A reduced form model for ESO valuation

In this paper we extend a reduced form model for the valuation of employee share options (ESOs) to incorporate employee departure, and company takeover. We also allow for performance linked vesting and other exotic features specific to ESOs. We clarify the assumptions underlying the reduced form model, and discuss their implications. We analyze the probabilistic structure of the model which includes an explicit characterization of the set of equivalent martingale measures, as well as the computation of the variance optimal martingale measure and the minimal martingale measure. Moreover, we deduce an additive decomposition of the relative entropy. Particular ESO specifications are studied emphasizing different aspects of the proposed framework. In this context, we also provide strict no-arbitrage bounds for ESO prices by applying optimal stopping. Furthermore, possible limitations of the proposed model are explored by examining departures from the crucial assumptions of no-arbitrage, i.e. by considering the effects of the employee having inside information.     

Valuing executive stock options: A quadratic approximation

This paper develops a continuous-time model for valuing executive stock options (ESOs) with features of early exercise, delayed vesting and forfeiture. Applying the quadratic approximation established for valuing American options into ESOs, we obtain an explicit formula for the fair ESO value at its grant date. We show that the approximation formula is consistent with the exact results for two special cases either with no dividend or infinite maturity, and also that the perpetual value for the latter case gives an upper bound of the ESO value. To see the performance of the formula, we numerically examine it with benchmark results generated by a binomial-tree model for some particular cases. Numerical experiments show that there is a complementary relation between the vesting and trading periods with respect to exit rate of ESO holders.     

The discontinuous Galerkin method for discretely observed Asian options

Asian options represent an important subclass of the path-dependent contracts that are identified by payoff depending on the average of the underlying asset prices over the prespecified period of option lifetime. Commonly, this average is observed at discrete dates, and also, early exercise features can be admitted. As a result, analytical pricing formulae are not always available. Therefore, some form of a numerical approximation is essential for efficient option valuation. In this paper, we study a PDE model for pricing discretely observed arithmetic Asian options with fixed as well as floating strike for both European and American exercise features. The pricing equation for such options is similar to the Black-Scholes equation with 1 underlying asset, and the corresponding average appears only in the jump conditions across the sampling dates. The objective of the paper is to present the comprehensive methodological concept that forms and improves the valuation process. We employ a robust numerical procedure based on the discontinuous Galerkin approach arising from the piecewise polynomial generally discontinuous approximations. This technique enables a simple treatment of discrete sampling by incorporation of jump conditions at each monitoring date. Moreover, an American early exercise constraint is directly handled as an additional nonlinear source term in the pricing equation. The proposed solving procedure is accompanied by an empirical study with practical results compared to reference values.     

Does stock return predictability affect ESO fair value?

Executive Stock Options (ESOs) are modified American options that cannot be valued using standard methods. With a few exceptions, the literature has discussed the ESO fair value by assuming unpredictable stock returns which are not supported by the available empirical evidence. In this paper we obtain the fair value of American ESOs when stock returns are predictable and, specifically, driven by the trending Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process of Lo and Wang (1995). We solve the executive’s portfolio allocation problem for a simple buy-and-hold strategy when his wealth can be distributed between a risk-free asset and a market portfolio. This problem is jointly solved with the executive’s optimal exercise policy. We find that executives tend to wait longer the higher the predictability, independently of the composition of executive’s asset menu. We have also analyzed the implications under the FAS123R proposals for the ESO fair value and found that, even for low autocorrelations, there is a meaningful mispricing when unpredictable returns are erroneously assumed.     

Pricing currency options under two-factor Markov-modulated stochastic volatility models

This article investigates the valuation of currency options when the dynamic of the spot Foreign Exchange (FX) rate is governed by a two-factor Markov-modulated stochastic volatility model, with the first stochastic volatility component driven by a lognormal diffusion process and the second independent stochastic volatility component driven by a continuous-time finite-state Markov chain model. The states of the Markov chain can be interpreted as the states of an economy. We employ the regime-switching Esscher transform to determine a martingale pricing measure for valuing currency options under the incomplete market setting. We consider the valuation of the European-style and American-style currency options. In the case of American options, we provide a decomposition result for the American option price into the sum of its European counterpart and the early exercise premium. Numerical results are included.     

