An FFT Approach to Price Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit in Variable Annuities under a Regime-Switching Model

This paper considers the valuation of guaranteed minimum death benefit in variable annuities under a regime-switching model. More specifically, the risk-free interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of the reference investment fund are modulated by a continuous-time, finite-state, observable Markov chain. A regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to select an equivalent martingale measure in the incomplete financial market. Inverse Fourier transform is used to derive an analytical pricing formula for the embedded option in variable annuity with guaranteed minimum death benefit. To calculate the fair guarantee charge, fast Fourier transform approach is applied. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the practical implementation and the relationship between the fair guarantee charges and other parameters.     

Numerical solutions of quantile hedging for guaranteed minimum death benefits under a regime-switching jump-diffusion formulation

This work develops numerical approximation methods for quantile hedging involving mortality components for contingent claims in incomplete markets, in which guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDBs) could not be perfectly hedged. A regime-switching jump-diffusion model is used to delineate the dynamic system and the hedging function for GMDBs, where the switching is represented by a continuous-time Markov chain. Using Markov chain approximation techniques, a discrete-time controlled Markov chain with two component is constructed. Under simple conditions, the convergence of the approximation to the value function is established. Examples of quantile hedging model for guaranteed minimum death benefits under linear jumps and general jumps are also presented.     

Optimal management of DC pension plan in a stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility framework

This paper investigates an optimal investment strategy of DC pension plan in a stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility framework. We apply an affine model including the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) model and the Vasicek mode to characterize the interest rate while the stock price is given by the Heston’s stochastic volatility (SV) model. The pension manager can invest in cash, bond and stock in the financial market. Thus, the wealth of the pension fund is influenced by the financial risks in the market and the stochastic contribution from the fund participant. The goal of the fund manager is, coping with the contribution rate, to maximize the expectation of the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility of the terminal value of the pension fund over a guarantee which serves as an annuity after retirement. We first transform the problem into a single investment problem, then derive an explicit solution via the stochastic programming method. Finally, the numerical analysis is given to show the impact of financial parameters on the optimal strategies.     

Time-consistent investment-proportional reinsurance strategy with random coefficients for mean–variance insurers

In this study, we consider an insurer who manages her underlying risk by purchasing proportional reinsurance and investing in a financial market consisting of a risk-free bond and a risky asset. The objective of the insurer is to identify an investment–reinsurance strategy that minimizes the mean–variance cost function. We obtain a time-consistent open-loop equilibrium strategy and the corresponding efficient frontier in explicit form using two systems of backward stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we apply our results to Vasiček’s stochastic interest rate model and Heston’s stochastic volatility model. In both cases, we obtain a closed-form solution.     

Quantile hedging for guaranteed minimum death benefits

Quantile hedging for contingent claims is an active topic of research in mathematical finance. It plays a role in incomplete markets when perfect hedging is not possible. Guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDBs) are present in many variable annuity contracts, and act as a form of portfolio insurance. They cannot be perfectly hedged due to the mortality component, except in the limit as the number of contracts becomes infinitely large. In this article, we apply ideas from finance to derive quantile hedges for these products under various assumptions.     

Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes in Hilbert space with non-Gaussian stochastic volatility

We propose a non-Gaussian operator-valued extension of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility dynamics, defined as the square-root of an operator-valued Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Lévy noise and bounded drift. We derive conditions for the positive definiteness of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, where in particular we must restrict to operator-valued Lévy processes with “non-decreasing paths”. It turns out that the volatility model allows for an explicit calculation of its characteristic function, showing an affine structure. We introduce another Hilbert space-valued Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Wiener noise perturbed by this class of stochastic volatility dynamics. Under a strong commutativity condition between the covariance operator of the Wiener process and the stochastic volatility, we can derive an analytical expression for the characteristic functional of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process perturbed by stochastic volatility if the noises are independent. The case of operator-valued compound Poisson processes as driving noise in the volatility is discussed as a particular example of interest. We apply our results to futures prices in commodity markets, where we discuss our proposed stochastic volatility model in light of ambit fields.     

基于通货膨胀和最低保障的DC养老金最优投资

主要研究了通货膨胀和最低保障下的DC养老金的最优投资问题。 首先, 应用伊藤公式得到通胀折现后真实股票价格的微分方程。 然后, 在DC养老金终端财富外部保障约束下, 引入欧式看涨期权, 考虑随机通胀环境下的退休时刻终端财富期望效用最大化问题, 应用鞅方法推导退休时刻以及退休前任意时刻DC养老金最优投资策略的显式解。 最后, 应用蒙特卡洛方法对结果进行数值分析, 分析最低保障对DC养老金最优投资策略的影响。     

Valuation of guaranteed annuity options using a stochastic volatility model for equity prices

Guaranteed annuity options are options providing the right to convert a policyholder’s accumulated funds to a life annuity at a fixed rate when the policy matures. These options were a common feature in UK retirement savings contracts issued in the 1970’s and 1980’s when interest rates were high, but caused problems for insurers as the interest rates began to fall in the 1990’s. Currently, these options are frequently sold in the US and Japan as part of variable annuity products. The last decade the literature on pricing and risk management of these options evolved. Until now, for pricing these options generally a geometric Brownian motion for equity prices is assumed. However, given the long maturities of the insurance contracts a stochastic volatility model for equity prices would be more suitable. In this paper explicit expressions are derived for prices of guaranteed annuity options assuming stochastic volatility for equity prices and either a 1-factor or 2-factor Gaussian interest rate model. The results indicate that the impact of ignoring stochastic volatility can be significant.     

