税企非零和博弈分析

本以献[1]和献[2]为基础，将税收检查成本及偷税成本量化后，对防止偷骗税行为进行非零和博弈分析。具体指出罚款系数的确定方法，为税务决策部门针对偷骗税行为制定合理的罚款系数提供了可操作的理论依据。     

Optimal Tax Inspection Strategy

A game-theoretical model is constructed describing the interaction of tax inspectors with taxpayers. The models allows for tax evasion and bribing of inspectors. We find the primary and secondary audit probabilities that maximize the net tax revenue for various inspector hiring strategies. The comparative revenue statics is analyzed and the optimal hiring strategy is determined as a function of the model parameters.     

Optimal Tax Enforcement with Imperfect Tax Payers and Inspectors

A mathematical model of tax enforcement is analyzed for the case when the probability of detecting tax evasion depends on the inspector's efforts. Contrary to the case with fixed inspection costs, the optimal tax enforcement strategy does not fully eliminate tax evasion. We examine how tax payers' random mistakes and the inspectors' corruptibility affect the optimal tax enforcement mechanism. We show that, contrary to the model with fixed inspection costs, corruption among inspectors reduces the optimal tax revenue.     

Mathematical models for organizing the tax service

Game-theoretical models are proposed for describing the interaction of tax inspectors and taxpayers. A return-auditing probability that maximizes net tax revenue is calculated for a model without corruption. A dynamic audit strategy is described, and it is shown to converge to the optimal model under complete information. For a model with corruption, we also calculate the optimal probability of secondary audit and carry out a comparative analysis of net tax revenue assuming various tax rates and various penalties for evasion and negligent audit. The study was partially supported by the Russian Program for Economic Studies (grant 97-3011) and Russian Foundation of Basic Research (grant 96-01-0999). Useful comments by Mikhail Alekseev, Jim Leitzel, and Francisco Marhuenda are acknowledged. Translated from Chislennye Metody i Vychislitel'nyi Eksperiment, Moscow State University, pp. 64–81, 1998.     

Personal income tax reforms: A genetic algorithm approach

Given a settled reduction in the present level of tax revenue, and by exploring a very large combinatorial space of tax structures, in this paper we employ a genetic algorithm in order to determine the ‘best’ structure of a real world personal income tax that allows for the maximisation of the redistributive effect of the tax, while preventing all taxpayers being worse off than with the present tax structure. We take Italy as a case study.     

Tax evasion and the prisoner's dilemma

This analysis expands the model of tax evasion suggested by Allingham and Sandmo (1972) to include public goods, financed by revenues from taxation and penalties. We argue that this leads to a Pareto inferior equilibrium outcome of individual declarations both in models of competitive and interdependent behaviour, thus linking the paradox to the Prisoner's Dilemma, well known from game theory. It is further claimed that a government led by utilitarian welfare standards will perpetuate tax evasion in the case of positive variable costs of detection.     

Retroactive price regulation and the fair rate of return

Excess profits taxes sometimes are used to prevent accumulation of monopolistic rent. We show that current operation of such taxes for property liability insurance does not. except by coincidence. result in an ex ante fair return on equity. Derivation of the tax threshold required to deliver a fair return is illustrated using capital asset pricing models. Implicit solutions are derived for non-insurance and insurance firms and a possible closed form solution also is presented. This tax creates incentives for avoidance by reducing the variance of the tax flows. This is a classic moral hazard problem. However adverse incentives may be reversed in a multiperiod context. We suggest that use of EPT and direct price regulation results in a system of ‘double taxation’, which likely will cause deficient returns to constituent firms.     

A Stackelberg game for the Italian tax evasion problem

Computational Management Science - In this paper, we consider the problem of tax evasion, which occurs whenever an individual or business ignores tax laws. Fighting tax evasion is the main task of...     

Investment and financing decisions in the presence of time-to-build

We study a firm’s optimal decisions on investment, default, and financing when the amount of time and the running costs for project completion are uncertain. In the presence of time-to-build, a firm makes conservative investment and financing decisions; investment is delayed, and the optimal leverage ratio is inverted U-shaped with respect to the size of the lag. Although equity holders can choose to default before the project has been completed, the default probability in the presence of time-to-build is lower than that in the absence of a lag in most cases because of the conservative investment and financing decisions. Given the lower default probability, equity holders may benefit more from debt financing in the presence of time-to-build than they would in the absence of a lag. When firms can shorten their expected time-to-build by bearing more costs, unlevered firms strive to reduce the lag more than optimally levered firms do. However, highly levered firms utilize more resources to reduce the lag than all-equity firms do because equity holders are more concerned about the possibility of default before the project’s completion.     

股权激励与公司绩效：基于调整成本

文章从调整成本角度出发,运用广义矩估计法重新审视股权激励与公司绩效之间的关系,并寻找调整成本的决定因素．在不考虑调整成本的传统模型下,公司绩效对于股权激励有显著的负向影响,但考虑调整成本后影响不再显著;在决定因素方面,股权激励的调整速度与机构投资者持股比例、高管数量以及市场价格正相关,公司绩效的调整速度与沉没成本正相关而与公司定价能力负相关．     

偷逃税监管中的马氏链分析方法

本文利用马尔柯夫链分析方法,对税收监管工作中纳税人因偷逃税款而受到罚款惩处时罚款数额的确定问题进行了统计分析,它为实际管理工作中遇到的类似决策问题提供了科学的数量基础。     

A taxing problem: The complementary use of hard and soft OR in the public sector

A review of the UK personal taxation system used a combination of hard and soft OR approaches in a complementary way. The hard OR was based on data mining to increase understanding of individual taxpayers and their changing needs within the personal tax system. The soft OR was based on soft systems methodology with two aims in mind. First, to guide the review and, secondly, as an auditable approach for collecting the views of key internal and external stakeholders. The soft and hard OR were used alongside one another, rather than one providing a contextual scheme for the other. The experience reveals that soft OR is much more than common sense and, that, used in parallel, soft and hard approaches have a powerful synergy.     

