and the number of stocks examined.A basic one-factor model is then proposed, which captures the main dynamical features of the eigenvalue spectrum of the empirical data. Through the addition of perturbations to the one-factor model, (leading to a ‘market plus sectors’ model), additional sectoral features are added, resulting in an Inverse Participation Ratio comparable to that found for empirical data. By partitioning the eigenvalue time series, we then show that negative index returns, (drawdowns), are associated with periods where the largest eigenvalue is greatest, while positive index returns, (drawups), are associated with periods where the largest eigenvalue is smallest. The study of correlation dynamics provides some insight on the collective behaviour of traders with varying strategies.     

English and Chinese languages as weighted complex networks

In this paper, we analyze statistical properties of English and Chinese written human language within the framework of weighted complex networks. The two language networks are based on an English novel and a Chinese biography, respectively, and both of the networks are constructed in the same way. By comparing the intensity and density of connections between the two networks, we find that high weight connections in Chinese language networks prevail more than those in English language networks. Furthermore, some of the topological and weighted quantities are compared. The results display some differences in the structural organizations between the two language networks. These observations indicate that the two languages may have different linguistic mechanisms and different combinatorial natures.     

Network analysis of an online community

We empirically study various network properties of an online community. The numbers of articles written by each user to the bulletin boards of each of the others are used to construct the directed and weighted network B, and gifting behaviors among users are also kept track of, to build the network G which is again directed and weighted. Detailed analysis reveals that B and G have very different network properties. In particular, whereas B contains many more bidirectional links than directed arcs, G shows the opposite characteristic. The number of writings on bulletin boards is found to decay with the distance from the hub vertex, which reflects the structural assortativeness in B. We also observe that the activities in writings and purchases are negatively correlated with each other for highly active users in B.