Are we using the wrong letters? An analysis of executive stock option Greeks

Greek letters, in particular delta and vega based on the Black–Scholes model (BS), have been widely used to estimate the sensitivity of CEO wealth to changes in stock price (delta) and stock return volatility (vega) and to evaluate the executive stock options (ESOs) granted on the basis of performance and risk. However, the BS model does not take into account the main features of ESOs and therefore the delta and vega values it produces are not valid. The Cvitanic–Wiener–Zapatero model (CWZ) is an alternative model to Black–Scholes for valuing ESOs. It has a closed formula and considers the main features of ESOs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis to show that research on option-based compensation and its risk-taking effects is not robust in ESO pricing models. The sensitivity analysis consists of comparing the impact of the common parameters of the BS and CWZ models, as well as the effect of the specific parameters of the CWZ model, on the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock price and stock volatility. Additionally, using panel data methodology, we develop an empirical analysis to illustrate the influence of stock return volatility and different corporate policies on both CEO wealth sensitivities.     

Generalised soft binomial American real option pricing model (fuzzy–stochastic approach)

The stochastic discrete binomial models and continuous models are usually applied in option valuation. Valuation of the real American options is solved usually by the numerical procedures. Therefore, binomial model is suitable approach for appraising the options of American type. However, there is not in several situations especially in real option methodology application at to disposal input data of required quality. Two aspects of input data uncertainty should be distinguished; risk (stochastic) and vagueness (fuzzy). Traditionally, input data are in a form of real (crisp) numbers or crisp-stochastic distribution function. Therefore, hybrid models, combination of risk and vagueness could be useful approach in option valuation. Generalised hybrid fuzzy–stochastic binomial American real option model under fuzzy numbers (T-numbers) and Decomposition principle is proposed and described. Input data (up index, down index, growth rate, initial underlying asset price, exercise price and risk-free rate) are in a form of fuzzy numbers and result, possibility-expected option value is also determined vaguely as a fuzzy set. Illustrative example of equity valuation as an American real call option is presented.     

The early exercise region for Bermudan options on two underlyings

This paper investigates the early exercise region for Bermudan options on two underlying assets. We present a set of analytical validation results for the early exercise region which can be used as a means of validating pricing techniques. When all strike prices are identical we show the existence of an intersection point such that for any asset price pair below this point early exercise is always optimal. We develop an approximation to this point in the two asset put case. When the strike prices are not all equal, we show that three separate cases exist for the early exercise region. For a Bermudan put on two assets we present these cases and show that there exists a critical point in which the boundaries of the two asset early exercise region bifurcate. Comparisons are drawn between the Bermudan results presented and the corresponding American option results.     

Valuing finite-lived Russian options

This paper deals with the valuation of the Russian option with finite time horizon in the framework of the Black–Scholes–Merton model. On the basis of the PDE approach to a parabolic free boundary problem, we derive Laplace transforms of the option value, the early exercise boundary and some hedging parameters. Using Abelian theorems of Laplace transforms, we characterize the early exercise boundary at a time to close to expiration as well as the well-known perpetual case in a unified way. Furthermore, we obtain a symmetric relation in the perpetual early exercise boundary. Combining the Gaver–Stehfest inversion method and the Newton method, we develop a fast algorithm for computing both the option value and the early exercise boundary in the finite time horizon.     

Calibration of a basket option model applied to company valuation

Applying real options thinking to company valuation seems theoretically and intuitively appealing. However, the real option analogy of a single European option as well as the compound option proxy perform poorly when applied to company valuation. We therefore suggest to rework the building blocks of real option applications to corporate valuation.  We introduce a framework to delineate the distribution of the underlying asset in the risk neutral world, which is important in order to value any derivative. This is achieved by an algorithm to calibrate a basket option model using real world data of observed share prices. The fitting takes account of the class of stable distributions. The index of stability of asymmetric α stable distribution serves as an over-all parameter to characterise the specific distribution.     

Perpetual Options on Multiple Underlyings

Abstract

We study three classes of perpetual option with multiple uncertainties and American-style exercise boundaries, using a partial differential equation-based approach. A combination of accurate numerical techniques and asymptotic analyses is implemented, with each approach informing and confirming the other. The first two examples we study are a put basket option and a call basket option, both involving two stochastic underlying assets, whilst the third is a (novel) class of real option linked to stochastic demand and costs (the details of the modelling for this are described in the paper). The Appendix addresses the issue of pricing American-style perpetual options involving (just) one stochastic underlying, but in which the volatility is also modelled stochastically, using the Heston (1993) framework.     

Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach

In this paper, we use the market asset disclaimer assumption and develop a binomial lattice based real options model to include cash flow interdependencies between multi-stage information technology (IT) investments. Using a simple two-stage IT investment problem with interdependent cash flows, we apply the binomial lattice based real options model to obtain combined valuation of the two-stage IT investment. In addition to investment valuation, our experience with the two-stage IT investment valuation suggests that the binomial lattice based real options model provides a powerful decision aid tool for appropriate timing, delaying and abandoning of the second-stage IT investment.     

Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil

In this paper, we consider investments in eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. For such projects, we discuss real options valuation in the place conventional methods such as IRR or NPV, possibly with CAPM. Traditionally, real options valuation assumes complete markets and neglects market imperfections. Yet, market frictions, such as transaction costs, interest rate spreads, and restricted short positions, can play an important role. We extend real options valuation to allow incomplete and imperfect markets. The value is obtained as a competitive price, given markets of competing investment opportunities, such as real and financial assets. Under perfect and complete markets, such valuation method is consistent with conventional real options theory. Stochastic programming and standard software is used for valuation of eucalyptus plantations. We estimate the underlying interdependent diffusion processes of stock market, interest rates, exchange rates and pulpwood price, and derive novel expressions of stochastic integrals to be employed in scenario generation for discrete time stochastic programming.     

On the explicit evaluation of the Geometric Asian options in stochastic volatility models with jumps

In the present paper we provide a semiexplicit valuation formula for Geometric Asian options, with fixed and floating strike under continuous monitoring, when the underlying stock price process exhibits both stochastic volatility and jumps. More precisely, we shall work in the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) model framework. We shall provide some numerical illustrations of the results obtained.     

Time Charters with Purchase Options in Shipping: Valuation and Risk Management

Abstract

The article studies the valuation and optimal management of Time Charters with Purchase Options (T/C–POPs), which is a specific type of asset lease with embedded options that is common in shipping markets. T/C–POPs are economically significant and sometimes account for more than half of the stock market value of listed shipping companies.

The main source of risk in markets for maritime transportation is the freight rate, and we therefore specify a single-factor continuous time model for the dynamic evolution of freight rates that allows us to price a wide variety of freight rate-related derivatives including various forms of T/C–POPs using contingent claims valuation techniques. Our model allows for the derivation of closed valuation formulas for some simple freight rate derivatives, whereas the more complex ones are analysed using numerical (finite difference) procedures. We accompany our theoretical results with illustrative numerical examples as we proceed.     

Numerical valuation of discrete double barrier options

In the present paper we explore the problem for pricing discrete barrier options utilizing the Black-Scholes model for the random movement of the asset price. We postulate the problem as a path integral calculation by choosing approach that is similar to the quadrature method. Thus, the problem is reduced to the estimation of a multi-dimensional integral whose dimension corresponds to the number of the monitoring dates.We propose a fast and accurate numerical algorithm for its valuation. Our results for pricing discretely monitored one and double barrier options are in agreement with those obtained by other numerical and analytical methods in Finance and literature. A desired level of accuracy is very fast achieved for values of the underlying asset close to the strike price or the barriers.The method has a simple computer implementation and it permits observing the entire life of the option.     

Valuation of life insurance surrender and exchange options

In this paper I analyze two American-type options related to life and pension insurance contract. I use Monte Carlo simulations combined with the Longstaff and Schwartz approach for the valuation of American options to find the value of a typical surrender option. I find that the values may be much lower than previously indicated. This reduction of value is due to a different treatment of bonuses, limiting the customers’ ability to forecast the return of their policies. The numerical results show that the value may be higher than the corresponding surrender option.     

A NUMERICAL METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL EXERCISE PRICE TO AMERICAN OPTIONS

American Options can be exercised prior to the date of expiration,the valuation of American options then constitutes a free boundary value problem.How to determine the free boundary,i.e. the optimal exercise price,is a key problem.In this paper,a nonlinear equation is given.The free boundary can be obtained by solving the nonlinear equation and the numerical results are better.     

Options to expand and to contract in combination

This work presents a real options approach to the valuation of multiple investment projects, focusing on the case of option to expand and/or to contract. Proper valuation formulas are obtained by solving Black–Scholes PDE and the impact of strategic interaction among multiple options is studied.     

Analytic solution for American barrier options with two barriers

This paper concerns American barrier options with two barriers. Standard American Options are difficult to price but there exist good numerical or analytical approximation methods. The situation is different for American barrier options. These options cease to exist or come into being if some price barrier is hit during the option's life. The paper studies analytic valuation of American barrier options with two barriers where the barriers become active by turns. In this paper, analytic valuation formulas for these options are derived by using both constant and exponential barriers for optimal early exercise policies.