低碳经济背景下企业技术创新模式决策机制研究——基于碳税政策视角

为探究低碳经济背景下企业技术创新模式的决策机制,基于低碳技术创新的开放式创新和封闭式创新两种模式,运用演化经济学理论和方法构建企业低碳技术创新模式选择博弈模型,在策略选择的演化稳定性分析基础上,通过数值模拟演示不同决策参数和初始条件下模型的演化结果。结果表明:企业选择开放式低碳技术创新模式的前提条件是当开放式低碳技术创新策略的竞争性收益大于投入成本且系统中选择该种模式的初始企业比例达到一定水平;企业技术吸收能力、开放式低碳技术创新成本和碳税征收强度对低碳经济背景下企业技术创新模式的选择均有重要的影响;为促进企业实施开放式低碳技术创新,政府决策应将碳税征收强度保持在合理范围内,同时重视信息化平台搭建助力企业间知识交流和共享,营造企业实施开放式低碳技术创新的良好环境。     

碳税政策下生产和销售的选址问题

本文考虑碳税政策下一个生产型企业生产和销售的选址问题。消费者分布在一条直线上,运输成本是线性的,企业除承担自身产品的运输费用外还承担消费者的运输成本。本文建立了利润最大化模型,分析了利润函数的性质,给出了求解方法。通过数值实验证明了求解方法的有效性,同时得出,即使消费者分布是中心对称的,最优的选址也不一定中心对称,这纠正了人们的错觉。增加碳税可使销售点靠近自己的消费者,增加企业的费用,但不一定起到减排的作用,只有通过灵活的碳税政策才有可能达到减排的目的。     

ENTRY AND EXIT OF LABOR AND CAPITAL IN A FISHERY

ABSTRACT. Exit and entry of fishermen, as well as vessels, is modeled explicitly. If the speed of exit and entry of fishermen is less than instantaneous the wage rate varies with the fortunes of the fishing firms and affects the endogenous labor supply creating a second transmission mechanism from profits to effort. There are realistic cases where this mechanism has important effects on the stability of the dynamic system and on the effects of taxes (subsisdies) on the size of the fish stock. If labor supply depends negatively on the wage rate, the immediate effect of an increase in the tax rate is to increase effort and harvest. This condition makes it also more probable that the dynamic system is unstable. In those cases where the dynamic system is unstable the increase in the tax rate increases overexploitation not only in the short‐term but also in the long‐term.     

Group differences in broadness of values may drive dynamics of public opinion on moral issues

Here we propose the idea that the success of an argument in favor of an issue position should depend on whether the argument resonates with the audience’s values. Now consider two groups, one of which has a broader set of values than the other. We develop a mathematical model to investigate how this difference in broadness of values may drive a change on the population level towards positions in line with the more narrow set of values. The model is motivated by the empirical finding that conservative morality rests equally on moral foundations that are individualizing (harm and fairness) and binding (purity, authority, and ingroup), whereas liberal morality relies mainly on the individualizing moral foundations. The model then predicts that, under certain conditions, the whole population will tend to move towards positions on moral issues (e.g., same-sex marriage) that are supported by individualizing moral foundations.     

成长性差异、信息披露与权益资本成本

本文研究成长性差异是否以及如何影响信息披露与权益资本成本之间的关系。实证结果表明成长性差异可以显著调节信息披露与权益资本成本之间的关系,利用分组回归分析法发现,高成长性上市公司信息披露水平越高,权益资本成本越低。进一步研究发现,在高成长性样本组中,非国有控股上市公司信息披露对权益资本成本的影响相对显著,而在低成长性样本组中,国有控股上市公司信息披露对权益资本成本的影响相对显著。在采用工具变量法和两阶段最小二乘法等(2SLS)进行一系列稳健性检验之后,上述结论仍然成立。本文的研究结论为上市公司和监管机构完善信息披露制度提供一定的启示。     

Managing contribution and capital market risk in a funded public defined benefit plan: Impact of CVaR cost constraints

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager’s objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.     

Appraisals of harms and injustice trigger an eerie feeling that decreases trust in artificial intelligence systems

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more pervasive, the concern over how users can trust artificial agents is more important than ever before. In this research, we seek to understand the trust formation between humans and artificial agents from the morality and uncanny theory perspective. We conducted three studies to carefully examine the effect of two moral foundations: perceptions of harm and perceptions of injustice, as well as reported wrongdoing on uncanniness and examine the effect of uncanniness on trust in artificial agents. In Study 1, we found perceived injustice was the primary determinant of uncanniness and uncanniness had a negative effect on trust. Studies 2 and 3 extended these findings using two different scenarios of wrongful acts involving an artificial agent. In addition to explaining the contribution of moral appraisals to the feeling of uncanny, the latter studies also uncover substantial contributions of both perceived harm and perceived injustice. The results provide a foundation for establishing trust in artificial agents and designing an AI system by instilling moral values in it.

     

燃油税改革的动态一般均衡分析

建立了燃油税的动态可计算一般均衡模型,设计金融海啸后的预测模拟场景,综合分析和评价燃油税的征税效果。研究结果表明,燃油税改革实现了“费改税”,但由于纳税群体的扩大,尽管产生了显著的节能减排效果,但不利于经济增长。相比其他产业,交通运输部门,特别是航空运输部门受损较小。长期而言,劳动密集型行业将受损有所减缓。但资本密集型行业将受损更为严重。