On a multiple credit rating migration model with stochastic interest rate

In this paper, we explore a pricing model for corporate bond accompanied with multiple credit rating migration risk and stochastic interest rate. The bond price volatility strongly depends on potentially multiple credit rating migration and stochastic change of interest rate. A free boundary problem of partial differential equation is presented, which is the equivalent transformation of the pricing model. The existence, uniqueness, and regularity for the free boundary problem are established to guarantee the rationality of the pricing model. Due to the stochastic change of interest rate, the discontinuous coefficient in the free boundary problem depends explicitly on the time variable but is convergent as time tends to infinity. Accordingly, an auxiliary free boundary problem is constructed, whose coefficient is the convergent limit of the coefficient in the original free boundary problem. With some constraint on the risk discount rate satisfied, we prove that a unique traveling wave exists in the auxiliary free boundary problem. The inductive method is adopted to fit the multiplicity of credit rating. Then we show that the solution of the original free boundary problem converges to the traveling wave in the auxiliary free boundary problem. Returning to the pricing model with multiple credit rating migration and stochastic interest rate, we conclude that the bond price profile can be captured by a traveling wave pattern coupling with a guaranteed bond price with face value equal to one at the maturity.     

Indifference fee rate for variable annuities

In this paper, we work on indifference valuation of variable annuities and give a computation method for indifference fees. We focus on the guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDB) and the guaranteed minimum living benefits (GMLB) and allow the policyholder to make withdrawals. We assume that the fees are continuously paid and that the fee rate is fixed at the beginning of the contract. Following indifference pricing theory, we define indifference fee rate for the insurer as a solution of an equation involving two stochastic control problems. Relating these problems to backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with jumps, we provide a verification theorem and give the optimal strategies associated to our control problems. From these, we derive a computation method to get indifference fee rates. We conclude our work with numerical illustrations of indifference fees sensibilities with respect to parameters.     

Robust optimal reinsurance and investment strategies for an AAI with multiple risks

This paper studies the robust optimal reinsurance and investment problem for an ambiguity averse insurer (abbr. AAI). The AAI sells insurance contracts and has access to proportional reinsurance business. The AAI can invest in a financial market consisting of four assets: one risk-free asset, one bond, one inflation protected bond and one stock, and has different levels of ambiguity aversions towards the risks. The goal of the AAI is to seek the robust optimal reinsurance and investment strategies under the worst case scenario. Here, the nominal interest rate is characterized by the Vasicek model; the inflation index is introduced according to the Fisher’s equation; and the stock price is driven by the Heston’s stochastic volatility model. The explicit forms of the robust optimal strategies and value function are derived by introducing an auxiliary robust optimal control problem and stochastic dynamic programming method. In the end of this paper, a detailed sensitivity analysis is presented to show the effects of market parameters on the robust optimal reinsurance policy, the robust optimal investment strategy and the utility loss when ignoring ambiguity.     

An optimal portfolio model with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate

We consider a portfolio optimization problem under stochastic volatility as well as stochastic interest rate on an infinite time horizon. It is assumed that risky asset prices follow geometric Brownian motion and both volatility and interest rate vary according to ergodic Markov diffusion processes and are correlated with risky asset price. We use an asymptotic method to obtain an optimal consumption and investment policy and find some characteristics of the policy depending upon the correlation between the underlying risky asset price and the stochastic interest rate.     

Time-consistent reinsurance–investment strategy for a mean–variance insurer under stochastic interest rate model and inflation risk

In this paper, we consider the time-consistent reinsurance–investment strategy under the mean–variance criterion for an insurer whose surplus process is described by a Brownian motion with drift. The insurer can transfer part of the risk to a reinsurer via proportional reinsurance or acquire new business. Moreover, stochastic interest rate and inflation risks are taken into account. To reduce the two kinds of risks, not only a risk-free asset and a risky asset, but also a zero-coupon bond and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are available to invest in for the insurer. Applying stochastic control theory, we provide and prove a verification theorem and establish the corresponding extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. By solving the extended HJB equation, we derive the time-consistent reinsurance–investment strategy as well as the corresponding value function for the mean–variance problem, explicitly. Furthermore, we formulate a precommitment mean–variance problem and obtain the corresponding time-inconsistent strategy to compare with the time-consistent strategy. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effects of model parameters on the time-consistent strategy.     

Nash equilibrium strategies for a defined contribution pension management

This paper studies the time-consistent investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan under the mean–variance criterion. Since the time horizon of a pension fund management problem is relatively long, two background risks are taken into account: the inflation risk and the salary risk. Meanwhile, there are a risk-free asset, a stock and an inflation-indexed bond available in the financial market. The extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB for short) equation of the equilibrium value function and the verification theorem corresponding to our problem are presented. The closed-form time-consistent investment strategy and the equilibrium efficient frontier are obtained by stochastic control technique. The effects of the inflation and stochastic income on the equilibrium strategy and the equilibrium efficient frontier are illustrated by mathematical and numerical analysis. Finally, we compare in detail the time-consistent results in our paper with the pre-commitment one and find the distinct properties of these two results.     

随机波动率模型下技术分析指标的一些性质(英文)

一些流行的技术指标(例如布林带,RSI,ROC等)被股市交易者广为使用.交易者将每日(小时,周,……)的实际股价作为计算某个技术指标的样本,通过观察相关频率来指导投资.技术指标的有效性已在广泛的应用中得到了验证.我们已经证明在Black-Scholes模型下,某些技术指标有许多有用的统计性质.作为更一般的情况,随机波动率模型在金融数学中得到了广泛的讨论.本文基于随机波动率模型对技术指标的统计性质进行了研究.研究结果表明,如果股票价格服从随机波动率模型,则技术指标的合理性可以得到有力的证明,从这个角度我们为技术分析奠定理论基础.     

Minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin under stochastic volatility

We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter’s price following a diffusion with stochastic volatility. Given the rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the individual who wishes to minimize the probability of going bankrupt. To solve this minimization problem, we use techniques from stochastic optimal control.     

Prices and Asymptotics for Discrete Variance Swaps

Abstract

We study the fair strike of a discrete variance swap for a general time-homogeneous stochastic volatility model. In the special cases of Heston, Hull–White and Schöbel–Zhu stochastic volatility models, we give simple explicit expressions (improving Broadie and Jain (2008a). The effect of jumps and discrete sampling on volatility and variance swaps. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 11(8), 761–797) in the case of the Heston model). We give conditions on parameters under which the fair strike of a discrete variance swap is higher or lower than that of the continuous variance swap. The interest rate and the correlation between the underlying price and its volatility are key elements in this analysis. We derive asymptotics for the discrete variance swaps and compare our results with those of Broadie and Jain (2008a. The effect of jumps and discrete sampling on volatility and variance swaps. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 11(8), 761–797), Jarrow et al. (2013. Discretely sampled variance and volatility swaps versus their continuous approximations. Finance and Stochastics, 17(2), 305–324) and Keller-Ressel and Griessler (2012. Convex order of discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation and applications to options on variance. Working paper. Retrieved from http://arxiv.org/abs/1103.2310).     

Two asset-barrier option under stochastic volatility

Financial products which depend on hitting times for two underlying assets have become very popular in the last decade. Three common examples are double-digital barrier options, two-asset barrier spread options and double lookback options. Analytical expressions for the joint distribution of the endpoints and the maximum and/or minimum values of two assets are essential in order to obtain quasi-closed form solutions for the price of these derivatives. Earlier authors derived quasi-closed form pricing expressions in the context of constant volatility and correlation. More recently solutions were provided in the presence of a common stochastic volatility factor but with restricted correlations due to the use of a method of images. In this article, we generalize this finding by allowing any value for the correlation. In this context, we derive closed-form expressions for some two-asset barrier options.     

Pricing vulnerable options under a stochastic volatility model

In this paper, we consider the pricing of vulnerable options when the underlying asset follows a stochastic volatility model. We use multiscale asymptotic analysis to derive an analytic approximation formula for the price of the vulnerable options and study the stochastic volatility effect on the option price. A numerical experiment result is presented to demonstrate our findings graphically.     

Valuation of the interest rate guarantee embedded in defined contribution pension plans

In this research, we derive the valuation formulae for a defined contribution pension plan associated with the minimum rate of return guarantees. Different from the previous studies, we work on the rate of return guarantee which is linked to the δ-year spot rate. The payoffs of interest rate guarantees can be viewed as a function of the exchange option. By employing Margrabe’s [Margrabe, W., 1978. The value of an option to exchange one asset for another. Journal of Finance 33, 177–186] option pricing approach, we derive general pricing formulae under the assumptions that the interest rate dynamics follow a single-factor HJM (1992) [Heath. D. et al., 1992. Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuation. Econometrica 60, 77–105] interest rate model and the asset prices follow a geometric Brownian motion. The volatility of the forward rates is assumed to be exponentially decaying. The formula is explicit for valuing maturity guarantee (type-I guarantee). For multi-period guarantee (type-II guarantee), the analytical formula only exists when the guaranteed rate is the one-year spot rate. The accuracy of the valuation formulae is illustrated with numerical analysis. We also investigate the effect of mortality and the sensitivity of key parameters on the value of the guarantee. We find that type-II guarantee is much more costly than the type-I guarantee, especially with a long duration policy. The closed form solution provides the advantage in valuing pension guarantees.